Memeorandum


Powered by TypePad

« Take Me Out To The Ball Game | Main | This Would Be Freaking Me Out »

September 01, 2004

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451b2aa69e200d83421ca0853ef

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Thanks, Iowa:

» There's No Telling from Pattern Perception
As Instapundit and Just one Minute noted today, the Iowa Electronic Markets graph is showing an unusually close race between Kerry and Bush today bucking the trend of the last few weeks. Is it negative reaction to the RNC speeches... [Read More]

» A FLAW IN THE PRESIDENTIAL FUTURES MARKETS from Pejmanesque
The discussion can be found here. As someone who in the past has praised the forecasting ability of the futures markets, I urge others to take note, and I urge the Iowa Electronic Markets to remedy what should have been... [Read More]

» Would you buy this guy's stock? from SCSU Scholars
Just as I posted that, Instapundit noted a post by Tom Maguire on the funny behavior of the Iowa Electronics Market, where Kerry closed to even money Tuesday from 46-54 down on Monday. It's important to recognize that IEM is a very thinly traded mark... [Read More]

» DEMOCRATS REGROUP: from The Volokh Conspiracy
The Real Times has a front-page story on the Democrats regrouping after the Republican National Convention. Noting the President's double-digit poll leads, the Democrats ar... [Read More]

Comments

Paul Zrimsek

Say, isn't the CW still that Bush may do all right on Planet Gore but he's got problems in the Electoral College?

joe

i like tradesports better than IEW -- more market liquidity.

M. Simon

I like this

LA Times:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

And this is one of my faves an honest Dem site. It is fun to watch them cry as Kerry falls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


—==—

Steal this sig:

George Bush never called me “baby killer”.

There is a big difference between William Calley and John Kerry. William Calley is a proven war criminal. For John Kerry we only have his word as an officer and a gentleman.

New Soldier

What is the War Hero Afraid of?
Form 180. Release ALL the records.

The Ads: Video links

JP

Since the DNC convention, I've been following the sportsbooks and what they think of the election. I have a post here is you're interested.

Basically, it was dead even coming out of the DNC convention, but Bush has steadily been growing a lead since. In the last week (thanks to the Swifties and the RNC convention), Bush has shot up dramatically. He's at about 55% chance of winning as of today.

Thom

I checked the Iowa electronic markets at 12:02 am eastern time this morning, about an hour before the final trade was clocked, and it was at 55 for Bush and around 46.4 for Kerry. Imagine my surprise when I learned this morning that it had closed at about 50/50. Also, the number of Kerry contracts yesterday is way out of whack. Someone is obviously trying to game the market with last minute trades that will only show up on the graph of closingn prices.

JP

Since the DNC convention, I've been following the sportsbooks and what they think of the election. I have a post here is you're interested.

Basically, it was dead even coming out of the DNC convention, but Bush has steadily been growing a lead since. In the last week (thanks to the Swifties and the RNC convention), Bush has shot up dramatically. He's at about 55% chance of winning as of today.

Greg D

Thank you! I went to the site, and couldn't figure out how to get the current price.

Thom

I checked the Iowa electronic markets at 12:02 am eastern time this morning, about an hour before the final trade was clocked, and it was at 55 for Bush and around 46.4 for Kerry. Imagine my surprise when I learned this morning that it had closed at about 50/50. Also, the number of Kerry contracts yesterday is way out of whack. Someone is obviously trying to game the market with last minute trades that will only show up on the graph of closingn prices.

M. Simon

I like this

LA Times:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

And this is one of my faves an honest Dem site. It is fun to watch them cry as Kerry falls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


—==—

Steal this sig:

George Bush never called me “baby killer”.

There is a big difference between William Calley and John Kerry. William Calley is a proven war criminal. For John Kerry we only have his word as an officer and a gentleman.

New Soldier

What is the War Hero Afraid of?
Form 180. Release ALL the records.

The Ads: Video links

bob

The sad thing is Kerry keeps changing his words

betsybounds

"The "near-death, then renewal" electoral process is part of Kerry's charm, I guess."

Does this mean that the Dems think they have found themselves another Comeback Kid???

Greg D

I'd say the difference between the Iowa numbers and the TradeSports numbers is that some people think he'll repeat 2000. (Unlikely, IMHO. I think what happened in 2000 was because the press called it for Gore while polls were open in half the country, and that affected vote totals).

Pat Curley

IEM reflects CW (Conventional Wisdom). CW did not change last night, so it was obvious market rigging. I wonder if there is a way to take advantage of the people doing this; buy around 11:00 PM, sell at 11:50?

Brad DeLong

I think it's that the Monday convention did not go as well for the Republicans as the market had been thinking it would. God knows what they're going to think of Wednesday night. Zell Miller certainly drove Andrew Sullivan around the bend: he's nuttier than a fruitbat and shriller than the unnatural genetically-engineered child of Paul Krugman and Michael Moore...

TM

the unnatural genetically-engineered child of Paul Krugman and Michael Moore...

But what about the love-child of Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter? Someone should start booking panelists for Crossfire 2020.

As of Thursday AM, Kerry is up to 47%, so maybe Zell didn't sell. (Is it safe?)

Tim Fergus

The size of a market, i.e., the number of participants trading and the total dollar value of trading is an important consideration.

Small markets are easy to move. I think the Iowa Electronic Market may be too small to be a good indicator. However, they do not publish their trading volume, so there is no way to know. TradeSports, or Intrade do, and it looks like they have much more volume. But perhaps they, also are too small a market. I invite any thoughts by others on this.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Amazon





Traffic

Wilson/Plame