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September 01, 2004

Comments

Paul Zrimsek

Say, isn't the CW still that Bush may do all right on Planet Gore but he's got problems in the Electoral College?

joe

i like tradesports better than IEW -- more market liquidity.

M. Simon

I like this

LA Times:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

And this is one of my faves an honest Dem site. It is fun to watch them cry as Kerry falls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


—==—

Steal this sig:

George Bush never called me “baby killer”.

There is a big difference between William Calley and John Kerry. William Calley is a proven war criminal. For John Kerry we only have his word as an officer and a gentleman.

New Soldier

What is the War Hero Afraid of?
Form 180. Release ALL the records.

The Ads: Video links

JP

Since the DNC convention, I've been following the sportsbooks and what they think of the election. I have a post here is you're interested.

Basically, it was dead even coming out of the DNC convention, but Bush has steadily been growing a lead since. In the last week (thanks to the Swifties and the RNC convention), Bush has shot up dramatically. He's at about 55% chance of winning as of today.

Thom

I checked the Iowa electronic markets at 12:02 am eastern time this morning, about an hour before the final trade was clocked, and it was at 55 for Bush and around 46.4 for Kerry. Imagine my surprise when I learned this morning that it had closed at about 50/50. Also, the number of Kerry contracts yesterday is way out of whack. Someone is obviously trying to game the market with last minute trades that will only show up on the graph of closingn prices.

JP

Since the DNC convention, I've been following the sportsbooks and what they think of the election. I have a post here is you're interested.

Basically, it was dead even coming out of the DNC convention, but Bush has steadily been growing a lead since. In the last week (thanks to the Swifties and the RNC convention), Bush has shot up dramatically. He's at about 55% chance of winning as of today.

Greg D

Thank you! I went to the site, and couldn't figure out how to get the current price.

Thom

I checked the Iowa electronic markets at 12:02 am eastern time this morning, about an hour before the final trade was clocked, and it was at 55 for Bush and around 46.4 for Kerry. Imagine my surprise when I learned this morning that it had closed at about 50/50. Also, the number of Kerry contracts yesterday is way out of whack. Someone is obviously trying to game the market with last minute trades that will only show up on the graph of closingn prices.

M. Simon

I like this

LA Times:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

And this is one of my faves an honest Dem site. It is fun to watch them cry as Kerry falls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


—==—

Steal this sig:

George Bush never called me “baby killer”.

There is a big difference between William Calley and John Kerry. William Calley is a proven war criminal. For John Kerry we only have his word as an officer and a gentleman.

New Soldier

What is the War Hero Afraid of?
Form 180. Release ALL the records.

The Ads: Video links

bob

The sad thing is Kerry keeps changing his words

betsybounds

"The "near-death, then renewal" electoral process is part of Kerry's charm, I guess."

Does this mean that the Dems think they have found themselves another Comeback Kid???

Greg D

I'd say the difference between the Iowa numbers and the TradeSports numbers is that some people think he'll repeat 2000. (Unlikely, IMHO. I think what happened in 2000 was because the press called it for Gore while polls were open in half the country, and that affected vote totals).

Pat Curley

IEM reflects CW (Conventional Wisdom). CW did not change last night, so it was obvious market rigging. I wonder if there is a way to take advantage of the people doing this; buy around 11:00 PM, sell at 11:50?

Brad DeLong

I think it's that the Monday convention did not go as well for the Republicans as the market had been thinking it would. God knows what they're going to think of Wednesday night. Zell Miller certainly drove Andrew Sullivan around the bend: he's nuttier than a fruitbat and shriller than the unnatural genetically-engineered child of Paul Krugman and Michael Moore...

TM

the unnatural genetically-engineered child of Paul Krugman and Michael Moore...

But what about the love-child of Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter? Someone should start booking panelists for Crossfire 2020.

As of Thursday AM, Kerry is up to 47%, so maybe Zell didn't sell. (Is it safe?)

Tim Fergus

The size of a market, i.e., the number of participants trading and the total dollar value of trading is an important consideration.

Small markets are easy to move. I think the Iowa Electronic Market may be too small to be a good indicator. However, they do not publish their trading volume, so there is no way to know. TradeSports, or Intrade do, and it looks like they have much more volume. But perhaps they, also are too small a market. I invite any thoughts by others on this.

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