Third Debate - Bush Wins

OK, Bush is Kerry's daddy... or Pedro's daddy... or something. I think Bush wins the debate, and I hope the Yankees are still winning - I was flicking back and forth, so I may have missed a terrible gaffe, but what I saw was a likeable, confident Bush. On the other side, it was always raining in Kerryville - was there anything that Bush and this Administration did not do wrong? I was actually expecting Kerry to criticize Bush's choice of necktie (for the radio audience - their ties were identical).

Kerry had a brief stretch for which his debate coach must have been Dr. Kevorkian - who in the Kerry camp thought it would be a good idea for Kerry to push the assault weapons ban and affirmative action back to back? Hard luck with the order of the questions, as disgruntled white guys everywhere lock and load for Bush.

Oh, Matt Yglesias rebuted Kerry's position on assault weapons a while back.

Bush threw in the towel on the minimum wage - he can win that argument, but it must look like a long, uphill struggle.

Kerry made no sense to me with his follow-up on safer borders - retina scans are going to stop illegal border crossings in the Texas desert? What did I miss?

And, although some of the early questions were absurdly pro-Kerry, all was forgiven with Bob Schieffer's last question about how Bush and Kerry have been affected by the strong women in their lives. This was a hanging curveball for Bush, since we all love Laura. At the other podium, Kerry did not mention Teresa by name; instead, he made the pivot to his belated mom, which is always defensible, but a bit awkward for his current wife. Fine, we are sure she polls badly, but now even Kerry is running away from her? [What she said.]

When the Yankess wrap this up, I will leave the bubble and seek other reactions. But mark me down for Bush.

MORE: OK, I did hear Kerry say something puzzling about China while he was on the subject of job losses. From the transcript:

The fact is that the president had an opportunity to stand up and take on China for currency manipulation. There are companies that wanted to petition the administration. They were told: Don't even bother; we're not going to listen to it.

Oddly, P Krugman criticized Bush for seeking China's help in revaluing their currency a year ago. Business Week says that China was pressured by European and US officials to revalue their currency in the summer of 2003. And some things never change - the pressure continues, with no results. I wonder what Kerry might be referring to? (Note - I cheated - here is an old post on this very subject).

UPDATE: [Great round-up here]. Reaction shots - Glenn has Bush winning. Hmm, Glenn thinks Kerry hit a double on the wife question when he didn't mention his wife? Golly, what does the Insta-Wife get for Mother's Day?

And Roger Simon focuses on the last words of Kerry's sainted mum: "Integrity, integrity, integrity". Kerry could have lightened the mood by delivering her punchline - "Once you can fake that, John, you've got it made."

Andrew Sullivan has polls for Kerry; Andrew thinks Kerry was a mess on gay mariage, but liked his stand on assault weapons. Andrew, your not a gun guy - Glenn is with me.

EVEN MORE: The Times loved Kerry's quip about Teresa. Here is Alessandra Stanley:

Mr. Bush seemed more relaxed and eager to appeal to women when he spoke humbly and tenderly of his faith and his love for his daughters and the wife he described self-mockingly as smarter and more articulate. But Mr. Kerry trumped the president on the personal side when he made fun of himself for being married to a much wealthier woman. He then turned back to his mother's deathbed, unwilling to cede even maudlin sentiment to the more emotive Mr. Bush.

Hmm. "Maudlin sentiment"? I may introduce her as supporting evidence for my position. Here is James Bennet:

[Kerry] managed one real joke at his own expense, drawing a big laugh by referring to his marriage to a multimillionaire, Teresa Heinz Kerry, in noting that some, more than others, had "married up."

No sale, James.

UNRELENTING: Mickey's a genius, and he didn't hate the Teresa moment. Not at all:

5) Schieffer's next question (about being "surrounded by very strong women") was another set-up for Kerry, allowing him some desperately needed self-humanization. When Kerry talked about his mother, he suddenly became a person again! Maybe he should think about his mother, like a method actor, before every debate. ... Too bad his mother anecdote was lame, and the debate was already almost over. ... P.S.: At least his (also human) Teresa joke will make it into the sound-bite rotation. Theresa didn't look too pleased--but then, she rarely does. ...

You are all wrong, and I am right. Next.

OK, here is a revised debate transcript. Much easier to read.

Comments

[Jan]

I was watching NBC (not by choice, only one cable connection and the son had that)and they showed after the debate Therezsa. She looked like an old hag, angry and totally unlovable!!

[daniel]

kerry is a demogogue who played the race-card:

kerry charged bush had never met with the cbc. he did.

kerry claimed that 50% of black men in nyc are unemployed.

this seems false to me. a ny'er.

who will factcheck this?

[Reid]

Integrity, integrity, integrity! Does anyone believe this is a real quote? Was the hospital in Cambodia around Christmas time?

Best line was when Bush eyeballed CBS' Bob Schieffer while questioning whether network news endorsements of Kerry's health plan were necessarily credible. Choice.

[sym]

I think Bush won, but Kerry did a good job too. But hey, didn't you think Bush won the first one?

[Jeff]

Bush is Kerry's daddy? Come now, that's an exaggeration. One refuted less snarkily by the instapolling and, I imagine, longer range polling.

Someone was the daddy, all right.

[TM]

hey, didn't you think Bush won the first one?

I was very crafty in my phrasing, but my gist was, Kerry did not win the first one by enough to change the dynamics of the race. Pretty astute, huh?

[Forbes]

Haven't see the transcript--did Kerry actually say that 50% of black men are unemployed in NYC? I expect the NYTimes will be pointing that out. Not. (Can you imagine a republican saying suh a falsehood, and living to see the morning?)

[Forbes]

Just saw the replay, and he did say 50% of black men in NYC are unemployed. Is Kerry a joke, or what? Helps his base to report such a falsehood. Wonder what Kos has to say. Disgusting. Who's undecided after this? Clueless, is all.

[sym]

I was very crafty in my phrasing, but my gist was, Kerry did not win the first one by enough to change the dynamics of the race. Pretty astute, huh?

Perhaps not your finest moment as a prognosticator. But OTOH, I think that's what happened tonight. Bush won, but he also needed Kerry to suck to get any bounce, and that didn't happen. And tomorrow's OBL quote newscycle should be murder on Bush. Karl, if you're reading this, I think it's time for the "surprise" ;)

[sym]

but don't feel bad, Tom. I'm pretty sure I guaranteed no Bush convention bounce somewhere in your comment archives.

[Slartibartfast]

A clarification will be issued today, in which Kerry will amend what he said to say that 50% of unemployed blacks in the state of NY are men.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

50% of blacks unemployed? Well, maybe he's anticipating more of this:

http://www.scrivener.net/2004/10/entrepreneurial-rise-and-fall-story-of.html

[Brian]

"...it was always raining in Kerryville - was there anything that Bush and this Administration did not do wrong?"

He managed to do quite a few things wrong. I'll crib from Brad Delong, for purposes of brevity: "...the Bush administration [has] governed (i) from the right on culture, (ii) from the orbit of Pluto on national security, and (iii) from the Gamma Quadrant on the economy."

Bush did have a few good points, but with his outrageous whoppers, his bizarrely bad jokes, odd speaking style, and pathetic shots at Ted Kennedy, among other things, he didn't win. He didn't get completely blown out of the water, mind you, but he didn't really win on substance, and he certainly didn't take it on style.

Specifically, I am glad that Kerry didn't demagogue outsourcing that much. If anything is bound to bite him in the ass, it might be that.

Oh, and I'm not sure that the Krugman piece says what you think it says.

[TomCom]

Guys

Most agree that Kerry won Debate 1, but he spent the next two debates, including the 3rd one which was supposedly only on things domestic, explaining, unsuccessfully, what he meant by his asinine "Global Test" remark in Debate 1. And he spent lots of time on the stump trying to get out from under it, also unsucessfully. ("Global & Elsewhere"- Elsewhere? Klingons?). There's a term for such win: a "pyrrhic victory".

TomCom