North Korea - Now What?

On Nov. 18, James Brooke of the NY Times noted the disappearing portaits of Kim Jong Il, but found experts to tell him that it meant little.

But not so fast - Mr. Brooke is back, and this time experts find all sorts of deeply meaningful straws in the wind:

Japanese Official Warns of Fissures in North Korea

TOKYO, Nov. 21 - After weeks of reports from North Korea of defecting generals, antigovernment posters and the disappearance of portraits of the country's ruler, the leader of Japan's governing party warned Sunday of the prospects of "regime change" in North Korea.

"As long as Chairman Kim Jong Il controls the government, we have to negotiate with him, but it is becoming more doubtful whether we will be able to achieve anything with this government," said Shinzo Abe, acting secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, on Fuji TV, referring to talks on North Korea's abductions of Japanese in the 1970's. "I think we should consider the possibility that a regime change will occur, and we need to start simulations of what we should do at that time."

...With the reports of Mr. Kim's portraits being removed from some public buildings and news of military defections, outside analysts are speculating that the personality cult around "Dear Leader" is being curbed, either to advance painful economic reforms or to head off a military coup fomented by China.

...Analysts also say they have seen more high-level defections of late, possibly a result of more permeable borders and greater dissatisfaction.

In Seoul, an editor at Monthly Chosun, a magazine that closely follows North Korean affairs, said in an interview that when he was in northern China earlier this year, Chinese officials showed him North Korean wanted posters for generals who had managed to reach China with their families. The editor, who asked not to be identified, estimated that in recent years, 130 North Korean generals had defected to China, about 10 percent of the military elite.

Of this group, the most significant, he said, are four who have been integrated into active duty with the Chinese military in the Shenyang district, along the Korean border.

...Bradley K. Martin, author of a biography of Kim Jong Il, speculated that Mr. Kim might want to adopt a lower profile to avoid blame at home for North Korea's economic failures and to avoid "coming into the cross hairs of U.S. hawks, who were demonizing him the way they had demonized Saddam Hussein."

"Sooner or later, large numbers of North Koreans would hear that he was an object of derision to outsiders, would hear that the official version of his birth in a log cabin on Mount Paektu was false," Mr. Martin, wrote in an essay last week, alluding to the end of North Korea's information monopoly. "His admiring references to the Thai and Swedish systems in recent years suggested that Kim Jong Il was looking to transform the country into something like a limited monarchy rather than the absolute dictatorship it had become."

I have no benchmark, but if ten percent of the North Korean generals have defected, that seems like a lot.

Comments

[Jim Glass]

"His admiring references to the Thai and Swedish systems in recent years suggested that Kim Jong Il was looking to transform the country into something like a limited monarchy..."

If he can transform North Korea into Sweden, that will be one neat trick.

[PeterArgus]

Yea and I bet the NoKos could really compete with the Swedes in the minimalist furniture/dining sets market!

[Lurking Observer]

Somehow, in the eyes of the press and the liberal kommentariat, every leader is intent on reform, every despot is really itching to liberalize their system, and every dictator is actually better than the "hard-liners" waiting in the wings.

And the only obstacle, it ever seems, to such dreams of enlightened rule is American obstinence in not being friendlier, not providing more aid and assistance, not letting up the pressure, not being more "understanding" of their constraints.

Funny, isn't it?

[Crank]

Bradley K. Martin, author of a biography of Kim Jong Il, speculated that Mr. Kim might want to adopt a lower profile . . . to avoid "coming into the cross hairs of U.S. hawks, who were demonizing him the way they had demonized Saddam Hussein."

"Sooner or later, large numbers of North Koreans would hear that he was an object of derision to outsiders, would hear that the official version of his birth in a log cabin on Mount Paektu was false," Mr. Martin, wrote in an essay last week, alluding to the end of North Korea's information monopoly.

The Team America effect!

[The Kid]

In April two NorK fuel trains reportedly exploded at the Ryongchon station, 50km north of Pyongyang, nine hours after Little Kim passed through on his way home from a visit to Beijing; he’d had been in China to discuss the NorK’s nuclear program.

According to a later report, foreign aid workers said the area around the station was totally obliterated and damage extends for four kilometers. Speculation was that power cables touched rail wagons loaded with ammonium nitrate fertilizer. It was still not a big topic in NorK media even though these pix show some serious damage.

Some, including NorK state security, believe that the explosion was an attempt to assassinate Kim. Reports on casualties vary by over an order of magnitude: 54 -3,000. That this happened a week and a half after Dick Cheney passed through the area talking about the NorK nuke program has been noted . Of Cheney’s trip, the last report writes: During his stay in China, the smiles at photo sessions and declarations of solid, pragmatic relations may have masked tougher talk behind closed doors.

Then of course there was the September 9 explosion, mistaken at first for a nuke test. It wasn’t, according to this report, but it was close to the Chinese border. The NorKs said they were building a dam and let the Brit ambassador visit the site.

Finally, don’t forget this.

[john jay]

Crank,

It looks like the history books of 2025 will have an interesting sidebar on the effect of movies on politics.

"In 2004, a director created such a devastating attack on a ruler, that he was forced to step down after intense ridicule. The film, of course, was Team America directed by Trey Parker, and it's effect on Kim Jung Il, the despot of North Korea, was astonishing at the time.

"In a little-remembered historical counterpoint, another director, a certain Michael Moore, had that same year attempted to do something similar to America's 43rd president (George W. Bush 2001-2008). In Moore's case, the cartoonish lampoon had quite the opposite effect..."

[Harry]

Sweden? I'm having a little trouble imagining the North Korean bikini team doing Budweiser commercials.

[George]

130 generals have defected in recent years? That amounts to about 10% of that elite group? That implies that NoKo has about 1300 generals leading its armed forces. That sounds like a lot.

[Big Dog]

"...who were demonizing him the way they had demonized Saddam Hussein."

Is it really that much effort to "demonize" either of these guys?

[Mitch H.]

George, pre-war Iraq had a similar number of flag officers. It's what happens when a mass-conscript army becomes the sole prop of a totalitarian garrison-state. Given the comparative sizes of the North Korean and Ba'athist-era Iraqi armies, I'm surprised they only had a thousand generals. I wonder what the intrigue-induced mortality rate is among the officer corps? A ten percent defection rate might be reasonable if those represent the losers in internal quarrelling; if those are just the ones that got out with intact skins, you have to wonder how many are dissolving in anonymous quicklime pits.