Problem Solved

Tom Friedman solves the nuclear proliferation problems with North Korea and Iran, and absolves the Bush Administration of malfeasance.  All in one column:

North Korea's nuclear program could be stopped tomorrow by the country that provides roughly half of North Korea's energy and one-third of its food supplies - and that is China.

All China has to say to Kim Jong Il is: "You will shut down your nuclear weapons program and put all your reactors under international inspection, or we will turn off your lights, cut off your heat and put your whole country on a diet. Have we made ourselves clear?" One thing we know about China - it knows how to play hardball when it wants to, and if China played hardball that way with North Korea, the proliferation threat from Pyongyang would be over.

Ditto Europe vis-à-vis Iran. If the European Union said to the Iranians: "You will shut down your nuclear weapons program and put all your reactors and related facilities under international inspection or you will face a total economic boycott from Europe. Which part of this sentence don't you understand?" Trust me, that is the kind of explicit threat that would get Tehran's attention. Short of that, the Iranians will dicker over their nuclear carpets forever.

So why haven't China and the E.U. said these things? "Like that girl with the brussels sprouts," Mr. Mandelbaum said, "the Chinese and the Europeans are all for combating nuclear proliferation - just not enough actually to do something about it."

At the end of the day, the Chinese would rather live with a nuclear North Korea than risk a collapsed nonnuclear North Korea, and the Europeans would rather live with a nuclear Iran - that Europe can make all kinds of money off of - rather than risk losing Iran's business to prevent it from going nuclear. The Chinese and the Europeans "each assume that in the end, the U.S. will deter both the North Koreans and the Iranians anyway, so why worry," Mr. Mandelbaum said.

The Chinese angle gets front page treatment at the Times - publicly, at least, they are not going to be pressuring North Korea:

China on Tuesday ruled out applying economic or political sanctions to pressure North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program, appearing to undercut a crucial element of the Bush administration's evolving North Korea strategy. The announcement comes just as American intelligence agencies are trying to determine whether North Korea is preparing for a nuclear test.

Ahh, but what about privately?

Some experts with long experience dealing with China on the North Korea issue suggest that Beijing's public stance may be quite different from what it is saying to the North Koreans. "The Chinese may be feigning indifference," said Kurt Campbell, who held a senior defense position in the Clinton administration dealing with Asian issues. "I believe in private they are putting pressure on the North Koreans not to test because a test would be deeply antithetical to their interests in the region."

Inscrutable.  And to add to the angst, North Korea announced that:

...it has removed 8,000 spent fuel rods from a nuclear reactor, a step that could provide the communist state with more plutonium for nuclear weapons.         

"The D.P.R.K. has successfully finished the unloading of 8,000 spent fuel rods from the 5 MW pilot nuclear plant in the shortest period," North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement, according to the reclusive nation's official news service, Korean Central News Agency.

This may even force the networks to cut back on the coverage of the Michael Jackson debacle.

Comments

[The Indigent Blogger]

I posted on the New York Times article today as well, but I have some questions trying to figure out what is actually happening the with the food aid. Choson Ilbo, whose reliability as a news source I am trying to ascertain, reports that citizens in Pyongyang are having their rations cut-off by the government.

[TM]

OK, shameless self-promotion is our life's blood - here is a link to the Indigent Blogger on China.

[mw]

China's playing an odd game that I don't understand. If N Korea goes (and stays) nuclear, that's going to give a major kick to Japan and South Korea to build up defenses and probably go nuclear themselves--something presumeably that China very much does not want.

And not only does China have the leverage of oil and food shipments, but China could also eliminate North Korea's security concerns by taking it in under China's own nuclear umbrella.

Bottom line seems to be that the N Korean nuclear problem isn't yet solved because China doesn't yet want it solved--but why exactly?

[TM]

If we accept the very reasonable presumption that China wants stability, then a non-nuclear, non-collapsed No Korean government would seem to be a logical goal for them.

Which might be consistent with the theory that they are privately pressuring NoKo. But why not admit it? If a non-nuke NoKo is clearly in their interest, they hardly look like US lackeys by publicly pressuring No Korea.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

I think China's game is 'chicken'. They want a free hand with Taiwan, and think they can trade their help with North Korea for that.

But Bush just told them 'no', with his anti-Yalta speech.

[Crank]

The brussels sprouts reference just baffled me.

Friedman thinks the EU has the kind of power over Iran that China has over Kim. I doubt that. Maybe EU plus Russia, but not EU alone. The role of Russia can't be ignored.

[SteveMG]

Hmm, it may be the time to play our Japan and/or Taiwan cards.

E.g., extend our nuclear umbrella over those nations. Express a willingness to share our nuclear technology with them.

Time to play hardball.

SMG

[richard mcenroe]

No! No! No!

This is ALL George Bush's fault!

He should have fixed it in 1994 when he had the chance!*

*per this Sunday's news shows...

[The Kid]

China knows that a non-nuclear, non-collapsed NorK government will last but a short time, a year or two at most. Little Kim would no longer have the leverage to support his lavish lifestyle because any aid from the US would be closely monitored to prevent the continuation of his kleptocracy. Those around the little jerk would feel the pain and quickly realize that there’s but one solution to their misery.

China and South Korea need merely look at the German experience to see that unification would be rocky – 27 times worse that what the Germans have experienced – and expect that many in the north would try to move where economic conditions are better, and that would likely be China. The SKors are not thrilled at the thought of reunification and may be unwilling to lend a hand after over fifty years of separation. They might send some aid, but the lack of technological literacy and education among their brethren to the north would seem to rule out any sizable capital investment or permission to move to the south.

China likely figures that it would, one way or the other, bear the brunt of the eventual collapse of the NorK regime. That would further aggravate internal friction within China. While we read about the dramatically improving economic conditions within China, there are still desperately poor areas whose inhabitants would not be too thrilled with aid to NorK immigrants or to the collapsed country itself.

So China might be acting in its own self-interest, waiting for the US and Japan to come up with a big funding package that would sustain the north upon regime collapse. The problem is that the US and Japan don’t believe that they have the resources to spare. China is betting that Japan would find it cheaper and easier to come up with the aid than to develop its own nuclear forces.

[Slartibartfast]

Is this the same 8000 rods they've previously announced having extracted all the plutonium from, or a different set? Anyone?

[beautifulatrocities]

China props up North Korea because Kim Jong Il keeps us busy while Beijing threatens Taiwan. Lately China has been making Sudetanland-type rumbles about 'protecting the sovereignity' of Taiwan, but it can't take it by force - yet. As long as Kim Jong Il & George Bush play chicken, Beijing is happy (& knows it has nothing to fear from the UN, which wouldn't utter a peep if China swallowed Taiwan like dim sum)

[John "Akatsukami" Braue]

"All China has to say to Kim Jong Il is: "You will shut down your nuclear weapons program and put all your reactors under international inspection, or we will turn off your lights, cut off your heat and put your whole country on a diet. Have we made ourselves clear?""

To which Kim could respond, "Hell, dudes, I've already done that myself!"