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July 29, 2006

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» The World Fights Islamofascists for a Reason from Sneakeasy's Joint
This is ridiculous. The other day I wrote a post on the fight Israel is taking to Hezbollah, in response to recent provocations. In an update I included a comment by a brand spanking new Blog calling for a Free [Read More]

Comments

Other Tom

I have not felt from Day 1 that Israel had a chance of destroying Hezbollah militarily.

What the Times avoids addressing is that the world media are suckers for the "civilian casualty" meme that is part and parcel of the network strategy: we will deploy ourselves in such a way that attacking us is bound to cause many civilian casualties, which is good because we know the media will very quickly denounce our attackers.

clarice

It's evil of me I know, but part of me wants to see what concern for civilian casualties CNN would have were its hq in Atlanta taken over by a paramilitary force which began shooting at its people .


I'm more optimistic about Lebanon that many others--At the moment it's infrastructure which took years to build is destroyed--including it sbunkers, most weapone, best troops and communications.

Thousands of refugees are now in Syria or in Hezbollah run centers--Guns or butter? If they don't take care of these people, their stock will diminish. If they do, they won't have money to reequip.

Toby928

“We are now into the first great war between nations and networks,” said John Arquilla

I cannot disagree strongly enough with this statement. As near as I can tell, Hezbollah is a mercenary force in the hire of Syria and Iran for both cash and religious blessing. Just as in the cold war, proxy armies are respresenting real, touchable nations. I don't think that anyone would dispute that the Soviets used many proxyies against us but were shielded from retaliation by their nuclear deterent (a fact that Tehran has not missed). If we allow ourselves to treat each and every terrorist network as some kind of standalone entity, we are playing by the enemies rules and placing ourselves at a severe and possibly fatal disadvantage. We should be mobilizing against the puppet masters in national conflict, an art at which we excel.

Tob

clarice

I have to go to preview--sorry--

*--At the moment its infrastructure which took years to build is destroyed--including its bunkers, most weapons, best troops and communications.********

clarice

It sounds heartless, but we must not let UN run the refugee relief..Not even most of the terrorist suck up NGOs--It will just relieve Iran and Syria of a burden that it rightly theirs by funneling the aid thru Hezbollah.

cathyf

Clearly one of the most important weapons that Israel has is the Mossad, which is the best intelligence service in the world. It allows them to know where to hit and who to hit.

The US, on the other hand, hasn't decided whether we want to have an intelligence service at all. A significant fraction of our population has what intel programs we do have under constant siege.

I think that we are inexorably travelling towards a doomsday scenario, where we will have only two choices -- surrender to the Global Caliphate, or commit genocide against muslims. A genocide where the amended laws of war are "every muslim, whether able-bodied, infant or infirm, is a legitimate target." And it's the "peace" activists who are working hardest to back the world into the corner where committing genocide is the only alternative to surrender.

cathy :-)

clarice

This is what the Pentagon-NIA fight is about. Rumsfeld wants lean troops with actionable intelligence not big armies with fluffer doodle analysis by people like Pilar and Sheuer.

Yes, Cathy, the "humanitarian" constraints on fighting these jihadis and their state sponsors properly will only make the battle more bloddy in the end.

noah

Yeah, but it took HzB six years or so to dig in. Sure they are difficult to root out...call them an army of termites not Davids.

Israel's well deserved reputation is for desert tank warfare and air superiority...no conventional army could overpower HzB quickly...any attempt to do so would risk exposing one's rear to devastating couterattack.

I also don't get the media obsession with HzB's missiles. Except for the two guided missiles used against an Iraeli warship and a freighter these weapons are of no military significance.

Rick Ballard

Clarice,

I would say that the UN is not to be trusted to run anything. They are terrorist enablers, not peacekeepers and not humanitarians. It's a shame that Egelund wasn't at the observation post with the other observers.

Israel has warned the civilian population to withdraw - if they choose to stay or if the Hezzies among them and from whom they derive income hold them hostage, well, all decisions have consequences. Israel is still tiptoeing and may have objectives that are much more limited than we can imagine. I find Olmert as unimpressive as any other Likudnik and I am likewise unimpressed with Mossad's apparent inability to identify more than obvious nodes. Killing Hezzie pawns is not particularly effective and I haven't seen very many of their commanders acknowledged as having been killed.

If there is a prisoner swap for hostages at the end of this then I would give the advantage to Hezbollah because that was their announced initial aim. If the Israeli's can kill Nasrullah then they get to claim the advantage.

noah

Rick, that may be the spin at the end of the day (ie, that unless HzB clearly loses, they have won) but I don't buy it. They never were a military threat to Israel in the first place. Now they have lost most of what they built in the last 6 years...doesn't seem like much of a victory to me.

clarice

I mostly agree, but I think the Israelis are trying to avoid the trap of chasing Hezb north and then getting stuck there..So what I think they tried to do was destroy communications and infrastructure and weapons caches withinn range of Israel, cut off retreat north ..A prisoner exchange would be a disaster..

I wish I had time this weekend to research and wriite up an article arguing against the usual "relief" efforts..Iran and Syria must bear that burden..

clarice

Of course, the real fight is a propaganda one and if Hezb gets to spin a loss as a victory............

Rick Ballard

Noah,

I didn't say that "that unless HzB clearly loses, they have won", I said that "if there is a prisoner swap for hostages at the end of this then I would give the advantage to Hezbollah", because that is precisely what Nasrullah declared the objective of the exercise to be. If Israel swaps 300 Hezzies for two Israeli soldiers (even after having suffered X casualties in the effort) then how can it be said that Israel prevailed? Nasrullah doesn't give a damn how much Lebanese infrastructure is destroyed - he knows his muslim cattle too well. Hezbollah will come in with their "relief" organization and have the locals licking their boots within a week, while the UN applauds their "humanitarian assistance".

Jos Bleau

We've been there before - the last two years of the Korean war were similar to this, as were some the WW2 pacific island campaigns and the asualt on the German west defenses that took almost 6 months in 1944-1945.

In short, if you cannot isolate these bunker ocmplexes, cutting them off from supplies from the rear and denying the defenders the ability to quickly re-deploy between bunkers, then the attackes face a bloody meatgrinder.

If the bunker complexes CAN be isolated, they can be systematically reduced with much lower casualites to the attackers.

In this instance that might require a deep armored ethrust 20 or 30 miles into Lebanon, to isolat the bunker complexes to the south, and ssytematic assualts from the south AND north. This would entail a months long campaign, would result in 10s of thousands of civillina deaths (and trhe death of hundred of attackers), and still leave Hezbollah's Bekaa valley infrastructure in place.

The Israeli political leadership has given no sign that they are willing to press the fight so closely, and probably could not bear the diplomatic pressure in any case.

windansea

From what I understand the guided missles that almost sunk the ship were fired by Iranians, not Hezbollah.

noah

Contrary to press reports there has NOT been widespread destruction of Lebanese infrastructure except for roads and bridges that would be useful for HzB re-supply. I saw an aerial of Beirut...appears to be 99% intact. But whatever Rick...everybody including me is an armchair general. Most commenters in the rightosphere were hoping that HzB would be destroyed completely and now that it appears that won't happen many are concluding that HzB has won. Not me.

noah

BTW, C-SPAN had a good segment this morning with Dennis Ross' take on the situation. The guy is pretty level-headed and seems to know what he is talking about (he should!!).

MaidMarion

It matters not one hoot if our military pillar of power is able to reconfigure itself to fight against current terrorist tactics if our diplomats and policy makers are still making calls from the old Cold War playbooks.

The political bureaucracy, to include our intelligence agencies, also need to flatten down their chains-of-command so they can more nimbly react --- diplomatically -- to the quick-changing realities on the military battlefield.

The terrorists our military and the Israelis now fight are not formal "armies" of Iran or Syria, but we shouldn't make the mistake of elevating them with the label of "non-state" forces or "non-state" enemy. Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, Hamas...they're not the enemy...they're just the two-bit sub-contractors. They'd be out of business if not for the support and direction of the state actors. They're the bad cops to Iran and Syria's good cops.

While they are the forces our military must battle, our diplomats and President should ignore them as political actors, and treat them as de facto armies of the states of Iran and Syria--who are the enemies we are fighting.

ajacksonian

NetWar... NetWar.... I am *sure*... yes!

First off NetWar starts with Wizard Warriors that we call Special Forces. They are the highly integrated small unit able to coordinate many things at one time, walk and chew gum and ensure that protocol is followed. They are backed by the other Wizards behind screens and analyzing data to integrate it. Perhaps not overwell... and that is a problem...

Luckily that pointed to NetWar that integrates across various forms of information and training to make the Armed Forces more effective in small unit ops. This is built upon over a decade of hard MOUT (Military Operations in Urban Terrain) training which has paid off handsomely in recent conflicts. One of the greatest efforts was on *continuous* training and re-training, using CONUS based support areas to go through scenarios after they had been put down from mission ops in-theater. This then leads to a flexible and adaptive response capability, which I look at here and is literally unmatched by any Nation on the planet including Israel. By drawing on a wide experience base, putting troops that will be rotating in-theater through scenarios based on *yesterdays* actions, new viewpoints are garnered, promulgated, tried, reviewed for effectiveness and all of that fed back into the system.

Now, after realizing all of that, I did a re-cast of my Iranian outlook using NetWar v0.9 as a basis, and came up with startling results. The most of which is keyed upon: where *are* the US Special Forces? The only answer can be [as they are not twiddling their thumbs doing nothing, being folks of action] gathering Intel, making social and other connections and looking and future possible battlespaces. And the major sticking point for the entire concept to transform the nature of military ops are the mid-tier pentagon brass, who do not train as often or as hard at *their* jobs as the folks at the pointy end do at theirs. Thus, the US infrastructure is caught flat-footed by senior military that don't like to see a game that is played faster and are going to be conservative and resist it. When these guys retire and point their fingers at their previous superiors, remember that three others are pointing back in accusation of being part of the problem.

Needless to say I also agree on Reforming the INTEL Community away from *organizations* and more towards cross-integrated analysis by individuals able to quickly grasp multiple INTEL types and look at them in a cohesive manner. This is not mere 'dot connection' it is newly typified *types* of dots that would normally fly under the radar screen of the current IC setup. All of this, of necessity, needs to be tied into the military organizations and have a cross-sharing environment that is near instantaneous. In this way no expertise on a question or problem is lost, and when expertise is needed, it can quickly be found and brought in and up-to speed to address it.

Now, terrorists have been internetworking in different way since the mid-1970's and have been sharing resources, suppliers, training capability, tactics and methodology amongst themselves. This internetworking has made it so that any start-up terrorist organization that is doing so 'on the cheap' can quickly make contacts, get supplies and spin-up. This is nothing new, although many don't like to think of it that way because it upsets the digestion to think that all of terrorism is, indeed, Transnational in scope and breadth and not confined to just the worst elements of it. Without removing the support internetworking, getting rid of al Qaeda or Hamas or Hezbollah will *still* leave fertile ground for the NEXT organization to spin up.

So one of the *other* reasons we are watching what Israel and Hezbollah do is to see if *either* of them are learning from US. So far the answer is: no. Israel has not demonstrated the fast moving, interoperational capability that the much larger US Armed Forces have... and Hezbollah has been doing the old building of bunkers and using cell phones, which can be monitored and traced. Such great folks to give their positions away like that! Unlike in Iraq where the US and Iraqi military now track terrorists/militia members/insurgents/thugs via cell phone traffic to trace out common nexus points and activity so that raids become much more effective. So both Hezbollah and Israel are in the NetWar v0.05 area, while the US will be at v0.95 and pre-beta for *the real thing*.

Coming soon to a military theater near you!

cathyf
In a talk that Mr. Arquilla calls Net Warfare 101, he describes how traditional militaries are organized in a strict hierarchy, from generals down to privates. In contrast, networks flatten the command structure. They are distributed, dispersed, agile, mobile, improvisational.
I think that there is a fundamental flaw in the Arquilla's analysis. If you know anything about computer networks, they are in fact strictly hierarchical. The way that the Internet works is that every machine has an address, four numbers separated by dots. So if a packet comes and it is addressed to AA.BB.CC.DD, then the machine that routes doesn't know where that it. All that machine knows is the address of the router for AA.x.x.x. So that packet gets sent to the router for AA.x.x.x, which doesn't know where it goes either, but does know where AA.BB.x.x should go to. So then it gets sent there -- and it knows where AA.BB.CC.xx packets are supposed to go. And that machine knows where AA.BB.CC.DD is, and voila! the packet gets delivered. And Voila! Each router only needs to have an address list for 256 machines, and the network can find any address out of 4,294,967,296 possibilities. Of course there is redundency, and at each level there is more than just one router which knows the 256 machines, but it is absolutely a hierarchy, and their is absolutely very very clear lines of authority in information routing. A couple years back there was a catastrophic Internet failure that lasted hours after bad data was loaded on the 12 Internet backbone machines.

Or another example of a 3-level hierarchical network -- you send a letter to John Jones, 123 Main St., zip code 98765. The post office sends the letter to the 98765 post office. Where there are people who know where 123 Main St. is. And then when it gets there, there are people who know who "John Jones" is.

If you compare the typical Arab terrorist organization with either the US or Israeli army, in fact the "hierarchy" vs "distributed" distinction is that Arab culture stomps out initiative, while both the US and Israeli army give significantly more operational autonomy devolved down to the lowest levels. An American infantry platoon which is cut off from command communication has way better training and cultural reinforcement to operate independently.

The interesting question is whether terrorist organizations are always authoritarian. Certainly we have seen that in the US domestic terrorist organizations (Klan, Weathermen, etc.) have been fascist in structure and organization as well as in goals. If they are, then the most important tactic for fighting against terrorists is accurate intelligence which allows us to sever their hierarchical networks in some small number of places, and destroy the organization at considerably less cost than wholesale slaughter of grunt-level troops and wholesale destruction of territory.

cathy :-)

larwyn

BREAKING: Head of Islamic Jihad in West Bank just killed by Israelis!!!!!
"ISRAELIS ACTUALLY RATCHTING UP IN THE LAST 8 HOURS!" MSNBC.

Ajacksonian,
Great post and agree with you - but why would the Admin want to tout all they are doing. Do you really want announcements that the DOD is training assassins/killing machines necessary for this new kind of war. Ohhhhh - the PTSD's on the way.

All around the web (examples:Hewitt, Tigerhawk, Dinocrat) today are howls at FBI in Seattle case's "not terrorism".

But Admin knows it is hated and has faith in the traditions/values of Americans to "know evil".

So using REVERSE PSYCH right now
under the P.C. doctrine.

Consider fact that Libertarians join the LEFT in their fear of "Christian Theocracy" under the Christian GW.

Consider the howls if the FBI* immediately identified this as Islamic Terrorism.

By going the PC route, average Americans are making up their own minds. Just see the immigration polls that show majority of Americans are fed up.

The Admin could never take the Press/LSM on head on, but
the falling ratings and subcriptions show that the American public knows the LSM if full of crap!
They are being destroyed in a very "PC" way, aren't they?

When true crackdown comes it is best that it bubbles up from grassroots, which is happening.

May also be part of Israeli Cabinet meeting to not only keep their public in support of the war but to have Bush and Blair thru Condi telling them they can't back down now!

Reverse psych can work on many levels. GW isn't running again but immigration hearings taking place all summer, as supporters of Lebanon/Hezballah march and protest in our country.

Have faith that Americans can put 2 and 2 together.

*FBI's CounterTerrorism Task Forces are surely going into background and call record from that terrible NSA.

noah

I also find curious the weapons that HzB apparently do NOT have...namely shoulder fired IR guided missiles. Instead Iran has supplied them with many thousands of militarily useless unguided rockets. Why? My guess is that Iranians are crazy but not crazy enough to put such weapons in the hands of HzB who could then tranship them and wreak havoc on civilian airliners thruout the region/world.

ed

Hmmmm.

1. For a large paramilitary force like Hezbollah to have 6 years of time and about $250+ million USD per year in funding by Iran to fail to inflict enormous amounts of damage on Israeli forces ... IS a defeat.

Is there any question that a WWII era Japanese force with 6 years of time, $1.5 billion in funding and say 20,000 fighters couldn't inflict grevious amounts of casualties on an invading Israeli force? I for one don't have any question about that.

Yet Hezbollah hasn't been able to inflict serious casualties on an Israeli military that has to deal with emplaced Hezbollah fortifications.

That's a significant level of utter incompetence by Hezbollah frankly.


2. Personally I can't say that anything coming from this "Net War" really means anything. The USMC has trained Marine infantry to operate semi-independently for decades now. Consider how operations are conducted in Iraq, a prime example of this silly "Net War" nonsense.

The US military organizes it's forces into large units for administration and logisitics purposes. But in combat all operations are conducted by company and platoon units. Sure a battalion will get orders to sieze a specific objective. But the actual operations are always conducted by smaller units, particularly since most of the combat recently has involved urban warfare which requires small unit operations.

The only military forces that would have a significant problem with this silly "Net War" nonsense are militaries based on the old Soviet model.

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding this but it doesn't look either new or significant.

Gary Maxwell

Dont forget that in the Arab world they are quite the masters of spin. When you lose handily in every war you have ever started with the "Zionists", you take solace in moral victories. Or as Richard Nixon did once, just declare victory and boogie. Then repeat ad nauseum, that you won without any sense of shame ( the big lie concept). It will work, and unfortunately the Media will abet them in the effort. This is my biggest gripe with the media, no sense of proportioning.

Cecil Turner
It is that nation-states know they cannot directly take on superpowers — either regional or global — without getting their clocks cleaned, and so they use proxies they train and support to take the fight to those superpowers.
Good summary of the problem. Next the solution:
Cut off state support, or eliminate the ability of the networks to survive in ungoverned areas, and they collapse on themselves.
Hey, no kidding. And how do you do that? HOw about cleaning the sponsors' clocks?

Seriously, pretending using terrorist catspaws is a new facet of warfare is nonsense. Very few strategems have been overlooked in the past few centuries, and this is no exception (e.g., French-Indian War). And, just as then, the correct strategy is to target the sponsor and destroy the catspaw's ability to act. It's also a primary step in military planning: "determine the enemy's center of gravity." Using a proxy to attack is just as much an act of war as a direct attack is, and the response is obvious. Negotiating a solution that legitimizes an act of war (and war crime) is a good way to ensure it'll be repeated in the future.

cathyf
I wish I had time this weekend to research and wriite up an article arguing against the usual "relief" efforts..Iran and Syria must bear that burden..
In fact, the people bearing that burden are the Druze. The WSJ has an interview with Walid Jumblatt today (free link). He is described as very much the tribal leader and patronage chief, organizing food, shelter, garbage collection, etc.

Such is the process by which Lebanon's internal politics will change. Jumblatt ain't great, but he is probably better -- and hates Syria way more than Israel.

cathy :-)

clarice

There's also a great article in the Wa Po today about Shia refugees streaming into a Christian town (allies of the Israleis in the last war) and being astonished they are receiving aid and comfort.

Not a drop to the UN or the usual NGO's--that is simply subsidizing terror and terror recruitment.

And a shout out to Syria and Iran that they broke it they can fix it. Please.

Soylent Red

Good call Ed...

USMC and large swathes of the Army are now dialed in to the flexible, decentralized model. Internal Pentagon competition with the Navy and AF, the Army and Marines have been slowly instituting net-war principles since the mid-eighties.

So for all intents and purposes, high-tech nation state vs. low-tech bad guy networks warfare is finished. AF and Navy have been relegated to softening up fixed targets and supporting the gravel agitators doing the heavy lifting.

Things are going to look a lot more like Afghanistan and a lot less like Desert Storm. For those looking forward to watching CNN coverage of armored columns rolling into Tehran, fuhgeddaboudit.

Where I take away some optimism is that traditionally, Western societies are culturally better at this kind of warfare. VDH has been preaching it for a while, but all one has to do is look to references about how Americans broke out of hedgerow country, patched together equipment on the fly, or adapted away from turning fights with Zeros.

When their hands are untied, Americans and Brits (and to some degree other Western military powers) will develop effective doctrine and tactics faster than any other historical comparison.

So...whenever practical, kick a politician in the ass and tell them "Untie their hands already!"

larwyn

Michael Ledeen would be cheered by this evidence of the
blowback from the Iranian
public who can put 2 + 2 together:

Iranian Mullahs Set Up 'Our Boys' (Hezbollah) Flags in Parliament


The mullahs distributed and set up the Hezbollah flag in the Parliament of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

,,,,,Bahman reports,........
"The Iranian people's rage and hatred for Hezbollah, the vicious terrorist organization and it’s Mullah masters is to the extent that even the Islamic regime’s own newspaper cannot deny it and are forced to confess to it.


,,,,, received messages saying: “Pray tell us, how on earth are we related to this Seyed Hassan Nasrallah whose photos have been plastered all over the country?!”

The next message warns that the terrorist leaders better stop taking the money the Islamic regime pays them because first of all that money does not belong to the Mullahs [to dole out], but to the Iranian people and because Iranians people are wholly infuriated.

The following message says: “Hassan Nassrollah, the coward is hiding out while the people of Lebanon are paying his price.”

... another caller says:"How dare the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Radio and Television reporters reporting from Beirut and are embedded with Hezbollah guerrillas refer to these terrorists as ‘our boys’? They’re no relation to the Iranian people; they’re cursed terrorists!"

GatewayPundit also has this:

The LSM wouldn't want to upset Danny Glover, Oliver Stone and Ed Asner
even when one of their own is beaten:

Castro Shows His Ghoulish Side in Argentina, Media Ignores


Too bad about those tyrants of the world...

Technology makes it harder and harder for them to hide ....

For the first time in 50 years a U.S. reporter actually asked Fidel Castro a pertinent question. This journalistic landmark took place last week while Castro visited Argentina. Castro (naturally) went ballistic. Why, the NERVE!!

"You're a mercenary paid by the Bush!" he shrieked. "Who pays you? You'll probably try to assassinate me with a bomb!"

As Castro yelled and sputtered, his bodyguards pounced on the offending reporter placing him in a choke hold and threatening much worse if he persisted in his impertinence.

The "great game" continues on all fronts.

Gary Maxwell

Cathy

Dont forget that during the Lebanese civil war, Jumblatt was a proxy of Syria. He may be estranged right now, but the guy is not that particular with whom he associates. Add in the cultist nature of the Druze, who are very secretive, and I dont know what to think about this development.

toby928

Things are going to look a lot more like Afghanistan and a lot less like Desert Storm.

Good point Red. The issue in this war is political will, or rather, our lack of will. (I blame one of the two major parties but the other is not blameless). If national conflict is going on, as I believe it is, a declaration of war would be helpful. As others have pointed out, a declaration of war does not imply that we would go nuclear or send troops from Iraq barrelling straight into Syria or Iran. It simply recognizes that a state of hostility exists and frees our hands and focuses our minds on the task of victory. The enemies' resources become fair game as do their leaders. I, for one, see no reason that Iran should have oil tankers traveling the seas or any need for Syria to have electricity. It should also be impossible for the leaders of Syria or Iran to appear in public with safety. Rather than destroying the millions of AK's that we have captured in Iraq, we should be airdropping them at random in the Iranian hinterland. Let the people defend themselves against the ruling thugs.

Tob

PeterUK

The SAS had considerable success against this kind of warfare in Malaya,Similarly the Chindits operated against the Japanese in WWII.
The problem has been, the cold war deformed military doctrine,the concept of the Big Divisions fighting massed tank and infantry battles on the Central European Plain obscured all else,but with the military as with all else,"Comes the time comes the man".
As an aside it would be interesting to know how many Chechens and Afghans are attached to Hezbollah.

larwyn

At least Jumblat gets the fear accross - they have already assassinated politicians and journalists
but LSM fails to mention when
"reporting" the polls of support
for the Hezzies. That 85%!
(85% reminds me a recent Lurker
update)

This prompted Mr. Nasrallah to declare, ominously, in an Al Jazeera interview last week: "If we succeed in achieving the victory . . . we will never forget all those who supported us. . . . As for those who sinned against us . . . those who let us down, and those who conspired against us . . . this will be left for a day to settle accounts. We might be tolerant with them and we might not."

and in this WSJ http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110008721

And as Walid Jumblatt says in his interview with Michael Young nearby, the fear of more assassinations remains palpable in Lebanon even though Mr. Assad withdrew his army from the country to much fanfare in 2005.

Click here: OpinionJournal - Hot Topic
http://www.opinionjournal.com/weekend/hottopic/?id=110008725

clarice

Gary, there are not a lot of options there mbesides subsidizing Hezbollah with relief funds. The Druzes are a minority in a difficult situation. (Did you know that on the opposite side of the border they play key roles in Israeli intel and the military.) I'd take a chance on him..give him some street cred against the Syrians and Iran.

Rick Ballard

"Negotiating a solution that legitimizes an act of war (and war crime) is a good way to ensure it'll be repeated in the future."

Yep. Israel 'wins' if it refuses to negotiate. Killing Nasrullah would be tasty icing but refusal to negotiate until the hostages are back in Israel is paramount.

Soylent Red

Rather than destroying the millions of AK's that we have captured in Iraq, we should be airdropping them at random in the Iranian hinterland.

There ya go Tob. Best idea I've heard all day.

And while we're at it, air drops into North Korea as well.

PeterUK

Has anyone noticed that the terrorist leadership are runners to a man,they set things in motion and are gone. Chicken bin Laden,Mullah "On yer bike"Omar, Abu Musab " The world is our battlefield but I'm washing my turban tonight" al-Zarhawi and Sayyed Hassan " I can get a much better picture of the action from Damascus" Nasrallah,what a pathetic bunch.

Uncle BigBad

Some awfully good commentary on this thread (and I haven't noticed any of the usual trolls).

All I'm seeing on TV is Katrina-like hysteria. I trust that Madame Rice's efforts at peace brokering are simply doing for Isreal what Russian negotiations are doing for Iran (i.e., assuring that no meaningful actions will be taken).

The terrorists will lose (ultimately) for the same reason street thugs lose. Civilized people are simply more organized, more focused on success, more adaptable, and value life and freedom over death than do the terrorists.

Anyone who doubts that our military (or even Israel's) will prevail are fools.

Extraneus

Assuming the real targets are Syria and Iran, but that they need to be drawn in in such a way as to incite public opinion before any effective allied military action against them could commence, the IDF is left with carrying out their stated objective of killing a large number of Hezbos. But how best to do this? Seems to me a few things are required:

a) Draw them near the Lebanon-Israel border

b) Trap them there (by lightening armored and airborne incursion and flanking, air force drones, helicopters, and whateve other means are available to seal off their rear)

c) Allow some civilians to vacate, but accept the fact that there will need to be civilian casualties

d) Kill the Hezbos

This might draw in Syria, which the IDF could then handle on their own, and if Iran wants to mount a defense, they'd have to deal with the US to do it, which is probably the ideal end-game.

From what I've seen of Israel's strategy so far, it seems to be all about drawing the Hezbos near the border.

larwyn

Vanderleun was finally writing a piece for his American Digest -
his last post there was July 18th. He titled it:War at Some Remove
Did I mention Gerard lives in Seattle?

I SIT BEHIND a shaded window in a small bungalow on top of Queen Anne Hill in Seattle. It's a smooth summer day. It began chill but warmed. In front of my porch, the lawn sprinkler makes slow sweeps. Across the street, the school playground plays host to a pick-up game of half-court basketball and a passel of kids on bikes and skateboards, all protected by the helmets and pads modern American parents feel compelled to encumber their children with;......
SNIP
......

That was as far as I got in writing about how strange it is to be Editor-in-Chief working with my colleagues to cover the MidEast War for Pajamas Media at this distant idyllic remove when this came through:


17:55 PDT "I'm a Muslim-American. I'm angry at Isreal."
At least one killed during shooting at Seattle Jewish federation. One person in custody........

RTWT

Vanderleun then posts this with photo of the Killer:

"Peace Be Upon You"

There'll be the breaking of the ancient
western code
Your private life will suddenly explode
There'll be phantoms
There'll be fires on the road
and a white man dancing
You'll see a woman
hanging upside down
her features covered by her fallen gown
and all the lousy little poets
coming round
tryin' to sound like Charlie Manson
and the white man dancin'.Give me back the Berlin wall
Give me Stalin and St Paul
Give me Christ
or give me Hiroshima
Destroy another fetus now
We don't like children anyhow
I've seen the future, baby:
it is murder.
- Leonard Cohen, The Future

And this excerpt from Ask Mom:
No, whether this man had explicit help from other Jihadists or not, today we smelt the first Islamist cordite wafting through downtown Seattle, felt the first piece of Jihadi shrapnel in our flesh. Jews have been first in the line of fire elsewhere; today they were the first fallen on Seattle's battlefield. They will not be the last; the baby killers and torturers of children have promised us that. -- AskMom: Fear and Pandering in Seattle
The AskMom, for now, writes for me.
Vanderleun : July 29, 06
http://americandigest.org/mt-archives/006432.php|

2+2 becomes more clear each day and CNN's wall to wall coverage of
the suffering of the "civilians" of Southern Lebanon won't change the
total.

Gerard has this quote heading his site now:
"If a camel flies, no one laughs if it doesn't get very far."- Paul White

Meaning we & Israel must absolutely DEFEAT THEM.

Other Tom

I think there are two important points to consider about these "networks":

--You allow one to develop on your border at your peril. I don't think we'll see that happening again soon.

--They can't become a serious threat without the support of a state. AK 47's and RPG's are a dime a dozen in that part of the world, but Katyusha rockets and Silkworm missiles are an altogether different thing. The problem can't be addressed without confronting the sponsor states.

pdq332

The "hiders" strategy works so long as the "finders" are squeamish about inflicting civilian casualties. The day will come when victory becomes more important to the "finders" than indulging squeamishness. It is an interesting coincidence that the leftist disproportionate rhetoric demonizing Israelis for the civilian casualties in Lebanon so far while ignoring civilian casualties inflicted by the other side is accelerating that day by encuouraging the "hiders".

Think about it: could one take over the whole world by taking a single hostage and threatening to do them harm if the world does not bend to one's wishes? No, because at some point the calculation will be made that more harm will be done to the world in aquiesence than the loss of a single innocent hostage. But the terrorists and dictators believe that the calculus changes when you hold enough people hostage, and that is exactly what is going on in Lebanon today. By holding the population of Lebanon hostage in effect (by shooting from beside civilians, hospitals, UN posts, etc) they are poised to extract concessions from Israel and the rest of the world.

This is why leftists need to be exposed for what they are: intent on doing everything currently in their power to make sure that the hostage takers win. This is why Israel must not make concessions and must not lose this war.

Rick Ballard

Cathy,

Mossad is in very good form in Nablus. An excellent Israeli gambit.

clarice

I'd bet that Abu Abbas gave the Israelis this guy's coordinates.It's great to fight people who are cutting eachother's throats.

PUK--Washing their turbans. HEHHHHHHHHHHHHH


lurker

IDF readies for new ground offensive in s. Lebanon

I've been at work all day so behind. Looks like Israel is preparing for new offensive. I knew that Israel had to go after rural areas as well.

I'm hoping that the diplomacy process will take a long time, which will give Israel enough time to weaken the Hezzies more.

lurker

UGH!!

Soros' writeup as to why war against terrorism won't work:

War

"A state of war constitutes a threat to civil liberties."

When has war never threatened civil liberties?

Ah...Fox News just reported that Israel met its objectives against Bint (daughter) Jbail and moving to other parts. Why would this be considered a loss?

PeterUK

Clarice,
Yes,"i can't come out to fight tonight,I've washed my turban and I can't do a thing with it".

PeterUK

"A state of war constitutes a threat to civil liberties."

Just as speculating against a country's currency and casting every man woman and child money is a threat to civil liberties.
In the same way a billionaire wielding vast political power is a threat to civil liberties.

R C Dean

Certain that other terrorists are learning from Hezbollah’s successes,

And at the moment, I'm not sure that Hez is racking up much in the way of success. Time will tell, of course, but since whatever successes it has are founded on being a proxy army for a foreign nation, given space and time to establish itself in a neighboring failed state, I'm not sure how "other terrorists" are going to replicate what Hez has done.

narciso

A curious detail is that the Hezbollah minister, who is the energy minister in
the Lebanese cabinet, who is a 'real
terrorist', is from Bint Jubayl, the
town currently under 'occupation", the
other HB minister is actually the Amal
labor minister.

Other Tom

From what I've seen, the physical description of the Hezbollah fortifications are indeed reminiscent of what the USMC faced in WWII in the Pacific from Tarawa onward. A huge difference is that in the Pacific, from Tarawa to Pelelieu to Iwo Jima to Okinawa, the civilian populace was not being used as human shields. (Except in the case of Okinawa, there was no civilian populace.) This is a crucial element in what these guys are doing, because they doubt that Israel and the West have the stomach for it, and they know the "free" media will be at their beck and call.

lurker

Now which report is accurate?

lurker

Other Tom, hence those two atomic bomcs...which brought the end to WWII or we would continue fighting for another 4 years. The Japanese people were like today's terrorists.

lurker

And this one, Other Tom?

Psychological Warfare Against Hizbullah

"IDF officers have said that Nasrallah is feeling intense pressure after Israeli soldiers eliminated a large percentage of his army and wiped out at least one third of Hizbullah's rocket firing potential."

As long as the Hezzies don't get resupplied, let the Hezzies rain northern Israel with their rockets. Assuming that IDF wiped out 1/3 of the Hezzies' rocket inventory and Hezzies used up 1/3 by now, they would have 1/3 left.

Just throwing numbers out...didn't Hezzies start out with 12,000 to 15,000?

lurker

Free Republic comments to the above article

Funny that AmericanUnited compared Nasrallah to Monty Python's Black Knight.

"Nasrallah is doing an Academy Award performance of Monty Python's Black Knight."

PeterUK

Lurker,
Hezbollah aren't a patch on the Imperial Japanese Army,a viciuos, brutal bunch but they were disciplined fighters whose officers fought with them,not like these hole in the corner bushwhackers.

ajacksonian

larwyn - My thanks! Luckily we are not talking about SkyNet War... then we would be in deep trouble...

The principles of the Net War that I see going on are that battle space preparation is now no longer the goal, but a cohesion of information garnered from personal, cultural, non-traditional Intel and that then added into those contacts to garner such Intel so as to perform pointed 'instantly cohering and decohering' operations. In this conception, larger battle formations are rarely used and instant 'ad hoc' agglomerations of 'whoever is available' now cohere quickly to perform cross utilization of strengths to cover each other's weaknesses. Thus infantry can now get a single armored unit to hit a hard point, while being overseen by a sniper, and providing side and rear protection. With further coordination given between individual units for such things as blocking exits and such, and then, after that is done, those forces remerge into previous duties. This conceptually becomes distributed force with instant point source supremacy.

Before OIF it was thought that armored units were extremely vulnerable in urban situations (Stalingrad). This CW overlooked the hard training done in MOUT operations and the slow understanding that in urban terrain the most valuable coordinating unit is the sniper. Infantry proved highly vulnerable to sniper fire and served to bottle up armor units by shaping the urban battlefield. To counter that, the US Armed Forces have trained and trained hard, for an integrated battlespace awareness from 30,000' down to inches from an individual trooper. This is *enhanced* via the use of local knowledge, custom and friendship, to establish where necessary overlooks are, where non-combatants are typically located and where troublespots are most likely to occur.

Michael Yon documented that the largest cohesive part of working with the New Iraqi Army was the commander to commander gift giving, in which local customs between equals enjoined that gifts be given for due respect. By doing so, cross-unit cohesion between US and Iraqi forces happened and grew over time. Via joint operations, learning local customs and how to ensure that civility is maintained, even when going after an objective, US forces in that region gained high respect and trust from local peoples. Once the trust network was fully in place, individuals within the US Forces learned from locals how to identify, corner and neutralize hostiles.

This is more than traditional 'hearts and minds' concepts, this is one of fully integrating and utilizing local capabilities with respect, honor and adhering to customs. Not just a show-piece to try to adapt, but a taking to heart and understanding and adjusting attitudes, outlooks and understandings by both locals and the US Forces. A high amount of training, 3 weeks or so, goes to units rotating *into* Iraq so that they will learn the basics of local customs and mores.

The yield of this was evidenced in Mosul when the top al Qaeda leader was finally fingered by a local who was threatened by that individual. The next replacement was easier to spot, no nicer and less capable, and within a few weeks was also eliminated. This trust grew as more terrorists, Ba'athists and general thugs were cleared out quarter by quarter in the city by local police, army and MNF. By the end of that cycle, new al Qaeda leaders appointed to *run* Mosul had a life span measured in hours, until the entire organization was compromised. Slow, steady and consistent approach won more than just 'hearts and minds' but established that it was possible to actually cooperate with local and MNF organizations to a common good. These individual ties soon grew to tribal and familial ones and reached further outward, and when new forces rotated *in* they had already been thoroughly trained, briefed and were up to speed on what to do and when. In two weeks of transition, the new forces were seen with just as much respect as those leaving, but the bonds of friendship would continue after that and still do to this day.

In Afghanistan US Special Forces used these similar ties to help identify and exploit Taliban and al Qaeda weaknesses, using precision targeting to prep the battlefield for the Northern Alliance. It would not be incomprehensible that Special Forces working with their more regular counterparts have started the initial deep understanding of Iran via familial and tribal ties and have a roster of what to hit and when for any future campaigns.

By these and other actions, the actual faultlines in the Middle East are now in play. Far beyond just mere religious ones, grossly oversimplified as Sunni/Shia, there are intra-sectarian conflicts, ethnic conflicts, modern and ancient cultural conflicts, and many, many others at play. By removing the stasis of authoritarian regimes from the terror training centers of Afghanistan and Iraq, two of the three major Islamic central zones that have been in stasis since 1945 are now fully in motion. Any view of the Hezbollah conflict must take this into account as the multifacted prism of it is *not* just religious.

The major viewpoint is that Iran (Persia) having a breakaway Shia sect is allying itself with or employing Syria (Assyria) so as to fund an exterior military organization. This is the Iranian Foreign Legion known aas Hezbollah. As the multi-time stated goal of Iran has been to unite the Arab world to re-establish the Islamic Caliphate, similar to but slightly different from al Qaeda's same stated goal, they are doing so using a trained and equipped exterior force as their National militaries are eyed with no trust. To attack outside of Iran to bring other Nations into line, it is necessary to *have* an external force. To take attention away from other things, Iran directed Hezbollah to do the usual 'kidnap and then claim victim status or play it up for world attention' scenario, which we have seen multiple times in the past. What was not taken into account was the slippage of the faults and the loss of Iraq as a static anchor. Suddenly the Hezbollah attacks and various bluster and warnings from Iran become pointed *dictation* to the rest of the Arab world. Persians dictating to Arabs does not sit well in that region... thus revealing the Golden Opportunity to actually expand the war in favor of the US and the West, if the opportunity is grabbed and backed. That isn't happening and slowly the sands will shift to cover the opportunity again...

Well, thats enough verbiage from me! Sorry to eat up your time...

lurker

Is this an army?

This pretty much BLOWS the law of war AND Geneve Conventions out of the water.

lurker

Ajacksonian, interesting post.

Good News from AJSTrata:

US Capture 4 AQ Suspects In Afghanistan

Can't wait to read about our troops making a sweep through Baghdad.

AJStrata thinks that AQ is linked to the Bombai bombings.

Bombai Bombings

Didn't someone post that Iran already provided a response to UN regarding its nuclear program?

ed

Hmmm.

@ Soylent Red

Actually **THE** most powerful new technology that's going to dominate the battlefield hasn't even really been invented yet beyond the most primitive and basic systems:

Telepresence.

This is where a remote operator sitting in a heavily secure location operates remote battlefield equipment through secure communications links.

The issue is that AI is still lagging heavily when people try to apply it to realworld battle situations. Shoot/No Shoot is still something you really don't want to leave up to an AI when you're dealing with small unit operations. It works, sorta, fine for UAVs because of a lack of obstacles, but ground based operations, particularly in urban areas, the AI is clearly not optimal.

Now there are combat robots currently in use in Iraq that do require an operator to guide and control it, but often times that operator is close by and therefore vulnerable to attack when immersed in controlling the robot. Additionally the current crop of combat robots are generally unarmed, track or wheel driven and are fairly slow and are restricted from the most difficult terrain.

Now the conditions that would give rise to a supposed "Net War" situation is where combat actions are short, very intense and with a high casualty aspect of ambush and counter-ambush. Something like this is perfect for a teleguided combat robot designed to operate in a highly volatile combat situation.

In such a circumstance a teleguided combat robot would be heavily armed and armored and capable of rapid movement along all three axis. The operator would be able to ignore many of the dangers that would otherwise induce caution in human infantry and massively raise the intensity threshold and tempo of the "Net War" battlefield. As anyone who has served in an infantry unit, or tank unit for that matter, the volume of firepower isn't as valuable as raising the battlefield tempo beyond your opponent's ability to respond. At that point command and control breakdown irrevocably and the defending unit is caught betwixt and between.

A teleguided combat robot could even be a standard part of a tank unit as it could provide integral offensive and defensive local operations against anti-tank forces.

It already is a reality that human and robotic combat forces interoperate. But this level of interoperation cannot easily be raised to a higher level until and unless AI technology becomes significantly better, assuming the various ethical, moral and Terminator issues are addressed. On the other hand a capable combat robot controlled by a remote human operator gives a huge benefit.

Besides. Such a system would tie directly into the current FPS gaming market as FPS players could translate many of their skills into realworld battlefields.

Additionally I could easily see something like this becoming a very popular combat oriented televised sport.

lurker

"Iran now fields an Army that it *directs* but does not directly *control*. They send expensive military tools and trainers for those tools and trainers for integrating operations to Hezbollah and NOT their own military which they do not trust. Iran, by doing this, is seeking hegemony over the Middle East via the proxy of Hezbollah and giving it the necessary tools and equipment to bring the rest of the Arab world to heel and threaten Turkey and South Eastern Europe, perhaps all the way to the lower part of Italy. If Iran can control Lebanon through Hezbollah and supply it with IRBM's, they will have a foreign controlled force to do its bidding in dictating its terms to how the rest of the Middle East should act according to Iran's wishes."

At their beck and call.

This is from AJacksonian's site. An important read, guys.

I wonder if Israel (plus USA, Britain, and a few allies) had this all planned out to get Iran pushed out in the front AND before Iran gets its first nuclear weapon.

Regardless, it looks to be a good war to study for the next few years. And will certainly help...er...both sides to figure out how to combat each other and win. USA has to stay...five steps ahead of these enemies. Sooner, the bettah!!

And little does Soros understand the importance of protecting the US constitution so that our civil liberties are proected.

larwyn

Ajacksonian & Ed,
Just read at BelmontClub how a drone spotted an HB "special forces" group on motor scooters who came into area to ambush Israeli troops pulling out.
IDF then able to fool the suckers and that's how the 26 dead Hezzies was accomplished. Many wounded and only 7 IDF wounded, one serious.

I feel there is no profit in the DOD or any of our commanders "bragging" on all our capabilities. Think they have realized that MAD is not a doctrine that scares those in the Islamic Death Cults. This also serves to make any casualties we do suffer lesser victories.

Of course, that quote that VanDerLeun has up on his site today
"If a camel flies, no one laughs if it doesn't get very far."- Paul White puts it all in perspective.

Would love more assurances of our effectiveness as reported from Yon, Roggio and others, but there is line. Don't know what it is as weakness invites attack. That "Speak softly..." seems best policy.

The "non-expanding" Israelis have bombed in Bekaa valley at Syrian border. Undercover soldiers in West Bank bagged 2 leaders, going into new village and
smashing Hamas targets/tunnels in Gaza. They are at WAR and minutes of the Cabinet are "LEAKED"?

On Home Front LFG reports:

Seattle Attacker Worked at Hanford Nuclear Facility?

"Tossed off at the end of this Associated Press story on the Islamic terrorist attack in Seattle is a little tidbit of disturbing information." (Hat tip: dlc.)


Yousef Shehadeb, 46, a member of the Islamic Center of the Tri-Cities, recalled Haq as quiet and something of a loner. Shehadeb said he and Haq’s father, Mian Haq, both work at the Hanford nuclear reservation, as do many members of the area’s Muslim community.


"Hanford Nuclear Reservation is the largest nuclear waste dump in the Western Hemisphere.
Pleasant dreams"...LGF

larwyn

FOX reporting that the FRENCH will lead the forces in Lebanon.

Not as bad as it sounds - CounterterrorismBlog had post up earlier with excerpt of article for Weekly Standard.

U S Marines were not the only victims of Hezballah in Lebanon. The French lost troops to them also. No love will be lost between
them - especially as the Hezzies are ruining Frenchmen's vacations and investments. Don't get between one and their pocketbook.

lurker

Interesting that France will end up leading the forces in Lebanon cuz I thought France was very reluctant to do so in the beginning.

Regardless, this new force had better STAND up to Hizbollah this time! Complete disarm and NO-rearm.

Belmont Club seems to paint a different story than what's reported on TV. Interesting that Israel reported that Bint Jbail is in complete ruins and not a 100% troop pullout. Looks like Israel is learning how to combat the mobile Hezzie.

100 to 150 rockets per day amounts to how many more days assuming Hez runs out and still has soldiers left. How many guerillas did Hiz have to start with? Anyone know? 2000?

Looks like several hundred Hezzies have been killed to date.

larwyn

From BelmontClub comments discussing admittance of Israel to NATO:
2164th said...
Nato will not accept Israel out of pity. It will do so when it understands that Israel off the table and part of Nato removes it from the tiresome game of ME politics since 1967. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are out of the game and would welcome it because it stops Iran dead in its tracks. Nato gets a lot out of it but they do notknow it yet because it needs to be talked about , thought about, argued about and then it will be clear. Nato has great prestige in the world, much more so than the UN. This strategy can be sold as the least worst alternative. It would work. it would be Nixonian in audacity, but don't tell anyone or it may queer the deal.

7:45 PM

Now wouldn't that really teach Iran/Syria/Hezballah a lesson.
Is such a thing too good to wish for?

"Amb" Richardson is scheduled on Sunday shows to continue to preach the direct talking with NK/I/S and
to get us to learn the successes of all those PAUSEfires.

Wouldn't an announcement of Israel into NATO STTFU!

So Israel gives back Shebba Farms and even the Golan Heights - but one hit on Israel means dealing with full force of NATO with U.S.
included.

END OF "HONEST BROKER" CRAPOLLA.

maryrose

Great comments on this thread. Family life kept me busy today;a 5 year old's birthday party[my nephew]and my own family's demands. Is a mother's job never done?[asked rhetorically}.
Rick, Clarice, Soylent Red and Larwyn. wonderful thoughts and strategies. I pray for victory for Israel. We have the terrorists on the run.

lurker

Now we know which side Syria is on.

If Syria had to smuggle rockets and other things to Hezzie, then that shows Hezzie having problems with its inventory.

IDF destroyed some of the shipments. Perhaps that's why they dropped the rockets against the Lebanese army base?

LATER the International Force, the better.

lurker

Will the lefty ever get this message:

If There Is No Moderate ME, Then What?

The Caliphate will spread worldwide - just like the Ottoman Empire tried to do but failed.

Other Tom

France is something of a natural choice for leading the way in Lebanon. They were "given" Lebanon as part of the League of Nations mandate carving up the old Ottoman Empire amongst the victorious European powers following WWI. They have a lot of experience there, and at least used to have a great deal of influence. Problem is, will they do it, and can they fight?

clarice

From Ynet:France, Lebanon to deploy to border with Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert meets with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at his Jerusalem residence Saturday night; Rice reveals initial plans for international peacekeeping force: France, Lebanese army to take part, and will also guard Syria-Lebanon border. Leaders agree diplomatic agreement dependant on release of kidnapped soldiers Ronny Sofer The French and Lebanese armies will take part in the multinational peacekeeping force expected to take position along the southern Lebanese border

Manolo

Two words: bug spray! Bug spray for humans that is, in other words, VX nerve agent. Pump the bunker and tunnel complexes full of nerve agent. End of story.

Another, cathyf I believe said: "...surrender to the Global Caliphate, or commit genocide against muslims."

I have no doubt of this, and when the time comes I hope we clean our own house of the people that made it necessary, the left!

-M

lurker

Hopefully those borders will NOT be as porous as ours and TIGHTLY monitored all the way. ME (and the world) cannot afford to allow Iran, Syria, and Hezzie any room to rebuild.

The next concern after this is Hugo Chavez.

Rick Ballard

"Problem is, will they do it, and can they fight?"

The bigger question with me is "Who will they fight for?" I count them as allies of Iran just as they were allies of Hussein. If the Israelis show them a list of French owned property in Lebanon and promise them that it will become a primary target list in the event that the French don't do the job, then they might do more than wave at the Syrian trucks carrying Iranian manufactured rockets to the Hezzies.

If they don't believe the Israelis then they'll be doing training and targeting for the Hezzies.

lurker

I wonder how much footprint USA will have in Lebanon after this war. And what kind. Only way to guarantee that this internaional force is to work are: 1) Periodic reviews. 2) Include a contigency or two as part of the diplomatic deal. 3) USA involvement.

larwyn

WSJ's Editorial Report on FOX tonight.
Great guest comments (doing dishes so didn't get name) but worth savoring.
The gentleman who apparently has lots of experience in Leb/Syrian politics said "diplomatically" -
those who are suggesting that the U S deal directly with Syria "have no memory.
Baby Assad wants to be a player and can under no circumstances give up relationship with Iran.
= They would be interested in getting the US & France to drop pressure to "solve" the Hariri assassination.
= But IF THEY GAVE UP IRAN/HEZ
they have absolutely nothing else.
They are not "players".

"They will never give up Iran

How about we begin to call all the "successes" that Christopher writes of ----and that "AMB" Richardson and Sen Shummmy will speak of tomorrow as
PAUSE-fires
better still is MISS-fires.

Israel in NATO - what dreams are made of.

Stacy

Hezbollah isn't some scary new thing, it's a conventional army operating in small units. The Germans did this in the Argonne, the Americans in the Hudson Valley, and soforth. Beyond that, a Hezbollah-style force still depends on mafia-style integration with its host community and therefore can neither project power nor (quickly) relocate outside its established base. An enemy with fewer scruples about civilian casualties would destroy it in short order. The only real takeaway for Iran and China is the field-testing of some of their new weapons against a modern western military.

The takeaway for the US is that the Ahmadinejad regime is serious about waging proxy wars, the answer to which is an early demonstration strike on Iran itself.

larwyn

You'll want to read this. Are they all really getting ready for August 22nd:

Is Viktor B. Flying for Somali Islamists?

By Douglas Farah

Twice in one week the airport at Mogadishu, Somalia, was the scene of something almost unseen in the past decade-the landing of two large Soviet-era IL-76 cargo planes, among the biggest in the world, capable of carryng more than 50 tons in its hold. The airport is under the control of the Islamis militias that are intent on turning Somalia into an Islamic nation governed by a radical vision of what sharia law implies. Few flights have landed there at all in the past decade....

...On the first flight, the plane was painted with the "UN" markings denoting Kazakstan registration, with no other identifiers.....

Links to BBC and photo at link.

larwyn

OOPS! better.

Soylent Red

Telepresence.

Ed:

Right on brother. The Israelis have been dealing with this nonsense longer, but unfortunately with less of a techno edge.

The key to beating net war, or any network (hacker, organized crime, etc. ) is tracking movement and affiliation.

We've already got DARPA level "smart dust" and "rods from God" on the drawing board. These two technologies trump any JSF aircraft in terms of the wars (better term is low-kinetic/high intensity conflict) we're gonna be facing.

Cell phoning IED explosions becomes a lot more difficult when convoys have predeployed smart dust to monitor movement and beam telemetry to killer satellites.

Human ingenuity meets near-pervasive techno observation and orientation. Let's see the Caliphate keep pace with that technology. Especially when we suspend educational visas to suspect Gap states.

Hezbollah isn't some scary new thing, it's a conventional army operating in small units.

Stacy:

The Hezbians are in fact a very old thing, not to be confused with A-Q. Hezbians are much more dependent on traditional state sponsorship, which makes them both more vulnerable and more operationally conservative.

The key to Hezbollah is making state sponsorship non-congruent with Syria's and Iran's individual power structures.

Both have significant domestic unrest. Amp up that unrest, and both will have better things to do than fund Hezbian nogoodniks.

That, I believe, is what is slated. Isolation of Hezbollah from their sponsorship, while pressuring the sponsors in ways that hurt domestically.

Larwyn:

Belated welcome back.

Somalia is undoubtedly scheduled to become the next Taliban Afghanistan. The real question is what that means.

SOCOM types have been inside Afriocan since 2001, working with AU forces on counter-terror training.

Africa is also deep economic empire for China.

Finally, Somalia has an aura of bad vibration for Clintonistas, but a lot of the conservatives I know (some who served there) see it as a blown opportunity to stabilize the Horn.

What will happen, I don't know. What I do know is that networks who are succeeding capitalize from their successes. They don't move to an independent front, which Somalia most certainly is.

The assholes are losing and are looking for fertile ground to regroup. Would be cool to see a joint NATO-AU force sweep in and bag the lot of them.

Soylent Red

been inside Afriocan since 2001

Er... Africa rather.

Beer. Typing. You know.

clarice

If we subtracted points for typos, I'd owe TM more than I could earn in a lifetime.(And remember the after midnight rule.)

larwyn

Soylent,
Don't you think that France going to Lebanon is a good thing.
Olivier Guitta posted at Counterterrorism blog that
he..

just wrote a piece for the Weekly Standard on French-Hezbollah relations in light of the surely increasing French role in diplomatic negotiations.

He reminds us that the Hezzies also murdered French soldiers.

If they are in there disarming/fighting Hezballah, can they then not be tough on Iran with strong sanctions? Well, they are THE FRENCH after all.
Hope Poland has people in there to
watch them.

Your thoughts?

Bob

Good article by a West Point Grad about what we're up against http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ideas_opinions/story/439083p-369945c.html>Terror's playbook

"The plan, according to Naji, is to conduct small- to medium-scale attacks on crucial infrastructure (like oil or tourism), which will cause the government to draw in its security forces. Chaos or "savagery" will erupt in the unpoliced areas.

Then, the jihadis will move into these security vacuums and provide basic services to people, who will welcome an end to the instability. The final goal is to establish a single global state ruled by a pious Muslim dictator, the caliph, who will implement a strict interpretation of Islamic law."


Sounds and looks familiar!

Extraneus

Yesterday, in a comment in this thread, cathyf said it well, and I agree: "[W]e are inexorably travelling towards a doomsday scenario, where we will have only two choices -- surrender to the Global Caliphate, or commit genocide against muslims."

Here's a video linked at LGF entitled Obsession. It's a full-length movie, and quite well done. For anyone who wants to spend the time watching it, notice the throngs in Lebanon.

BumperStickerist

I'm missing something here.

Israel can move freely throughout the battlefield airspace and launch precision guided missiles and their ground forces can fire sighted large caliber artillery on the order of several thousand rounds per day, and is 'losing'

Hizzbulah is launching, basically, big-ass bottle rockets blindly in the direction of Northern Israel at the rate of 100 per day, and is winning?

Look, if Hizzbulah were given the chance to launch all 10,000 Katushyas at the same time, you'd still have Israel. Hizzbulah, not so much.

Here's some relevant information from FreeRepublic:

Anyone know the size of a Katyusha explosive payload (warhead)?"

Heh heh.

One landed about 70 meters from me in Kiryat Shmona in 1992. I have no idea what the warhead officially is, but I would desribed the experiance then as a similar explosion to an anti-tank mine (ie. you wouldn't want to be next to it or take a direct hit - but not too traumatic if your over say, 25-50 meters from the impact. It drilled about a three foot crater into the tarmac.

We all had a laugh at the time, the idea that the height of their ballastic expertise was effectivley a big hand granade on a stick, which due to accuracy 'issues' their targetting was only as specific as 'Northern Israel'. Until, next morning when we stopped laughing finding out a 14 year old had been killed in the same barrage about a mile away.

It's a terror weapon, not a strategic one. It wouldn't even be that scary if they didn't have so many of them. Maybe only one in 100 causes any trouble at all - but when they do strike 'lucky'....

And that's the nub of the problem - a 'lucky' hit.

One thing I've noticed is the granularity with which the news about war is reported. We're in a place in military campaigns where noted Mid East experts like Juan Cole can post this on July 25th:

The Israelis are stumbling around so badly that yesterday they lost a helicopter and killed 6 of their own men (it could have been much worse).

For god's sake, Juan, get a grip. A military helicopter in Israel hit some powerlines. That's not 'stumbling around' or indicative of Israel's overall ability to execute a military plan.

What's more worrisome is that single incidents like that become the focus of the event.

War is non-fractal, you can't work your way back from 'a helicopter accident' to the bigger picture.

-

lurker

Sigh...

Seeing a few articles about condemning the Qana bombing, then you see this.

Qana civilians WERE warned to evacuate by Israeli. Why? Because the Hezzies were fired rocket at Kyriat Shmona and Afula from Qana.

Hey, you world, don't condemn Israel until you check out the facts. Perhaps the Hezzies refused to allow the civilians to evacuate or they would be killed.

lurker

Of course it's those in support of the Hezzies that are condemning Israeli over the Qana bombings.

lurker

Yuppers! Israel did indeed have something up its sleeves. The pullout from Bint Jbail doesn't mean it's a loss.

IDF Preparing Ground Incursion, Setting Table For Int'l Forces

From Captain's Quarters.

Looks like Israel is setting up the ceasefire in its favor. Be ready for some really, really hyped up bad news, starting with Qana.

lurker

So Kofi Annan called an emergency meeting with the UN Security Council at 11 ET today. Bolton will vote down on anything that favors the Hezzies and condemns Israel. They need to blame the initial attack....use of civilian homes to fire rockets against Israel.

Bob

EX that was great! A real eye opener.

Not how I expected to spend Sunday morning since this "obsession" of theirs is very very scary!

PeterUK

The Katyushas are a member of a family of area bombardment weapons designed by the Soviets.
The use of the rockets singly as a terror weapon is unorthodox,but probably reflects the vulnerabilty of batteries to air attack and counter battery fire.
As they are used, by Hezbollah,with sleaves filled with ball bearings round the warhead,these Katyushas are really only effective as anti-personel weapons,as such the are breaking the Geneva Convention.

Other Tom

The issue for me is whether Qana is going to become some sort of "tipping point" for the world and US media. (I'm afraid it will be.)

On the afternoon of September 11, while my wife and I continued to watch the TV in a state of shock, a talking head appeared and said something that I have thought about continually ever since. He said that in the coming years the US is going to have to be "ruthless." I had no doubt then, and have none now, that he was absolutely correct. And I had serious doubts at the time about whether the US could, indeed, be ruthless, and nothing I have seen since then alleviates those doubts. (See, among a million other things, the recent Supreme Court decision in the Hamdan case.) These people have tailored their warfare to take advantage of Western revulsion at inflicting civilian casualties, and they are extremely astute in doing so.

lurker

Siniora just called Rice that he is no longer interested in having diplomatic talks with her and calls for an immeidate and UNconditional ceasefire.

Somalia's use of UN logo on its planes is responsible for the same committed by Hezzie on the civilians of Qana.

Who's responsible?

Michael Totten confirms:

Free Ain Ebel from the terrorists!

"No one is allowed to argue with the Hezbollah gunmen who wont hesitate to shoot you and i ve heard about more than one shooting incident including young men from the village and Hezbollah."

How come Kofi isn't condemning the Hezzies for killing the civilians????

Perfect Weapon

lurker

Vololhk has the story about the photos, which explains why Qana was bombed:

Photos

This is called, "Party of God"?????

OT: Ted Kennedy's Op-Ed rebitted by Jonathan Adler and Wittes at Volokh site.

Bob

If your stomach can take it this early in the morning.

Go over to the http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1768949>DU for a look at what one moonbat thinks. Only an opening post, but I'm sure it'll be populated in due time with more insightful quotes like this one:

"The ridiculous and callous approach of Bushco, from the first days of their 'ascendancy' into power, was to do "everything the opposite of Clinton." Regardless of the policy."

ajacksonian

lurker - My thanks and I do have a nasty and suspicious mind when it comes to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. The terminology that they are issuing to other Arab Nations is not that of 'equals to equals', but of superiors telling their lessers what to do. By using a civilian ship for target practice, Hezbollah and their Iranian trainers have done us the good favor of giving us an insight into their objectives.

On a more general view, Hezbollah is stuck with its hand in the cookie jar and its bluff being called. Brag about 13,000 missiles and you had better be prepared to use them all. The Fajr-5 is no real menace save as PR, and Iran or Syria seem unprepared to deploy TEL missile types (SCUDs and NoDong) to Hezbollah. Anything that leaves Hezbollah as a fighting force and able to control territory is an abdication of responsibility to the Nation of Lebanon and a broader threat to the Middle East. Leave Hezbollah after all of this, and Iran can claim victory and superiority in that doing. As someone pointed out, the KSA threat against those committing violence and *supplying* it is a pointed reference NOT to Israel, but to Iran. For once a Middle East conflict involving Israel is not *about* Israel, but of supremacy in the Arab world and the ability to dictate a single sect of Islam by gaining ascendency. Iran and Syria hoped to use Hezbollah to incite the standard inflammatory rhetoric against Israel and further hide their deeds. A decade ago this would have been a few border skirmishes, a cease fire and some sort of prisoner exchange. Without Iraq to serve as a stolid bolster for the other regimes in the region, there is no counter to Iranian expansionism, especially if Syria is complicit or turning into an Iranian client state. The Arab world is no longer in stasis after Iraq, and is shifting slow and hard to this new world.

Egypt has long history with Jews and their States, and has seen Israel as enemy/buffer/somewhat friend depending upon era and political circumstance depending on who was on the other side of Israel. That local political reality is now returning and Egypt needs to re-assess its views on Israel and its own internal Islamic Fundamentalist problems. Iran via Hezbollah has targeted shipping, and perhaps that *was* an Egyptian vessel, although certainly manned by Egyptians. Let Israel fall, and those missiles then can hit the Suez and begin to harass shipping. Let Lebanon fall fully into Hezbollah's hands and it then becomes a site for launching heavier *guided* missiles over the Eastern Med. Neither of these is a *good thing* for Egypt. Or Jordan. Or Turkey. Or the northern oil pipelines and outlets of KSA, which would then put both Persian Gulf and Red Sea assets under the gun. Or South Eastern Europe which was *once* under Islamic control... So add in Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria... a potential target list starts to become *very* expansive if Iran has indirect or direct control of missile launch capabilities in Lebanon. At that point they would not need to target Israel anymore to get their point across.

As a side note, I remember a report just after OIF coming in from Sudan protesting that Syria had moved WMD's and missiles into the area. So there is a chance that Iraqi WMD material wound up that region...

lurker

Saw this link over at Volokh about movie propaganda:

Landes

And if you really want to get even sicker, watch Noam and other left-wingers

Regardless of the policy? Hhhmmm...confusing comment.

K T Cat

Back in 1967 you had the entire Arab world attacking Israel. Now you're down to Syria, Iran and packs of nihilistic teenagers. That's called "losing."

There was a WSJ article that talked about Syria's economic situation. It turns out their oil reserves run out in 2008. Their limited supply of oil is what is being used to finance their state-run industries which perform on par with state-run industries everywhere. Very badly. For Baby Assad, it's now or never. Two years from now he's looking at a declining economy and a population growing restive.

To me, the underlying assumption of this wonderful thread (I've learned so much from all of you in the last 30 minutes!) is that the opinion of the MSM will direct our acts. Sherman's march through Georgia was done in the name of a nation that had had its fill of war and just wanted the thing finished once and for all. That's what war looks like when you don't give a darn about what the MSM thinks.

Unfortunately, a terror war fights through the press. Without the press, there is no effective projection of power. (Stacy, I worship you. Your comment was fantastic. I will be using it in an upcoming post on my blog.)

More accurately, without an ignorant press, terrorists cannot effectively project power. Juan Cole's panicky comment about the helicopter is a great example. A sophisticated press would report the destruction and the casualties, but then point out the casualties caused by the Luftwaffe during the Blitz. You would get the news reported honestly, but the terrorists would come across as the mosquitos they are.

Extraneus

Yeah, Bob. It's not fun to contemplate cathy's "doomsday scenario," but those massive crowds of fanatics screaming for our death invariably conjure up a mental image of a giant flame-thrower helping them achieve their dream to die for Allah. Maybe that's still too politically incorrect, but the alternative isn't any more appealing.

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