Prospective New House Chairman

The NY Times looks at the roster of Democrats who would chair the various House committees *if* the Dems reclaim the House this November and follow their past practice of elevating members on the basis of seniority.  After noting the Dems that scare Republicans, they eventually get to He Who Must Not be Named, the Dem that scares even the Dems (Spoiler - it is Alcee Hastings of Florida, who would chair, no kidding, Intelligence).  Here is the second paragraph:

In fund-raising appeals, on the Internet and in stump speeches, Republicans raise the specter of a Judiciary Committee headed by Representative John Conyers Jr. of Michigan, a banking committee steered by Barney Frank of Massachusetts, a tax-writing committee led by Charles B. Rangel of New York, and an energy panel under the leadership of John D. Dingell of Michigan.

Alcee finally appears in paragraph sixteen:

Other positions are more problematic. At the Intelligence Committee, Representative Alcee L. Hastings of Florida, who was removed from the federal bench in the 1980’s, is in line to take over, although that decision would be the responsibility of Ms. Pelosi and could prove explosive.

"Removed from the federal bench"?  He was impeached by the House for corruption and perjury and "became only the sixth Judge in the history of impeachment in the United States to be removed from office by the United States Senate."  However, the good people of the great state of Florida have sent him to Washington, so here we are.

And what is happening to Jane Harman, the ranking Democrat who gained national prominence when the NSA warrantless wiretapping story broke?  Per the operation of term limits within the Democratic Caucus, she is slated to be moved aside as ranking Dem in favor of Alcee (she is also in a primary tussle).  Steve Clemons attributes this to internal Dem politicking by Nancy Pelosi and the Congressional Black Caucus.

Paragraph seventeen gives us a whiff of the Conyers problem:

And some Democrats are nervous about the prospect of a Judiciary Committee led by Mr. Conyers, who has raised the prospect of impeaching President Bush, a notion that Ms. Pelosi has sought to bat down.

Not only has Ms. Pelosi sought to bat it down, but someone has exhorted Mr. Conyers to clean up his campaign website - the "Before", currently available in Google-cache, highlights the prospect of a Bush impeachment on the main page; the "After" has been revised to soft-pedal that goal.

At this point, Tradesports has the Reps with a 47% probability of retaining control of the House; the Iowa Electronic Markets seem to be at 54%.  Anyone who can explain that apparent gap, feel free (and if I am reading on of these two sites backwards, well, it's a weekend in the summertime...)

MORE:  My favorite Conyers moment came when he and Rep. Louise Slaughter bit on a Daily Kos misdirection play and put out a press release alerting the world that "reporter" Jeff Gannon/James Guckert had special access to the CIA / Plame scoop.

The Times believed the Kos Crowd as well, but eventually got to the truth - Guckert had simply been reading the Wall Street Journal.  Guckert eventually as much as said so in a Times interview:

Mr. Guckert denied seeing a Central Intelligence Agency memorandum disclosing the identity of Valerie Plame, a C.I.A. operative, even though he had strongly insinuated as much in an interview with her husband, Joseph C. Wilson IV, the transcript of which he posted on the Internet.

Mr. Guckert's phrasing in that interview so strongly suggested he had seen the classified memorandum that it brought F.B.I. officials to his house as part of the Plame leak investigation, he said. But he said referring to the memorandum as though he had seen it was merely an interview technique. ''What I said was no more than what was reported in The Wall Street Journal a week before,'' he said.

Comments

[SteveMG]

Holy sugar.

Send this to every knucklehead who wants to send a message to the Republicans by voting Democratic or staying at home.

For some reason, these folks think the message won't also be received by the Left and also by the Islamists. Maybe not the one they intended to be sent but a message nevertheless.

Knuckleheads.

SMG

[rqballjohn]

Sell every stock you own - the market will fall if the antibusiness pro-tax dems are in charge. Who would want to invest in US companies that are going to be under every investigation and anti business legistration from a congress lead by socialist.

[SteveMG]

and anti business legistration from a congress lead by socialist.

Well, Bush would veto most of that real damaging legislation. And no one believes that the Democrats will win enough this November to override vetoes.

President Pelosi, however, would gladly sign such legislation.

That would be the least of our problems. We'd have so many planes flying into buildings that al-Qaeda members would have so many frequent flyer miles that they could fly for free.

SMG

[George Dixon]

Are Democrats hypocrites....?
Let's see,
Democrats: Party of the People, workers, the underclass, gays, the poor, minorities....right?

Lamont: White male heterosexual, corporate type, exclusive country club, inherited wealth (from JP Morgan's loot no less), $30 million house, campaigns with anti-Semites Maxine Waters, Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton (all Conn residents donchaknow!)...... opposes a Jew who started his political life working for voter rights for Blacks in the south.

For sure Lamont is the REAL democrat, he's anti-war, anti-Bush and who no doubt has lots of Negro friends.........
He is popular, why he raised over $2 million from himself......

Thank Gia for Ned "Man 'O the People" Lamont! Should he win he'll join another exclusive club.......the five richest Senators in America would be Democrats.........

Gee, America could be a great place if only Ned Lamont and more Democrats get elected!

[windansea]

OT but I'll bet Spamin Sam will like it

Service in Iraq: Just How Risky?

By Samuel H. Preston and Emily Buzzell
Saturday, August 26, 2006; Page A21

The consequences of Operation Iraqi Freedom for U.S. forces are being documented by the Defense Department with an exceptional degree of openness and transparency. Its daily and cumulative counts of deaths receive a great deal of publicity. But deaths alone don't indicate the risk for an individual. For this purpose, the number of deaths must be compared with the number of individuals exposed to the risk of death. The Defense Department has supplied us with appropriate data on exposure, and we take advantage of it to provide the first profile of military mortality in Iraq.

Between March 21, 2003, when the first military death was recorded in Iraq, and March 31, 2006, there were 2,321 deaths among American troops in Iraq. Seventy-nine percent were a result of action by hostile forces. Troops spent a total of 592,002 "person-years" in Iraq during this period. The ratio of deaths to person-years, .00392, or 3.92 deaths per 1,000 person-years, is the death rate of military personnel in Iraq.

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How does this rate compare with that in other groups? One meaningful comparison is to the civilian population of the United States. That rate was 8.42 per 1,000 in 2003, more than twice that for military personnel in Iraq.

The comparison is imperfect, of course, because a much higher fraction of the American population is elderly and subject to higher death rates from degenerative diseases. The death rate for U.S. men ages 18 to 39 in 2003 was 1.53 per 1,000 -- 39 percent of that of troops in Iraq. But one can also find something equivalent to combat conditions on home soil. The death rate for African American men ages 20 to 34 in Philadelphia was 4.37 per 1,000 in 2002, 11 percent higher than among troops in Iraq. Slightly more than half the Philadelphia deaths were homicides.

iraq death rates

[windansea]

oops sorry about the extra stuff

[Javani]

"Who would want to invest in US companies that are going to be under every investigation and anti business legistration from a congress lead by socialist."

Is this site turning into kneejerk right-wing wacko-dom of the Libertarian/"Pro" business sort?

[boris]

Hope so

[Rick Ballard]

Pelosi, Frank, Conyers and Rangel are all members of Socialist Bernie Sanders Congressional Progressive Caucus - the 'Rent Seekers 'R' Us' wing of the party. They're proud of their socialist beliefs and I think that they are a wonderful advertisement for progressives in general. Why, if you looked at the cumulative total of their IQ scores it would come close to the level of "genius".

What's wrong with pointing out their political leanings? Considering their line of work, that is.

[jerry]

Hey, change is good - especially when oversight is non-existant. Is this the USA or China?

[Beto Ochoa]

All you need to do is remember 1993-94 and how the leftist democrats jumped the shark so hard that many of their moderates left the party. After 12 years without a democrat in the whitehouse they thought they finally had it made but became unhinged with their new found power. The result was their loss of dozens of senate and house seats. The last thing we need is for democrats to be in power again. They are not at all serious about the dangers we are facing not just as a country but as a planet. I'm not pleased with the republicans but they are going to be easier to tame than a democrat party that has lost all bearings, sucks up to socialist dictators and is heavily influenced by racist wealthy elite bigots who view the rank and file as meat not worthy of their own opinion if it conflicts with their masters dogma.

[Clyde]

Man, talk about a horror show! That M. Night Shymoleon dude's got nothing on the Democrats for scaring the hell out of people!

[Barney Frank]

Not to worry TM. Once I'm steering the banking committee all you'll have to do is make it worth my while and I'll be sure and steer some banking your way.

[hrtshpdbox]

"Is this the USA or China?"
The USA, I'm pretty sure.

[MayBee]

Conyers and Hastings are the two that horrify me. Conyers is a Kos diarist and a whacky pot-stirrer. Hasting's record speaks for itself.

As for Pelosi, even my Dem to the bone husband thinks she doesn't seem very bright. The Dems better get their party line-up in order if they want to be voted in as a party.

[talboito]

The Stock Market has traditionally done better under Democratic Presidents.

Just as well, Democrats have controlled Congress during some of the lengthiest bull markets in our nations history.

[boris]

The Stock Market has traditionally ...

Democrats have changed some. Also it helps to have both parties promoting economic strength. Dems and their MSM have a nasty habit of trying to spook the herd when there's Republican presidents. Same on national security.

[maryrose]

Boris:
I like that term spook the herd. It describes the dems to a tee. Unfortunately it's true the dems have no real leadership. The one sensible leader {Lieberman} they are trashing and trying to defeat. Too bad Breaux and Zell Miller are gone. The dems like lemmings are headed off a cliff.

[Rick Ballard]

"The Stock Market has traditionally done better under Democratic Presidents."

A study of Nobel laureates shows that over 98% of them were fed milk as infants. The same goes for convicted murderers, oddly enough.

[PeterUK]

On the bright side,Reuters armour has taken a hit A news agency with its own armour????

[jerry]

Dems and their MSM - you surely don't mean Fox, Limbaugh, and the WSJ, or any number of local conservative papers and radio stations. Even before Fox I though the "liberal press" was, mostly, a canard (ok, the Post and Times and major TV networks were probably liberal once...).

Dems spooking the herd - but the Democrats are famous for being unable to ever agree on anytnhing, the herd mentality applies better to Republicans/investors IMO.

[Rick Ballard]

"A news agency with its own armour?"

Sure, the Pali's know how to take care of their propagandists. I wonder if that's the model with the kiddie corpse chiller? The Pali's have a nice system that allows their Reuter's personnel to purchase props and keep them nice and fresh - none of that 'slightly green' look that the hezzies are forced to endure.

I wonder when the fauxto ghouls are going to realize that the only reasonable interpretation of a PRESS sign is that it's an instruction to the pilot with his finger on the kill button?

[NoFearCavalier]

Holy Fear Mongering Batman!!!!!!!!!

Got anything substantial on why Republican candidates need our support, or are vague threats of a Barney Frank in leadership positions the best we can do? lol

[Lew clark]

This gives me a similar chill as reading a report that the Convicted Felon Party has a good chance of taking control of congress in the next election. Complete with a list of death row inmates that will be released to take committee chairmanships.

Actually it's the same thing. Just a bunch of "unconvicted felons" trying to take over.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Tom, the Tradesports vs Iowa Markets gap is the natural result of imperfect information: two partially disjoint sample groups (there are probably at least a few common traders) will arrive at different equilibria.

Now, go look up "arbitrage".

[jerry]

Lew, Lew, Lew, unconvicted felons is a bad topic for the party in charge these last few years... as in many previous years (true of both parties admittably).

[PeterUK]

Rick,
Perhaps there will only be balance in the MSM when its representatives fear both sides eqaualy.

I recommend this

[Other Tom]

"ok, the Post and Times and major TV networks were probably liberal once..."

Right--they're real middle-of-the road these days. And Jerry, those are precisely the folks we mean when we say "MSM," although you have to throw in Time and Newsweek as well. Anyone who calls Fox or Limaugh MSM is involved in a different converstation altogether.

[Rick Ballard]

Peter,

It appears that China has pulled the plug on Ahmanutter's joint Islamobomb development with the NorKs.

Maybe we'll let China submit a tender for the provision of occupation forces for Iran after all. I favor a no bid award to the Indians but this is certainly a nice gesture by China.

I wonder if Koizumi's visit to the Shinot shrine got their attention?

[PeterUK]

I don't think the Norks will miss the oil since they have nothing to run on it,and since the last dog claimed asylum in Australia,nothing to fry in it.

[hrtshpdbox]

"Now, go look up "arbitrage"."

I'm not familiar with the Iowa betting exchange, but I do know TradeSports, and it's exactly because of arbitrage that the two sites won't differ appreciably in odds (assuming that the proposition is the same). Buying a new GOP house at less than 50 sounds like a pretty nice wager.

[Rick Ballard]

Shorts aren't allowed on the Iowa exchange. I may be missing something but if you can't short on the Iowa exchange, how can you take advantage of what would be an admittedly great arbitrage play?

[clarice]

Koizumi was very smart.

[clarice]

Last week I read that China urged Cuckoo Leader to come for a visit pronto.

I suppose there is something to multiparty talks after all, Tranzi Kerry's bleats to the contrary notwithstanding.

[jerry]

Yikes! A firefight!!

[patch]

As of a few minutes ago, Tradesports and Iowa were back in sync. Both show the probability of the Republicans holding the house to be about 47%.

I'm one of the people buying the contract. What you try to do is sucker the dumb-ass lefties/Dems to sell you a contract at a low price.

At 47, they're laying out $5.30 until November, while I'm laying out $4.70. When the contract closes, I'll get $10.00 if the Republicans hold the house.

If we could get enough lefties/Dems into the game, we could get the price down to about 30 or 35. Then I'll really make some dough.

For those who really care, according to Tradesport, the chances of Lewis Libby being convicted are 40%, and Tom Delay being convicted is 25.5%. I'm not trading either one of those because there is not enough liquidity in the market. Less than 1500 contracts have traded in each one.

Why do the markets fall out of sync? In the case of IEM, there are not enough participants as of this date. IEM is actually part of the graduate curriculum at the University of Iowa. Schools not in session yet. So someone buying right now will wind up overpaying. Eventually the markets return to norm.

[larwyn]

"All sin leads to murder, including, if not especially, the sin of lying."
....Walter O'Brien*
This is certainly a quote worth saving and I could not but use it to introduce Austin Bay's new post:

What Bill Clinton Knew and When He Knew It "GatewayPundits title for Tom Nichols piece at Austin Bay

*The Same Old Viet Nam Lies Again
by Walter O´Brien
Aug 25, '06 / 1 Elul 5766
is a great article on the HEZ/Israeli war. Find the link at
Irish Pennants, Jack Kelly's blog.

[clarice]

Patch, whisper in Jason Leopold's ear and cross his palm with silver..something like, sealed v sealed is going to be unsealed the week before the election and it is an indictment of not only Rove but every single Republic member of Congress as well..Let us know before publication so we can be lined up to place our bets.

[GM]

Dems spooking the herd - but the Democrats are famous for being unable to ever agree on anytnhing, the herd mentality applies better to Republicans/investors IMO.

Ha. Does this sound familiar "If the Republicans are elected there will be burning churches"..."If the Republican's are elected they will bring back the draft" ...."If the Republican's are elected, they will take away the black vote"... "If the Republican's are elected they will start a Nuclear War (that was the Gipper-heh)"

Yep, scaring the herd baahhhhh baaahhhhh baahhhhh baahhhhh baaahhhhh baahhhhh baahhhhh baaahhhhh baahhhhh baahhhhh baaahhhhh baahhhhh baahhhhh baaahhhhh baahhhhh baahhhhh baaahhhhh baahhhhh

[hrtshpdbox]

"If we could get enough lefties/Dems into the game, we could get the price down to about 30 or 35. Then I'll really make some dough."
The lefties are there in profusion already, but they're not quite dumb enough to sell at any old price - the 47 trade price really is current perception of value based on the steady MSM drumbeat on dwindling GOP chances. It doesn't help things when Republicans in tough fights start "moderating" their Iraq views. It doesn't help that John McCain is up to his old tricks. Now, stories about the Dems who would take over leadership positions, THAT'S gotta help.

[GM]

Sorry, my mistake baaahhhs are from flocks.. Yeah, scaring the flock that's the ticket.

[John Williams]

Why you clowns seem to favor a one party system is beyond me. You idiots claims to be in favor of competition except when it comes to running the country. SHEESH. The republicans are running the country into the ground. What keeps you from seeing that?

[jerry]

I understand that I am an Antagonist on this blog and I do regret this recent swarm of hooligans. Very sorry for that... however, do I detect an evil conspiracy brewing? Where do these people come from?

[JLawson]

John Williams:

It's not Republicans running the country into the ground I'm worried about. What DOES concern me is how badly the Dems are liable to fuck it all up if they get back into power. They're acting at this point like they don't have a damn clue and think simply having a (D) next to their names is sufficient reason to vote for them.

Goddam! The Repubs are running the country into the ground! What are ya gonna do about it? "We'll do something different!" Okay, WHAT? "We'll raise taxes! We'll make peace with Radical Islam! We'll give everyone a fluffy bunny!" Damn. That's reassuring. Is that supposed to be sufficient reason to vote for Democrats?

It's NOT. I need a real, good, sufficient reason to vote for a Dem again, and in all honesty there's not a damn one that acts like they can think their way out of a paper bag, much less find solutions to the problems facing this country. (I'd say there was one, Lieberman, but they kicked his ass out for using his brain without authorization.)

We're facing unprecedented problems, and I'd rather hand the country over to a Boy Scout troop than the current crop of Democrats. The Boy Scouts would at least ADMIT they don't know everything, and would be looking for ways to solve the problems. The Dems KNOW what the problems are and KNOW what to do about them, and despite the fact their solutions in the past have done nothing but CONTINUE the problems (because a solved problem is worthless for campaign promises) I'm supposed to vote for them?

Nope. Better get a new crop in, and fast. Or the Democratic Party's gonna join the Whigs in history's dustbin.

[Clyde]

<>

Nicely said!

[Clyde]

Let's try that again...

>>Applauds JLawson<<

Nicely said!

[TC@LeatherPenguin]

I live in trading commidities. You all vote like morons, follow the polls, and gimme Dems. I got my shorts and have banked my longs.

I've also bought two new Mossbergs.

I consider that my arbitrage.

[Bob]

JLawson, you hit it out of the park. Unfortunately for Mr. Williams, I think he's even afraid of a "fluffy bunny".

Once again "we" get blamed for the self destructive nature of the Dems. I guess Karl Rove once again worked his magic and got Lamont to step up an challenge old Joe.

And I do believe the MSM has once again has given the Dems a false sense of hope with the upcoming elections. So when Fitzmas doesn't come once again, it must mean that the Grinch - better known as Karl Rove - has once again broken their wittle hearts...

[Meep]

If you can't short at Iowa, then who is selling those contracts? If what you mean by not being able to short is that once the initial bunch of contracts is written no extra can be added, then I understand.

And arbitrage can certainly exist, for at least a short amount of time - in what volume and how often are these contracts traded? It doesn't seem like an overly active market, to me.When it's akin to a $5 you've got, or the max profit you can realize is only a couple hundred, you don't have that many arbitrageurs out there. It's more worth their time looking for arbitrage in more lucrative markets.

[Meep]

By the way, the Dems used to not have so many nuts possibly in positions of power. It's their own seniority system that's causing it to a certain extent, and though I do believe that they'd change that system the moment they get unacceptable chairmen from it, I don't think their bench is very deep. But deep enough to prevent a provably corrupt person from being in charge of intelligence. No, not all pols, even Democratic pols, are actual crooks.

If there are enough Dems to take over the House, I think there will be enough sane Dems to change the rules. If they know that disaffection with the overall party (not just with the President) is what got the Repubs kicked out, 2 years with attention-seeking loons in charge of important committees will be more than enough advertisement to get the Dems kicked out again. Those "competitive" or even "safely Democratic" districts might turn again. But if they feel they =must= give Alcee his turn at committee chairmanship (otherwise they'll be labeled racist), then they deserve whatever they get in 2008.

I'm not going to have a stroke if the Dems take over the House (if the Repubs keep the Senate), as it's mainly going to mean absolutely nothing gets done. The various idiots will have their little show hearings, and they might even get an impeachment out of it -- though what's going to happen to it in the Senate? Even if the Dems were in charge there, not much unless they really want to kill their party. We can see how powerful Pelosi really is in holding back the loons. I think they know how bad it damages the prospects of having a Dem President, much less holding on to the House, to let their worst impulses reign.