"This Is Making Me Nervous"

Diogenes can put down his lamp - Rahm Emmanuel, commenting on the latest polls showing a Republican resurgence, delivers one more honest comment than we expected to hear from politicos on Election Eve:

Mr. Emanuel, who has been careful this campaign to avoid the public expressions of optimism voiced by other Democrats, added, “This is making me nervous.”

Nervous?  I don't know if we can make it safely home, but we're rounding third and we are going to make Rahm show us whether he can deliver a strong throw from the outfield.

Aaah!  I'm blocking - "we're rounding third and we are going to make Rahm show us whether he can deliver a strong throw from the outfield" is clearly out-of-season.  I have to let go.

OK, Rahm Emmanuel is nervous?  He oughta be nervous - we're going to juggle a Hail Mary at the back of the end zone and try to get both feet in.  We're going to grab a fairway wood and hit for the flag.  We're putting ten men in the goal mouth.  We've got a buzzer-beater in the air!  We're pulling our goalie and rushing the net.

We're going to keep people up late on Tuesday.

Captain Ed and Noam Scheiber comment on the latest polls.  In short, they are, for Dems, either bleak or ghastly, depending on one's perspective.  And Karl won't need to worry about dispirited volunteers failing to make a strong final push.

I stand by my bland, CW prediction - Dems win the House, Reps keep the Senate.  However, based on the latest polls I will add that Ms. Pelosi will govern by a thread, and the Senate won't be suspenseful - Talent, Allen, and Burns will win their 'toss-up' races, as will Corker.  I'm saying good-bye to Chafee but have high hopes for Kean in NJ and Steele in Maryland.  Pencil me in for 53 Republican Senate seats - per the Times Election Guide, that is  47 "Safes", 2 "Leaning Rep", 3 "Toss-Ups", and 1 "Leaning Dem".

Let's keep moving and get this tedious "What Did The Election Results Mean" piece out of the way right now - I have a little free time, and who knows what Wednesday will bring?

The Dems win the House, the Reps hold the Senate - it's all good for the Republicans!  No, really.

First, control of the House means that the Dems will have a modest obligation to negotiate amongst themselves and advance legislation.  However, they have not demonstrated an ability to unite on much more than a boost in the minimum wage - I don't think they can lead themselves to a party consensus, let alone lead the rest of us to a national consensus, on the big issues of the day.  And Nancy Pelosi seems to agree - for examples, her strategy on Social security reform was "Just Say No" and her plan for Iraq was to let a thousand flowers bloom, as each member offered their own plan.  Consequently, putting the national Democrats on stage and handing them a microphone should embarrass them and help the Reps come back in 2008.

Democrats ran many moderate and conservative candidates - victory will make it difficult for them to mask their divisions with the party leadership.

Since Republicans will hold the Senate, Bush can still pick his judges (great news for Harriet Miers, good news for Reps generally).  The rest of whatever might have been presented as a Bush legislative "agenda" will stall, but given his great success with Social Security and immigration, I was not looking for much from Washington in the next few years anyway.

And keep in mind - if the Rove stuns the commentariat by holding the House, the Democratic Party will explode in recriminations.  Did the moderate Dems lose because they ran as "Republican Lite" and weren't Democratic enough?  Does the party need to lurch left? 

Or did they lose because of the spectre of Nancy Pelosi and the unreconstructed Old Guard chairman that would hold the real power in a Democratic House, and is it time to move right?  That is the sort of debate that would be healthy for the Dems and fun for the rest of us.

So, my fellow Reps, sit back and enjoy Election Night - we are keeping the Senate and the Dems are either going to win a booby prize, to wit, the obligation to stop hiding from America, or they will lose the House and tear themselves apart.  Be cool.

Comments

[Neo]

This election is shaping up to produce the weakest Speaker of the House in probably 3 or 4 decades, so I'm not sure who to cheer for.

[clarice]

Mr. 70% has spoken (wink).

[Neo]

No matter the outcome, Bush should push Social Security reform. It will lose in the short run, but 10 years from now it sure will play real well.

[Sue]

Here's hoping the "Tuna" isn't coaching, TO isn't showboating and the freaking kicker can kick a field goal. ::frown::

[jerry]

"Be cool." Tell that one to Libby Dole! Hahahaha

[Semanticleo]

:We're going to grab a fairway wood and hit for the flag."

Or, we're going to Diebold the electoral process, or SCOTUS the Nation once more or........HT Kevein Drum;

DIRTY TRICKS....The latest campaign trick from the fine folks in the Republican Party is to make repeated robo-calls to voters that sound as if they're from Democratic candidates. Do it often enough and voters will be so pissed off at their local Democrat that they'll just stay home instead of bothering to vote. Clever, eh?

TPM is all over this if you want the details, but here's the gist from a House race in New Hampshire:

Incumbent Republican Congressman Charlie Bass denounced the calls yesterday and said he tried to get the NRCC to put a stop to them. But a spokesman for the NRCC said the automated phone calls would continue indefinitely.

"The calls will continue as planned," said Alex Burgos, a spokesman for the NRCC, the national group charged with electing Republicans to the House. "They are done independently of Charlie Bass's campaign. He has nothing to do with them."

Ignore the question of whether Bass is denouncing the tactic or merely "denouncing" the tactic. Instead just think about what's going on here. In every election, there have always been individual wingnuts who go over the edge with desperate campaign tactics. It happens on both sides. This time, though, the desperate tactics are coming straight from the Republican central committee. What's more, there's not even a hint of embarrassment. In fact, they sound pretty proud of themselves.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

I think Lee Atwater called it RatF---ing.
Nobel cause, yours.

[clarice]

Schumer (per FNC) has admitted that the Dems will not win the Senate.

[Greg D]

R's take the House, winning both Foley's and Delay's districts ("Punch Foley for Joe!"), and picking up at least one of the GA Democrat House seats.

One of the big pieces of news is that Ohio is counting the absentee ballots right now, and will release those resultsTuseday after the polls close.

Which means we'll get some immediate feedback on how the various GOTV operations have done in that state.

Someone needs to get people predicting, now, what various results will mean (i.e. R's need 55% to win, D's need 55% to win, whatever).

[clarice]

Will they blame Diebold or Kerry?

[Jacko]

Never have we seen the MSM so clearly take off their mask. Every day they are now openly campaigning, spinning and writing new stories for the Left. If the Dems don't take the House, look for an even more accelerated, hysterical move to the Left by the MSM as they hasten their MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction).

THAT will be the fun of the next few years. Pelosi will get screechingly boring.

[Neo]

Nancy Pelosi's strategy on Social Security reform of "Just Say No" plays perfectly into a legacy building Social Security reform campaign by Bush in his last two years.

No matter what happens in the next two years, come ten years from now, when the Social Security taxes are less than outlays and the shortcomings will have to be made up "on-budget", Bush will look like a ...king genius, a President ahead of his time.

The Republicans will have a long (but unimportantly failed) record of trying to do something ahead of time, while we will see countless reruns of the Democrats jumping to their feet to applaud when Bush, in the last SOTU, said Social Security reform had not succeeded.

[Jane]

As of yesterday, Chafee was winning, so I wouldn't write off RI. I want Steele to win, maybe more than anyone. I'm impressed by him. I'm not sure Allen will pull it off. I also am really hoping people punch Joe for Foley. Time to hand the HRC a dose of their own medicine.

[Neo]

Why has nobody mentioned the "Jefford's factor" ?

With the Democrats running so many DINOs, there should be a few House members' loyalty up for auction, in return for a plum committe membership or two.

[granny]

A reminder to all those who want to "teach the Republicans a lesson" by electing Democrats -- the last time you did that it took us 40 years to get back in. That's F.O.R.T.Y. Four decades!

[SamuelK]

The poll results depend on who answers the telephone as well as who gives an honest answer - there are so many push polls that many likely voters are just hanging up. Then there are the somewhat subjective weightings that the polling outfits assign - based on the pollsters' models of party preference and likelihood of voting.

It is difficult to tell which pollsters are trying to be the most accurate, and which ones are trying to influence the election. In the latter category, some media have been known in the past to bury polls - on the eve of elections - that ran counter to their editorial position.

CNN has a poll today still favoring the Democrats, but today's Fox News poll also shows Dem leads holding. CNN's poll supports their increasingly anti-Republican slant, but Fox has published a poll that is contrary to the "election shifting to Republicans" trend being touted by their on-line personalities.

Are voters inclined to follow a trend, or instead to make an extra effort to vote if their party/candidate seems to be running behind?

[windansea]

Mr. 70% has spoken (wink).

as I said in another thread...

If TM is wrong again he can go for the trifecta with a Libby prediction

[vnjagvet]

As of 3:15PM EST, Major Garrett at Fox News says that the "most optimistic" GOP insiders say net loss of 12 in House, and most say net loss of 20 for GOP. Dem insiders say 20 to 40 gain for them. Major's take is GOP loses House.

I go with Rick Ballard at YARGB myself, who is more optimistic than Major's insider. Rick has a pretty sophisticated analysis which, IMHO rivals the best on camera analyst Michael Barone in its depth.

[Pofarmer]

Never have we seen the MSM so clearly take off their mask.

Yep. Just heard a news report a while ago about the verdict in the Saddam trial. The newsmonkey was sure to mention the Sunni's protesting and how "directionless" they felt, whatever that means. No mention of the thousands celebrating in the streets. Hmmmm.

[windansea]

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

I'd prefer a Cohiba

[clarice]

I agree vnjagvet. I think if you read Barone carefully, he is not yet willing to be optimistic as everything is so fluid..but if he weren'e on camera and were a friend, my guess is he's closer to Rick's take on it..in fact, I heard him say much the same thing the other night before these polls came out.

Turn out is everything..

It's also why I agree with Jane on Kerry's affect--it was stronger than the polls reflect.

[clarice]

I agree vnjagvet. I think if you read Barone carefully, he is not yet willing to be optimistic as everything is so fluid..but if he weren'e on camera and were a friend, my guess is he's closer to Rick's take on it..in fact, I heard him say much the same thing the other night before these polls came out.

Turn out is everything..

It's also why I agree with Jane on Kerry's affect--it was stronger than the polls reflect.

[Jane]

Tee Hee, I got agreed with TWICE!

[clarice]

"Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois today urged hundreds of blacks not to vote along racial lines next week in Maryland's Senate race. Obama, the only black U.S. senator, came to the state to rally support for Democratic Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin, who is white. Cardin's Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, is the first black candidate ever elected statewide and has been courting black Democrats."--Associated Press, Nov. 3

"The nation's only black senator, Barack Obama, D-Ill., asked voters at two black churches and at a Nashville rally to elect [Harold] Ford, a Democrat who is trying to become the first black senator from the South in more than 100 years. 'I know that all of you are going to work the next couple of days to make sure it happens, because I'm feeling lonely in Washington,' Obama said at the Mt. Zion Baptist Church. 'I need my dear friend to join me.' "--Associated Press, Nov. 5

http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110009206

Jane--one post for each Obama.

[topsecretk9]

Don't forget Nancy Pelosi went missing after the 60 minutes interview!

Democrats have not advanced one iota of a platform other than to oppose Bush...and the undecided or people just tuning learned Nancy-- in an effort to tamp down impeachment rumors --basically telegraphed that Democrats have no other agenda but to stall government and do nothing.

Hearing -- making him a lame-duck is good enough for me - translates to

DOING NOTHING FOR AMERICANS is good enough for me!

Also, she fumbled the gay marriage question in that interview...Gay marraige is not an issue were fighting right now.

[T Miller]

It seems ironic to state that Pelosi has disappeared when the leading House Republican, Hastert is even less visible.

[clarice]

She quite obviously was away getting a face lift.

[Don]

No that would be Cheney's latest hunting partner.

[maryrose]

Newest waffle by dem Senate candidate Casey- Now he is for PRIVACY RIGHTS!. That switch didn't take long. On all other issues of interest-he is an empty suit with a name. What a shame!

[danking70]

"Will they blame Diebold or Kerry?"

Kerry. A ritual sacrifice will follow on Wednesday.

[robocalls]

robocalls robocalls robocalls

very troubling...

[clarice]

How you can tell Steele is winning:

"Ehrlich to push for an extension of the deadline for voters to postmark absentee ballots. In a letter to Ehrlich dated Sunday, the group asked the governor to instruct his appointees on the Maryland Board of Elections to allow ballots postmarked on election day to be counted. The current deadline is today. The letter cites shortages in absentee ballots because of the high number of requests this year. The letter comes on the heels of a similar request by a coalition of attorneys' groups and civil rights organizations.... "

http://wjz.com/topstories/local_story_310102437.html

[topsecretk9]

- I want Steele to win, maybe more than anyone. I'm impressed by him. --

Jane...I swear this race reminds me of CA Recall - Davis vs. Schwarzenegger

Right up to election day there were polls saying both Davis and Bustemante were way up on Arnold...yet there was a huge grassrooty undercurrent the media just couldn't (or didn't want to) tap.

[Bob]

Good Read!

A premature election orgasm

"For fifty years or so, poll takers could find enough people in the the target groups to make reasonably good prediction.

What has changed today is a massive revulsion among conservatives and Republicans against the media and their handmaidens, the pollsters. The polls now have to guess at (a) and (b) among the conservatives. You can’t check on your sample if your target group won’t answer. Twenty years ago Black opinion would be consistently off, because Blacks were suspicious of White pollsters. Conservatives are the Blacks of today, as far as alienation from the media is concerned."

[jwest]

I know you will think this is too optimistic, but here is the final total:

House - GOP down 4

Senate - GOP up 2

Mark this down so you can tell your grandkids you were there when the prediction was made.

[maryrose]

jwest:
I like how you think. I also don't think the clueless dems realize how devastating Kerry was for them. The dems don't realize that the majority of Americans want us to win in Iraq and know that the dems are NOT committed to making that happen. I also think Steele will win and I love how Obama is forced to talk out of both sides of his mouth. Too bad he doesn't have the courage of the 5 African-American leaders in Maryland backing Steele.

[anonymous]

I'd prefer a Cohiba

Posted by: windansea | November 06, 2006 at 12:19 PM

Are those legal?

[anonymous]

She quite obviously was away getting a face lift.

Posted by: clarice | November 06, 2006 at 12:50 PM

Would you like a saucer of milk now, kitty?

[clarice]

Check out Nancy's new face lift:

http://www.darleenclick.com/weblog/archives/2006/11/ah_most_of_nanc.html

[Specter]

Gotta love Tic comments about Repubs trying to cheat. Tic - you ever hear of ACORN? 35,000 bogus ballots submitted through them, openly campaigning for Mccaskill, and they are now being investigated in numerous states. More than conspiracy theory...unlike your crazy assertions.

But I'll let you in on a secret Tic - we knew what you were gonna say. We've been tapping your phone lines and internet connection for years...and now we've got bugs planted. Probably gonna declare you an "enemy combatant" soon....you know what that means - gitmo and waterboards. Get packed....

[maryrose]

a face lift for Nancy will hopefully rid of that ferret face fox like look.-Meow!

[PeterUK]

"I'd prefer a Cohiba

Posted by: windansea | November 06, 2006 at 12:19 PM

Are those legal?"

Are you cabananonymous?

[maryrose]

Tic:
get all your dem lawyers ready for the inevitable recounts where you try to impose your will on the people who vote. Get all those extra ballots out of storage just in case you need them.And for God's sake let the FELONS vote!

[anonymous]

Well, if a "Cohiba" is a Cuban cigar, I will have to ask: why would anyone hate America so much that he could even imagine smoking one?

[anonymous]

And for God's sake let the FELONS vote!

Posted by: maryrose | November 06, 2006 at 01:37 PM

Yes, it would be a crime indeed if Randy Cunningham and Bob Ney and Jack Abramoff are disenfranchised.

[Specter]

Of course TIC is probably against letting the troops vote by absentee ballot....

[anonymous]

Of course TIC is probably against letting the troops vote by absentee ballot....

Posted by: Specter | November 06, 2006 at 01:40 PM

But Sean Hannity says that some people are just too dumb or uninformed to vote.

[anonymous]

Uninformed and uniformed ... only a consonant's difference ...
Coincidence?

[anonymous]

November 6th, 2006 I guess this means no “George W. Bush Square” in Baghdad, after all

Neocon warmonger and Iraq War booster Richard Perle turns on Bush, like a starving cur:

Richard Perle, who was chairman of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee until 2004, told Vanity Fair magazine associate editor David Rose that the team that executed the war was dangerously out of control.

“The decisions did not get made that should have been,” Perle said, according to a report on Vanity Fair’s Web site. “They didn’t get made in a timely fashion, and the differences were argued out endlessly. At the end of the day, you have to hold the president responsible.”

Quite a change from September, 2003:

“A year from now, I’ll be very surprised if there is not some grand square in Baghdad that is named after President Bush.”

Last year witnessed Perle’s continued delusion:

“I will be surprised, yet again, if we do not see a square in Baghdad named after this president.”

I suppose this means Perle has finally changed his mind about that “grand square” in Baghdad, after all.

Well, as they say, failure is an orphan.

Posted by Alex at 11:40 am | Martini Republic

[clarice]

He's talking about Armitage and OPowell, not Bush.

[anonymous]

Sure he is. The President of the United States obviously had nothing to do with the invasion & occupation of Iraq. He was probably clearing brush when the decision was made.