Choking On The Coffee

The Times ruins their reader's delightful Sunday morning in April with news from Anbar Province in Iraq:

Uneasy Alliance Is Taming One Insurgent Bastion

By KIRK SEMPLE

RAMADI, Iraq — Anbar Province, long the lawless heartland of the tenacious Sunni Arab resistance, is undergoing a surprising transformation. Violence is ebbing in many areas, shops and schools are reopening, police forces are growing and the insurgency appears to be in retreat.

“Many people are challenging the insurgents,” said the governor of Anbar, Maamoon S. Rahid, though he quickly added, “We know we haven’t eliminated the threat 100 percent.”

Many Sunni tribal leaders, once openly hostile to the American presence, have formed a united front with American and Iraqi government forces against Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. With the tribal leaders’ encouragement, thousands of local residents have joined the police force. About 10,000 police officers are now in Anbar, up from several thousand a year ago. During the same period, the police force here in Ramadi, the provincial capital, has grown from fewer than 200 to about 4,500, American military officials say.

At the same time, American and Iraqi forces have been conducting sweeps of insurgent strongholds, particularly in and around Ramadi, leaving behind a network of police stations and military garrisons, a strategy that is also being used in Baghdad, Iraq’s capital, as part of its new security plan.

Yet for all the indications of a heartening turnaround in Anbar, the situation, as it appeared during more than a week spent with American troops in Ramadi and Falluja in early April, is at best uneasy and fragile.

Municipal services remain a wreck; local governments, while reviving, are still barely functioning; and years of fighting have damaged much of Ramadi.

The insurgency in Anbar — a mix of Islamic militants, former Baathists and recalcitrant tribesmen — still thrives among the province’s overwhelmingly Sunni population, killing American and Iraqi security forces and civilians alike. [This was underscored by three suicide car-bomb attacks in Ramadi on Monday and Tuesday, in which at least 15 people were killed and 47 were wounded, American officials said. Eight American service members — five marines and three soldiers — were killed in two attacks on Thursday and Friday in Anbar, the American military said.]

Furthermore, some American officials readily acknowledge that they have entered an uncertain marriage of convenience with the tribes, some of whom were themselves involved in the insurgency, to one extent or another. American officials are also negotiating with elements of the 1920 Revolution Brigades, a leading insurgent group in Anbar, to join their fight against Al Qaeda.

These sudden changes have raised questions about the ultimate loyalties of the United States’ new allies. “One day they’re laying I.E.D.’s, the next they’re police collecting a pay check,” said Lt. Thomas R. Mackesy, an adviser to an Iraqi Army unit in Juwayba, east of Ramadi, referring to improvised explosive devices.

And it remains unclear whether any of the gains in Anbar will transfer to other troubled areas of Iraq — like Baghdad, Diyala Province, Mosul and Kirkuk, where violence rages and the ethnic and sectarian landscape is far more complicated.

Still, the progress has inspired an optimism in the American command that, among some officials, borders on giddiness. It comes after years of fruitless efforts to drive a wedge between moderate resistance fighters and those, like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, who seem beyond compromise...

The Democrats own defeat in Iraq, and are simply maneuvering politically with hopes of forcing Bush to declare it before John Hillary Obama takes over.

And the Republicans own what?  Quagmire?  Hope?  Victory?

Both parties are making a twenty-year bet somewhat reminiscent of McGovern 1972, and at least one party is going to lose.

 

Comments

[Specter]

Finally the MSM is catching on?

I really don't have much hope that is the case. I suspect it is a momentary loss of insanity.

[BarbaraS]

The Times have to print something. More and more good news is coming out of this area. Of course, they have damned the surge with faint praise. They still have to print that we are still losing in Iraq even with these wins. They have to say the wins are fragile and shaky at best. But in order not to entirely lose their credibility they have to print something.

[PeterUK.]

I won't believe a word of it until Mullah Hari al Reid issues a fatwa.

[ajacksonian]

What is forgotten out in Anbar is that not all of the tribes were loyal to Ba'athists or Saddam, and were treated just like anyone else the tyrant didn't like: they were targeted for special treatment by the various secret police organizations. Last AUG-SEP the tribes formed their own coalition and shifted to government allegiance in Anbar and that winning over of the tribes (25 of 31 locally) started the influx of Sunni Arabs into local police and the New Iraqi Army. Additionally the tribes agreed to slowly integrate their existing militias until better forces could take over for them. Looking across the spectrum of Iraq one sees a mosaic theme arising of how little trust the local people have in *any* government due to the level of terror and death inflicted on them over the decades of Saddam and Ba'athist rule before him. Even under Saddam Falluja was considered to be a relatively lawless place and US Forces coming in saw that the most reliable, trustworthy unit of government was the *family* not necessarily the *tribe*. Any one who has lived in any Nation on the planet that has some basic government that is quasi-reliable will not see that. Even repressive regimes get a bit of tempering out in regions far from direct control across the Middle East and Africa. What it takes to so play tribes against each other that families inside them no longer give them full trust is a long-term attack on civil society.

Even where the tribes have remained in relatively good standing, like Ramadi, the MNF-I could not do more than basic garrison there for years and only late last year did that change. The slow turn of Ramadi and the day-in, day-out of retaking neighborhoods from al Qaeda is slow, but with help from Iraqi Army and Security Forces this has happened to the point where re-opening factories will start this year and actual *employment* begin. As factories depend upon supply chains and infrastructure for water, sewer and electrical services, that means they are also coming along. Still the distrust in places like Ramadi is one where they have actually trusted the Iraqi Army *more* than neighboring city's police forces. That, too, is a telling sign of long term social structure decay that was specifically done by the previous regime.

For those wondering why the older styles of counter-insurgency were not done, that single underlying reason of no *trust* in any government structure is it. The 'oil drop' concept, even in Nations that have a reliable government and some small amount of trust have problems, long term, with quelling insurgencies. To this day in South and Central America, parts of Africa and Asia there are still ongoing, low level insurgencies that have been going on for decades with the occasional bomb blast, assassination and general terror attack on governments and civil organs of government.

From two on-the-ground sources we get that direct view that the Ba'athist regime did not stay around to be held accountable but disintegrated. Both John Burns and Michael Ware have stated as much after spending years talking with folks on the ground in various parts of Iraq. As all the pre-war plans counted on there being something left of the Ba'athist regime they all failed in the non-presence of it post-conflict. The dismissal of the regime was not a sending home of anyone, but a recognition of there was no one there in power *to* send home. Even if we had more than a few weeks of reliable HUMINT, this would not have been expected as those Nations *with* reliable HUMINT did not warn us about the frailty of Iraqi society.

In the West we assume much about society, continuity of government and basic understanding of why even awful government needs to be kept around to prevent anarchy. Saddam's regime removed that as a viable basis for any post-war work and had spent decades at just that work attacking the next most reliable form of trustworthy government: the tribes.

How long does it take to establish that level of trust for basic services that are *not* used as a cudgel against people within a society? A decade? Two? A generation? Two? Three? That can and must be done, primarily by Iraqis, but they are pointing out that their indigenous forces are still only about half-strength at this point in time. Out of all the Provinces Iraqis completely control 3 of them, and the rest are held under Iraqi command but via MNF-I control, with a couple of them, like Anbar, still uncontrolled.

The tribes stepping up to the plate is a matter of their placing trust in their government and the MNF-I. They have had first-hand experience with an Iraqi Army that actually *helps them* and *defends them* and finds ways for society to be knit back together. Yes, Sunni tribes in Ramadi and Falluja trust Shia members of the IA and ISF! That is not a country heading towards sectarian 'civil war', but one with externally funded and employed insurgencies infiltrating men, arms and cash to undermine what is being built. This is a grave threat to extremist sectarian groups across the Middle East and is forcing them to coalesce to counter this.

That is what one party in the US wishes to abandon: common civil government held in common by a people of a Nation of all ethnicities and all religions. Run away from that and you run away from the Peace of Westphalia in 1648... the basis for Nation States to allow people within Nations to have separate outlooks in religion. It took hundreds of thousands, millions, dead in Europe due to religious wars to establish that. 15-20% of the population base in the 30 years war *separate* from plagues, although that sure did not help. That is Western Civilization having found accommodation of religion separate from Nation. Enemies who target that are striking at the underlying foundation of Nations to have democracy, to have liberty separate from religion of the State.

A very strange thing to retreat *from*.

Not protecting it can expect to see decades like the 30 years war on a global basis. If you think a car bomb or two a day is hard, imagine the scale of violence that will remove 15-20% of the present day global population over the next 30 to 100 years. And no assurances that Nation States as a concept will survive. Our Enemy opens up that pre-1648 world and is slowly taking out those old concepts and dusting them off. They like that idea of Religion over all of Mankind.

And it is no help that some folks want to prop the time vault door open and point out the best ways to bring down Nations or just cheer them on. A lacking in a basic survival instinct, that... how unfortunate that they are the woolly, gelatinous, spineless masses sitting Upon the Hill and at the levers of government.

[Digger]

From a few days ago “the tipping point in this war” doesn’t depend on what happens on the ground in Iraq, rather what happens in the minds of the drive-by media here at home.

[kate]

I think the real frustration here is the total lack of fight left in President Bush. He has many opportunities to take on his domestic enemies. For instance, after Pelosi's disastrous trip to Syria, he could have sent a team of diplomats to "repair the damage". Put those fools on the defensive for a change. He's just not in the game.

I hope he vetoes the bill with a group of Silver Star recipients in the background.

His communication skills have gotten worse, not better. Heck, even little Jessica Lynch has improved her communication skills. She performed well at Waxman's show trial.

Bush's performance last week with the Japanese Prime Minister was a disaster.

[Other Tom]

Bush does, indeed, seem to have lost his stomach for counterattacking the Democrats. I believe he is simply determined to continue to carry on in Iraq until January 20, 2009, in the hopes that that will be enough time to allow the Iraqi political establishment to survive as a democracy.

It is crystal clear that the Democrats are actively hoping for a defeat. Anything other than outright defeat would be disastrous for them, as they have repeatedly declared that it has already occurred. It's quite a shameful spectacle.

[Cecil Turner]

I'm not sure what the President can do to affect public perception. His use of the bully pulpit is obvioulsy less than optimal, but the media response (focusing on minutiae, airing opposing views after each event, and questioning every assertion) is far more effective at opinion shaping.

The media myths are more persistent than reality. For example, check out yesterday's Truth: first casualty of Iraq, which hits all the bases:

• No WMDs or programs were found;
• Wilson debunked the Nigieren forgeries;
• The forgeries formed the basis for the uranium claims;
• The WMD assessment was based almost entirely on "Curveball" and stovepiped intel from Chalabi.

If you look at the amount of Administration time and effort that went into debunking these contentions--including declassification of the NIE, public statements from the CIA chief that Wilson's report never mentioned documents at all--you can see it's a losing proposition. In fact, far from proving the main points that the consensus of the intel community supported Administration claims, minor caveats were trotted out as further evidence of duplicitousness. The bottom line is that the media runs the story, and if they insist on lying about it, they can.

[kate]

I actually think President Bush's last energetic performance was in the 2002 campaign. In 2004, his effort was mediocre and he almost lost to a weak candidate. His debate performances were just bad.

But 2005 was the pivotal year. The media decided to run down his numbers and they did it very successfully. He never fought back. It might be too late.

I get the impression he is tired of the job. He needs a team of top communication experts to fight daily the lies if he is too tired.

I am frustrated with him. He's not just fighting for himself, he needs to fight for the country, the troops and his supporters.

I notice even Steyn and Hanson are now getting depressed with him.

[Other Tom]

On the other hand, there is this absolutely wonderful news:

"The Harris Poll. April 20-23, 2007. N=1,001 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"How would you rate the job House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is doing: excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?"

2/2-5/07
Excellent/Pretty Good 38%
Only Fair/Poor 45%

Compare those numbers with those of less than three months ago:

4/20-23/07
Excellent/Pretty Good 30%
Only Fair/Poor 56%

Considerting that she has been speaker for less than four months, these numbers are (to use Harry Reid's words) "compelling and astounding."

[Other Tom]

As you can see, I screwed up the placement of the numbers. The April numbers should have been displayed first, followed by the February ones. But you get the picture: she's real low, and going down.

[kate]

Other Tom...this is good news. I look forward to seeing how Bush handles the veto this week. He can use this as an opportunity to restructure the debate. I'm hoping for a strong performance and when he speaks I hope it is concise and strong, without stammers or hesitations.

[boris]

the media runs the story, and if they insist on lying about it, they can.

This is the bottom line. Blaming Bush for this reality is pointless. Reagan was able to overcome this for a few years but if you recall his second term, it was also blighted by the same forces.

The choices are: (1) Stand firm and pretend to ignore it OR (2) do something about it. Look what happened to Libby when Cheney tried (2).

In fact option (2) is really a job for the VRWC. Instead of compaining about Bush ... conspire.

[PeterUK.]

Boris,
I would agree.We live in an age where there is no truth only competing narratives,time to weave a new narrative.

[clarice]

The weaving's been done..the need is for a better channel to communicate them more broadly. (Sadly the owner of one of the biggest IT sites--FR--seems to be going thru some kind of breakdown.)

[PeterUK.]

Clarice,
Word of mouth,rumour,a bit of scandal,a dash of intrigue and lashings of conspiracy.

[clarice]

For that, we certainly will need your master touch and how can we at SCAM spare you?

[PeterUK.]

Thank you Clarice,
The most pressing question is why Nancy Pelosi could find the time to go to Syria to meet the dictator of a tin pot resourceless nation but would not deign to meet with General Petraeus,the commander of your troops in Iraq.
What a terrible snub to your gallant military,dare not Pelosi not look them in the eye as she betrays them.Or are they beneath her?

[clarice]

I am waiting for Chavez' battleship to sail into SF Bay so I can reprise Lotte Lenya's Und das Schiff mit acht Segeln und mit fünfzig Kanonen

[PeterUK.]

Clarice,
Won't be long before the Barbary slaver's galleys are mooring in SF bay.

[clarice]

Heh--there are so many bondage fanciers there, the ship will be overrun by volunteers.

[lurker9876]

And Pelosi and Reid will welcome those Barbary pirates with wide open arms, according to Doug Ross!!

Well, well, looks like freerepublic took a major hit. Check sweetness and light.

[PeterUK.]

Clarice,
We can sell them tickets,but they will have to offload their offsets cheap!

BTW,it might pay to stir up the netroots

[lurker9876]

Thank you Clarice, The most pressing question is why Nancy Pelosi could find the time to go to Syria to meet the dictator of a tin pot resourceless nation but would not deign to meet with General Petraeus,the commander of your troops in Iraq. What a terrible snub to your gallant military,dare not Pelosi not look them in the eye as she betrays them.Or are they beneath her?

Because Pelosi was handling another version of the House Defense Pork bill. Apparently, Pelosi had already made up her mind and did not need Petreaus' inputs.

What a crock.

[lurker9876]

Wow!

WorldWide Impeachment

[lurker9876]

Not much of a turnout, huh?

[Other Tom]

I love the impeachment stuff. It's one fairly bright line for separating the ordinarily daffy left from the outright loons. The outright loons have never gotten over the Clinton impeachment, and they've been dreaming about revenge ever since. The ordinarily dafft left is, well, daffy, but they know it would be a dumb thing to do and would fail in any event.

[PeterUK.]

The rogues gallery of those who were FOR THE WAR BEFORE THEY WERE AGAINST IT

[Jane]

I'm watching Tenet's performance on 60 minutes. I didn't plan to believe him, but boy he really comes across as a liar to me. He's just too reactive.

[clarice]

Good thing, I swallowed my coffee before reading:
"“We’re going to have to scrap the big plan,” George Ripley, the protest’s leader, announced. He advised his allies to rearrange everyone. They would still form I-M-P-E-A-C-H-!, he insisted, only on a tad smaller scale. "
ROFL

[lurker9876]

Yeah, me too.

You have to think twice, thrice why Flopping Aces titled his President Bush Sets Benchmarks & Timetable for Congress

Good for him. Will Bush adjourn the Congress or will Congress force a government shutdown? The contractors weren't impacted during those two government contractors years ago.

[clarice]

Jane, per the NYT's review today he claimed he spoke to Richard Perle on 9.12 and quotes him saying Hussein would have to pay for this. I just hung up from a call with Richard--he was out of the country on 9/12 and was unable to return until 9/15..Tenet is clearly delusional or lying.

[lurker9876]

Incidentally, what happened to the frontpagemag site? It appears to be offline for the moment.

[Other Tom]

Here's an excerpt from an enjoyable piece on the current Powerline blog:

"The truth is that the Bush administration has been extraordinarily scandal-free. Not a single instance of corruption has been unearthed. Only one significant member of the executive branch, Scooter Libby, has been convicted of anything. Whether the jury's verdict was right or wrong, that case was an individual tragedy unrelated to any underlying wrongdoing by Libby or anyone else.

"What other 'scandals' are consuming the White House? Eight United States Attorneys, who are political appointees serving at the pleasure of the President, were replaced. So what? Was it a scandal when Bill Clinton replaced all 93? So far, not a single fact--I'm drawing here the subtle distinction between 'fact' and 'speculation' that so often escapes our liberal pundits--has emerged to render the replacement of those Justice Department employees scandalous in any respect."

As for Tenet on 60 Minutes, we're on pins and needles here on the left coast, where it's still over two hours away. I shall capture it through the miracle of Tivo, and watch it upon return from an evening of heavy eating and drinking.

[lurker9876]

Oh, sorry about your coffee, Clarice. Didn't mean to surprise ya with the "Impeachment" link.

Yanno what my prediction will be more Memorial Day of this year?

A large crowd turnout for the Gathering of Eagles!

Will the Gathering of Eagles do the same for July 4th? Need to promote and foster patriotism and freedom of our land!

Why's everyone writing articles about the decreasing number of memberships for GOP of late?

Have to read this title twice after reading Flopping Aces's President Bush Sets Benchmarks & Timetable for Congress

Will Bush adjourn the Congress? I bet.

Will Congress force a government shutdown? Probably not. It'll backfire on them and they know it. But dang it, I wish they would. Contractors were not impacted by the previous two government shutdowns.

Any predictions of what will be front page news this week?

Tenet
Defense Pork bill
Pafey / Tabois

What else?

[Maybeex]

Bush's performance last week with the Japanese Prime Minister was a disaster.

I didn't see that. I have heard, however, that Bush's speech in East Grand Rapids was really great, complete with power point presentation.

[lurker9876]

What's going on in Texas?

HB 3678 was on the House floor last week and will be taken up again on Monday, April 30.

HB 3678 would allow voluntary student-initiated expression of religious viewpoints in public schools.

[Jane]

Jane, per the NYT's review today he claimed he spoke to Richard Perle on 9.12

Did he say Perle? I thought he said someone else. But I love the instant fact checking. You go girl!

[lurker9876]

Bush's performance last week with the Japanese Prime Minister was a disaster.

I didn't see that. I have heard, however, that Bush's speech in East Grand Rapids was really great, complete with power point presentation.

Did Rove put together this PowerPoint presentation? How come Waxman hasn't gone after this PowerPoint presentation...yet????

Other Tom, I loved that Powerline post about the scandal-free Bush adm. So far, I like what Powerline has posted. There are now a few times that I did not like what Ed Morrissey and Patrick Frey posted of late.

[richard mcenroe]

Yeah, those Impeachment Stunts can be tricky...

[richard mcenroe]

Yeah, those Impeachment Stunts can be tricky...

so can links.

[clarice]

Well,Jane, Bill Kristol beat me to this "exclusive"
Tenet's imaginary conversation

[Barry]

Tenet just proves what I've known all along, he wasn't up to the task. He is nothing more than a dishonest political hack. I noticed there was no correction to the "WH outed Plame" question either.

[Jane]

Tenet just proves what I've known all along, he wasn't up to the task.

Frankly I was amazed by his performance. I wouldn't hire him as a receptionist. I wouldn't be surprised if someone said he was on drugs. And I didn't think much of the interviewer either. I tell ya, it gives me no confidence in our government.

[kate]

I read about President Bush's presentation with the PowerPoint but did not see it. I recall good comments about it. Perhaps he should try it again, this time in prime time.

I want the President to turn this around and reconnect with the American people. I'm hoping he can do it.

[Enlightened]

Ok, just a quick OT drive by - I would dearly love some Truther to explain how 6800 gals of burning fuel melted this steel and concrete structure - top to bottom - but the same thing did not happen at the WTC.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/29/BAGVOPHQU46.DTL

Happy Sunday All !

[Enlightened]

Ok, so nevermind. Malkin was all over it. Jeesh. It's the weekend fercrissakes.

[Other Tom]

That's easy, Enlightened: this was simply the first time that fire has melted steel. At least as of September 12, 2001 it had still never happened before. Who said the laws of physics can't change?

[hit and run]

Clarice:
Good thing, I swallowed my coffee before reading:
"“We’re going to have to scrap the big plan,” George Ripley, the protest’s leader, announced.

I had NOOOO idea I had gotten this big.....

But only 150 or so showed up, far fewer than the 1,000 organizers had hoped for. As their photo opportunity approached, they knew they’d be lucky to spell I-M-P.

H&RDS?

[vnjagvet]

kate -- you and me too!!!

You have put your finger on what I think is the critical failure of this President.

He is like Harry Truman in that respect.

Tony Snow may be able to help here.

That was at least one great recruiting job accomplished by GWB.