And A Sustainably Stable Morning To You As Well

Writing in the Times, Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack present an upbeat report on American prospects in Iraq:

VIEWED from Iraq, where we just spent eight days meeting with American and Iraqi military and civilian personnel, the political debate in Washington is surreal. The Bush administration has over four years lost essentially all credibility. Yet now the administration’s critics, in part as a result, seem unaware of the significant changes taking place.

Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.

After the furnace-like heat, the first thing you notice when you land in Baghdad is the morale of our troops. In previous trips to Iraq we often found American troops angry and frustrated — many sensed they had the wrong strategy, were using the wrong tactics and were risking their lives in pursuit of an approach that could not work.

Today, morale is high. The soldiers and marines told us they feel that they now have a superb commander in Gen. David Petraeus; they are confident in his strategy, they see real results, and they feel now they have the numbers needed to make a real difference.

Wow.  Combine that with the NY Times poll results and one might infer that the Dems need to pin down Bush's defeat before it slips away from them.  WILLisms has more on this.

More reax at Memeorandum including this rebuttal from Joe Klein:

I agree with many, but not all, of the conclusions Ken Pollack and Michael O'Hanlon reach in this NY Times column, but you really can't write a piece about the wae in Iraq and devote only two sentences to the political situation, which is disastrous and, as Petraeus has said, will determine the success or failure of the overall effort.

MORE BAFFLERS:  NewsBusters was stunned to hear Chris Matthews and a panel of lib newsies discuss the problems with withdrawal and the benefits of standing and fighting in Iraq.

Maybe the CW has been to declare a US defeat for so long that folks are casting about for a new CW.

STILL MORE:  In "The Seven Deadly Sins of Failure in Iraq: A Retrospective Analysis of the Reconstruction" Ken Pollack wrote in Dec 2006 that the war was winnable at the outset but mismanaged in reconstruction.

And file this under "Must Be Easy To Be A Lefty Blogger" - both Greg Sargent and Glenn Greenwald tell their trusitng readers that O'Hanlon and Pollack supported this war.  Depends on what one means by "support", I guess - Pollack famously back-pedaled during the run-up, and is not shy about saying so:

...let me start with the necessary disclaimer that while I believed a war would be necessary to depose Saddam, I opposed both the timing and manner of the actual war as the Bush administration pursued it.

That said, if he had back-pedaled by Feb 21, 2003 it is hard to see it in "A Last Chance To Stop Iraq", which appeared in the Times.

As to Mr. O'Hanlon, he seems to have supported the disarmament of Saddam but wanted more troops for post-liberation reconstruction.  One might say his judgment on what it would take to win this war was untested; his judgment to support Bush and Rumsfeld was flawed.

Comments

[Neo]

Reid is toast.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Off topic, but we're Brian Lamb fans here right? Last Night's Q&A was the most effective take down of Michael Moore I've ever seen. By a former high school friend in Michigan.

You can watch for yourself online. The film maker (really a CPA in Michigan) put $100,000 of his own money into telling the stories of people Moore deceived. Such as Rhonda the Rabbit Lady who was duped into signing a waiver of any royalties from Roger and Me (she's illiterate and couldn't read the waiver Moore produced for her to sign before he'd let her into the limo for the premiere).

See Moore lie on camera about not knowing Osama bin Laden had quoted Fahrenheit 911.

See a soldier who lost both arms in Iraq tell how he came to be in Moore's film.

[hit and run]

Klein says:
but you really can't write a piece about the wae in Iraq and devote only two sentences to the political situation, which is disastrous and, as Petraeus has said, will determine the success or failure of the overall effort.

David Igantius says:

Try to imagine what was running through the mind of Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran's ambassador to Baghdad, as he sat across the negotiating table from his American counterpart, Ryan Crocker, last week. While the U.S. diplomat delivered his stern warning against Iranian meddling in Iraq, Qomi must have wondered: Why should I listen to this guy? Congress is going to start pulling U.S. troops out soon, no matter what he says.

That's the difficulty for Crocker and Gen. David Petraeus as they try to manage a stable transition in Iraq while Congress chants ever more loudly: "Troops out! Troops out!" It's hard for anyone to take American power seriously when prominent members of Congress are declaring the war already lost.
...
A good start would be for Washington partisans to take deep breaths and lower the volume, so that the process of talking and fighting that must accompany a gradual U.S. withdrawal can work. Some members of Congress argue that pressure for an American troop withdrawal will persuade the Iraqis to put aside their sectarian agendas, but the opposite is more likely to be true.
...
Extricating the United States safely from Iraq will be difficult under the best of circumstances. But it will be impossible if the necessary bargaining takes place against a backdrop of continual congressional demands for a faster withdrawal. In that situation, the Qomis and Sadrs will take the admonitions from Crocker and Petraeus as just so much hot air -- and a bad situation will get even worse. Why should they listen to us today if we will be gone tomorrow?
...
The United States is on its way out of Iraq eventually, but it matters powerfully how we disengage -- most of all to Democrats, who at this point seem likely to inherit the responsibility for America's security 18 months from now.

[Gmax]

most of all to Democrats, who at this point seem likely to inherit the responsibility for America's security 18 months from now.

Therein lies the crux now doesn't it? Hard to have those long binges cuz sooner or later you must wake up and deal with the hangover.

[hit and run]

Gmax:
Hard to have those long binges cuz sooner or later you must wake up and deal with the hangover.

I don't appreciate you likening me to a dem that way.

Below the belt!!!

[VIMH: Ow, don't yell, it really hurts in here when you do that on a Monday]
Sorry.

[hit and run]

[VIMH: Or a Saturday or Thursday or...]
OK, OK, I get the point, you think I don't feel it too?

[VIMH: Sometimes I wonder]
You can say that again

[VIMH: Sometimes I...]
Shut up already!

[VIMH: Ow, there you go again]
::sigh::

[Jane]

Now seriously, what are the democrats, particularly Hillary and Obama going to do? Hillary can squeeze around good news more easily than Obama can, but she still risks the base. Obama seems stuck with the meme that it is too little to late - geez think about that. It's too little to late so let's abandon Iraq. Hillary will as always talk out of both sides of her mouth.

I predict Pelosi will say that it's the democrats in charge, threatening withdrawal that has made a difference, and her fans will whole-heartedly agree.

Reid will blow a gasket as always. How dare the war go well! Harrumph!

[hit and run]

Jane:
Now seriously, what are the democrats, particularly Hillary and Obama going to do?

The internal polls haven't come back yet to tell them what they need to do.

I predict Pelosi will say that it's the democrats in charge, threatening withdrawal that has made a difference, and her fans will whole-heartedly agree.

Maybe. But it is easy enough to predict that the terrorists know exactly when Petraeus will come back to the US to testify on the progress of the surge, and we will see a sharp increase in attacks to coincide. That will give enough cover for dems to say no progress has been made, with a reliable MSM to carry the narrative.

[Topsecretk9]

Democrats gamble with your safety...aka Doing what they do best...

What has gotten lost in all of this increasingly sordid game of political gotcha is the viability of a critical program in the war on terror. The TSP was brought under the FISA court's jurisdiction this January, allegedly without impairing its effectiveness. But FISA orders are not permanent. They must be periodically reissued, and FISA judges rotate. As an editorial on the facing page of the Journal first reported Friday, well-placed sources say that today's FISA-compliant TSP is only about "one-third" as effective as the 2005 version--which, in turn, was less comprehensive than the original program. This is shocking during a summer of heightened threat warnings, and should be unacceptable to Congress and the American people.

http://opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110010401

[MikeS]

Why is this man smiling?

We're gonna need some hearings!

Who mislead the Dems into thinking Iraq was un-winable?

Does all this public wrangling about the war being lost, a catastrophe, retreat, and defeat have an effect on the battle field or on diplomacy?

[MikeS]

The LA Times spotted the dark cloud. They want to know,

"So here are the real questions, Mr. President: How do we degrade Al Qaeda's ability to replace the leaders we manage to kill? How do we dry up its source of recruits? Who can convince young radicals that killing themselves and scores of innocents won't serve Islam or improve Muslim life in Iraq, the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories, New York or anywhere else? What political, social and religious progress, what kind of education, what kind of economic development will weaken the appeal of the fanatical Islamist message?"

They should consider bin Laden's "strong horse" recruitment strategy which seems to be supported the the poll mentioned here.

[Rick Ballard]

"But it is easy enough to predict that the terrorists know exactly when Petraeus will come back to the US to testify on the progress of the surge, and we will see a sharp increase in attacks to coincide."

Yep. The Dem/Splodeydope alliance is going to kill a lot of people in August in order to ensure a reversal of this journalistic feint. The Iraqi legislature's decision to take August as a vacation month makes Petraeus' report a foregone conclusion. The three major legislative components of the 18 objectives, oil revenue, de-Baathification reform and the establishment of provincial election processes are dead for the moment.

The Iraqi legislature appears to have taken the Palestinian concept of never missing a chance to miss a chance to heart. I must say that they have certainly been efficient in turning "democracy" into organized theft at a remarkably rapid pace. Maybe it's something in the water? Or something to do with their underlying moral premises?

[PaulV]

The Iraqi people, especially the Sunnis, Have wandered through the wilderness the last four years and have come to the conclusion that AQ is evil. That change in attitude ws as important as the surge itself in changing the face of the struggle (jihald to some) in Iraq. Whether the surge would have been as effective before is unknown.

[hit and run]

Novak

The morass in Iraq and deepening difficulties in Afghanistan have not deterred the Bush administration from taking on a dangerous and questionable new secret operation. High-level U.S. officials are working with their Turkish counterparts on a joint military operation to suppress Kurdish guerrillas and capture their leaders. Through covert activity, their goal is to forestall Turkey from invading Iraq.
...
What is Washington to do in the dilemma of two friends battling each other on an unwanted new front in Iraq?

The surprising answer was given in secret briefings on Capitol Hill last week by Eric S. Edelman, a former aide to Vice President Cheney who is now undersecretary of defense for policy. Edelman, a Foreign Service officer who once was U.S. ambassador to Turkey, revealed to lawmakers plans for a covert operation of U.S. Special Forces to help the Turks neutralize the PKK. They would behead the guerrilla organization by helping Turkey get rid of PKK leaders that they have targeted for years.

Edelman's listeners were stunned. Wasn't this risky? He responded that he was sure of success, adding that the U.S. role could be concealed and always would be denied. Even if all this is true, some of the briefed lawmakers left wondering whether this was a wise policy for handling the beleaguered Kurds, who had been betrayed so often by the U.S. government in years past.

Silly Edelman, thinking you could keep a lid on something when you brief congress.

I pick on Congress, since Powell and Armitage are no longer at State.

But it's still a guess. Maybe the admin wanted this operation out in the open, afterall.

[Thomas Crapper]

"Who can convince young radicals that killing themselves and scores of innocents won't serve Islam or improve Muslim life in Iraq, the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories, New York or anywhere else? What political, social and religious progress, what kind of education, what kind of economic development will weaken the appeal of the fanatical Islamist message?"

Helugu Khan,absolute wizard at it.

[PeterUK]

Mr Ballard,
"I must say that they have certainly been efficient in turning "democracy" into organized theft at a remarkably rapid pace."

Perhaps they have had a Congressional Advisory Committee.

[clarice]

Maybe they had French lessons.

[PeterUK]

Ali Bubba and the Forty Thieves wasn't just a fairy story.

[section9]

Understand that the Democrats have made their "twenty-year" bet on defeat. The O"Hanlon and Pollack piece, like the Klein piece earlier, are warnings to the Democratic political class from their outriders in the Opinion Shaping Circles that the Democrats could blow their best chance to win since 1976.

Rudy is going to win this election. Period. That's what happens when you bet on the U.S. Army to lose.

[kim]

I've been reading about Louis XIV supporting the Turks at the Gates of Vienna.
==============

[PeterUK]

Well.I don't know who,but it is obvious that someone has a slice of the action if the US withdraws from Iraq.This seems more than politics,domestic and international,it has all the smell of money,big money.

[cathyf]

I dunno, PUK. Seems to me that a major lesson from the Ames and Hanssen cases is how small a price people will take to sell out their country.

[PeterUK]

cathyf,
Admittedly so,but there are a number of players out there who buy countries and political parties,also the French betrayal vis a vie Oil for Food and at the UN was strictly business.

[Rick Ballard]

"it has all the smell of money,big money"

Lessee, the ten year projection (when all fields are brought to potential) is 8MBBL per day at, oh, let's say $70BBL. That comes to $560M per day or $204B per year for a country which has a total current annual GDP of $88B.

Yep. That's a fair pile. And given that islam is basically an ideotheological justification for a "winner takes all" spoils system, inshallah, the maneuvering of the Iraqi legislature to give the US that big ole purple finger is entirely understandable.

Interesting times.

[PeterUK]

Well we know the going rate for a British MP,whats a member of Congress run to?

[Rick Ballard]

"whats a member of Congress run to?"

Depends on what committees [s]he's on. Plus seniority and the safety of the district. Jefferson was from a Blue Barony and Blue Barons are kinda cheap - I think that $100K was overpaying. Kinda like tipping a car parker $20. Just flash.

[PeterUK]

So if some billionaire invites a pol onto his 450" yacht and says,"This unpleasantness in Iraq,it's bad for business,what was the name of that charity of yours?"

[Topsecretk9]

riffing off Hit and Run, this via the Prowler

Quietly House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is attempting to organize a series of international trips during August to undercut the Bush Administration's foreign policy, but has been trying to clear the calendar of any major legislative action, hoping that the fall session, with major moves on Iraq in play, will bring a wealth of pro-Democrat momentum.

FYI

[bio mom]

So the Iraqi government takes August off in the heart of the desert and 140 degree temps.

The U.S. Congress takes all of August past Labor Day off in a country considerably more hospitable in terms of weather, even in D.C., without accomplishing much.

The British parliament has been off since the end of June and won't return until later in October. London is not a bad place in the summer, weather wise.

The pots like to call the kettle black. And since Iraq was invaded (I am in favor, but nevertheless), the argument about the Iraqi government going on vacation while our soldiers fight there isn't that strong. Especially since the Iraqi army is not taking a holiday.

[bio mom]

So the Iraqi government takes August off in the heart of the desert and 140 degree temps.

The U.S. Congress takes all of August past Labor Day off in a country considerably more hospitable in terms of weather, even in D.C., without accomplishing much.

The British parliament has been off since the end of June and won't return until later in October. London is not a bad place in the summer, weather wise.

The pots like to call the kettle black. And since Iraq was invaded (I am in favor, but nevertheless), the argument about the Iraqi government going on vacation while our soldiers fight there isn't that strong. Especially since the Iraqi army is not taking a holiday.

[bio mom]

So the Iraqi government takes August off in the heart of the desert and 140 degree temps.

The U.S. Congress takes all of August past Labor Day off in a country considerably more hospitable in terms of weather, even in D.C., without accomplishing much.

The British parliament has been off since the end of June and won't return until later in October. London is not a bad place in the summer, weather wise.

The pots like to call the kettle black. And since Iraq was invaded (I am in favor, but nevertheless), the argument about the Iraqi government going on vacation while our soldiers fight there isn't that strong. Especially since the Iraqi army is not taking a holiday.

[bio mom]

So the Iraqi government takes August off in the heart of the desert and 140 degree temps.

The U.S. Congress takes all of August past Labor Day off in a country considerably more hospitable in terms of weather, even in D.C., without accomplishing much.

The British parliament has been off since the end of June and won't return until later in October. London is not a bad place in the summer, weather wise.

The pots like to call the kettle black. And since Iraq was invaded (I am in favor, but nevertheless), the argument about the Iraqi government going on vacation while our soldiers fight there isn't that strong. Especially since the Iraqi army is not taking a holiday.

[vnjagvet]

The lefty bloggers (Greenwald, MoveOn, Kos, FDL) are out in full force to undermine the Pollock and O'Hannlon piece by attacking them essentially as "pro war" hacks.

Althouse's liberal commenters are excoriating her and the authors as carrying BushHitler water.

This article must have hit a nerve.

Is it the end of the beginning?

[PeterUK]

!This article must have hit a nerve.

Is it the end of the beginning?"

It must be dispiriting to have been on the wrong side of history for decades.

[clarice]

God loves America!When he let the Dems win in 2006 he knew that people like Pelosi and Reid would lead them.

[Gmax]

It must be dispiriting to have been on the wrong side of history for decades.

Its the most endearing traits of a liberal to be totally oblivious to history. Doubt me? Ever listen to a liberal drone on about the great Presidency of Jimmy Carter? I rest my case.

[Gmax]

It must be dispiriting to have been on the wrong side of history for decades.

Its the most endearing traits of a liberal to be totally oblivious to history. Doubt me? Ever listen to a liberal drone on about the great Presidency of Jimmy Carter? I rest my case.

[sylvia]

That is amazing about Mathews. I watch his show fairly often and I always just want to shake him. But finally he is starting to think about this in a 3-D way, other than just 'Cheney is bad'. I wonder if this new thinking will also evolve into some understanding from him and from people globally that Bush did not go into Iraq just for the oil, but also to spread democracy. I would think that after watching all the heck Bush went through from everyone and him still persisting, it is becoming clearer.

[NancyM]

Clarice, I agree. After the initial depression of last November's loss faded a little, I came to believe exactly what you said: it was much better to lose in 2006 and give the Dems two years to show their true colors. If Republicans had still held both Congress and the White House, we wouldn't have a prayer in 2008. We do now.

[Jane]

Chief Justice Roberts has been taken to the hospital - perhaps after a fall.

[Rick Ballard]

"Is it the end of the beginning?"

Perhaps the beginning of moving the nutters off the front porch? Doesn't the current dystopian vision of the future involve a clamorous coronation of The Beast in barely more than five months - so that she can begin the lonnnng scorching of the earth that will end with her ascent?

In January/February of '03 the Deaniacs were running around in orange beanies, scaring the hell out of Iowans. The Beast isn't going to tolerate that kind of nonsense - far better for the nutters to have a bitter fall and a hopefully silent winter and spring.

[Rick Ballard]

'03 should have been '04.

[Jane]

The dems really do suck. What I can't get over is the dishonesty they get away with. Has it always been like that?

[Sue]

OMG!

I don't know if this is even true or not, but it looks like Schumer tried to kill Chief Justice Roberts. I mean, I'm just airing the possibility. It could be it was just an accident. But what are the odds that Schumer was talking trash about Roberts and now this? Hmmmm....

Source

[Jane]

I heard that too Sue!

[Sue]

Jane,

That's two people who have heard it. It is starting to look like it is true. ::wink::

[PeterUK]

"Ever listen to a liberal drone on about the great Presidency of Jimmy Carter? I rest my case."

That is most unfair, ex-President Carter is revered wherever the ruling party has more than 90% of the vote,he is the father of the Iranian Revolution and bequeathed America its internationally respected FISA courts.His name has been put foeward for the World Council of the Senile,sorry Elders,the man is up there with Kofi Annan.

[PeterUK]

Does this man look like a pusher,of judges that is?

[Rick Ballard]

"Has it always been like that?"

Nope. 1968 was (IMO) the watershed. The current list to port became truly recognizable as such with the Humphrey and then McGovern nominations. There has always been plenty of rancor and division but it's hard to find blatant weasels of as low a stature as Schumer and Reid in party leadership prior to '68.

[Topsecretk9]

Wonder how long before the nuts start the giddy Judge Roberts demise posts, because you know it's coming...