Anybody But Hillary

I have long believed that Hilary could only win if the "Anybody But Hillary" Democrats (who I suspect are a majority of her party) failed to unite around a single alternative.  However, it now appears that both Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson are asking their supporters to flock to the Obama banner as a second choice in the arcane Iowa Democratic caucusing procedure.

If that support materializes, Obama will perform above his latest polls, which are already good.

Well - whether Obama wins by a little or a lot Hilary will be the Terminator candidate.  She can't be bargained with. She can't be reasoned with. She doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And she absolutely will not stop, ever.

But that doesn't mean she can't be defeated.  It'll just take a while, thereby compounding our angst and her ultimate humiliation.

OK, let's have some Iowa predictions below.  I say Obama, Edwards, Hillary, but no screaming.  On the Rep side, Romney thumps Huckabee, McCain finishes third.

Comments

[kim]

'Anybody but Bush' was a real psychological trap for Democrats; who reset the trap with new bait?
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[maryrose]

I guess Richardson's shot at VP is history which is why he is giving his supporters to Obama.
He looked a little depressed when I saw him on Morning Joe this morning. I still say he should run for the Senate in New Mexico.

[Neo]

I predict there will be caucuses and no one will get a majority.

I really don't like any of them that much, on either side, but I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would want to relive the days of the Clintons in the White House.
Eight years ago, it was anyone who isn't Clinton and even Al "Nobel Prize" Gore really didn't want the Clintons (or any Buddhist monks) any where near his campaign. So why even attempt a repeat ?

[Rick Ballard]

Hussein, Silky Pony, Red Witch

Romney, Huckster, Thompson/McCain (photo finish for third)

I disagree with TM as to the possibility that the Red Witch may get her broom broken. I watched her ad from yesterday again and she has all her money riding on health care and overburdened mom's caring for kids plus the old folks. She's hung on '92 demographics and they just don't pertain.

I would also note that Dean, not Rolodex, is at the DNC and that Dean has elected more Dems in three years than the Clinton's have since they wriggled onto the scene. Dean still has Presidential aspirations, no matter what he says to the public, and the Clinton's are an obstacle to be overcome.

[hrtshpdbox]

Huckabee, 40
Romney, 30
McCain, 16
Thompson, 8
Paul, 4

Edwards, 35
Clinton, 30
Obama, 28

Republican analysts merely HOPE that Huckabee gets thumped, and greet each supposed Huckaflub eagerly (now he'll crumble, he misspoke on Pakistan, he shot his rifle over the press's heads, he criticized the President, he crossed a picket line). Tomorrow, after the win, it will be back to the "he's got no money, only evangelists support him, he's a lightweight who the Democrats hope to see nominated". Two weeks from now, after Michigan and SC wins, those in denial might start to see that voters of all stripes like and believe Huckabee, see him as genuine, that he's probably the GOPs best hope in the general.

[GMax]

Wow one of the Clintonistas is jumping ship this early? A cabinet member? Holy cow, doesn't he know some former cabinet members ended up dead under mysterious circumstances for less?

[Sue]

that he's probably the GOPs best hope in the general.

God help us then (no pun intended).

My picks:

Clinton
Edwards
Obama

Romney
Huckabee
McCain

[Jane]

Hussein, Silky Pony, Red Witch

Romney, Huckster, Thompson/McCain (photo finish for third)

That's my order too, except I think Thompson would have won 3rd outright if politico and then Fox hadn't floated the whole quitting thing. Actually I'll put him in 3rd all alone out of pissed-offness.

[Jane]

Oops I forgot the italics - sorry Rick.

[kim]

RB, I've thought for months that Ron Paul is an unconscious sock puppet, manipulated by Deaniacs to alienate libertarians; now there is an article(Nation?) comparing Pauliacs and Deaniacs.
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[clarice]

I'm with Jane.

[centralcal]

The only state Huckabee may win is Iowa. Then, god willing and the creek don't rise, he is the toast he deserves to be. I don't see how you can be a Christian and ethically deficient. Mr. Huckabee is significantly deficient in the ethics department, the honesty department -- and, as Rush has strongly stated today, is NOT a conservative.

That said, I predict he will win Iowa, followed by Romney and Thompson.

I couldn't care less which of the lefty liberals win. I do think if Hillarity wins that our side will have tons of fun. If Edwards wins, the baby scandal will be in the news posthaste. If Obama wins, the Clintons will have to get really creative in bringing him down.

[Rick Ballard]

I wonder if Rush's smackdown of Huckabee and McCain will have any effect?

[Jane]

I don't see how you can be a Christian and ethically deficient.

Let me count the ways...

[Other Tom]

Just got flagged for spam--what's the deal?

[clarice]

Nothing personal..Typ;epad's going crazy again, OT.

[Porchlight]

Obama, Clinton, Edwards

Romney by a hair, Huck, McCain

Would love to see Thompson show, but I don't think it's going to happen. I must say I'm surprised at McCain's holding power - I thought he was done months ago.

[clarice]

I think Fred has had a good under the radar last minute campaign on the ground and despite Politico's last minute smear, I think he will get third place.

[Latex Lord]

"When we fought the Yankees and annihilation was near,
Who was there to lead the charge that took us safe to the rear?
Why it was Hillarity R, Clinton;
Old "Toot your own horn - pone."
Hillarity R, Clinton, a girl who knew no fear!

When we almost had 'em but the issue still was in doubt,
Who suggested the retreat that turned it into a rout?
Why it was Hillarity R, Clinton;
Old "Tattered and torn - pone."
Hillarity R, Clinton, she kept us hidin' out!

With our ammunition gone and faced with utter defeat,
Who was it that burned the crops and left us nothing to eat?
Why it was Hillarity R, Clinton;
Old "September Morn - pone."
Hillarity R, Clinton the pants blown off her seat!"

[centralcal]

The web is starting to vibrate with hints of not one, but TWO humongous scandals set to break January 8th. And, among those in the know, just happens to be Huckahooey's guy Joe Carter (evangelical outpost).

Yep, just being good Christians, doncha know.

Yes, Rush has smacked Huck around pretty good today. I suspect, that if Huck keeps up the pace of his slimey politics, that Rush may have more to say before New Hampshire.

[Rick Ballard]

Kim,

It's a rolling barrage - first Paul, then the Huckster, then McCain. Next weeks menu will have many selections on how McCain is the last, best hope.

Judging by DeMSM treatment, I'd say Thompson is the most feared candidate. I'm not sure that's correct because of Romney's organizational skills but I do believe that's the way the Dems read it.

[Elliott]

My Iowa caucus predictions from another thread:

Republicans............................ Democrats
1. Mitt Romney 30%.................1. Barack Obama 33%
2. Michael D. Huckabee 24%......2. John Edwards 31%
3. Fred Thompson 17%..............3. Hillary Clinton 29%
4. John McCain 13%..................4. Who cares?
5. Ron Paul 10%

[Jane]

I agree with you Rick about Thompson.

[Patrick Tyson]

No real idea as I'm not there, I'm reading people I have no confidence in and a great deal depends on who shows up where. The late pollers seem to have decided that it's more likely the people who polled for DMR a couple of days ago know what they're doing and I see no reason at this point to not extend to them the benefit of the doubt.

Huckabee and Obama

[SunnyDay]

Judging by DeMSM treatment, I'd say Thompson is the most feared candidate.
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absolutely.

[Sara]

Okay, okay, since it is prediction time and I can't be any more wrong than anyone else, here are my predictions:

Republicans:

Romney
Huckabee
Thompson
McCain

Democrats:

Edwards
Obama
Clinton

[Elliott]

There has to be at least one surprise tonight. Would Hillary finishing third suffice?

[Sue]

If Edwards comes in 2nd, will he wonder why he is always the bridesmaid and never the bride in Iowa?

[Syl]

Obama
Edwards
Clinton

Romney
Huckabee
Thompson

Who do I *want* to win Iowa, though? Edwards and Huckabee.

Edwards because I don't want either Clinton nor Obama to come out of Iowa with an air of inevitability. Clinton for obvious reasons, but Obama because I think it's too early in his career to waste the presidency. Give him some time, experience, and seasoning, and I'd probably vote for him myself. Not now.

Huckabee because he's refreshing, sensible, funny, non-threatening to non-religious folks if they bother to LISTEN, and a win would stick it to the pundits. I'm sick and tired of conservative zero-tolerance and I'll leave it at that.

I'm with hrtshpdbox, folks.

I think the criticisms of Huck have been dishonest, arrogant, snobbish, over-the-top.

He's not perfect enough for you? Screw that.

[GMax]

Apparently Susan Estrich was quoted widely yesterday as saying that "If Huckabee is the Republican nominee, I will be dancing at the Inauguration."

Since Estrich has a big mouth, I usually dont pay attention to what she says. But like Karl Rove blurting out how Dean would be the easiest Democrat to beat, sometimes these little tidbits tell you what the other side really thinks.

Not that I think he does not fade regardless of Iowa, since he is nowhere in NH and will likely not be a factor in Super Tuesday either. Plus there is a need for cash to run a campaign, how many times can you call a press conference to try to get the press to air the ads you dont have the money to run anyway?

[Jane]

I'm not religious and I find Huckabee more threatening, and equally as dishonest as Hillary.

It makes me wonder what is in the water in Hope Arkansas.

[glasater]

I'm with Sara in that I think/hope Edwards wins in Iowa.

As far as Huckabee is concerned--he will never get the big bucks for the general election.

Romney is the one with money and at this point for the R's it is the most deciding factor.

[Sara]

Huckabee because he's refreshing, sensible, funny, non-threatening to non-religious folks if they bother to LISTEN, and a win would stick it to the pundits. I'm sick and tired of conservative zero-tolerance and I'll leave it at that.

I do not find Huckabee sensible or non-threatening to non-religious folks. I find him sadly ill informed, very much the type of Christian that gives Christians such a bad name with so many, and absolutely wacky when it comes to taxes and all those feel good pardons. I can't imagine a worse nominee than Huckabee because he is so dishonest and so bigoted.

[glasater]

I am not an Edwards supporter but he articulates best the left's philosophy.

[Sara]

Plus I don't want a Democrat as the Republican nominee and Huckabee is a liberal Democrat snake who cloaks himself in sanctimonious inanities that pass for humor but are really nothing more than backstabbing and mean-spiritedness.

[GMax]

I am not an Edwards supporter but he articulates best the left's philosophy.

Meaning he is slightly more honest about what he truly believes than the other two. Unfortunately, they all have schooled in the George McGovern school of how not to run a liberal Democrat campaign and took a refresher course from the Dukakis school of pardons and prayers. In other words, none of them will really tell you what they want to do to ya, cuz it might cause an avalanche.

[Der Hahn]

If it's close, Hillary will squeak out a win over Obama. If it's not, Hillary is a distant (more than 10 points behind Obama) third.

I'm feeling better about Huckleberry *not* winning. It won't quite be the Scream but it'll let some air out the balloon.

It's a pretty nice day (for early January) here. Moderate tempatures, no precipitation. Expect a record turnout.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

I'm really busy today: just take everything Jane says and add a +1 for me.

[glasater]

Very true GMax.
In my heart I tend to agree with RichatUF that the 2008 election will make 2000 look like a cakewalk.

[Syl]

how many times can you call a press conference to try to get the press to air the ads you dont have the money to run anyway?

An example of what I was complaining about. It's this type of cynical trash talk I'm against.

I'm not advocating that Huck should win the nomination or that if he did (impossible, ISTM) he wouldn't be clobbered by the Dems AND the Rep pundits and wannabe pundits. I'm just sick and tired of the knee-jerk reaction against him. To me it says more about you than about him.

I'm not religious yet I'm not ashamed to say I heart Huck.

And I want a brand new set of pundits. The old ones have become too stuffy and sure of themselves.

[clarice]

AWK

[Sara]

There is a truism that every red-blooded Republican, whether moderate, conservative or libertarian should follow -- if the MSM is backing someone and drooling over a Republican candidate, then run as fast as you can in the opposite direction.

[Porchlight]

I don't find Huckabee the person to be so awful. I just think he's a terrible candidate, and would get thoroughly and deservedly pummeled in a general election, while in the process giving liberals unlimited material to lambaste conservative Southern evangelicals. (Not that Huckabee is truly conservative, but the idiots won't ever figure that out.)

Can't you just see the master MSM narrative? "You thought Bush was bad, look at this moron!"

[Sue]

I'm just sick and tired of the knee-jerk reaction against him. To me it says more about you than about him.

Knee jerk? I'm southern and raised Baptist. I won't be voting for Huckabee.

[maryrose]

My predictions:
Obama Romney
Huck
Thompson/McCain-photo-
Edwards finish.
Clinton

[maryrose]

Awk! That came out bad... McCain /Thompson -photo-finish

[Syl]

if the MSM is backing someone and drooling over a Republican candidate, then run as fast as you can in the opposite direction.

There's a grain of truth here, but it isn't everything. Shuster has been knocking on Huck as hard as you guys have.

But don't forget the corollary: if the MSM constantly puts down, or worse, ignores, a Republican candidate then you can be pretty sure he's the one they're terrified of...

and that would be..Fred.

[Other Tom]

I deeply loathe Huckabee. I believe he is both dishonest and dishonorable. I also believe that his chance of being the nominee is zero, but if in fact he were nominated he would lose 45 states or more.

I'd love to see it be Obama, Edwards and Clinton. I can just picture a purple-faced Bubba, veins bulging in his neck, screaming at Mark Penn and the other sycophants. And I'd like to see her lose in N.H. next week. The worldwide front-page news would be the wheels coming off the Clinton juggernaut. And I would be dancing the Eagle Rock.

[Cecil Turner]

He's not perfect enough for you? Screw that.

He's not very conservative, and not, in my opinion, well-qualified to be president. So in the hunt for a conservative presidential candidate . . .

Other than that, I really have no problem with Huckabee (unless that "floating cross" thing was an intentional attempt at subliminal advertising, in which case I think he's got serious judgment issues . . . but I'm willing to allow that isn't the case). But I won't be voting for him under any foreseeable circumstances.

and that would be..Fred.

That's the way I see that one, too. He's also the best qualified and most conservative of the fairly-disappointing GOP field. (Which manages to look good by comparison only because of the terribly disappointing Dem field.)

[Coyote99]

I've listened to Huckabee, and I've done some research on his tenure in Arkansas, and I don't like what I've seen. His positions on illegal immigration are ridiculous. He thinks that illegal immigration is some sort of payback for slavery. How does that make sense? Illegal immigrants were never slaves, and current U.S. citizens -- those who are paying the costs for the millions of unskilled, undereducated illegals flooding across our southern border -- were never slave owners. Huckabee also says that it is unfair to "penalize" illegal alien students for the sins of their parents by denying the illegal alien students U.S. taxpayer-funded college scholarships. Since when is the denial of a benefit to which a person is not legally entitled in the first place construed as a "penalty"? Huckabee called a law requiring voters to show state-issued picture I.D. before voting "un-American and un-Christian." What is un-Christian or un-American about trying to make sure that the person casting a vote in a U.S. election is legally entitled to do so? There are an estimated 12-20 million foreigners living illegally in the U.S. Document fraud is rampant in the illegal alien community. Phony voter registration cards can be purchased for a few dollars on the streets of L.A., Phoenix, and most other major cities. But we shouldn't ask people to show their driver's licenses at the voting booth, because that might deter illegal aliens for voting for some tool like Huckabee!