Can't Trust College Girls

Mark Blumenthal takes a first stab at where the Obama-up polls went awry:

On the other hand, the discrepancy between the last UNH poll and the result seems concentrated in a few key subgroups. I will post the exact numbers tomorrow once the we get a final exit poll tabulations, but virtually all of the difference seems to come from women and college educated voters. For the moment, when comparing the UNH poll to the exit poll, I see a net 17 point gain for Clinton among women compared to a 5 point gain among men, and a 13 point net gain among college educated voters compared to a one point net loss among those with no college degree.

My new colleague* Ron Brownstein has chronicled the critical importance of college educated women as swing voters in the Democratic nomination race. More than any other group, they moved to Clinton in the fall after her strong performances in early debates. Yes she appeared to be doing far less well among these voters in Iowa. If the polls missed a last minute shift to Clinton in New Hampshire, considering the heavily gender focused coverage of the last 48 hours of the campaign, the most logical place to look is among college educated women.

Combine that with the exit poll results showing 37% of the Democrats "finally deciding" for whom they would vote in the last three days of the campaign, and we have a pretty good first clue of what happened with the polls in New Hampshire this week.

Flighty, fickle, indecisive (but educated!) Democratic chicks pick Hill.  And this makes the case for a woman President?

Oh, I'm kidding.  Kind of.  The vote for Obama was a vote for history...

PICS:  Matt Yglesias gets graphic, but not with college girls.

Comments

[Jor]

Just going through some comments, there appears to be a divide between older and younger women. Older women really seem to think this is a once-in-a-lifetime kinda chance for a women to become president. While younger people don't think this is the last shot a women has. I wish the exit poll results on cnn had a gender & age simultaneous divide.
I'd guess older women broke, much more heavily towards Clinton, than their younger counterparts.

[Jor]

Actually wasting more time on CNN exit polls, it really seems like Hillary voters are gigantically mis-informed

These numbers are Clinton / Obama

Family's Financial Situation: "Falling Behind"
43% / 33%
Income < 50K, 47% / 32%

Who in there right mind thinks Clinton is the populist candidate, or the candidate of the poor? For gods sake, why are these people voting for Clinton. For edwards I could understand, but for clinton.

Then on Iraq

Withdraw Troops from Iraq Immeadiately
44% to 35%

Who the hell thinks Clinton would be better at this than Obama? CLINTON are you joking.

unrelated but amusing,
Who is running an unfair campaign?
By 2:1 people think its Hillary (22%) running a dirty campaign over Obama (11%)

[Jor]

Yglesias graph is contradicted by the exit polls

Mathew, the exit polls contradict your hypothesis

When did you decide your vote? / Clinton / Obama
Today 39% / 36%
last 3 days 34% / 37%
last week 28 / 43
last month 34 / 44
before that 48 / 31

[Porchlight]

Actually wasting more time on CNN exit polls, it really seems like Hillary voters are gigantically mis-informed

Of course they are, they're Democrats.

[Porchlight]

Sorry, that was unkind, but I couldn't resist. I do agree that the results are a bit odd. But exit polls are often like that.

[kim]

Not only not unkind, but true. Insofar as MSM is biased, and insofar as that bias favors Democrats, by so much are they misinformed. Witness: Iraq.

I know there is a yardstick lying around here somewhere.
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[Matthew]

The contradiction between the Entrance Polls, the Exit Polls, and the actual Primary Results can only mean one thing: A vast right-wing conspiracy spear-headed by Rovian agents and Diebold! This all a plot to have the Democrats once again select an unelectable candidate.

[GMax]

If the difference is really concentrated in women, young or old, and the playing off Hill crying was pervasive in the NH market, I guess one could theorize that women reacted to Hillary emotionally and flocked back to her when she was hurting.

Not a great metric for Hill, unless she can turn on and off the water spigot like the great charlatan Bill.

Being hopelessly male, I will chalk this up to one more thing I do understand about women. Would you really vote for President for someone you felt sorry for?

[Sue]

Would you really vote for President for someone you felt sorry for?

Uh, no. But I'm not a liberal so who the hell knows?

[JM Hanes]

GMax:

" I guess one could theorize that women reacted to Hillary emotionally and flocked back to her when she was hurting."

There's also the possibility that they thought it was stupid or unfair to make such a big deal over it as the media did. Call it a papparazzi moment and a So What vote. I saw the clip and thought the whole thing was pathetically overblown. McCain routinely looks & sounds more like he's on the verge of tears than Clinton did.

One of my sisters had an awkward two weeks when she first got contact lenses, back before soft lenses made the transition so easy. She commented that being a woman in a seriously male dominated business was not always a disadvantage, but she couldn't afford to look teary eyed for an instant -- regardless of why.

I think men make a lot more assumptions about what it means if a woman tears up than women do, and it doesn't necessarily evoke sympathy in other women.

[JM Hanes]

This item by Katha Pollitt over at The Nation (brought to you by the Hot Air ticker) is worth checking out if one is contemplating the potential range of women's reactions to the crying game.

[sophy]

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