I Have Seen The Future

The NY Times Caucus blog really did have outstanding coverage tonight.  I note that as an adjunct to my gloom-induced notion that the era of the amateur blogger is winding down.

I HAVE ALSO SEEN THE PAST:  This is from two months ago:

After The Fall

The latest Hillarity about planted questions has me wondering what will happen to Hillary after she manages to lose the aura of inevitability.  Can either Barack Hussein Il Jong Obama or the Breck Girl win the hearts and minds of a Dem majority and seize the nomination?

Not to be a Gloomy Guss but here is my gloomy guess - in a brawling street fight Hillary will easily re-emerge as the toughest Dem out there and the press will be thrilled to unveil a whole new narrative about the Comeback Queen whose true depths of character and resolve have finally been revealed by the grueling primary process blah, blah, kill me now, and quickly.

Now, I have not fully given in to despair - the press would also be thrilled to tell us how Obama took the high road to victory, thereby teaching us Great Things about the wisdom of the American people and the press that guides them.  Edwards backers, however, feel free to despair - no one wants to hear a story about a triumphant middle-aged white opportunist.

Looks like the "Barack on the high road with Abraham, Martin, and John" era lasted almost a week.  Well, it was a good week!  Can anyone promise me that stories about the gritty, resolute, yet newly humanized Hillary will pass as quickly?

I was afraid not.

And looking even further back, we find evidence that it is a waste of time to update one's first impressions.  I was at the Republican debate in New Hampshire last September; some selective excerpts:

McCain is going to live free or die hard in New Hampshire. As both Giuliani and Huckabee noted, he is a great American, and New Hampshire has been a good state for him in the past.  Also helping him - the media would L-U-V to write the "John McCain, Comeback Kid" story.  I attended a packed McCain event before the debate, and he aired his new bio which emphasizes his Vietnam experience.  Hmm - that sorta worked for Kerry, and sorta not, but on the other hand, McCain is a genuine hero.

Mike Huckabee came across (again) as friendly, funny, and energetic - he would be a landslide winner if we were voting for Next Door Neighbor, but most of us aren't (I won't predict the behavior of  Iowa voters).

Mitt Romney would be totally the guy I would want if ever I have a pile of ice chips I need to sell to an Eskimo.  Until then, geez - I know he is smart and successful, but all I see is an annoying phony.

Four months later I can stand by that.  Of course, there was also this about Rudy:

I thought Giuliani was the winner, but my goodness - as a tribute to Christopher Hitchens' Clinton bio, "No One Left To Lie To", maybe someone could produce a Rudy bio titled "No One Left To Beat On".  Let's just say that Rudy's toughness comes through.

Toughness is not yet translating into votes.

 

 

Comments

[kim]

Hire him to put petroleum money to productive use, civilize the erstwhile communist powers, and bring the Olympics to Africa.

Now with the Gore effect he could stage the Winter ones at Kilimanjaro.
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[kim]

In two articles in the WSJ, Ajami and Stephens deride Democrats and pump up Bush in foreign policy.
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[syn]

Rudy's problem is that the majority of Americans have either forgotten 9/11/2001 or never cared about 9/11/2001 to begin with.

[JM Hanes]

Giuliani needs to lay off the direct references to 9/11 (and to handing back the Saudi $$!). It's the one thing he doesn't have to mention, because it's the one thing everybody already knows about him. It could end up being all they ever know about him too, if he doesn't start emphasizing other skills.

Giuliani's multi-state strategy makes theoretical sense -- if there's enough time for the McCain/Huckabee bouncing to settle out before Florida and super Tuesday. TM's prescience above represents something of a paradox when the most significant stat to come out of NH, IMO, is the rather astonishing number of primary voters who make up their minds on the day they vote. That's a lot of wild cards.

[Elliott]

O'Reilly wrapping up. Republican debate in South Carolina imminent.

[Jane]

Hey Elliott, your snark machine is here! My fellow snarkers will follow.

[Elliott]

Brit Hume leads things off from the convention center in Myrtle Beach. Introduces Wendell Goler, Chris Wallace, and Carl Cameron.

SC GOP Chair has the standard message of welcome.

Oh, we have the national anthem. I doubt we will have an Obama moment. It looks separately recorded anyway.

[JM Hanes]

Ron Paul: Sacrificial lamb of the evening, assuming all goes well.

[Ann]

Fellow Snarker Here! Hi Everyone.

[Ann]

Why is Ron Paul on the stage? It's only an hour debate. Good God he is a nut.

[centralcal]

Will anyone question Paul about his newsletters? Will anyone question Huckabee about what he did to the Republican party in Arkansas?

[Ann]

Fred's looking handsome tonight.

[Elliott]

Candidate introduction. Brit goes over the groundrules. Throws to Chris Wallace.

Wallace: Will there be a recession? No new jobs in Mass Mitt?

Romney: Could be headed for recession, don't have to be. Growth, job slowdowns affect people. In Massachusetts, I turned around the job numbers. Big employers coming into state. At federal level, (something), reduce taxes, gas prices, energy independence. Research and development. Don't just talk about improving economy, rebuild it. I disagree with John McCain that jobs have left Michigan never to return. I'll fight for them.

McCain: I won in NH by telling truth. There are some jobs that won't come back to SC, Mich. We'll take care of people though. Training programs to help people. Not headed into recession. Fundamentals strong. Will remain so.

Wallace: What short term policies to diminish or reverse slowdown? Would you increase deficit?

McCain: Stop out of control spending, which raises interest rates so have strong fiscal underpining. $400 billion to oil producing countries. Better fuel efficiency to reduce dependence on foreign oil. Education, training. I'll veto earmarks, excessive spending. I'm called the sheriff, saved taxpayers six billion. I'm not trying to be Miss Congeniality.

Huckabee: Hope not headed for recession. Four factors if we do end up in one: oil prices (hurts those lower on income scale--need energy independence), subprime mortgages, health care costs, education costs. People working hard, not getting ahead. Don't raise taxes. Go to fair tax.

Wallace: CBO disagrees with your revenue estimates, Rudy.

Giuliani: Some tax cuts add to revenues, others don't. Kennedy, Reagan cuts led to increase in economic activity. Club for Growth said my plan would be good. Cutting corporate tax will bring in more revenue. Should cut anti-competitive taxes. Cut spending when recessions looming. Cut back on spending at federal agencies. Regulatory reform. Overtaxing, overregulating, overspending big problems.

Wallace; Tax cuts raise revenue?

McCain: Tax cuts stimulate economy. Make tax cuts permanent. Must cut spending. Foot soldier in Reagan revolution. We wanted to cut spending but we failed. Should have passed my tax cuts.

Wallace: Government program to stimulate economy?

Paul: Shouldn't just spend more money. Reduced tax burden would be good. Probably in recession because of the things we've been doing. Mistakes at federal reserve. Easy credit teaches people to do wrong things. Delayed recession, housing market terrible. Lower interest rates are the problem, cause bubble. Change monetary policy.

Thompson: I need to defend Rudy on his tax plan, because it looks like mine. Government never loses as much in tax cuts as experts predicts. Unemployment up to what used to be considered full employment. Credit scarce, money tighter and tighter. Fed needs to proceed aright. Maybe speed up depreciation schedules. 2001 stimulus package. Might do something like that further down road. Would be better off if people knew tax cuts wouldn't expire.

[JM Hanes]

Huckabee: the anti-Reagan. I like it!

[centralcal]

Me too, JMH! I agree, Thompson looks great!

[Ann]

Centraical,

Will anyone ask Huckster about his "Shi'ite Republicans" remark?
Good to see ya, bye the way.

[JM Hanes]

Somebody told McCain to make sure he mentioned global warming -- for the children.

[Jane]

Gawd if you think Romney lost jobs you should see what Deval Patrick is doing, as we speak.

McCain looks snarky. And sounds depressing. And he sounds like he's a welfare king. My gawd the last 3 debates have soured me on McCain. I'm with him on the spending tho. And I'm really with him on earmarks. But gawd the same old lines. Sheesh.

Yukky huk "hopes" we aren't headed for a recession. Yeah that will get us far. I hope to win the lottery. This is a man completely devoid of any solutions at all. He's a bloody democrat. So the fair tax will stop recession. huh?

Rudy parses tax cuts. Rudy keeps losing me.I don't know why.

McCain now wants to make the tax cuts he voted against to be permanent.

Ron Paul: blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. "Austrian theory". Gee let's see if he wins tonite's debate after yesterday's revelations.

Fred: He's the only guy with specifics. I still love him.

Yukky Huk: Backtracks - i don't believe him. He panders and says absolutely nothing. Tonite is all about God, and he has no idea what he is talking about. Back to being a democrat. Gawd he is unimpressive.

McCain: Panders to the environmentalists and mirror huckabee. Gawd all I can imagine is a Hillary - Huckabee race. I'm feeling ill.

[JM Hanes]

Knowing how America works is more important than knowing how Washington works, you go Mitt!

You really go, Fred!

[MayBee]

They need to eschew the term "extend the Bush tax cuts". They need to start saying what it will really happen: raise the tax rates.
What kind of a podunk government makes it so impossible for the average family to do any kind of budgeting because the government keeps changing the tax rate.?

[Jane]

Go Fred!!!!

This is a battle for the heart and soul of the republican party. (I haven't been one for all that long, but sheesh i'm totally behind you.)

Go Fred! Go Fred! Go Fred ! YEAHHHHH!!!!

[Rick Ballard]

Thompson on the attack. Three rounds brisk right at Huckabee's waterline.

[centralcal]

YES FRED!!!!!

[MayBee]

What did Fred just say that got that huge cheer from the audience?

[Jane]

Yukky Huck - you are a joke. And he lies and lies and lies as much as Hillary.

[Ann]

Go, Go, Go Fred!!!! Where is Clarice? He is fantastic tonight.

[JM Hanes]

Giuliani: 50 state strategy, as a principle not just a strategy, yes.

[Elliott]

Carl Cameron: What part of Reagan coalition gone?

Huckabee: Reagan coalition had middle, lower income voters. Those voters don't feel part of the party as much. Strong national defense, sanctity of life, second amendment. I was part of Reagan coalition. All parts of coalition important. Our party wants to help single moms not just CEOs.

McCain: Departed from Reagan principles in some respects. Government changed us. Bridge to nowhere. Spending out of control, abandonment of environmental principles. Climate change must be dealt with. Less government, lower taxes, family values, strong national defense.

Cameron: Would nationwide Romneycare have abortion services?

Romney: Abortion services in Mass court imposed. I was pro-life in every decision I made as governor. Need to appeal to Reagan coalition to win White House with Reagan principles. Optimism, confidence. Strong military, strong families. Shining city, hill. Powerful economy. Knowing how America works more important than knowing how Washington works. I've gained that knowledge over 30 years. I'll bring jobs.

Thompson: Huckabee believes Reagan coalition is gone. Battle for soul of Republican party. Reagan coalition or Christian leader. Arrogant foreign policy, closing Gitmo, taxpayer funded scholarships for illegals, NEA endorsed, smoking banned. Not the model of the Reagan coalition, model of Democratic party.

Huckabee: I cut taxes, first time in Arkansas. Cutting spending. I did this even though there was a lot of opposition. I governed. People of my state thought I did good job and reelected me.

Cameron: (Missed it)

Giuliani: (Missed some) Reagan advocated peace through strength, tax cuts. I worked for Reagan. We can apply his principles to current issues. Peace through strength applicable to the war on terror. We can be 50 state party with Reagan principles. Be inclusive party.

Cameron: Truthers support you.

Paul: I've abandoned those viewpoints. Coalition gone. Not fiscal conservatives anymore. Entitlement spending. Undermined 4th amendment. We're into nation building and other terrible things we didn't support in 2000. Borrowing from Chinese.

[Jane]

Here we go - the 911 truthers - Paul is as old as McCain. He doesn't believe in the 911 Truthers. That's a relief - not.

[centralcal]

Break - I am praying hard that Fred just keeps finding his voice tonight!

[clarice]

I am watching it amd Fred does look and sound great.

[JM Hanes]

This is not going to be a very snarkable night, is it. Glad to hear somebody finally call Huckabee a Democrat. Don't think the audience probably knew what the Ron Paul moment was all about.

[Ann]

If anyone missed the HotAir Huckster post:

Huckster

[JM Hanes]

Fred does sound great to us, but I think we're the choir.

[Ann]

I don't know, JM Hanes, the audience seems to like him, too.

[JM Hanes]

Yeah, but the audience likes Huckabee too.

[Ann]

JMH, yeah there is that :(

[clarice]

Romn Paul was nicely toredoed by Brit.

[RichatUF]

Brit Hume just slapped Ron Paul...disappointing that McCain just didn't walk over and punch him in the mouth.

[Elliott]

Brit: Navy respond correctly in the Gulf?

Huckabee: If engage US military be prepared to get smoked.

Brit: Warships thought provocative and received warning. Still right call?

Huckabee: Decisions in hand of commanders and supports that. Important to make clear we'll have best, strongest military no one wants to engage.

Thompson: Right call, I think I agree with governor on that. On more step and I think they would have been introduced to those virgins they're looking forward to seeing. Iran testing our resolve (British hostages). Revolutionary guard has taken over. If they cross the line, we'll respond.

Giuliani: Mentions NIE. Incident shows us we shouldn't be lulled into false sense of security about Iran. Try to get more sanctions. Economic problems in Iran. Iran is not benign, the way some suggested when NIE came out.

McCain: Shouldn't second guess commanders. Freedom of the seas ongoing issues. President made right statement recently, commanders made right decision. Serious situation, in one of the major waterways.

Paul: I would urge more caution than I'm hearing. Gulf of Tonkin. Small boats and naval destroyers. Why are we talking about starting WWIII. Rush to judgment on this? People in administration want the chance, were disappointed by NIE?

Brit: Every candidate supported commander.

Paul: People are looking for excuse to bomb Iran. Don't need another war.

Romney: I think Paul should not be reading as many of Ahmadinejad's press releases. Don't believe incident was carried out by rogue elements. Iran very troubled nation. Need to put lots of pressure on Iran, which I've been talking about since January. Commanders acted appropriately. Need comprehensive strategy on Iran.

[Jane]

Iran: Yukky Huk talks out of both sides of his mouth.

Fred brings down the house with the "virgin" remark.

Rudy brings up the NIE. Good.

McCain: Praises Bush. Good. Praises the commanders. Good.

Ron Paul: "Caution". He has adopted Iranian spin. Britt: What are you responding to? "I can't hear you". Gawd help us. The audience laughs.

Romney: Congressman Paul should not be reading Ahmadinejad's press releases.

[clarice]

Ron Paul was nicely torPedoed by Brit.

[Ann]

Quit. Asking. Ron Paul. Questions. !!!!

[Ann]

I love McCain's patriotism, hate when he dishes Rumsfield. And well, you know what I think of "My Friends" (drink :))

[centralcal]

Ann, tonite I am drinking to "my friend" and to "straight talk."

[JM Hanes]

We're giving weapons to the Sunnis -- in Baghdad? Good grief. Does the audience even know how stupid that is?

[RichatUF]

I knew it, McCain just pushed the Paulbots button...we "supported Hussein and OBL"...I'm surprised someone else didn't clobber him for that one

[Jane]

McCain praises Petraeus. Good, there can never be enough of that.

Rudy also supported the surge.

Ron Paul: blah blah blah blah blah "We are out of money"

[Jane]

We're giving weapons to the Sunnis -- in Baghdad? Good grief. Does the audience even know how stupid that is?

I seriously doubt it.

[Topsecretk9]

I haven't tuned it in, but eghads!...the Corners says it's Freds night!

I hope they don't jinx him. They loved McCain's speech in NH...the one where his eyes were closed because he was reading, along with the rest of the nations.