Chop The Body And The Head Will Fall

John Lewis and other black leaders are re-thinking their early support of Hillary, which will certainly upset the superdelegate math at the Dem convention.  This is obviously bad for Hilary, but is it unexpected?  Let's have some calm perspective from Andrew Sullivan:

If Lewis's original endorsement of the Clintons was a huge blow to Obama, then his reversal is an even bigger blow to the Clintons. The Obama campaign has now not only built a rival machine to the Clintons', it is poaching loyalists. A figure like Lewis also brings, for good reason, a vast moral credibility with him. He gives permission - even encouragement - for other Clinton super-delegates to move to prevent a bruising and bitter fight through the spring. It's a tipping point.

Michael Crowley of TNR thinks it is bad for Hillary, but maybe not so bad as Halperin thinks:

Obviously this is a nasty development for Hillary. Among other things, it's one more reminder of Bill's reduced stature with his former African-American allies. It hurts. But an event that cuts her odds in half? That's how I would describe a big loss in Wisconsin. Not this.

Well.  First of all, in terms of perception, these switches further promote the notion that the SS Hillary is going down and it is time for sensible folks to gather their belongings and disembark.  Such a perception also makes it less likely that John Edwards, for example, would endorse Hillary - how often do people talk about rats boarding a sinking ship?  Sometimes momentum is the perception of momentum.

However, are these switches by black leaders any kind of a surprise?  In the glorious history of the US Congress, how often has a representative backed a notion that (a) looks like a loser, and (b) is overwhelmingly opposed by his constituents?  With 80-90% of black voters backing Barack, who really thought that these black superdelegates would try to hold the line for Billary if Barack looked like a possible winner?

Thirdly, Barack grew up as a community organizer, which means he grew up with a belief in the power of bottom-up pressure.  I am not privy to his campaign strategy but I doubt he lost sleep wondering whether these black leaders would come around once he won over their neighborhoods and demonstrated his viability.

Finally, I very much wonder whether a John Lewis endorsement of Barack would have been valuable to Obama last fall.  Remember, Barack has been intent as presenting himself as something other than merely a black candidate (see the "Keep Hillary Alive" spin here); a string of early endorsements from prominent civil rights legends would have been counter-productive (although Oprah's cross-over appeal was welcomed).

Now I suspect that Obama's advisers would have been happy if John Lewis had stayed neutral earlier in the race.  However, the way John Lewis' position has evolved really has broken perfectly for Barack: early on, Barack avoided the label of "the black candidate", since Lewis and other prominent blacks were backing Hillary; late in the game, the Lewis shift can be presented by the Obama camp as the latest sign that Hillary's apocalypse is upon us.

I don't for a moment suggest that Lewis' behavior was scripted in advance, but if I were an Obama strategist, this is pretty much how I would have scripted it.

Comments

[clarice]

Yes to all that..esp liked "Sometimes momentum is the perception of momentum"
Still Julian Bond and Sheila Jackson Lee have not abandoned Hill in her time of need,

[Sue]

The Rasmussen poll is in.

Clinton 54%
Obama 38%

I can't link to Rasmussen. Typepad won't let me.

[Sue]

Sorry. Typepad caused me to screw up. It. Was. Not. My. Fault.

The poll is from Texas.

[Porchlight]

Thanks, Sue! Been waiting for a Texas poll.

[Sue]

Porch,

You're welcome. If the Hispanics don't abandon her, I think she will win Texas.

[Sue]

Putin

The former KGB lieutenant colonel appeared to lash out at U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton — a leading Democratic candidate for president — when one reporter quoted her as saying that former KGB officers have no soul: "At a minimum, a head of state should have a head," Putin said.

[GMax]

Did you see my link from Newsweek yesterday on the Obama rally with virtually no Hispanic support? He wont get much, and Charlie Gonzalez is not his Dad, Henry Gonzalez. If someone starts telling you Charlie Gonzalez has endorsed Obama, remind him that San Antonio where Charlie hangs out has a Hispanic Republican in Congress. Hispanics do not vote like blacks, and more and more they are streaming to the Republicans. Hill will get the Democrat ones, and McCain will get as high a % as Bush did, maybe even higher.

[Sue]

Did you see my link from Newsweek yesterday on the Obama rally with virtually no Hispanic support?

In Dallas?

[hit and run]

Geraghty links to a Texas Credit Union League poll showing Hillary leading 49 to 41...

[kim]

Red Witch or Black Knight?
================

[TexasToast]

Sue
HRC may win the popular vote in Texas – but lose ground in the delegate race. Unfortunately for HRC, Texas is a mixed caucus/primary state – allocating delegates as follows:
· 126 "primary-chosen" delegates, allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4.
· 42 at-large, "caucus-chosen" delegates that come up through the primary and county convention.
· 25 pledged "party delegates" allocated by the presidential preference of delegates attending the State convention.
· 35 unpledged "super delegates"

HRC is at a disadvantage in the first group because the allocation is among 31 state senatorial districts and is made based upon turnout in the last two elections. In brief, the blacks turned out the last two elections and the latinos did not. Thus, the four most heavily black/youth districts have the largest number of delegates (Austin, South Dallas. Houston) – the latino districts? - not so much.

HRC is at a disadvantage in the second and third groups because of the caucus format – Obama has almost swept the prior caucus states, and unless HRC gets her folks to come back in the evening (as Obama has been able to do), it doesn’t look good for her.

Finally, the “super delegates? I have a feeling many will attempt to get to the front of the winning parade – so to speak.

In short, Texas isn’t much of a firewall for HRC – even I she does get the most votes.

[maryrose]

As in Ohio many of former polls were before the blow-out in D.C. Maryland, and Virginia. I believe it is much closer. I got a robo-call for a rally in Lyndhurst today for Hil. Yesterday she was at OSU but The Cleveland Plain Dealer has endorsed Obama.

[GMax]

I think I am going to gag if I have to endure Hill on the tube everyday till Martch 4th. She has an ad up where she tells us that everyday she tries to help someone. It all but brings a tear.

[kim]

That someone being herself. What a Girl Scout!
===================

[Rick Ballard]

To follow on to TT's very accurate comments:

Texas delegates are apportioned by State Senate districts. There are 31 districts, 20 of which are held by Republicans. A brief analysis of those districts based upon ethnic composition and income yields these results:

BHO will take SSD (State Senate District) 1,2,3,4,5,10,13,15,17,22,23,24 - twelve in total.

RW will take SSD 6,19,20,21,25,26,27,28,29,31 - ten total

Contested SSD - 7,8,9,11,12,14,16,18,30 are in contention, all leaning RW based upon the preponderance of Hispanics but subject to crossover influence, especially 9,11,16 and 30.

I've never seen a race so susceptible to crossover. That BHO fella sure is exciting, isn't he?

[Larry]

"...calm perspective from Andrew Sullivan:" That, sir, is certainly the oxymaroon of the month and year, probably the oxymaroon of the '00's, and, long after we are all gone, a favored contender for oxymaroon of the 21st century.

I bet some of you are having the same hard time I am figuring whether the horrible harridan losing the nomination or the election would be the greater pleasure.

[GMax]

Another long time Democrat activist speaks. The article says he is unaffiliated with either candidate. But listen to the words and hum with the music.

"Are Democrats coming surprisingly close to nominating a phenomena rather than a fully vetted candidate?" asked Steve Jarding, a long-time Democratic activist. "The answer to that appears to be a frightening, 'Yes.'

"Once again, we seem to be falling in love in February only to be headed to a bitter breakup in November when our true love turns out to be much less than expected."

Jarding, who said he considers Obama "unique and gifted," has mostly stayed out of presidential politics since a brief dalliance with John Edwards in 2004. But the co-author of Foxes in the Henhouse: How the Republicans Stole the South and the Heartland and What the Democrats Must do To Run 'em Out, has long warned that Democrats should avoid the mistakes of past elections.

"Historically, while hope may well sell in the spring, it wears thin by fall when it is trumped by issues of security and experience," Jarding said.

One of his biggest complaints is over the "gushing of the media" toward Obama.

"In my 30 years of doing this," Jarding said, "I have never seen anything like the swooning the ... primarily television media has done over Obama."

Eventually, that will change. Jarding hopes it happens in time for Democrats to know everything they need to about the man who aspires to be their great hope in 2008.

[hit and run]

Real clear politics has an Insider Advantage poll showing 5illset up 48 to 41 in Texas.

[GMax]

Rick

I have done no detailed analysis as you have. I will say that I live in and around the districts of Nelson and Harris and Carona and am very familiar with the area in district 30 Wichita falls to Sherman.

I dont see Obama winning any of those Republican districts. The Democrats in those districts are neither heavily black nor limosine ridin latte sippers. No large university presence either.

I do think the rules as written do not favor a massive delegate collection for her, but she will win more delegates and may well get every bit as disparate an outcome as Obamania did on the Potomac.

[hit and run]

5illset = Hillary of course.

Yes it's a BlackBerry day, why do you ask?

[Sue]

There is always the exception to the rule, but for the most part, democrats in Texas are like republicans in the northeast. They will be less likely to vote for Obama because he is left of Hillary. And they still love Bill here, it would seem.

[Porchlight]

My part of Austin is Obamaland (white, university, musician, slacker). But I think that's the exception - Hillary has the overall advantage.

Bill made an appearance here a couple of years ago - signing books or something, I can't remember - and at least four of my co-workers skipped work to go stand in line. All women with big crushes on Bubba.

However, it will be interesting to follow Rick's calculations and see how the delegates shake out.

[GMax]

democrats in Texas are like republicans in the northeast

scarce and hard to find? LOL

Actually when I first came to Texas, many moons ago I went to a fiesta in San Antonio that has a great many elected officials there working the crowd.

Young, a bit frightened and little naive I asked an older colleague how I could tell which party any given office holder belonged to. His reply, "Thats easy, the more conservative ones are all Democrats."

Things have changed some, as back then all statewide offices were held by Democrats. But outside of Austin and a few of the Black Caucus, there are not too many Democrats here who are proud to call themselves Liberal out in public.

[Neo]

Sometimes momentum is the perception of momentum.

In politics, there is no reality, only perception.

[GMax]

Rick

The more I look superficially the less I see how you came to the conclusion you did. For example, districts 1 and 3 and East Texas. Democrats there tend to be older liftime Dems, and those are Hill's bread and butter. District 3 is Mesquite to Greenville. Middle class whites in Greenville and small town. Mesquite is blue collar white and Hispanic mix. Not a large black population that I can think of either.

Anyway, I might ask you to look again and see if you did not mistype on some of those.

[Other Tom]

I'm extremely interested in the comments by that activist posted by GMax. I think that feeling is beginning to grow, and I expect we'll see a lot more of it from all quarters. There's going to be a hell of a lot of fresh scrutiny of Obama starting very soon, and there is likely to be a recognition by a great number of responsible Democrats that there's no there there. The fascinating question is whether the doubts will arise only after it's too late to stop the guy. I really don't think the country will elect him in November--a healthy dose of sobriety will doom him.

As for Larry's question, I think I come out in favor of her losing the nomination. How nice for that awful pair to be rejected by their own party.

[MikeS]

I agree with John Lewis. I’ve decided to support Barrack Obama. I had an epiphany yesterday. I listened to an Obama speech, something trickled down my leg, and it all became so clear to me.

We can have world peace and universal health care. We can put an end to poverty. We can be proud of America again if we just believe in change and hope, and if we hope for a change we can believe in.

Some people say hoping for a better world is not enough, that it won’t get us anywhere, but just look at Barrack. All he has ever done is hope for a change and talk about hoping and changing. Now he’s damn near the President of the United States. So we know it works if only people will listen to Obama, he can give people confidence that it will work.

The old ways don’t work! We used to collaborate with our allies and bomb our enemies, but that was the old way. Barrack wants to bomb allies such as Pakistan and invite Amadinijad to the White House for a little collaboration. Obama believes in so many other wonderful things that it could fill most of the books in the world.

I know some people will say it sounds too good to be true, but that is just because they are racists.

[Other Tom]

ARG now has Obama up in Texas, 48-42. Can this be real?

[clarice]

OT I have found ARG's work to be extremely suspect and off the mark.
MikeS, I suspect it's only a matter of time before the Minister of Hope asks his followers to touch the prayer shawl he's selling to the screen of their tvs and whatever they hope for will come to pass.

The men from Hope (huck and Bill) ; now the dopey hope. I wish they'd charge people everytime they used the words" hope" and "change" in this campaign/ What are they anyway? Mental emetics?

[GMax]

ARG has hugely wrong a bunch this year. There model seems to be very broken. Stick with Rasmussen, he has been pretty close all along.

[PaulL]

I'm eager to prove that I'm not a racist by voting for a black man. But does voting for Obama, who is half white, really absolve me of guilt? Wouldn't it be better to wait to vote for a totally black candidate? Can't someone accuse me of voting for Obama only because he is half white?

[GMax]

I did not realize that Obama has Zbig Brezinski as his foreign policy advisor. Perhaps the worst cabinet member out of the whole clown show that was Jimmy Carter's memorable four years of utter incompetence and fecklessness.

This guy flat out hates Israel, and apparently was just in Syria visiting with Assad. I wonder if he was able to pay his last respects to the dead Hezbollah terrorist while there?

Wonder if the Jewish voting block for Change, has noted that change may mean no more Israel?

[MikeS]

I suspect it's only a matter of time before the Minister of Hope asks his followers to touch the prayer shawl he's selling to the screen of their tvs and whatever they hope for will come to pass.

 The prayer shawl is temporarily a web page Clarice. You don't have to touch it. You just click the Donate button, while believing in hope and change.
 

[Porchlight]

I agree with OT that the "Obama has no substance/cult of personality" whispers are getting louder. I think we are hearing the sound of the stage being set for yet another RW comeback. If the numbers aren't overwhelmingly in his favor after the primaries are over, Obama will be patted on the head, told he has a bright future in the party, and asked to graciously withdraw.

[Porchlight]

Gmax, those Obama comments from Dems youv'e been been posting have been fascinating. Please keep 'em coming.

[Paul]

"In my 30 years of doing this," Jarding said, "I have never seen anything like the swooning the ... primarily television media has done over Obama."

Eventually, that will change. Jarding hopes it happens in time for Democrats to know everything they need to about the man who aspires to be their great hope in 2008."

Why will it change? The media will shamelessly promote him as the second coming right through the election, and will bury any and all criticisms. Every bit of dirt they can dig up on McCain will be front and center in the MSM's fisheye lens however. This is as close to a religious experience as these folks will ever get and they are going to ride this magic carpet until it dissolves underneath them when cold hard reality forces its hand. Unfortunately we'll all pay for this world historical folly.

The problem with experts and pundits is that they are experts on everything that has been, and are the most blind to what is truly new and different on the horizon as they try to fit it to the template of precedent.

[Other Tom]

Is Bubba still rallying the troops, or has he been completely muzzled?

[Sue]

Gmax,

All of our local officials are still democrats. They will die democrats. And they are more conservative than the republicans around here.

I just don't think conservative democrats will vote for Obama in huge numbers.

[Ann]

" The fascinating question is whether the doubts will arise only after it's too late to stop the guy." Other Tom

They have no doubts about Global Warming, they have no doubts that "Bush lied, men died", nor do they doubt that Bush is listening in to all their phone conversations.

Nah, no doubters, all believers to the glorious end. :)

[GMax]

Rockwall, the smallest county in the big place called Texas. Ralph Hall lifelong Democrat switched parties. Its only a matter of time Sue, a tipping point will be reached and you one will wonder where have all the Democrats gone? Answer will be they are now Republicans.

[Jane]

Off Topic:

The marines got way-laid in NH and unlike Berkeley the town came out to welcome them. (link under my name - via Don Surber).

See we aren't all nuts in the Northeast. And I'm such a wus it made me cry like Hillary.

[Other Tom]

I don't see Obama going out gently. If he has a pledged-delegate lead going into the convention, any result other than his being at the top of the ticket is going to be very deeply resented by a very large portion of black America. Bob Beckel says the two will be the ticket, one way or the other, but I'm not so sure.

But the Undead One is, well, still Undead.

[Rick Ballard]

Gmax,

The Dem primary turnout in '04 was 30% of the total Dem vote in the general. If voter enthusiasm were evenly spread in those Rep districts, BHO wouldn't have a prayer but if the black portion (10-17%) turns out and votes as it did along the Atlantic shore then it's quite possible that it will overcome what would normally be a 60/40 split in favor of RW. Toss in the weighting factor that TT mentioned and I don't believe that Rasmussen's 54/38 is going to represent the delegate outcome at all.

That's if BHO Fever continues, of course. It may already be peaking.

[bio mom]

Obama also has Samantha Power as a foreign policy advisor. The soft-spoken, lovely lady is a big Israel hater too. Yes, we would have Jimmy Carter's second term here. Frightening prospect.

[GMax]

OK

Then we have an indication of what to look for. If Black voting % of the Democrat vote climb into the middle 20% or more in Texas, he will still lose but may actually be able to capture something close to a equal share of the delegates.

I dont think Obamania has made it to Texas, and I think I know those three or four districts pretty well. I dont think its Obama country at all.

But I could be wrong, as Democrats are such a small portion of all those areas that they never get much chance to influence anything. Maybe I have just not noticed the heavy look aid drinkers before!

[GMax]

Look is transposed it should be kool

Sheesh this grape koolaide is pretty tasty stuff!

[Sue]

Ralph Hall lifelong Democrat switched parties.

He voted with republicans. But, they will have to die off, those democrats, because they were born a democrat and will die a democrat, or so I'm always told.

[Sue]

I'm excited about March 4th. For the first time in my voting career my vote might matter. I can't decide thought whether to stick a fork in Hillary or keep her alive to beat up another day. I know what OT would say do. But, I've got a $100 bet riding on her being the nominee. What to do?

[Sue]

I'm voting in the democratic primary. McCain will have to sink or swim on his own. We have a hotly contested sheriff's race in the dem primary.

[MayBee]

Only vote for someone you can live with if they win.