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February 13, 2008

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MayBee

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02142008/gossip/pagesix/spy_story_97527.htm>Here's another great photo selection from the NYPost.

Rick Ballard

Rich,

I'm not sure that a search for coherent logic in any statement by Sharpton is an effective use of time. I certainly hope that a full exploration of the Animal Farm ethics involved in establishing Democrat Superdelegates might be fully explored in a court setting. I would be fascinated by the explanation as to why the Democrat majority's decision is unworthy of being followed due to the ease with which they are manipulated by Democrat candidates.

I do find it a compelling argument, with the rise of Napoleon Clinton being irrefutable prima facie evidence, but hearing Lanny Davis explain in court why some Democrats are Equality Status II while others should be grateful and satisfied with Equality Status I rank would be a hoot.

I wonder when note will be made that RW booted a Hispanic woman in order to elevate a black woman? Is that a smart move prior to the Texas primary? I don't have my Top Ten Rules for Identity Politics handy at the moment.

anduril

According to today's WSJ, Hillary's people or out drumming up money, so she hasn't given up yet. The WSJ reports they're trying to hit up the AIPAC people, presumably on hears of Obama's foreign policy predilections.

anduril

...presumably on hears fears of Obama's foreign policy predilections.

kim

MayBee, I'm really, really curious about what the director's 'really, really insane take' on the affair is.
============================

anduril

ARRRGHHH!

Hillary's people or are out drumming up money

kim

AIPAC! Ironies on ironies. Hey, her only hope now is to grab Joltin' Joe Lieberman, and I'm pretty sure he's too much a mensch to accept.
============

kim

Tom's probably sitting on an email from Doug Liman. He could do worse.
=====================

RichatUF

Maybee-

That's what I was going to say!

I had to read that passage 3 times before it clicked.

cathyf-

FL [don't know about MI] is a closed primary-all they would have to do is check the voter registration cards at the door. Problem that I would see is with absentee voting-how would they get the ballots out and back in time?

JMH-

I don't see any real basis for a suit, do you?

Watched Washington 2004. I thought after the second re-count, which Gregoire lost, the election was over. Then a whole new round of lawsuits after King County found some missing ballot boxes-equal protection- they had to be counted [the problems overall were concentrated in King and Pierce Counties {Seattle and Tacoma}]. Its been a while since I reviewed it so I'm rusty on the details. There were lots of recounts and lawsuits.

I'm not sure what Clinton and Obama will sue one another over regarding MI and FL, but if Cost is right and Clinton is going to do better in the coming primaries, MI and FL might become important to Obama as well. MI had this candidate "Uncommitted" that has a voting record suspiciously like Obama's-he could finally take a stand and come over to Obama's side.

kim

Note, MayBee, that the NYPost article says that Plame was 'outed' by a State Department official. Liman also says he's not worried about CIA censorship.

Maybe, maybe, maybe.
======================

MayBee

The most reasonable assertion is that FL and MI conducted statewide straw polls, and that neither state has conducted a Democratic primary yet. The obvious remedy would be for FL and MI to be forced to hold a primary/caucus/whatever and to choose Democratic delegates sometime before the deadline

Michigan and Florida taxpayers can't be forced to pay for it-- they already paid for the one the legislature required and the DNC chose not to count.
Michigan has one of the worst economies in the nation. If the DNC wants another election there, they'd have to pay for it. Which would probably mean caucuses (cauci?).

GMax

Dallas Morning News is endorsing him. You can bet he is the most liberal if DMN is endorsing him.

Actually we disagree on that. The DMN is one of the few remaining readable dailies in the country. I would say they do lean ever so slightly right. And they do like to balance their voter recommendations with candidates from both parties and are usually more interested in who would be better for job growth and the business climate in general, all the way down to City Council elections.

Despite living on the Ft Worth side of DFW, I had a DMN subscription for years and have never had one for the Star Telegram which is a predictable leftist slanted piece of trash on all things political.

MayBee

Kim- Maybe the screen would go dark where the book is redacted. Brilliant!
I'll bet money that Nicole Kidman won't touch this stupid movie. I'll bet more money that the whole project never really gets off the ground.

kim

I'm tellin' ya, he could make movie history and have an instant cult classic if his 'insane idea' is the truth.
======================

kim

Yeah, MayBee, it's far more likely I'm insane than he is. Oh well, time for a little more Joe. Java type Joe, I mean.
==================

JM Hanes

Rich:

On the thinking out loud front, you can certainly count on Sharpton to identify a bellwether issue, and it occurs to me that this whole brouhaha is a real twofer for Obama. He can play the race card with the best of them and it dovetails neatly with the anything-to-win villain card.

I see a similarly convenient strawman in the idea that uncommitted superdelegates would actually give it up for Hillary after an Obama win. Hillary certainly isn't the one demagoguing that issue -- in fact I think the attack on Shuster for pimping Chelsea was mostly about diverting attention from the real superdelegate play. She desperately needs those endorsements now, before Ohio, Texas & Pa., not later. The only real question then will be whether she can count on the ones she's already chalked up where constituents have broken for Obama.

hit and run

Edwards may call Obama a [p-word denoting female….ah crud, won't someone close this pandora's b...crud somebody please make it stop] but some people think he actually has one

"If Clinton loses the nomination, do women lose? Rights? Power? Visibility? Clout? Are they not taken as seriously by the political establishment? A month ago I would have told you yes. Now I believe the answer is no. Why? Because metrosexual, pro-choice, pro-health care, anti-poverty Obama is, in every political sense at least, more of a woman than Clinton."

"Still Clinton's female supporters who are watching Obama's movement coalesce, solidify and take over should console themselves there will be a woman Democrat in the White House either way if the Democrats win the general election. The nominee will either be a woman with double-X chromosomes, or one with XY chromosomes who votes more like a woman than most with XX."



via American Thinker

TMI? Over the line?

I Blame Bus...crap there is no escaping this is there?

Middyfeek

I don't much care for Obama or McCain, but I despise the Clintons. They're just a couple of posturing parasites. Most people with three digit IQs saw through them in 1992. If you cant see through them even now, you're not too bright.

This election is as easy as ABC, anybody but Clinton.

Sue

Despite living on the Ft Worth side of DFW, I had a DMN subscription for years and have never had one for the Star Telegram which is a predictable leftist slanted piece of trash on all things political.

Wow. That really surprises me.

Rick Ballard

"The only real question then will be whether she can count on the ones she's already chalked up where constituents have broken for Obama."

Only if she can put a Broom brand on them and notch their ears. The Superdem support is a pol's promise. Not exactly bankable. That said, nobody in his right mind would break away from her until they were absolutely positive that she wasn't going to make it. Who wants to have their own personal IRS agent on speed dial?

Porchlight

Has anyone seen any recent Texas polls? RCP has only one up, from April-May 2007. Very strange.

RichatUF

JMH-

He can play the race card with the best of them and it dovetails neatly with the anything-to-win villain card.

Interesting. However, wouldn't this play into Bill's SC stumping "Obama is Jesse Jackson lite" and couldn't it backfire [for Obama] in the "homogeneous white states" where Obama has heretofore done well and possibly make more difficult Obama's attempts to reach hispanic voters.

Democrat primary voters already know that the Clinton's are liars and cheaters-I believe they fully expect a fight regarding FL and MI, if not now, definitely during the convention. Could the super-delegates vote to seat a FL and MI delegation once the convention begins? I see your point regarding leaning on them now, but I'm sure Obama has a list of the weakest of the bunch and is working on them too as we type.

RichatUF

Rick-

I wonder when note will be made that RW booted a Hispanic woman in order to elevate a black woman? Is that a smart move prior to the Texas primary?

I have noticed that the Che flag in Obama's office was made into a much bigger flap than RW sacking her top latina. Patti needed to spend much more time with her family anyway.

MayBee

Patti needed to spend much more time with her family anyway.

I notice that Solis-Doyle is quite attractive. Perhaps it was Huma that wanted her out.

Sue

I notice that Solis-Doyle is quite attractive. Perhaps it was Huma that wanted her out.

Or Hillary. Coming on the heels of promising no new scandals involving Bill.

RichatUF

No joy in Red Witchville

via Drudge-and please, could he have found a more unflattering picture of Chelsea Clinton-think excorcist. YIKES!!!

GMax

Expect some Texas polls shortly, especially if it tends to show Hill in the lead, otherwise it will remain "internal". The reason no one polled Texas was that no one expected the coronation to be delayed that long and that is the truth.

Other Tom

Pretty sure no court would take jurisdiction of an internal Dem party squabble over seating delegates. The national and state parties can make their own rules about who does and does not get to vote, subject only to constitutional prohibitions against invidious discrimination.

Shame on me for omitting the heroic Jeane Kirkpatrick...

RCP has a new Ohio poll with Hillary way up.

Wonderful poll--I think it's Pew--rating presidents all-time. Ronaldus Maximus finishes second behind Lincoln. For president from FDR to the present, RR is number one; Bush is worst and Clinton is second-worst. Bubba will no doubt be heard from on that one.

Jane

My current best case scenereo:

Clinton comes back and wins Ohio and Texas and wins legitimately in a close, close race. Superdelegates vote accordingly to give her the nomination. Nutroots refuse to believe it's not rigged, file suit, and blacks leave the party in droves.

Porchlight

Thanks, Gmax. What made me wonder is that there are plenty of recent OH and PA polls, but crickets for TX.

I hope they call me. Anyone know what polling orgs look like on the caller ID?

Other Tom

Jane, we're on exactly the same page. The only better scenario would be if Obama actually actually had a slender delegate lead, and the superdelegates gave it to Hillary. Then she picks some whitebread VP and McCain picks Michael Steele. Wahoo!

JM Hanes

Rich:

But those examples come from official elections, not party primaries which are an entirely different legal proposition. Caucuses, for example, as the very antithesis of one man/one vote secret balloting, would be absolute non-starters if election precedent applied.

Apalled Moderate:

Your unchanged history scenario strikes me as the least plausible of alternatives! Just for starters, the ill will between Clintons and Gores long preceeded election 2000, and the idea that Hillary could have ridden a wave of public sympathy into the Senate without a friend in the White House seriously taxes the imagination. That would have been a two year relief, by the way, not one.

There's a reason for the enduring popularity of science fiction stories in which the hero who goes back in time is warned against interfering with history in even the most minor fashion. I'd say the surest bet is that subsequent events would have unfolded very differently.

Jane

OT - I swear I said the same thing about Michael Steele, just not here. GMTA and all that. The only problem I see is that I doubt Michael Steele will be willing to pander to the blacks as much as might be needed.

JM Hanes

Ricj:

"...couldn't it backfire [for Obama]..."

Yes, I think it could too. He's played it pretty carefully, but it's still clearly playing with fire. Exit polls with numbers that start out in the 80% range suggest that he's already got the black vote locked up, so I wonder if maybe he's less interested in courting someone like Al Sharpton than in neutralizing him. I'd think that the faster Sharpton can be back burnered the better, and it will be interesting to see if Obama is savvy enough to do it.

Appalled Moderate

JMH:

I think what matters more in this instance is the brand name fame, and Hillary's reputation as the wife standing by her man through thick and thin. (Not terribly feminist, but Hillary's path to success is about as non-feminist as it gets.)

Gore's antipathy to Clinton would not have mattered one bit. The best thing he could do for the party would be to agree that Bill was wronged -- horribly wronged. After all, of he were in the Presidency, he does not have to worry about her Presidential ambitions if she's running for Senate.

But, it really is all speculation. We are where we are, regardless. (And I wait for the sci fi novel where the hero changes history, just to find out it all ended up the same anyway. I tend to think the Flitcraft episode in the novel verson of the Maltese Falcon is how potentially life-changing things usually end up shaking out.)

Other Tom

Jane, I don't see why Steele would have to pander--if he's on the ticket, and blacks see Obama as having been screwed out of the nomination, they'll vote the GOP ticket overwhelmingly. And if Steele doesn't want the job, I'd love to see J.C. Watts instead.

I do recall your expressing some very strong thoughts favoring Steele a few days ago...

MayBee

and blacks see Obama as having been screwed out of the nomination, they'll vote the GOP ticket overwhelmingly.

You know, I don't know about that. I think black politicians that are Republican are less "black" than black politicians that are Democrats. The thing is, so-called black issues are really just liberal positions, and the black vote is really the Democratic vote. Black republicans are really just seen as Republicans.

hit and run

Y'all did see Romney to endorse McCain today right?

kim

Y'all did see Lincoln Chafee endorse Obama yesterday right?
=================================

Jane

The thing is, so-called black issues are really just liberal positions

Maybee,

I see a huge percentage of the electorate voting by indoctrination. "Republicans are bad", so they vote democrat. Someone told them that years ago and nothing has changed. (And I suspect in other parts of the country, it is "Republicans are good".)

I really don't think most people vote their self interest, they vote what they believe is their self interest. Blacks traditionally vote democrat because someone they trust told them that if anyone will protect their self-interest it is democrats. They simply are too busy to figure out if that is true. And I think people of all colors and stripes do the same thing.

Do you think 1% of the electorate really knows what they are voting for? I have my doubts.

clarice

I flew into Fla today and on the way from the airport heard a bit of Rush. He has a great fake Obama ad .Snippet--valley girl on why hope is important "The past is so like history."

Uproarious.

He sees this much as cathy and others have--a giant blowout in Denver. He thinks the superdelegates will go with Clinton out ofprejudice and fear.

As to the court fight on Mi and Fla--I don't see any grounds. It's a voluntary organization and they have every right to set the rules, but then the Fla Sup Ct repeatedly astonished me in 2000, so don't bank on that.

It is hilarious to see the "Count every vote crowd" switch gears so effortlessly to the "Don't count every vote" side, isn't it?
Carry on.

Paul

Blacks vote Dem because they overwhelmingly assume Republican = white racist. Period. I am a musician and have been in black bands all my life, and am used to being the only white face in the place. I can guarantee voting Republican is simply unthinkable for at least 95% of blacks.

RichatUF

clarice and JMH-

...not party primaries which are an entirely different legal proposition...

So free association would hold-private organizations can make their own rules; however, both the RW and BHO could make various arguments that not seating the delegations would be discriminatory [especially MI] in practice and that state law made them hold their primaries early?

And while I was typing this comment I googled up this gem, DiMaio v. Democratic National Committee and Florida Democratic Party which was dismissed in Oct 2007. Don't know where it is in the process at this point, but DiMaio has filed another appeal.

found here

I didn't see any relevant, pending cases regarding MI yet.

Porchlight

I see a huge percentage of the electorate voting by indoctrination.

Jay Cost has a post today on polling that touches on this. He suggests that voters use shortcuts, and the number one shortcut is party ID. So you're right, for the vast majority, it's "Democrats good, Republicans bad" or the reverse.

I remember a few years ago listening to someone complain that "stupid frat boys" only vote Republican because their parents told them to. Earlier in the same conversation she had talked about how proud she was of how her parents had raised her to be a good Democrat. Funny how people think (or don't think).

Topsecretk9

Shocker

As Congress debates giving immunity to phone companies that assisted the government in tracking terrorist communications, trial lawyers prosecuting those phone companies have poured money into the coffers of Democratic senators, representatives and causes.

Court records and campaign contribution data reveal that 66 trial lawyers representing plaintiffs in lawsuits against these phone companies donated at least $1.5 million to 44 different current Democratic senators and Democratic causes.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nev., second from left, meets reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 7, 2008, after Senate Democrats and Republicans reached agreement on an economic stimulus package. From left are, Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., Reid, Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., and Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash.

All of the trial lawyers combined only contributed $4,250 to Republicans in comparison. Those contributions were made to: Sen. John Cornyn (Tex.), Rep. Tom Davis (Va.), Sen. Lindsay Graham (S.C.), Sen. Mel Martinez, and Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.).

Topsecretk9

Linky to the Dems Trial Lawyer Money

clarice

Rich, I guess the argument would be that regardless of state law, the Mi Dems could comply with DNC rules by announcing ahead of time that that primary would not count and then hold a caucus or something else later that complied with DNC rules. I think it an awful precedent for courts to get in the middle of this.

GMax

Michael Steele is not a pick based on his skin color. He is an articulate young conservative voice with a proven ability to collect votes in a Blue enclave. If it were just a play for skin color I would be appalled and not very moderate about it. If he were able to peel off 1 -2 % of blacks who thought that it was important to vote for a man of color when nominated that would actually be gravy. He would be an apparent answer when the tripe about the rainbow party got played for the undiscerning public though and a fine answer that would not require follow up.

hit and run

I posted some poll numbers via Geraghty upthread on WI voters not trusting the Dem plan for Iraq more than Bush.

Instapundit picked up on them too:

SOME INTERESTING poll data from Wisconsin.

UPDATE: Some related thoughts at The American Thinker.


Oh and that second link is something else he picked up.

clarice

Hit--very good, bubbale. Smooches

kim

Notice that the Wisconsin poll didn't compare Democrats to Republicans, it compared Democrats to Bush.

I don't know about this President who lied us into a war we've nearly won.
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Ann

Hit, that was great. Speaking of dear old Nancy, I wonder how her comments and antics with the Fisa bill would poll.

She actually said:

"The President and House Republicans refused to support the extension and therefore will bear the responsibility should any adverse national consequences result."

Pelosi Statement on House Vote on FISA

OBloodyHell

NOW and "Capital F" feminists lost all credibility when they continued to support Bill after he sexually harassed his interns.

(No, not Monica. All those OTHER interns who did NOT get cushy Pentagon jobs and other frippery in return for a presidential hummer).

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Wilson/Plame