Noam Scheiber is agog over Barack's surge in North Carolina:
Wow, this is either a statistical fluke or a pretty remarkable turn-around. A week ago, Public Policy Polling, an outfit I hadn't heard of before this year but which has had a respectable run during the primaries, had Obama up only a single point on Clinton in North Carolina. In a poll out today, he's up 21 points.
Statistical fluke, dramatic turn-around, or... change in methodology? Go with "methodology" - Mickey Kaus had this, emphasis added:
In North Carolina, Obama doesn't seem to be losing ground. He's up 21 points, according to the RPP poll. He was up only one point in the same poll a week ago--although the results aren't strictly comparable because RPP expanded its universe of "likely" voters this week to include all 2006 general election participants. Still. ... Obama gained substantially (19 points) among white voters.
DIVIDED THEY FALL:
Gallup has a survey of likely Dem defectors:
If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain;
If McCain vs. Clinton, 19% of Obama backers go for McCain
My guess? It is easier for elderly and working class whites to defect to the war hero than it is for blacks and hipsters to defect to the old white guy. Or from a more negative perspective, I bet it is easy for elderly and working class whites to resist the appeals of the Glib Lib grievance candidate, although it can't be hard for blacks and hipsters to be turned off by the nagging white woman. But a caveat - I am not nearly smart enough to be a Dem strategist. Just for example, I would never have figured out to disenfranchise Florida and Michigan.
HILLARY'S APPEAL: Help me here - do youngsters see Hillary as the cool aunt they would like to go shopping with or the nagging grandmother always pushing Brussels sprouts at them? Tough call!
FWIW, I am advised by a youngster who met John Sidney McCain at a barbecue in New Hampshire that he is a lot of fun in a small group, or at least, not nearly as boring as might be expected; must be those Annapolis hellion days.