These pollsters are excited to report that Clinton is "closing in on Obama" in North Carolina. Hold on:
Clinton closing in on Obama in NC
Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton has cut Barack Obama’s lead in North Carolina to one
point, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
Obama leads 44-43 in the state, after leading by four points in a similar poll conducted by PPP two weeks ago.
Eventually we get this caveat:
PPP surveyed 521 likely Democratic primary voters on March 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
As a point estimate, the single best guess is that Hillary is in fact narrowing the gap in North Carolina. However, based on the margins of error for the two polls we do not have a statistical basis for rejecting the alternative hypothesis that the gap has not changed. True pedants will note that it is even a statistical possibility that the actual gap has widened.
Right after that 11 state winning streak, it's possible that Obama will have nearly as tough a slump as Hillary suffered, losing Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina (maybe), West Virginia, and Kentucky.
(Yes, yes, he won Wyoming and Mississippi in there.)
Is there any doubt why Obama is resisting the re-vote in Florida and Michigan? Try to picture him losing those two states as well as those listed above and then trying to persuade the superdelegates of his inevitability.