A Day For Voting (And Bursting Into Song!)

Finally, the good people of the great states of Indiana and North Carolina formally weigh in on Wright, Ayers, Bosnia, the gas tax holiday, and all the other issues and distractions before them.  So which candidate will end the evening rocking down to "Indiana Wants Me"?  And who will be belting out a quick stanza of "Nothing Could be Finer Than To Be In Carolina In The Mooooornin'"?

My utterly unscientific prediction follows the principle established in Pennsylvania - neither Howard Dean's luck nor the luck of the Democratic Party has changed, so the result tonight will be whatever is necessary to maximize confusion.  That will mean Barack wins North Carolina, Hillary wins Indiana (and the white sub-primary in North Carolina, natch), and neither margin will be viewed by anyone as decisive.

Comments

[Jane]

Well let me be the first to wish everyone a fabulous and sunny good morning. The polls are open, let the confusion begin! I predicted Hillary by 9 in Indiana and Obama by 2 in NC. I'm hedging on NC today, but will stick with my original prediction.

For those of you predicting with actual vote counts - I tip my hat!

Let the games (and songs) begin!

[windansea]

I see white people

[clarice]

Mornin' Jane. Girlfriend, I hope you and TM are right. Let chaos reign! (Rain? Rein?) Whatever.

[Neo]

Go placidly amid the noise and waste,
and render what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
Avoid quiet and placid people, unless you are in need of sleep.
Rotate your tires.
Speak glowingly of those greater than yourself, and heed well their advice,
even though they be turkeys.
Know what to kiss, and when.
Consider that two wrongs never make a right, but that three do.
Whenever possible, put people on hold.
Be comforted that in the face of all idiocity and dissolusionment, and
and despite the changing fortunes of time,
There is always a big future in computer maintainance.

You are a Fluke of the Universe. You have no right to be here, and whether you can hear it or not, the Universe is laughing behind you back.

Remember the Pueblo.
Strive at all times to bend, Fold, Spindle and Mutilate.
Know yourself.
If you need help, call the F.B.I.
Exercise caution in your daily affairs, especially with those persons
closest to yourself.
That lemon on your left, for instance.
be assured that a walk throught the ocean of most souls would
scarecely get your feet wet.
Fall not in love, therefor, it will stick to your face.
Gracefully surrender the things of Youth, Birds, Clean Air,
Tuna, Taiwan.
And let not the sands of time get in your lunch.
Hire people with hooks.
For a good time, call 606-4311... ask for Candy.
Take heart in the deepening gloom that your dog is finally getting
enough cheese.
And reflect that whatever misfortune may be your lot,
it could only be worse in milwalkee.

You are a Fluke of the Universe. You have no right to be here, and whether you can hear it or not, the Universe is laughing behind you back.

Therefor, amke peace with your god, whatever you may percieve him to be;
Hairy Thunderer, or Cosmic Muffin.
With all its Hopes, Dreams, Promises, and Urban Renewal,
the world continues to deteriorate.

GIVE UP!

You are a Fluke of the Universe. You have no right to be here, and whether you can hear it or not, the Universe is laughing behind you back.

[Jane]

Test your knowledge of the Messiah: LUN

[Porchlight]

I'll stick with my earlier, CW prediction - Hill by 9 in IN, O by 5 in NC.

SIMH:

Go lightly from the ledge babe
Go lightly on the ground
We're not the ones we were waiting for
We will only let us down

[Buford Gooch]

Hillary by eight in Indiana, Obama by nine in NC

[Appalled]

I will go with Gooch's prediction.

You guys predicting a smaller Obama margin are ignoring the large afro-american percentage in the early voting in NC.

[centralcal]

Jane, that was some quiz! Should be done in a video format and put on YouTube.

May the chaos be with you all!

OH HAPPY DAY.

[Sue]

Well, I'm a republican. However, I'll just say you could guess on some of them and be right. The names should have been similar to make it more difficult.

[Jane]

Appalled,

Perhaps you are underestimating some black people... just a thought.

[Sue]

Zogby has Obama with a sweep today. Taking NC by significant numbers and just edging her out in Indiana.

[Sue]

RCP still has Obama in NC and Hillary in IN.

[Appalled]

Jane:

Remember. The alternative is Hillary. What incentve do the afro-americans have to vote fr her? How is she better for that community?

Sue:

Zogby has perfected the fine art of being embarassingly wrong. It's pssoble the polls are undercalling the Obama margin in NC, but I consider it equaly likely the polls are undercalling Hillary's margin in Indiana.

[MayBee]

Are we still saying "afro-americans"?
Are all black people members of the African-American community?
Let's ask Sheila Jackson-Lee why a black person might vote for Hillary.

[Sue]

Obama is turning into the typical black candidate. I can say that, can't I? Didn't Obama allow that with his own remarks? Anyway, blacks are voting for Obama in huge numbers that Hillary can't overcome. I saw somewhere that Zogby overpolled blacks in his 12 point victory for Obama. I still think he wins NC but unless it is double digits, she will be able to live to fight another day. Actually, she isn't going anywhere just yet. I think having gone this far, she'll ride it out and hope Obama implodes on his on, or with a little help from her.

[Porchlight]

Appalled,

Try to remember as far back as the 90's when the Clintons were considered to be every black person's saviors. I don't disagree with you that in this race they are supporting Obama, but it's silly to imply that blacks never felt they had any reason to vote for a Clinton.

Hillary will clean up in the small towns in the western part of the state where Bill has been campaigning hard. That will offset (at least partially) the Af-Am vote.

[Jane]

What incentve do the afro-americans have to vote fr her?

Who the hell cares? They shouldn't vote for either of them. But I'm not convinced that all blacks are lockstep drones. Are you?

[ben]

Appalled's comment on the black vote, hoping blacks will pull Obama through, illustrates how far Obama has fallen since he has begun to lose the aura of inevitability. Once again, another Democrat hopes to get just enough liberal white votes along with a large black turnout to win. That's fine, its a formula that has worked recently for Democrats, but what happened to Obama the uniter, capable of drawing Independents and Republicans and cat lovers and dog lovers. Obama is now just a run-of-the-mill liberal running a traditional campaign. It's nothing to snear at, got 50% of the vote in 2000 and 48% in 2004, but the "different and new" is over.

[Danube of Thought]

"How is she better for that community?"

Is it at all conceivable that some AA's might base their vote on what is best for the nation as a whole?

[MayBee]

Is it at all conceivable that some AA's might base their vote on what is best for the nation as a whole?

Or even for themselves as individuals.
Imagine!

[Danube of Thought]

For those who are not yet sufficiently revolted by Mrs. Obama, go to the link under my name.

[kim]

We can't be having them vote soley in their economic interest.
===================================

[kim]

Gad, it must be 'solely'. They both look wrong.
============================

[kim]

Do I mean 'soully'?
===========

[Danube of Thought]

Here's Carville talking to Eleanor Clift:

"'The Republicans will eat him alive' is what the Clinton campaign is telling the superdelegates. Hillary is the tougher of the two, the candidate you want on your side in a knife fight, a gender reversal that prompts Carville to indulge in some ribald humor: 'If she gave him one of her cojones, they'd both have two.'"

You do the math.

[Chris]

Unfortunately for BO, Carville is probably right. Hillary! by 8 in Indiana and Barack? by 6 in NC.

[Appalled]

Porchlight:

Yes, I remember Bill back when he was our first black president. Problem is that he has morphed into our latest cracker ex-president.

The question on the western part of the state (which looks a lot like areas where Obama tanks) is whether they are voting in the Democratic primary.

DOT:

Take a few breaths and step away from the 24-7 Obama is evil. Hillary has her own 666 issues, don't you think? I think it's a bit much to expect a black person to believe, after this campaign, that Hillary is better for the country. (Frankly, their platforms are pretty similar, and they arguably have a similar magnitude of personality flaws.)

MayBee & Jane:

See my response to DOT. I don't think there is enough virtue in voting for Hillary to dissuade a black voter from the chance to vote for the first serious black presidential candidate in US history.

ben:

That Obama hopes to return sometime in June. We'll see if that happens. I think your analysis is pretty much right for the remaining primaries. I'm sure the Democratic leadership is real happy with Hillary/Bill about enabling that.

[Barry]

Solely is correct. You win the prize, a ticket ta an Obama rally...

[Barry]

"for the first serious black presidential candidate in US history."

Just curious Appalled, do you mean serious as in capable of winning? Or as a serious person?

[Appalled]

Barry:

Serious -- as in capable of winning.

[Danube of Thought]

"I think it's a bit much to expect a black person to believe, after this campaign, that Hillary is better for the country."

Could a white person believe it? If so, why not a black person? Is it a right-brain, left-brain thing?

[MayBee]

MayBee & Jane:

See my response to DOT. I don't think there is enough virtue in voting for Hillary to dissuade a black voter from the chance to vote for the first serious black presidential candidate in US history.

I find it appalling that you lump all black people together like this.
As I pointed out, Sheila Jackson-Lee is one prominent black Hillary supporter. Perhaps you know better than her.
But if you and I can see a difference between Obama and Hillary, do you think black people are just too stupid to similarly see a difference?

[Jane]

I don't think there is enough virtue in voting for Hillary to dissuade a black voter from the chance to vote for the first serious black presidential candidate in US history.

Appalled,

There isn't enough tea in China to get me to vote for the first serious woman candidate in history. You seem to be saying that the only thing blacks care about is identity politics. I guess we will find out.

[MayBee]

There are white women voting for Obama, are there not? They aren't voting with their assigned identy group. Yet millions of people that believe Hillary is better for the country. Why should black people be set apart?

[Appalled]

Jane & MayBee & DOT:

Blacks have been voting for Obama at a 90 - 95% rate through the primaries. I don't see that the Wright business or the Ayers business is going to change that. But, as our host likes to say, keep hope alive.

In honor of DOT, if I am wrong, I will have my crow on toast, with a side of carp.

[Danube of Thought]

Robert L. Johnson of BET is another, MayBee. And last I knew, so was Charlie Rangel.

[Danube of Thought]

"Blacks have been voting for Obama at a 90 - 95% rate through the primaries."

Does that mean they see him as best for the country? Best for themselves individually?Best for the black community? I take it from your earlier comment that it must be the latter.

[Appalled]

DOT

In my own experience, most people vote on what they think is best for them, and believe that, in so doing, they are voting for what is best for their community and the country.

[Hoosierhoops]

I went to the polls today and waited in line.. usually for a primary for me it's just walk in and wake up the old folks from thier nap and vote. :)
So i am predicting a record turnout..there was a obama rally last night in indy with 21,000 people. HRC half filled a high school gym. ( Steve Wonder played at the Obama Rally..thus 21k attending )
My prediction based on nothing more than gut feelings is Obama wins by 51-49.

[clarice]

Well, if Obama wins it will not speak well of Bayh who I always thought was Hill's first choice for her v-p. If he cannot deliver his state, his prestige will surely diminish.

[MayBee]

their community

I'm railing against the idea of a "black community". Enough individuals vote a certain way, and you've got yourself a voting demographic (or a marketing research demographic). To then expect all people that match certain criteria to vote within that demographic is ridiculous.

What incentve do the afro-americans have to vote fr her?
is strictly identity politics. Just because 90% of black people are voting for Obama that doesn't take away the incentive of individual black voters to vote for Hillary.

[Appalled]

Losing Indiana is the one thing that could take Hillary out of the race. I honestly don't see that happening.

[Nick Kasoff - The Thug Report]

Obama was supposed to be a candidate that transcended race. Instead, he is banking on getting 90% of the black vote to push him over the top. Seems like his candidate is just as much about race as Jesse Jackson's was.

Nick Kasoff
The Thug Report

[Sue]

Oh, I bet Juan Williams is a Clinton supporter. Maybe Appalled is talking about your typical black person.

[cathyf]

If Appalled's data is correct and blacks have been voting 90-95% for Obama, then, by the standard meanings of those words, there is a "typical" black person, and the typical black person voted for Obama.

Of course Appalled is notably unappalled by the state of affairs that, at least for some colors, it is quite accurate (90-95% accurate) to judge the content of their voting characteristicts by the color of their skins.

[Neo]

War protesters frustrated by apathy

[Danube of Thought]

I'm gonna make no predictions at all about today. Oh, what the hell--Obama wins N.C. big-time. Further affiant sayeth naught.

Ol' Zogby sure is an outlier, ain't he?

[Danube of Thought]

"...most people vote on what they think is best for them..."

Except in Kansas.

[Sue]

"...most people vote on what they think is best for them..."

That's great. So when Obama loses in a landslide in November, it was because we voted what we think best for us. Racism cannot be used as a reason.