A Day For Voting (And Bursting Into Song!)

Finally, the good people of the great states of Indiana and North Carolina formally weigh in on Wright, Ayers, Bosnia, the gas tax holiday, and all the other issues and distractions before them.  So which candidate will end the evening rocking down to "Indiana Wants Me"?  And who will be belting out a quick stanza of "Nothing Could be Finer Than To Be In Carolina In The Mooooornin'"?

My utterly unscientific prediction follows the principle established in Pennsylvania - neither Howard Dean's luck nor the luck of the Democratic Party has changed, so the result tonight will be whatever is necessary to maximize confusion.  That will mean Barack wins North Carolina, Hillary wins Indiana (and the white sub-primary in North Carolina, natch), and neither margin will be viewed by anyone as decisive.

Comments

[Jane]

Well let me be the first to wish everyone a fabulous and sunny good morning. The polls are open, let the confusion begin! I predicted Hillary by 9 in Indiana and Obama by 2 in NC. I'm hedging on NC today, but will stick with my original prediction.

For those of you predicting with actual vote counts - I tip my hat!

Let the games (and songs) begin!

[windansea]

I see white people

[clarice]

Mornin' Jane. Girlfriend, I hope you and TM are right. Let chaos reign! (Rain? Rein?) Whatever.

[Neo]

Go placidly amid the noise and waste,
and render what comfort there may be in owning a piece thereof.
Avoid quiet and placid people, unless you are in need of sleep.
Rotate your tires.
Speak glowingly of those greater than yourself, and heed well their advice,
even though they be turkeys.
Know what to kiss, and when.
Consider that two wrongs never make a right, but that three do.
Whenever possible, put people on hold.
Be comforted that in the face of all idiocity and dissolusionment, and
and despite the changing fortunes of time,
There is always a big future in computer maintainance.

You are a Fluke of the Universe. You have no right to be here, and whether you can hear it or not, the Universe is laughing behind you back.

Remember the Pueblo.
Strive at all times to bend, Fold, Spindle and Mutilate.
Know yourself.
If you need help, call the F.B.I.
Exercise caution in your daily affairs, especially with those persons
closest to yourself.
That lemon on your left, for instance.
be assured that a walk throught the ocean of most souls would
scarecely get your feet wet.
Fall not in love, therefor, it will stick to your face.
Gracefully surrender the things of Youth, Birds, Clean Air,
Tuna, Taiwan.
And let not the sands of time get in your lunch.
Hire people with hooks.
For a good time, call 606-4311... ask for Candy.
Take heart in the deepening gloom that your dog is finally getting
enough cheese.
And reflect that whatever misfortune may be your lot,
it could only be worse in milwalkee.

You are a Fluke of the Universe. You have no right to be here, and whether you can hear it or not, the Universe is laughing behind you back.

Therefor, amke peace with your god, whatever you may percieve him to be;
Hairy Thunderer, or Cosmic Muffin.
With all its Hopes, Dreams, Promises, and Urban Renewal,
the world continues to deteriorate.

GIVE UP!

You are a Fluke of the Universe. You have no right to be here, and whether you can hear it or not, the Universe is laughing behind you back.

[Jane]

Test your knowledge of the Messiah: LUN

[Porchlight]

I'll stick with my earlier, CW prediction - Hill by 9 in IN, O by 5 in NC.

SIMH:

Go lightly from the ledge babe
Go lightly on the ground
We're not the ones we were waiting for
We will only let us down

[Buford Gooch]

Hillary by eight in Indiana, Obama by nine in NC

[Appalled]

I will go with Gooch's prediction.

You guys predicting a smaller Obama margin are ignoring the large afro-american percentage in the early voting in NC.

[centralcal]

Jane, that was some quiz! Should be done in a video format and put on YouTube.

May the chaos be with you all!

OH HAPPY DAY.

[Sue]

Well, I'm a republican. However, I'll just say you could guess on some of them and be right. The names should have been similar to make it more difficult.

[Jane]

Appalled,

Perhaps you are underestimating some black people... just a thought.

[Sue]

Zogby has Obama with a sweep today. Taking NC by significant numbers and just edging her out in Indiana.

[Sue]

RCP still has Obama in NC and Hillary in IN.

[Appalled]

Jane:

Remember. The alternative is Hillary. What incentve do the afro-americans have to vote fr her? How is she better for that community?

Sue:

Zogby has perfected the fine art of being embarassingly wrong. It's pssoble the polls are undercalling the Obama margin in NC, but I consider it equaly likely the polls are undercalling Hillary's margin in Indiana.

[MayBee]

Are we still saying "afro-americans"?
Are all black people members of the African-American community?
Let's ask Sheila Jackson-Lee why a black person might vote for Hillary.

[Sue]

Obama is turning into the typical black candidate. I can say that, can't I? Didn't Obama allow that with his own remarks? Anyway, blacks are voting for Obama in huge numbers that Hillary can't overcome. I saw somewhere that Zogby overpolled blacks in his 12 point victory for Obama. I still think he wins NC but unless it is double digits, she will be able to live to fight another day. Actually, she isn't going anywhere just yet. I think having gone this far, she'll ride it out and hope Obama implodes on his on, or with a little help from her.

[Porchlight]

Appalled,

Try to remember as far back as the 90's when the Clintons were considered to be every black person's saviors. I don't disagree with you that in this race they are supporting Obama, but it's silly to imply that blacks never felt they had any reason to vote for a Clinton.

Hillary will clean up in the small towns in the western part of the state where Bill has been campaigning hard. That will offset (at least partially) the Af-Am vote.

[Jane]

What incentve do the afro-americans have to vote fr her?

Who the hell cares? They shouldn't vote for either of them. But I'm not convinced that all blacks are lockstep drones. Are you?

[ben]

Appalled's comment on the black vote, hoping blacks will pull Obama through, illustrates how far Obama has fallen since he has begun to lose the aura of inevitability. Once again, another Democrat hopes to get just enough liberal white votes along with a large black turnout to win. That's fine, its a formula that has worked recently for Democrats, but what happened to Obama the uniter, capable of drawing Independents and Republicans and cat lovers and dog lovers. Obama is now just a run-of-the-mill liberal running a traditional campaign. It's nothing to snear at, got 50% of the vote in 2000 and 48% in 2004, but the "different and new" is over.

[Danube of Thought]

"How is she better for that community?"

Is it at all conceivable that some AA's might base their vote on what is best for the nation as a whole?

[MayBee]

Is it at all conceivable that some AA's might base their vote on what is best for the nation as a whole?

Or even for themselves as individuals.
Imagine!

[Danube of Thought]

For those who are not yet sufficiently revolted by Mrs. Obama, go to the link under my name.

[kim]

We can't be having them vote soley in their economic interest.
===================================

[kim]

Gad, it must be 'solely'. They both look wrong.
============================

[kim]

Do I mean 'soully'?
===========

[Danube of Thought]

Here's Carville talking to Eleanor Clift:

"'The Republicans will eat him alive' is what the Clinton campaign is telling the superdelegates. Hillary is the tougher of the two, the candidate you want on your side in a knife fight, a gender reversal that prompts Carville to indulge in some ribald humor: 'If she gave him one of her cojones, they'd both have two.'"

You do the math.

[Chris]

Unfortunately for BO, Carville is probably right. Hillary! by 8 in Indiana and Barack? by 6 in NC.

[Appalled]

Porchlight:

Yes, I remember Bill back when he was our first black president. Problem is that he has morphed into our latest cracker ex-president.

The question on the western part of the state (which looks a lot like areas where Obama tanks) is whether they are voting in the Democratic primary.

DOT:

Take a few breaths and step away from the 24-7 Obama is evil. Hillary has her own 666 issues, don't you think? I think it's a bit much to expect a black person to believe, after this campaign, that Hillary is better for the country. (Frankly, their platforms are pretty similar, and they arguably have a similar magnitude of personality flaws.)

MayBee & Jane:

See my response to DOT. I don't think there is enough virtue in voting for Hillary to dissuade a black voter from the chance to vote for the first serious black presidential candidate in US history.

ben:

That Obama hopes to return sometime in June. We'll see if that happens. I think your analysis is pretty much right for the remaining primaries. I'm sure the Democratic leadership is real happy with Hillary/Bill about enabling that.

[Barry]

Solely is correct. You win the prize, a ticket ta an Obama rally...

[Barry]

"for the first serious black presidential candidate in US history."

Just curious Appalled, do you mean serious as in capable of winning? Or as a serious person?

[Appalled]

Barry:

Serious -- as in capable of winning.

[Danube of Thought]

"I think it's a bit much to expect a black person to believe, after this campaign, that Hillary is better for the country."

Could a white person believe it? If so, why not a black person? Is it a right-brain, left-brain thing?

[MayBee]

MayBee & Jane:

See my response to DOT. I don't think there is enough virtue in voting for Hillary to dissuade a black voter from the chance to vote for the first serious black presidential candidate in US history.

I find it appalling that you lump all black people together like this.
As I pointed out, Sheila Jackson-Lee is one prominent black Hillary supporter. Perhaps you know better than her.
But if you and I can see a difference between Obama and Hillary, do you think black people are just too stupid to similarly see a difference?

[Jane]

I don't think there is enough virtue in voting for Hillary to dissuade a black voter from the chance to vote for the first serious black presidential candidate in US history.

Appalled,

There isn't enough tea in China to get me to vote for the first serious woman candidate in history. You seem to be saying that the only thing blacks care about is identity politics. I guess we will find out.

[MayBee]

There are white women voting for Obama, are there not? They aren't voting with their assigned identy group. Yet millions of people that believe Hillary is better for the country. Why should black people be set apart?

[Appalled]

Jane & MayBee & DOT:

Blacks have been voting for Obama at a 90 - 95% rate through the primaries. I don't see that the Wright business or the Ayers business is going to change that. But, as our host likes to say, keep hope alive.

In honor of DOT, if I am wrong, I will have my crow on toast, with a side of carp.

[Danube of Thought]

Robert L. Johnson of BET is another, MayBee. And last I knew, so was Charlie Rangel.

[Danube of Thought]

"Blacks have been voting for Obama at a 90 - 95% rate through the primaries."

Does that mean they see him as best for the country? Best for themselves individually?Best for the black community? I take it from your earlier comment that it must be the latter.

[Appalled]

DOT

In my own experience, most people vote on what they think is best for them, and believe that, in so doing, they are voting for what is best for their community and the country.

[Hoosierhoops]

I went to the polls today and waited in line.. usually for a primary for me it's just walk in and wake up the old folks from thier nap and vote. :)
So i am predicting a record turnout..there was a obama rally last night in indy with 21,000 people. HRC half filled a high school gym. ( Steve Wonder played at the Obama Rally..thus 21k attending )
My prediction based on nothing more than gut feelings is Obama wins by 51-49.

[clarice]

Well, if Obama wins it will not speak well of Bayh who I always thought was Hill's first choice for her v-p. If he cannot deliver his state, his prestige will surely diminish.

[MayBee]

their community

I'm railing against the idea of a "black community". Enough individuals vote a certain way, and you've got yourself a voting demographic (or a marketing research demographic). To then expect all people that match certain criteria to vote within that demographic is ridiculous.

What incentve do the afro-americans have to vote fr her?
is strictly identity politics. Just because 90% of black people are voting for Obama that doesn't take away the incentive of individual black voters to vote for Hillary.

[Appalled]

Losing Indiana is the one thing that could take Hillary out of the race. I honestly don't see that happening.

[Nick Kasoff - The Thug Report]

Obama was supposed to be a candidate that transcended race. Instead, he is banking on getting 90% of the black vote to push him over the top. Seems like his candidate is just as much about race as Jesse Jackson's was.

Nick Kasoff
The Thug Report

[Sue]

Oh, I bet Juan Williams is a Clinton supporter. Maybe Appalled is talking about your typical black person.

[cathyf]

If Appalled's data is correct and blacks have been voting 90-95% for Obama, then, by the standard meanings of those words, there is a "typical" black person, and the typical black person voted for Obama.

Of course Appalled is notably unappalled by the state of affairs that, at least for some colors, it is quite accurate (90-95% accurate) to judge the content of their voting characteristicts by the color of their skins.

[Neo]

War protesters frustrated by apathy

[Danube of Thought]

I'm gonna make no predictions at all about today. Oh, what the hell--Obama wins N.C. big-time. Further affiant sayeth naught.

Ol' Zogby sure is an outlier, ain't he?

[Danube of Thought]

"...most people vote on what they think is best for them..."

Except in Kansas.

[Sue]

"...most people vote on what they think is best for them..."

That's great. So when Obama loses in a landslide in November, it was because we voted what we think best for us. Racism cannot be used as a reason.

[kim]

Well, actually, DoT, even in Kansas people vote on what they think is best for them. It is only the progressive elite who think that Kansans, or anyones for that matter, must vote only for their economic interest.

But I know you knew that. It's not what's the matter with Kansas, it is 'What is the matter with Democrats who don't like democracy'.
==============================

[davod]

Hilary will be the harder candidate to beat.

A lot of women will vote for the first woman president. Large numbers will put Hilary's problems down to Bill and look foreward to a new day.

[Neo]

Ward-Bopp voted for the Democrat she liked, but Jim Adams, 36, voted for Hillary Clinton to keep the race going beyond Indiana. He's a McCain backer and enjoys watching the Democrats fight. "In the end, I think McCain is going to win," Adams said, and then referred to controversial statements by Bill Clinton and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's pastor. "Bill can't keep his mouth shut, and the reverend can't keep his mouth shut."

[Sue]

A lot of women will vote for the first woman president.

Idiots. If she happens to win the nomination and win the WH, it will take another 200+ years to get a woman elected.

[Appalled]

cathyf:

Taking up mind reading? Because I don't ever recall writing anything about whether I favor or not favor block voting. (I really don't -- politics would be healthier is the black vote 70-30 or 60-40 for one of the parties instead of the current 90-10.

Sue:

If Obama loses in November, it won't be racism. It's not like the racist voters would flock to Hillary.

[Danube of Thought]

I agree with Davod that Hillary would be tougher to beat than Obama, and my guess is that she'd win.

I think any one of the three candidates will be an absolute disaster as president, but I fear an Obama disaster would have the potential for genuine catastrophe. The thought of that guy engaging the rest of the world on behalf of the US is extremely frightening.

[Sue]

It's not like the racist voters would flock to Hillary.

LOL. It must be in the DNA of a liberal. Has to be.

[Soylent Red]

If Obama loses in November, it won't be racism.

Oh I don't know about that Appalled. If there is anything to be learned at this stage of the game it's that nothing is really Obamessiah's fault.

So the narrative will go that it was racism.

Or it was that people weren't sufficiently educated on the superiority of his policies.

Or that people fear change.

Or that the media distracted voters.

Anything but that Obamessiah was deemed unqualified for the job.

[cathyf]

Taking up mind reading? Because I don't ever recall writing anything about whether I favor or not favor block voting.

I wasn't mind-reading at all. I was simply noting that I don't ever recall you expressing any outrage over these particular facts. And, sure enough, it seems that my memory in this matter matches yours...

[Danube of Thought]

Soylent:

Or that they found his wife appallingly repellent.

[Soylent Red]

Or that they found his wife appallingly repellent.

This, of course, is my reason for not voting for him. I can't stand the idea of looking at the bulldog face on a regular basis for four years.

And I would suggest that is not only my self-interest, but serves a greater aesthetic interest as well, like supporting the arts, and thus serves the public interest.

Therefore, believing MO is ugly and shouldn't be on TV, and working to achieve that, is a form of good citizenship.

[Appalled]

cathyf:

Have to call bs on that. What you said was I was (ha ha) notably unappalled about block voting by black folk. Now since everything I have written on this thread was an attempt at being predicative, rather than my thoughts on what is good and proper, you really had no data set to deduce my feelings on black bock voting.

I live in Atlanta, and have to deal with Atlanta's political machine -- a direct consequence of block voting -- on a regular basis. I actually feel pretty strongly on the issue, but the issue has never come up on these threads in this way, and, in any event, I don't see things changing -- except, perhaps if Obama gets elected, and the sense of a need for afro-american solidarity starts to fade.

[Jane]

LOL - you sold me Soylent!

[Soylent Red]

Jane:

Here's to Cindy McCain and Good Citizenship.

[Jane]

Soylent,

Indeed. It's very difficult to not be for Cindy McCain, particularly given the alternative.

[ben]

I think Obama is a weak candidate who should implode in the general election no matter what the MSM does. If I am wrong, it means the MSM, despite its decreasing viewership and readership, can still elect a President. We know that they would have elected John Kerry if not for the Internet debunking of their last minute National Guard hit piece on Bush. The question is whether the blogosphere will be able to compete enough with the MSM and debunk the idea that Obama is a serious candidate (as in qualification).

[Ralph L]

I think NC will be very close because unaffiliateds like me can vote in either party's primary. I'm off to vote for RW now. I ask for your prayers that I not barf on the voting machine.

[Ann]

Soylent,

Michelle Obama's Secret Service code name is renaissance.

LOL

I did not make that up! Renaissance

[cathyf]

Now since everything I have written on this thread was an attempt at being predicative, rather than my thoughts on what is good and proper, you really had no data set to deduce my feelings on black bock voting.

Well, to belabor the point past where I'm sure anyone cares, my point was that if you had been appalled by this topic, then we would have had a rich and detailed data set and no one would have had any doubt as to your feelings. That you did not express feelings expressed your lack of strong feelings. If you had even the level of "strong feelings" -- a level considerably below "appalled" -- then you would have surely expressed them.

You have adopted the nom de plum of "Appalled". In other words, you use the literary device of exaggeration -- of course you are not appalled about literally everything. I was using the literary device of poking fun at your exaggeration. I am surprised that you don't seem to "get it" since in the past your choice of handle has always seemed "half jest; full earnest" to you, too.

[hit and run]

I'm voting after work.

Still haven't made up my mind.

Writing in JMH is still an option for Governor, though.

[boris]

really had no data set to deduce my feelings

A fair interpretation of "notably unappalled" is observation: absence of evidence, rather than a claim of absence itself or evidence of absence.

[kim]

Excellent rhetoric, cf, for drawing out Appalled's reluctance to talk about black block voting. I suspect he's appalled, but not appalled in a manner which would fit his schtick here. A schtick which I enjoy, A; don't get me wrong.
====================

[Ralph L]

I voted for the state Dems who haven't been running TV ads, just to even things out a bit. I don't believe I've seen any Repub. ads. Who'da thunk a May 6 primary would have been important six month ago?

[Ralph L]

Althouse had a post on the DC madam's suicide note: I cannot live the next 6-8 years behind bars
to which I commented cleverly:
Didn't she know by now that 6-8 really means 4-6?
Thumps chest.

[hit and run]

I got like a half dozen calls for Hillary in the last week, inviting me to some rally.

They all showed up on caller ID as South Carolina calls.

Whatever that means...but no Obama calls (yay!) and no pollsters (darn!)

[Hoosierhoops]

soylent Red:
Anything but that Obamessiah was deemed unqualified for the job.

Please refer to him by his proper name:
Baby Jesus
:)

[Jim Miller]

Here are my predictions. (I excluded Zogby when I looked at the poll results.)

[JM Hanes]

RalphL:

"I think NC will be very close because unaffiliateds like me can vote in either party's primary."

Many thanks for mentioning that! I'm embarrassed to say that this unaffiliated voter thought it was a closed primary. Fortunately, hit & run must have already voted by now, because I'm sure I'd have lost my entire potential constituency with that admission.

I went for the Republican ballot and decided to approach it as a twofer: Somebody's got to do the Ronulan pushback, and I need all the desensitizing I can get when it comes to actually voting for John McCain. Poll workers were struggling with the vote tallying machine, so we left our loose paper ballots on an adjacent chair. Where were all the Democratic lawyers standing by for my complaint about irregularities? The parking lot was empty! Don't that beat all?

Apparently, our moment in the sun is already over. CNN barely waited for the polls to close to call NC for Obama and move on to Indiana.

[hit and run]

JMH: I too am unaffiliated and I too voted Republican. The word "democrat" just wouldn't come out of my mouth when the poll worker asked. That was the moment when I made my decision.

I have to admit that the touch screen voting machine didn't have an easily identifiable means of writing in a vote for Governor, you may have lost your only vote -- but your political constituency remains fired up and ready to go!

[JM Hanes]

We used the much superior paper ballot at my polling place! I was startled to discover Alan Keyes in the presidential lineup, and will be interested to know just how many voters could look at the collected list and actually tick off "no preference" -- even to protest the choices on offer.

[hit and run]

JMH -- I went to the booth and just picked McCain...and then after I left realized that "no preference" was a choice.

Oh the horror! I don't know if I will be able to sleep tonight having missed my chance to vote for "no preference".

Or as I like to call him, "Uncommitted"

[Sue]

Oh, dear. I don't think I can sit through another of Obama's stump speeches.

[Jane]

He never really says anything, does he Sue?

[hit and run]

Sue, I changed the channel.

Watching the Weather Channel is about real change.

Climate Change. It's warming.

Then again, it is spring. Happens every year.

[cathyf]

It's not global, though, H&R. It's hemispherical -- it's fall in the southern hemisphere...

[Sue]

It was short, for a change. I survived it. In fact, I'm thinking of change at the moment. T-shirts with "I survived another Obama speech".

[hit and run]

cathyf:
It's not global, though, H&R. It's hemispherical -- it's fall in the southern hemisphere...

Sooo true. And while I might pretend that I took that into account in that my comment didn't use the word global, well, I didn't.

It's been 8 years since I was in the southern hemisphere and well, they just aren't on my mind.

Huh, good point. I haven't been in the southern hemisphere since Bill Clinton was President.

I Blame Bush!

[hit and run]

Geraghty:

UPDATE: Oddity of the night: In North Carolina, 19,876 (so far) voted "no preference" in the Democratic primary. That's about 1 percent.

Coulda been 19,877.

Shoulda been 19,877.

[kim]

And oooh is it ever cold in the Southern Hemisphere. Antarctic sea ice extent is massive for this time of year, and La Nina is drawing another breath. The sun remains quiescent, though it turned over in its sleep the other day with a 'Tiny Tim' Cycle 24 sunspot which spun itself into non-existence in a short time.

We are cooling bigtime, folks. For how long, even I don't know.
==================================