It Depends On The Meaning Of "Weapons Program"

Matt Yglesias heralds a McClatchy piece telling us that both McCain and Obama are "exaggerating Iran's nuclear program".  From Matt:

Indeed. The IAEA has various complaints about Iranian nuclear activities, and it makes sense for the United States to vigorously pursue those complaints. It's also true that given Iranian history on this issue and the nature of the Iranian regime, it's smart strategy for the United States to seek nuclear concessions from Iran that go beyond what's strictly required by the Non-Proliferation Treaty. But the Intelligence Community has assessed that current levels of scrutiny and pressure caused the Iranians to cease their weapons program back in 2003.

Really?  This was from a recent WaPo article, with my emphasis:

He said that the intelligence community has no reason to change its mid-2007 judgment that Iran had ceased work on designing a nuclear weapon in 2003. "But since the halted activities were part of an unannounced secret program that Iran attempted to hide," he said, "we do not know if it has been restarted."

Designing weapons was easy, he said, compared with producing fissile material with which to arm them, and Iran's uranium enrichment efforts, suspended in 2003 and restarted in 2006, still face "significant technical problems." While it is possible that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium by 2009, "that is very unlikely," Kerr said, although it "probably" could do so "sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame."

"We assess with moderate to high confidence," he said, "that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

In other words, Iran is developing the critical components of a nuclear weapon but is holding off on one of the easiest steps, the actual weapons design, in order to placate the gullible.  Mission Accomplished!

A CLARIFICATION:  McClatchy, in their article on candidate exaggerations, is referring to Hawkish Obama, not the chap who recently reassured us that Iran was a "tiny country" that did not pose a serious threat to us.  Yes, it's hard to keep up.

Comments

[bgates]

Why do you keep linking that guy? Yglesias is Obama without the list of accomplishments and challenges to party orthodoxy.

[Danube of Thought]

"In other words, Iran is developing the critical components of a nuclear weapon but is holding off on one of the easiest steps, the actual weapons design, in order to placate the gullible."

A lot of analysts made precisely this point immediately after the 2007 NIE came out. But no matter; such analysis could not fit nicely into a sound bite, and so the intended damage to Bush Administration policy options was done.

[Cecil Turner]

McConnell said it better in the NIE testimony before Congress back in February:

The main news in the NIE was the confirmation that Iran had a nuclear weapons program, not that it had halted it temporarily, for all we know, in 2003. And other sources say they question that. But -- and some believe they've restarted it. But the NIE offered no confidence in any intelligence on that, besides stating with moderate confidence that it had not restarted last summer. The French Defense minister said publicly that he believes the program has restarted. Now if our government comes to that assessment, then we have set ourselves up to have -- release another NIE, or leak intelligence, because this last one was given a false sense of security. Once we start announcing the NIEs, we may have to change them if the situation changes.

I think that to put it in summary, the NIE as released put the emphasis on the wrong syllable. It should have stated that this was a confirmation. We have information that one aspect -- one aspect, the weaponization programs -- was shut down, but the long pole in the tent, the nuclear enrichment, had not. So that's my humble suggestion, that the next NIE be reviewed to see what is really important in -- for the broader intelligence community efforts. [emphasis added]

I'd note Matt & McClatchy are holding on to the flawed spin put on the document at the outset . . . and it was never meant to be read that way. But it's amazing how the mental filter affects the message; and how hopeful thinking impacts reading skill (at least for Landay, whose suggestion B_o and McCain hadn't "studied the public record" comes perilously close to self-parody).

[capitano]

Don't blame Matt; he's just channeling his inner Pelosi.

You know... the little voice that tells him about the "goodwill of the Iranians."

[kim]

I'd like to hear what Lieberman tells his intimates about Nahncee.
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[Soylent Red]

If you look at it rationally, from the viewpoint of the Iranian government, the NIE is just so counter-intuitive that it boggles my mind anyone could put stock in it.

Suppose you're essentially surrounded by American military might, or nuclear powers. Suppose your energy needs are expanding and refining capacity diminishing to the degree that a nuclear power program becomes a plausible cover story for trying to become a nuclear power. Suppose you have built the US into a threat in order to keep your people focused outward, instead of on the high unemployment and inflation, but can't acquire a conventional armed force to counter the US. Suppose your population no longer supports the government, nor remembers why or how it came to power, and needs a new cause to believe in. Suppose your government is run by people who want a fiery conflagration to erupt in order to trigger Judgment Day, and are prepared to cause that eruption.

These are just a few of the reasons I can come up with off the top of my head why the Iranian government has no interest in dropping the program, and every interest in pulling a fast one. And I haven't really even dug deep.

[kim]

It's important to remember that though Ahmadi-Nejad is crazy, the mullahs are not; they are mostly ambitious in the way of Empire.
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[Neo]

Perhaps both McCain and Obama aren't "exaggerating Iran's nuclear program" given the efforts of Plame & Co. with Merlin.

Did the CIA, back in 2000 (think Clinton), give the Iranians blueprints to build a bomb ? If so, only the gullible would believe that the lack of a weapons design program would signal peaceful intent.

[kim]

Ironic to think that a holocaust could come from the hot little head of Val Plame. Talk about the flap of a butterfly wing causing a tornado half way around the world.
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[kim]

The Important Scalp is from it dawning on the Saudis where the Persians got the Key to the Mediterranean.
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[kim]

Nobody likes double agents, not even the accidental ones.
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