The Surge Started Before The Surge? Well...

McCain actually makes some sense - the "surge", understood as a matter of a new tactical doctrine for waging a counter-insurgency, could well have preceded the troop surge.

Obvious quibble - when folks first talked up "the surge" the word "surge" really did refer specifically to more troops.  However, Kagan's early work certainly emphasized both more troops (including more troops in Anbar, contra Clark) and a change in tactics.

Folks who were deeply immersed in the issues, participants and tactical doctrines will know what McCain meant.  Others, not so much.

Comments

[GMax]

How dare you blind link me to Kevin Drum! I could have lost my sight. I hightailed it out of there pronto tonto, as there is never anything to be gathered from Drum.

[bad]

Wonder how much Kevin had to drink when he wrote that...and was he serious or was that some really great snark?

[mkultra]

McCain is an elitist, because only a select few understand the real meaning of the term "surge."

[Ann]

bad,

Considering he quoted someone as saying "He's smart. He reads. He knows his sh*t." I think Kevin is serious and a drinker....a serious drinker.

Since words matter, I want a reporter to ask Obama what his definition of losing in Iraq means.
(I am tired of hearing "What is your definition of VICTORY? It would be a great question tomorrow, right after his speech at the Victory Campaign Rally in Berlin)

[bad]

I think Kevin is serious and a drinker....a serious drinker.

LOL

[bgates]

Ann - I think VICTORY, in all caps, in German, in Berlin, would be a bit on the nose.

I'm hoping the Germans give him a presentation on the world's cleanest source of energy:
"It would not be difficult, Mein Fuhrer. Nuclear reactors could... I'm sorry, Mr. President... nuclear reactors could provide power almost indefinitely."
(From 'Dr Strangelove, Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Obama.')

[JM Hanes]

Over at The Corner, Kathryn Jean Lopez misread some sort of campaign ad listing, and thought that McCain was going to do a Berlin tour himself tomorrow -- from Berlin, NH through Berlin, PA to Berlin, WI. She posted a correction, but it's almost too bad that the McCain camp didn't think of it themselves. He can't try to undercut Obama in any serious way tomorrow without looking kinda puny. But that sort of down to earth, American as apple pie humor is something I think McCain could manage to carry off, and it might actually make a telling contrast to the pompous, self-glorification on display across the pond.

[Ann]

JMH,

LOL, I have been worried why McCain is coming to Ohio tomorrow, hopefully not announcing his VP choice and then I thought:
Did you know there is a Berlin, Ohio?

[MayBee]

I usually agree with you, JMH. But Obama has killed the pun fun with his unity address in Unity, NH and his Independence Day address in Independence, MO.

[Elliott]

July 24th:

1824: World's first public opinion poll is carried out in Wilmington, Delaware, USA to discover voting intentions in the forthcoming US presidential election.

1847: Brigham Young & his Mormon followers arrive at Salt Lake City, UT.

1959:U.S. Vice President Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev engage in an impromptu debate about the merits and disadvantages of capitalism and communism.

2002: Elliott [redacted].

2008: In Berlin, Germany Senator Obama reveals the verba verborum to the world.

I guess this would be an appropriate day to announce the selection of Romney.

[bgates]

Boy, I like her misread a lot better too.

Almost time for the big speech. My prediction for the dramatic closing line, expressing the highest form of solidarity the Boy Wonder can imagine:
"Ihr seid alle Obama!"

[bgates]

Good morning, Elliott.

[liontooth]

I've heard a couple of reporters mention McCain's 'gaffe' because the surge of troops began in 2007 and the Anbar Awakening was in the fall of 2006.

The facts are that the ground was being laid in 2006 with a new strategy, which included reaching out to Sunnis in Anbar.

The new strategy started first with the troops as a part of it, NOT more troops and then the strategy suddenly changed.

[Elliott]

Heh, bgates. A fine morning to you as well.

[JM Hanes]

Good morning, Jane!

[Pagar]

Good morning to all!

[Jane]

Guten Morgen,

[BumperStickerist]

from, I think, a Jeff G. commenter, possibly at AoS - Headline for a post about Barack's speech

Ich bin ein beginner.

-

[fdcol63]

58% of Europeans want a weakened America.

58% of Europeans prefer Obama.

Coincidence?

[clarice]

Good Morning. I'm vamping Lotte Lenya today--swishing around singing "Oh Moon of B. Obama, now we must say goodbye..."

[liontooth]

Here's a 9 min. video of olbermann in January 2007 about the Surge and babbling about Bush planning on attacking Iran and Syria. From his venomous tirade against Bush and the Iraq war, it's pretty evident now that McCain wasn't taking the popular or easy road when he supported the surge in 2007. Geez, a leader actually doing the right thing instead of the easy, popular, and feel good thing!

[centralcal]

Good morning - I am soon off to work, but I am hoping someone here knows what time today (US time) Barry is supposed to be speaking the Deutch.

[Don]

“There he goes again,” said Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.)[yesterday]. “When he really has a chance to stand up and take a tough stand, he’s not there.”

He's talking about Bush of course.

Btw Anonymous Liberal has this surge before the surge idiocy refuted perfectly.

[BumperStickerist]

-

Senator Obama's remarks, ten seconds after the TeleprompTer stops working

Option 1:

... From that day long ago when Polish soldiers attacked your radio stations, Germany has worked hard to bring peace and stability to this vital region of the world.

Option 2:

... Standing here, in front of you all, I'm struck by how damn good it feels to have all this efficient, German energy at my command ... hell, it feels like I could do anything ... anything at all ... hey, which way is France ...

Option 3:

... As a community organizer working in neighborhoods that were very much like Dresden after the bombing, I drove a Volkswagen, a Rabbit diesel, and one of the kids I was helping pointed out that "Volkswagen" means "People Wagon" in German and that's what this is all about - People

Option 4:

... Germans know what it's like to be divided into two separate zones as a result of war, to live in a zone of safety and a zone of not-safety.

Option 5:

... this statue, this statue is tall ... I mean, like, ummm, tall-tall ...

-

Seriously, for his ascribed brightness and oratorical flair, Obama comes off sounding dolt-like in his non-scripted moments.

He's Bush, without the charm.

[Rick Ballard]

Someday I hope to see some brief mention in the press concerning the training of the Iraqi Security Forces (army and police) which made the application of the COIN strategy possible. I don't mind McCain's chest thumping concerning his support for "more troops for the surge" but the simple fact is that adding 30-40K boots would have been rather meaningless had the Iraqis (with a tremendous amount of American help) not been able to recruit, train and field their own people in sufficient numbers (and with sufficient proficiency) to maintain order.

That takes nothing from Col. McFarland's work in Anbar, laying the necessary groundwork with the tribes there, nor does it tarnish Petraeus halo for his successful implementation of the COIN methods accross the theater. It's a simple note that actually training a disciplined fighting force takes time. It takes even more time in a country with a high illiteracy rate and yet more time again in a country where Soviet "put your best machine guns behind your troops" thinking had dominated the military for fifty years.

Maliki's successful operation in Basra seems to me to be a more important indication of the health of the Iraqi security forces than the Sunni sheiks eviction of the AQ guests whom they had invited into their homes with open arms in '04. The fact that the posting of the eviction notice occurred at approximately the same time that Iraqi security forces reached the point of being able to subjugate Anbar without much help seems to be lost for the moment.

I've yet to find a particular "name" associated with the successful joint training operation but the team charged with the mission deserves at least as much praise as Col. McFarland and Gen. Petraeus. As do the Iraqi security forces, which are now the best in the ME.

To Iran's increasing discomfort.

[sbw]

[OT] Gotta love down home Texas phrasing - Dicky Flatt in the subscription-only WSJ:

It didn't take long to discover that if Phil Gramm tells you a chicken dips snuff, you can look under its wing and find a can.

Heh![/OT]

[Cecil Turner]

Obvious quibble - when folks first talked up "the surge" the word "surge" really did refer specifically to more troops.

Not sure that's entirely accurate. The ISG report mentioned a "surge" (as part of a plus-up primarily for training), but the Administration rejected most features of that plan. Kagan, et al, mentioned a surge as part of an overall COIN strategy which generally paralleled the Administration/Petraeus plan . . . but didn't call the overall strategy a "surge." But in common usage, "The Surge" refers to the Administration strategy shift (which they called "The New Way Forward in Iraq"). In fact, the President's speech was referred to as "The Surge Speech" even before it was delivered, despite the fact that the word "surge" does not apear in it.

Moreover, as I recall, most folks who did talk up the "more troops" part of the surge did so because they opposed it. It certainly isn't the only feature, or even necessarily the centerpiece, of the strategy. For the anti crowd to claim confusion at this point because of a moniker hung on it by fellow opponents seems pretty lame to me, especially when trying to pretend the current state of affairs is despite, rather than because of, the adopted strategy. Petraeus is persuasive on the larger point:

"The success in Anbar province correctly is seen as a political success but it is a political success that is enabled by our forces that are enabled by additional forces sent to Anbar." He added, "It would not have happened as quickly without the surge, and I don't know if we could have capitalized on it without the surge."

The Dems' pretence it would've happened anyway is hard to feature, especially since their position at the time was that it wasn't happening at all.

[clarice]

McCain is meeting the Dalai Lama in Colorado..

[Neo]

I've concluded that John McCain must be reading NRO ..

The tribal leaders in Anbar began to turn against al Qaeda in Iraq last year [2006], largely due to unspeakable atrocities committed by the terrorists against their own hosts. Many analysts and observers have seized upon this fact to argue that the movement in Anbar had nothing to do with the surge, began before the surge did, and would continue even without the surge. This argument is invalid. Anbari tribal leaders did begin to turn against AQI in their areas last year before the surge began, but not before Colonel Sean MacFarland began to apply in Ramadi the tactics and techniques that are the basis of the current strategy in Baghdad. His soldiers and Marines fought tenaciously to establish a foothold in Anbar’s capital, which was then a terrorist stronghold, and thereby demonstrated to the local leaders that they could count on American support as they began to fight their erstwhile allies. Even so, the movement proceeded slowly and fitfully for most of 2006 and, indeed, into 2007. But when Colonel John Charlton’s brigade relieved MacFarland’s in Ramadi and was joined by two additional Marine battalions (part of the surge) elsewhere in Anbar, the “awakening” began to accelerate very rapidly. At the start of 2007 there were only a handful of Anbaris in the local security forces. By the summer there were over 14,000. Before the surge, Ramadi was one of the most dangerous cities in Iraq; now it is possible for Americans to walk through its market with limited security details and without body armor. David Kilcullen describes the relationship between the surge and the movement very well in his Small Wars Journal posting, and I have also addressed the issue in detail in a recent Weekly Standard article . The fact is that neither the surge nor the turn of the tribal leaders would in itself have been enough to turn Anbar around — both were necessary, and will remain so for some time.

[clarice]

Der Spiegel: Obama has cancelled a planned short visit to the Rammstein and Landstuhl US military bases in the southwest German state of Rhineland-Palatinate. The visits were planned for Friday

The latest NBC poll shows that no matter who the person polled is viting for, Obama is seen as the riskier choice..If true, this suggests to me that more gaffes on his part or even one big stupid move and he's toast..

[sbw]

Clarice, the Dalai Lama would be a poor choice for V.P., being unable to succeed to the Presidency.

[clarice]

Buttt--it would be change and transcendence (yeah, even onto levitation).

[kim]

You want a good one read 'The Universe in a Single Atom' by that stone age Tibetan.
======================

[ben]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/07/24/1219142.aspx

Obama loses ground in 4 key states....but up several points in Germany and France.

[MikeS]

In 2001 U.S. forces in Afghanistan successfully recruited locals to fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban, by negotiating with and paying tribal leaders and warlords.

The same technique was employed by the Marines, with little success, in Anbar as early as 2004.
That year the Marines forced al Qaeda out of several larger urban areas in Anbar. The locals didn't look favorably upon the Marines until al Qaeda started returning to those areas and brutalizing people they suspected of helping Coalition Forces.

The precise dates the Awakening was conceived or birthed in Anbar can't really be known. Regardless, the strategy employed by Genl. Petraeus has been successful beyond anyone's expectation.

[Jane]

Der Spiegel: Obama has cancelled a planned short visit to the Rammstein and Landstuhl US military bases in the southwest German state of Rhineland-Palatinate.

He's not really into the troops. They are a bit beneath him, you know.

[clarice]

ben, I found that report rather exciting--Polls so early are bunk, but the point is with all this media ass kissing of O and all this pompous flitting about--the trajectory continues downward.

[centralcal]

No visits to American servicemen and women in Germany? Not a big surprise from our Barry!

They have a popular rock group all lined up for the Germany speech - I saw young people "sprinting" to be as close to the front as possible (yeah, yeah, we all know they only want to see Barry).

Apparently, according to HotAir the French are bored and unenthused about the Messiah paying them a visit. As Captain Ed said, he shoulda gone to visit the troops in that case.

[kim]

Well Jane, the basketball shootaround at the last base was fixed. Say it ain't so, Bo.
====================================

[Jane]

How do you fix a three pointer? Wait til he gets one in?

[Elliott]

Mark Halperin links to a slideshow from a German paper. Photo 7 is for Clarice, and photo 48 is for anyone who doubted my sources.

The unique and historic nature of today's address by Sen. Obama, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and President Presumptive calls for, nay, demands live blogging. And live blogging there shall be.

[Neo]

Obama: Israel Shouldn't Talk to Hamas

(IsraelNN.com) Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said during a visit to Sderot Wednesday that "Israel should not talk to Hamas as long as it poses a threat to its citizens."

"If someone was to fire at my house, where my two daughters sleep, I would do everything within my power to stop him and I expect Israel to do the same," he said.

Is that with or without preconditions ?

[clarice]

Thank you, Elliott!!!

[Danube of Thought]

Good God, Clarice--until I read your post I thought "The Alabama Song" was a Doors original. (At least I knew "Mack the Knife" was really "Moritat.")

[Barney Frank]

"If someone was to fire at my house, where my two daughters sleep, I would do everything within my power to stop him and I expect Israel to do the same," he said.

Then shouldn't he have been urging W to invade Iraq just on the Sadaam/papa Bush assasination angle alone?

[clarice]

Well, I didn't know that Stevie whoever was a woman so we're both a bit clueless about somethings,DOT.

[MayBee]

I want someone to photoshop those pictures of Obama and Angela to be Obama and Ahmadenijad, Castro, and Chavez.

He said he'd meet with them, that meeting with the US president isn't a prize, that the US doesn't hold itself above other countries.

I just want someone to appreciate the propaganda opportunity this man wants to give those tyrants.

[Jane]

I bet Obama's decision to not visit the troops, preferring to shopping in Berlin is not going to sit well with Americans. Hell it breaks my heart.

[BobS]

Which of the networks are televising Elvis from Berlin?

[clarice]

Guess he thought he'd get better photo ops amongst shoppers in Berlin than among soldiers from his own country,Jane.