The Times Defies Atrios

John Broder of the Times writes on Obama and abortion.  Here is his Atrios/Begala defying lead:

WASHINGTON — Sixteen years ago, the Democratic Party refused to allow Robert P. Casey Sr., then the governor of Pennsylvania, to speak at its national convention because his anti-abortion views, stemming from his Roman Catholic faith, clashed with the party’s platform and powerful constituencies. Many Catholics, once a reliable Democratic voting bloc, never forgot what they considered a slight.

Sure, that seems like the Conventional Wisdom but Atrios went animal on this topic in 2005 (OK, he went "Wanker") and it re-surfaced in 2008.  I back the CW.

The article has an amusing headline:

Obama’s View on Abortion May Divide Catholics

His view?  His view seems to be that of a typical lefty abortion-rights extremist.  I'm not sure that "divides" Catholics; "defies" might be better.

Now, Obama may have appeal to Catholics on other grounds, such as his environmental posturing or oppositon to US involvement in Iraq (in his words, "ending" the war), or simply a typical Dem working class appeal.  So it may be fair to say that Catholics are divided on Obama's candidacy.  But the article does not (at a quick read) support the notion that Obama's view on abortion has in itself created controversy and sparked debate within the Cathiolic community.

MORE:  Hot Air on Obama and Catholics; Brendan Nyhan recycles the Begala/Carville/Atrios spin, with the part of Atrios played by Media Matters.

Comments

[GMax]

Wanker? LOL

Have you been coferring with PUK on appropriate names for lefties?

Having had three children play competitive soccer at a pretty high level, this is not a word that is used in polite company. Of course soccer hooligans are anything but polite and it is screamed at your opponent at the top of your lungs if necessary, to make sure he understands your contempt.

For Atrios I share your sentiments Mr. M.

[pagar]

Obama has working class appeal? I guess if one thinks that not having to do a useful day of work ever is appealing, Obama would certainly qualify.

[kim]

The polling shows that Catholics are the most important swing group this year. Expect Catholicism to suffer massive misunderstanding for the next three months.
=====================================

[GMax]

Well now I shudder to point to Zogby on anything, but his most recent national poll had McCain winning Catholics by 15%. Given Hispanics are overwhelming Catholics and still a net plus for Obama, ( I think ) that would mean white Catholics, are running from Obama in great numbers. Think Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and to a lesser extent Michigan for the impact here.

[Jane]

If you hven't seen the latest "Praising McCain" Youtube, it's worth watching.

LUN

[anduril]

Everyone who's interested has probably already read up on the anthrax case, so I won't post any more links. For those who want to criticize the FBI I offer this link to an outstanding Steve Sailer discussion: The Anthrax Lag.

[bio mom]

Once Catholics learn about Obama's shameful behavior in the Illionis State Senate, blocking the Born Alive Act, they will desert him in droves, no matter what their party.

[centralcal]

Jane: I love that the video closes with Hillary's contrast of McCain and Obama!

Wonderful.

[anduril]

The polling results on Catholics must have Dems quaking in their boots, or whatever footwear Dems favor. By most measures this SHOULD be a Dem year among Catholics, so the polling results must be pretty directly attributable to the Dem candidate: The One. Can attempts to tie McCain to the likes of Hagee overcome this type of gut revulsion? I tend to doubt it--demonstrating that the other guy is a bit of a goof, too, doesn't overcome that type of gut revulsion. The remedy is to overcome the gut revulsion, and right now that's a tough one. Could Dem horror at such polling results lead to Dem second thoughts at the convention? We'll see.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Something interesting may happen in Denver:

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has 1766.5 pledged delegates, 352 short of the 2118 needed to secure the nomination. He also has 463 super delegates, which puts him over the top -- if they hold. If a combination of Clinton campaigning and nervousness can cause a hundred and twenty or so super delegates to sit out the first ballot, Obama does not get the nomination on the first ballot and perhaps not at all. After that first vote a great many pledged delegates and all the super delegates are free to vote as they choose.

How much pressure could there then be for the forty-seven year old Obama to take the VP spot under Hillary, with the understanding that he would as such be the next Democrat in line for the top nomination whether Hillary won or lost, served one, two or no terms?

It looks like Obama's belief in his inevitability may have led him into a blunder, making it easier for Hillary supporters to prevent a nomination on the first ballot. After that point, anything goes, as all super delegates and many pledged delegates are free to vote their preferences.

After accepting the party's decision last June to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida but with half votes, only days ago Obama said he wanted the delegates to have full votes

Obviously, he said this believing he has won the nomination and that pandering to voters in critical general election states is of more importance.

If the party goes along with Obama's request, it reduces the number of super delegates who would need to sit out the first ballot for Obama to be denied the nomination, opening the way for Clinton! Ouch!

[hrtshpdbox]

.."only days ago Obama said he wanted the delegates to have full votes."

Yes, when I heard that I wondered if that might not be a particularly unwise thing for Obama to do.

[narciso]

Not to hijack the thread; but did the FBI explain how Ivins got hold of the Dugway, Utah strains, and how he got to NJ; to mail
the envelopes to NY, Fl. et al. If it is Ivins, which it seems more likely, its interestingly how he never seemed to pop on the radar of the people supposedly in the know: Nass, Rosenberg, Kristof, Rozen, et al. It must be those subliminal messages that only they can hear; like the 'wolf whistle' of Rhodesia that set them like wolves on to Hatfill.

In other news, the ruling coalition in Pakistan has decided that the most important
issue of the day; is to (wait for it)
. . .impeach Musharaf. Well they're only slightly more crazy than their brethren over here, but you would think with sky high fuel prices, car bombings every other week, they would have some more important
things to worry about. Silly me, they can't go after AQ, because that would just anger them. They can't go after the ISI, because they will kill you, dead. So Musharaff seems a suitable subject to be used as a scapegoat.

[GMax]

I am pretty sure Obama removed delegates in both states and replaced them with his supporters, thus his change of heart. This guy grew up in Chicago, when you smile you not only insert the knife but then you twist it hard, and the smile never stops. If he is for new delegates its cuz an unfortunate and tragic accident has befallen an opponent and there is just little he can do but soldier on.

[Rick Ballard]

From the Broder piece:

Archbishop Chaput, who has stopped short of telling his flock how to vote, has called abortion a “foundational issue.” He has said that a vote for a candidate who supports abortion rights or stem-cell research, like Mr. Obama or Senator John Kerry in 2004, was a sin that must be confessed before receiving communion. Mr. Obama’s Republican rival, Senator John McCain, an opponent of abortion rights, met last week in Denver with Archbishop Chaput.

Chaput is no shrinking violet and it would be unsurprising to see a strong pastoral message prior to the convention. Bill Donahue's acceptance of Hagee's apology moves that issue to the edge of the table, if it doesn't push it off on the floor. Donahue went right for the throat on Obama's support for infanticide in the same clip. He doesn't appear to be backing off.

The One is going to have to consult with Himself and try to find a new exit. Given His absolute and appalling ignorance of basic Christian theological tenets (as revealed in the interview which Bad linked) one might suppose that The One will be working from the Gospel of Obama as revealed by Himself to Himself (and subject to His revision, as expedience may demand).

[bio mom]

I am a practicing Catholic and there is no compromising on the abortion question in Catholic theology. None. No other issue rises to the level of abortion as an issue. Not war, death penalty, poverty, or anything else. Not to a true Catholic.

[bad]

And lets not forget the PUMA factor in making nice with the pro-life crowd.

[Neo]

Sen. Robert Casey Jr. "souled" out for a Senate seat.

[Jane]

Kwamie Kilpatrick goes to jail for a probation violation. (see Drudge)

Can Mrs Waxman be far behind?

[bad]

Althouse has video of convention discussion between Hillary and some supporters. Listen for sexual references. (unintended, of course)

LUN

also linked at instapundit

[Rick Ballard]

Bio Mom,

If you had the misfortune to have been raised and taught within a diocese where the focus was on some sort of liberation theology, and did not pursue the teaching beyond what someone (like, Fr. Pfleger, say) presented, you might have a different perspective. I don't disagree with your conclusion, I'm just pointing out that there are many Catholics who believe themselves to be true to their faith who have received an incomplete (and sometimes false) education regarding the application of core tenets.

[centralcal]

Jane: I think you mean Mrs. Conyers?

[Porchlight]

Something that puzzles me. Obama has said that the first thing he'll do as President is to sign the Freedom of Choice Act. Doesn't Congress first have to decide whether or not it's going to arrive on his desk? So far it hasn't made it out of the Judiciary Committee. I guess Obama won't be held any of that "checks and balances" stuff that regular Presidents have to abide by. He'll just sign legislation that appeal to him.

[bad]

Obama wants to be president because it no longer is what it once was. And it wasn't a compliment. Is he longing for a return to slavery, Jim Crow, back alley abortions, or what? Maybe he just wants to go back before the tire gauge...

Hot air has the video.

LUN

[pagar]

Porchlight, I think they're called decrees.

[Elliott]

Why is this clown more complimentary of Germany than the nation he wants to run?

[Porchlight]

Sorry, my link was bad - here's another with more context, from the National Catholic Register.

There's actually not much news reporting of his statement on the Freedom of Choice Act (almost all the Google hits are on advocacy sites, for and against). Unsurprising.

[bad]

Hoe tough is it to memorize a little blurb about why he wants to be president. His answer makes it appear he hadn't given any thought to the question previously.

[centralcal]

Why ANYONE, Catholic or Atheist or Obamaist, would want to listen to a speech given by the mentally deficient Casey, who talkth with a lithp is beyond me.

[cathyf]

Ah, yes, I guess we are marking the coming 16th anniversary of when my husband, the Pennsylvania Catholic, departed the Democratic Party. As he said at the time, a party with no room for Bob Casey has no room for him. And we're pretty liberal Catholics...

[Rick Ballard]

Porchlight,

Thanks for the link - which led to Fr. Neuhas' response to Kmiec. Unsurprisingly well reasoned and remarkably clear. As always.

[JM Hanes]

I'm sure I could look it up somewhere, but how did John Kerry do with the Catholic vote? I can't recall who it was who set off a brief brouhaha by saying that Kerry was not fit for communion, but I don't think it actually shifted a lot of votes, did it? There are plenty of Democratic Catholic office holders and voters, so I certainly think it's fair to say that Catholics are divided on this issue as a practical, not doctrinal, matter.

[Jane]

I think you mean Mrs. Conyers?

That's right! Mrs Waxman is in the future.

Thanks!

[Pofarmer]

Heard a clip of Michelle Obama saying that Barack Hussein couldn't be an elitist because he hadn't had the kind of advantages that make one an elitist, growing up with a single Mom and all.

O.K.

Private schools in Hawaii.
Columbia University
Harvard
Fellowships
Illinios State Senator
U.S. Senator.

Now, how in the world could he be an elitist?

[RichatUF]

JM Hanes-

I'm sure I could look it up somewhere, but how did John Kerry do with the Catholic vote?

When the Wa-Po was weather-ballooning Gov. Kaine for the Obama campaign a week or so ago, I looked it up-Bush 52%-Kerry 47%, but didn't look at the state splits. I'm not sure how a bit of genuflecting with giving Sen. Casey a speech at the convention will help, when he couldn't close the gap with PA Catholics in the primary.

I'll have to drop a link for the transcript I found of Obama's speech in the Illinois Senate stating his opposition for the Born Alive Protection Act-it was an eye-opener.

[RichatUF]

JM Hanes-

I'm sure I could look it up somewhere, but how did John Kerry do with the Catholic vote?

When the Wa-Po was weather-ballooning Gov. Kaine for the Obama campaign a week or so ago, I looked it up-Bush 52%-Kerry 47%, but didn't look at the state splits. I'm not sure how a bit of genuflecting with giving Sen. Casey a speech at the convention will help, when he couldn't close the gap with PA Catholics in the primary.

I'll have to drop a link for the transcript I found of Obama's speech in the Illinois Senate stating his opposition for the Born Alive Protection Act-it was an eye-opener.

[RichatUF]

And going ot for a bit: saw this via drudge

Jobless claims rose 7k to 455k-and the end is neigh. This is a question for Rick: could the Ford & GM buy-outs be distorting the unemployment numbers? Also Chrysler has idled some plants and wonder if that might also be distorting the numbers some as that would eventually feed through the auto supply chain?

graf (also why might the numbers have risen, unemployment offices are looking for unemployed people)-

On the layoffs front, the new filings for unemployment benefits were distorted somewhat by the outreach program to notify people that they could qualify for additional benefits being made available under a new law.

When people went to state claims offices to apply for these extended benefits, state officials discovered that some were eligible for—but haven't filed for—their initial unemployment benefits, the department analyst said. That accounted for some of last week's increase, he said.

[RichatUF]

And going ot for a bit: saw this via drudge

Jobless claims rose 7k to 455k-and the end is neigh. This is a question for Rick: could the Ford & GM buy-outs be distorting the unemployment numbers? Also Chrysler has idled some plants and wonder if that might also be distorting the numbers some as that would eventually feed through the auto supply chain?

graf (also why might the numbers have risen, unemployment offices are looking for unemployed people)-

On the layoffs front, the new filings for unemployment benefits were distorted somewhat by the outreach program to notify people that they could qualify for additional benefits being made available under a new law.

When people went to state claims offices to apply for these extended benefits, state officials discovered that some were eligible for—but haven't filed for—their initial unemployment benefits, the department analyst said. That accounted for some of last week's increase, he said.

[bad]

Abortion, PUMAs, superdelegates...The DNC already has its hands full and along comes this problem for them:

But an increasingly nasty lawsuit against the DNC, brought by Donald Hitchcock after he was fired as the party’s gay and lesbian outreach director, has exposed the rift between gays and one of the party’s most important constituencies, African Americans.

D'ya suppose Obama will take sides?

LUN

[glenda waggoner]

Mrs. Waxman???

Is there really such a thing? lol, Jane!

[narciso]

An interesting piece by Goldsmith,
the'sensible'conservative in the OLC; who writes in the New Republic, about Lichtblau's "Bush Justice Department" or what ever the title is:href
Apparently, he takes Lichtblau to task for his disclosures of the TSP and the SWIFT financial tracking program; he even invokes Sect. 798 of the Federal Code, that Mr. Schoenfeld, made a point, of citing as a possible indictment against the Times. He believes that just because the Times is guilty shouldn't be prosecuted; and of course Bush secrecy, yadda, yadda. But is interesting how a more nuanced picture arises it. Benjamin Wittes, another critic
of Gitmo, in the New Republic and the Atlantic; has come around to the idea of a "National Security Court" in between the tribunal system, and the conventional civilian or even military courtmartial. Phillip Bobbit, a LBJ relation as it turns,
has made similar arguments, even accepting that the "War on Terror" is the right meme. But here's the thing, we've never tried unlawful combatants by court system; Quirin
was in fact perfunctory, and for obvious reasons, we don' try them by court martial.
The only system that really applies in this case, is military tribunal; maybe more of Milligan standards than Quirin; yet this is
the system; they've sandbagged for nearly the last 7 years!

[JM Hanes]

Porchlight:

"I guess Obama won't be held any of that "checks and balances" stuff that regular Presidents have to abide by."

Ditto on taxing windfall profits and bribing voters with rebates. I call it the Abracadabra Plan. Of course, all presidential candidates ignore cold hard constitutional realities, but given the high profile Democratic obsession with Unitary Executive Theory, their ostensible nominee does seem to have an ironically expansive view of presidential powers.

Ultimately, however, I think Instapundit nailed the underlying dynamic. Revisiting Early-Obama assertions on not running for office in 2008, he commented:

I don't think Obama was lying in 2005. I've always thought that he didn't expect his campaign to take off the way it did; I think he figured he'd run a good attention-getting primary campaign, drop out after South Carolina, and set himself up for the future. I think that the coalescence of the anti-Hillary Democrats around his campaign surprised him as much as it did Hillary, and that he's been running a brilliant piece of improvisation ever since.

Someone similarly suggested that having made an off-the-cuff debate commitment to negotiating unconditionally with Ahmadinejad, Obama was then compelled to double down on what was essentially accidental foreign policy.

My own theory posits Obama as a beauty pageant finalist responding to some inevitable variation on the If-I-Were-President-I-Would question.

[Jane]

M.Simon,

I just read your piece about Carol McCain. I remember distinctly when this issue came up in 2000. Carol was approached and said nothing but nice things about her ex-husband, in such an open-armed way that the whole issue immediately went away. Hopefully that can be replicated this year.

[Sue]

I watched Andrea Mitchell again today. A small segment only, so I don't know how she acted in earlier or later segments. The economic expert she had on said Obama's windfall profit tax against oil companies had been tried in the 70s and would not pay for itself. Anyone who believed that it would was flat wrong. Andrea stuttered her way to the end. She must not have had the nerve to challenge his expertise on the subject.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

There's definitely an employment "sector squeeze" going on with autos. It includes Toyota as well as GM and Ford so I can't say that the accelerated buyouts are key. I have a relative who works the dealer auctions (credit, which is lease, and large fleet) for one of the majors and he reports an inventory hangover for SUVs that is truly incredible. He's a forty year man and has never seen anything remotely like it.

I follow SS revenue data (particularly HI) more than BLS numbers. The Q2 YOY number for the FICA portion was +4.9% vs +3.5 for Q1. The total comparison (including SECA) showed a Q2 YOY of +5.3% vs +3.5% in Q1. All that is consonant with Q4 '07 being the 'low' (actually flat) spot.

The automotive sector is definitely a drag at the moment and may remain so until at least next spring. It's not as if retooling to build more tiny death traps can occur overnight.

[jimmyk]

Once Catholics learn about Obama's shameful behavior in the Illionis State Senate, blocking the Born Alive Act, they will desert him in droves, no matter what their party.

And not just Catholics, one would hope. Humans?

[centralcal]

Excellent point, jimmyk!

[Jane]

I'm under tornado watch. I can honestly say that's a first for me. Supposedly it's been sighted Northwest of here, traveling away from me. If it gets nearer do I go into the basement of the building into the bathroom?

(sheesh you would think I would know that)

[SWarren]

From this 2005 article, a good analysis of the Democrat's declining Catholic vote:

At the same time, the alienation of many Catholic voters from Democratic ranks is one of the McGovern Commission's two most politically consequential legacies. Earlier this year, William McGurn, now President George W. Bush's top speechwriter, called this "Bob Casey's Revenge." Among white Catholics in the 2004 presidential race, a crucial swing bloc in the Midwest and Rust Belt, John Kerry lost 43 to 56 percent. As party strategists Stanley Greenberg, James Carville, and Bob Shrum concluded in a memo last March, "the drop in Catholic support is a big part of the 2004 election story."
.....
Read the whole article:

Goodbye, Catholics: how one man reshaped the Democratic Party

LUN

[MayBee]

Jane- basement or interior bathroom on a warning. On a watch, just take a moment to put some lipstick on in case you do end up getting blown out onto the street. You don't want to look unattractive when Anderson Cooper uses your picture to demonstrate how Bush's global warming is causing tornadoes that terrorize Massachusetts.

[Porchlight]

JMH, I agree that Obama never thought he'd get this far this year. In a sense we're lucky he did, as he may be less formidable now as a rookie than he would be as a more seasoned Senator down the road.

The problem is that the tyro might actually win.