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October 26, 2008

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Pigilito

Obama gets 52.3% of the popular vote. The Dow closes at 8250. What do I win?

Lori

Obama 47% of vote, Dow closes at 9600.

Rick Ballard

Chicago trash at 48.2, Dow 9350.

Jabba The Tutt

John Effin' Kerry got 48.3% of the national vote.

I say the Obamessiah, Lord High Barack Obama, gets 47.3% of the national vote.

The Dow will be up as it becomes clearer, that Obama is losing. I say 8700.

Jimmy Da Greek

Obama 46.35% (McCain 51.4%, 3rd party 2.25%)
Dow 7503 (close on 11/4)

Bonus Answer: Dow 8754 (close on 11/5)

clarice

TM:"For folks who want to overthink this: the VIX is at 80% for annual volatility; for a one week period, that implies a 22% range for the Dow - yike. (22 = 2* 80/Sqr Root 52 - roughly)."

Quit talking babytalk, Tom!

Charlie (Colorado)

McCain 51 Obama 49 and I'll predict the Dow after I see tomorrow's numbers.

I will predict tomorrow's Dow has a smaller range between low and high than we've seen in the last week.

bgates

Obama 748% of the registered vote, mostly due to 500M votes in Cook County; loses in Electoral College by 160.

Dow 8000.

Patrick R. Sullivan

We can call it the misery index!

Barney's Evil Twin

B.O. 45.6
Dow 7820 (9100 Nov 5)

Charlie (Colorado)

Hmmm. If we take yesterday's IBD, and use the assumption that undecideds are mostly going to McCain (the Tammy Bruce model) that would be like 53/46 McCain.

Charlie (Colorado)

Okay, serious question: what will happen in the next weeks if McCain wins?

clarice

Jeff Anderson's take:
http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/754avgmg.asp

Now, I want yo guys to pay attention to this stuff for me, because I'll be live blogging election night from NPR hq for AT..And I need you to keep tabs for me.

clarice

REALLY,Chaco? Really?

Rove sounds pessimistic and I think he's brilliant, but he was very wrong about 2006.

Maybe we can get Biden out and talking around more.

clarice

BTW, looking at the tape of Biden's interview in Orlando, I figure one more eye tuck and he has a shot at a second career as a star in Charlie Chan re-runs.

hrtshpdbox

Obama 47.9%
Dow 9475

Patrick Tyson

Here's nothing...

Two-party vote: Obama/Biden 53.6% - McCain/Palin 46.4%

11/4 DJIA close: 8,500

Jane Plumber

what will happen in the next weeks if McCain wins?

Race riots.

Or did you mean the Dow?

clarice

IBD/TIPP: O-46.5%, M-43.3%, Undec-10.1%

(McCain up 0.3% since yesterday)

Obama's lead over McCain has dropped to 5 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 44 percent among likely U.S. voters. Obama's lead has dropped over the last three days after hitting a high of 12 points on Thursday.

"Things are trending back for McCain. His numbers are rising and Obama's are dropping on a daily basis. There seems to be a direct correlation between this and McCain talking about the economy," pollster John Zogby said.


Charlie (Colorado)

Assuming you're asking about the Tammy model, well, yeah, but that was in the hypothetical; I don't really think all the undecideds will vote for McCain.

On the other hand, look at the new Zogby:

UTICA, New York – Republican John McCain continues to gain on Democrat Barack Obama, reducing Obama’s lead to 5.3 points with just over a week to go before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows.

The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday’s report.

First of all, that's a gain on McCain's part that is well outside the MoE. This is probably somewhat significant.

(I don't have the time to read their methodology report; I'm curious if their sample has changed. Zogby has a history of showing the D side strong until very close to the election, then converging with the real results. A cynic might suspect that they try to help the D's as long as they can, then pull the model back to reality at the last minute so they can hype their accuracy for next election.)

Second, their data shows about equal numbers of people moving to McCain, and of people moving out of undecided and out of Obama together. (Around 2 percent of the total for each, adding up to 4 plus for McCain.)

It seems unlikely a whole lot of people went directly from Obama to McCain (although certainly not impossible) so it would seem least hypothesis is that almost half the undecideds moved to McCain, and about 1 in 20 Obama moved to the undecided camp. That would fit the Tammy model pretty well.

Charlie (Colorado)

Here's a link to the IBD.

Sure enough, the IBD poll shows undecideds moving to mcCain 2 to 1. If that continued, we'd get 51/49 McCain.

And, yeah, Jane, "race riots" is what I'm thinking. Along with a lot of state lawsuits.

Barney's Evil Twin

Okay, serious question: what will happen in the next weeks if McCain wins?
______________________________

The words "National Guard" will appear in many headlines.

Alan Gunn

Obama 54%, Dow 6800

I hope I'm way off on both.

clarice

That makes two of us , Alan!

Antimedia

Obama 46.7, Dow 7360.

clarice

Are you suggesting, antimedia, that under any circumstance the Dow will go down? If Obama wins because his economic and foreign policies would be ruinous; and if he loses because of riots and turmoil?

M. Simon

Obama 46.2
DOW close on 5 Nov: 9200

Dow close on 4 Nov: 8600

Mustang0302

BHO 47.5, Dow 7700 (9000+ on 5Nov08).

Mustang0302

Oh yeah, I meant to add: Riots either way.

M. Simon

Okay, serious question: what will happen in the next weeks if McCain wins?
______________________________

The words "National Guard" will appear in many headlines.

LOL. I predict 27 dead in the ensuing riots. And 15 cities with major fire problems and 22 with uncontained (over 1 day) riots.

Left Liberalism as a major force in politics will burn with the fires. The question will be turned from: "what have we done to make hem angry" to "what have they done to make us angry".

rls

Obama 42% - Dow 9755. McCain wins 40 states.

bio mom

Get out the message that Obama will threaten to take over your 401Ks (it is being discussed by the Dems in congress and by liberals at the New School). He would then lose in a landslide. Whether he wins or not, I predict riots in a lot of cities (ala sports championships) and the National Guard in several.

Huggy

Obama 46% - Dow 5000

kaz

BHO - 49.3%

Dow - 8700 Nobody's making any sudden moves till it's over. Of course, with a week of poll data to stampede the sheep, we could be starting election day at a much lower point than the current one.

Dow the day after - 9650

Over/Under on riots and National Guard call-ups - 20

kim jane il

Obama 53
DOW 8379

Geezer

McPalin 50.2
Obammy 48.
DJIA 9210

kim jane il

Albuquerque, Saturday:

A fire marshall puts the crowd at at least 45,000, many times that at McCain's roughly 1,000-person event a couple of miles away this morning.

link

clarice

Which band played there, kmji? I forgot..Some big name. Offer a free concert and they will come, won't they?
What are you aiming for an MTV govt? BTW to read that Redstone's marriage and business are falling apart suggests to be theree is some justice in this world.

Charlie (Colorado)

Mustang, I think that's "riots if McCain wins, over-exuberant supporters if Obama wins."

kim jane il

Which band played there, kmji? I forgot..Some big name. Offer a free concert and they will come, won't they?
What are you aiming for an MTV govt?

Maybe you have a link to back that up, clarice?

clarice

Well, I guess at this one it was comic George Lopez and his sidekick funnyman Richardson.

At many others where there were large crowds, there were popular musical artists never mentioned by the media who were clearly the draw.

Charlie (Colorado)

George Lopez would be a pretty big draw in ABQ.

Mustang0302

Oh, I'm sure all the baseball fans turned out for Richardson, too.

RichatUF

clarice

It was also at the UNM campus. University link, the NMSO performed as well.

Saturday night, OSA has a pretty effective drinking reduction program at the campus, big political rally, NMSO, a pretty good comic-45k is a pretty good sized crowd.

kim jane il

Well, clarice, having seen that your prior post on Obama's 'big name' concert taken from a righty blogger was a total lie, I'd appreciate sources with more credibility than the freerepublic.

See-that's the thing about credibility.

Isn't that right, clarice? ;-)

glenda waggoner

Here goes..
McCain 52.2
Obama 46.3
Others 1.5

Dow
Nov. 4 7770
Nov. 5 8880
Nov.11 10300 (after recounts in racist PA
ordered by Murtha)

kim jane il

Here's what clarice was referring to:

"Well,,I though you guys might like the "rest of the story" as Paul Harvey says. Obama's (Peace be upon him)event was held in the center of the University village. And the press keeps forgetting one little detail, it was a free concert featuring Carlos Santana. For my freeper friends across the country, he's still a massive celebrity out here with the Latino community. The crowd thinned *quickly* after the show. They werent waiting around for "the one"."

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115708/posts

Except now, the post has been removed, and all you see is this:

This thread has been pulled.
Pulled on 10/26/2008 1:47:55 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:

Poster’s request.

Okay

Post no retraction, admit no error, just flush it down the memory hole.

Mustang0302

Post no retraction, admit no error, just flush it down the memory hole.

How's your son, kji?

kim jane il

So the original post stands:

Obama 45000
McCain 1000

Anyone want to revise the estimates they made earlier in the thread?

hrtshpdbox

Another good item for a guessing game; when does a national poll next show McCain with the lead? I'll guess Thursday.

Mustang0302

Anyone want to revise the estimates they made earlier in the thread?

Based on "cool" turnout for a weekend rally in a NM college town?

No.

Wonder what the turnout'd be at Camp Pendleton or Camp Lejeune?

Not to mention San Diego or Parris Island?

What, kji? Never heard of any of those places?

Yeah, we get to vote, too.

Charlie (Colorado)

Anyone want to revise the estimates they made earlier in the thread?

No, why?

Would you like to revise yours, given that the polls seem to be uniformly moving to McCain today? On a weekend, which would normally be good for Democrats?

PeterUK

"Not to mention San Diego or Parris Island?"

Ask about Fire Island.

Lori

Charlie,
I'll stick with Obama 47% because of all the cheating. Without cheating 42%.

Lori

Also, I pay no attention to what college kids say they are going to do. Most of them will say they are voting or attend a rally for Obama to be cool. The ones who have half a brain will vote for McCain in the privacy of the voting booth. If my college student son were voting for Obama I wouldn't pay his tuition. I'm serious.

Mustang0302

The Chinless Opthalmologist is not amused.

How long 'til Cleo updates her nic in solidarity?

Just think, her son could be flying one of those Whiskey Cobras, or maybe turning wrenches on one.

I'm sure she's so disappointed.

Charlie (Colorado)

Also, I pay no attention to what college kids say they are going to do. Most of them will say they are voting or attend a rally for Obama to be cool. The ones who have half a brain will vote for McCain in the privacy of the voting booth. If my college student son were voting for Obama I wouldn't pay his tuition. I'm serious.

Lori, there are all sorts of reasons to be suspicious of the sample, but for what it's worth I called a hundred plus CU students yesterday, and the ones I reached were for mcCain/Palin.

Colorado has a very strong libertarian streak.

kim jane il

The ones who have half a brain will vote for McCain in the privacy of the voting booth.

I suspected as much.

Lori

Charlie,
They will tell the truth over the phone if none of their friends are listening. I believe the student's who say they are voting for McCain, just not everyone who says they are voting for Obama.

Charlie (Colorado)

I didn't actually talk to anone who said they'd vote for Obama.

Again, there's a selection bias, so make of it what you will.

RichatUF

Also check the last few days of the UNM student papers they might have concert and performance information . I remember at Obama's Portland rally the Decemberists didn't use their band name on the advertisments for legal reasons and it was well concealed that they played.

Lori

I also think that this generation of college students is much more influenced by their parents than previous generations. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that their voting more in line with their parents' voting than in previous generations.

kim jane il

I also think that this generation of college students is much more influenced by their parents

Especially the ones whose parents engage in voter fraud by buying their vote.

Mustang0302

kji, imagine your son's vote getting "tossed out."

Shameful. Makes you wish you'd have "sent" him off to the UNM, rather than the USMC, huh?

Just think, he could be basking in the enlightened glow of a chill BHO rally, having his vote counted (if not "multiplied" many times!), instead of suffering under the brainwashing and oppression of the needlessly brutal USMC. Not to mention having his vote "tossed" by dems.

"Damn that GWB draft! Let our "sons" vote!"

/sarc

P.S. - I rate the Army/Navy/Air Force/Marine Corps Times publications as less trustworthy than supermarket checkout stand rags...barely worth personal hygiene use. Any of their "polls", especially.

MarkO

I thought you said there would be no math. Or, was that meth?

clarice

Big rallies always PROVE who the winner will be:



Democrats Draw Crowd of 100,000
In Garment District, Mondale Dresses Down 'Radical Preachers'
The Washington Post (1974-Current file) - Washington, D.C.
Author: By Rick Atkinson and Milton Coleman Washington Post Staff Writer
Date: Nov 2, 1984
Start Page: A3
Pages: 1
Text Word Count: 715

NEW YORK, Nov. 1 -- In their last joint appearance before Election Day, Walter F. Mondale and Geraldine A. Ferraro drew an estimated 100,000 supporters to a Garment District rally where the Democratic candidates denounced the "radical preachers" and "extremists who control the Republican Party."


***

The pollsters are always right--check out their polls on whether O or Hillary would win the primary elections..righter than rain they were(n't).

Extraneus

I posted this on the other thread, but I've been harping on this "Obama Effect" for a while, so...


I have a close relation -- very sympathetic to what most of us write about here, but not as comfortable hanging up on someone as I am (Southern manners, deeply ingrained) -- who lied to a major pollster the other day, professing support for Obama, and was happy to tell me about it.

I've previously predicted the effect at 6%, so I'll stick with that. RCP presently says 50.4 to 42.8, Obama. Some polls will adjust to remove their previous bias in order to maintain credibility, so let's put that at another 2% (although it's probably bigger than that). Therefore, I say this 7.8% difference goes to at least -0.2% for Obama.

Worst-case, McCain 50.1, Obama 49.9, with a sizeable electoral lead for McCain.

Dow? Whenever the big money realizes that it's not Obama, it swings up big-time. That may happen before or after the election, so I hate to predict that. I guess I'll guess 9000.

kim jane il

The pollsters are always right--check out their polls on whether O or Hillary would win the primary elections..righter than rain they were(n't).

So you're thinking there'll be a reverse Bradley effect giving Obama a landslide this November?

Mustang0302

See any "pollsters" predicting a Bradley effect either way, kji?

No?

Worried?

Chris

Don't see Barack breaking 50% but that certainly doesn't mean he can't/won't win. I'd put him at 49%. Could be a wiining or losing number for him. All comes down to PA I'm thinking. Dow? 8950 close on the 4th sounds reasonable.

Syl

No such thing as the Bradley effect. Absentee ballots won that election. The exit polling that stated Bradley had won was actually correct.

I saw David Moore who used to be VP? Of Gallup and who has written a couple of books on what pollsters do wrong on BookTV last night.

Show was from a month ago (9/16). He said this year the refusal/hangup/no response rate is over 80%!! How can a pollster get a representative sample if the rate is that high?

Even though I've been skeptical of polls in the past, this is the first election where I almost totally discount them. The pollsters are merely guessing at their turnout model and I think many aren't seeing the Palin effect.

Moore's main criticism of polling (at least in his talk I saw) is that representation of the undecided part of the electorate is totally wrong and misleading.

Whatever.

I'm making no predictions. I think as of this moment the election is either's to win.

Extraneus

Ooops, RCP difference is 7.6%, not 7.8%, so since we're predicting to the nths here, I'm revising to a 0.4% difference: McCain 50.2%, Obama 49.8%. (Barr, less than 0.1%.)

clarice

Oh Dear, Politico's Ben Smith says this of the report of 100k at the Denver rally:
UPDATE: The Denver Post suggests a smaller number — some 35,000 in the park, and several thousand more in the side streets.


Lori

Leo-with Obama tax increases and resulting drop in market there would be no money left to pay his tuition. That's my point.

kim jane il

ummmm... clarice...

Denver Post article

Police: More than 100,000 watch Obama


Standing in front of more than 100,000 supporters in Civic Center park, Barack Obama said today he is ready for the final nine days of the presidential campaign and vowed to stay focused on improving the country's faltering economy.

Denver police estimated the crowd at more than 100,000. Civic Center park holds 34,000, and there were several thousand more in the streets surrounding the park and on the steps of the state Capitol.

clarice

34k but several thousand does not equal 100k does it?
Ben Smith doesn't think so either.http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

clarice

**"34kPLUS..."****

Charlie (Colorado)

Kim, honey, 100,000 in Civic Center park would fill all the streets and open space for tens of blocks around, closing the major surface streets in all directions. 34,000 and "several thousand more" is MAYBE 50,000

Jane Plumber

That's the Obama new math Clarice. Sheesh we need to send you to the re-education program.

tina

I saw Sarah today in Tampa; she was awesome. Elizabeth Hasselbeck introduced her and she was terrific. I'd guess 10K attendance, some other have guessed 15K (I haven't seen any real numbers reported yet). I got interviewed by ABC News afterwards....I'm sure my interview will not make the cut since I kind of laughed in the reporters face at many of her questions.

November 4th -- only solid red and blue states will be reported, anchors will hold off reporting any of the battleground states because they will not want to announce any battleground state that McCain wins.

clarice

Jane--there's so much re-education they'll have to do on me--Given my age I can't see there's any percentage in that. You and Chaco are younger..You go.

Chris

Forgot to annotate my election/Dow prediction with this caveat; Gird your loins!

I AM SERIOUS PEOPLE! And smarter than you.

Jim Ryan

I don't think its Cleo, fwiw. Wasn't Cleo unhinged, Paulian? This one is apparently mild-mannered Axelrod employee. Prolly $8/hr for it. Grad student in English or something.

sbw

What will happen after the election?

If McCain wins, a quiet day -- as people consider how close the bullet came that we just dodged. Stock market up.

If Obama wins, a quiet day -- as people consider, "Oh my goodness! What have we done." Stock market tumbles.

PeterUK

This source agrees with the figures given by Clarice.
BTW,How many buses were there in the car parks? An old leftist trick is to bus in the audience.

PeterUK

"I don't think its Cleo, fwiw. Wasn't Cleo unhinged, Paulian?"

No.Septic has been with us for years,a bit like persistent thrush.

Disreali

Rasmussen : After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

Wow! Rasmussen works hard to ensure that after that is said and done, the final weighting is 40% Democrat and 32.8% Republican.

If they believe there are more Ds than Rs in the population at large, any sample that they randomly select from an area not known to be solidly D or R should, theoretically, have more Ds than Rs. So poll and live with that. I know that sounds simple but I'll take that over results that are massaged to get the magical split that they believe exists. I hope someone will enumerate all this.

I really do enjoy the comments in JOM. Thank you all.

kim jane il

PUK, Albuquerque and Denver are two different cities.

clarice

Ah, the article PUK cites on the UNM fiesta notes:
"Thousands of people poured into The University of New Mexico's Johnson Field Saturday night, transforming the area into a night-time dance party and rock event with Barack Obama as the guest of honor. "


Dancing and singing isn't voting.

PeterUK

"Albuquerque and Denver are two different cities."

You don't say? I wondered why they were spelled differently.Nonetheless the figures agree do they not?

try Hang Gliding

Obama might very well win, but the story coming out of the election will be the overestimation of the preference for democrats. I just don't see the country rewarding the side that as led congress to something close to single digit approval ratings.


kim jane il

Nonetheless the figures agree do they not?

No; they are two different issues.

The 45k in Albuquerque isn't in dispute, but clarice attributed the crowd to an appearance by Carlos Santana, but that speculation turned out to be a freeper rumor.

The current dispute involves the Denver event where the Denver paper's headline and opening graf indicate a crowd of 100k, while in the body they talk about 34k in the main park and 'additional thousands' in the surrounding area.

But both topics have pretty much run their course, so you'll have to get your outrage fix on something else.

clarice

"The 45k in Albuquerque isn't in dispute, but clarice attributed the crowd to an appearance by Carlos Santana, but that speculation turned out to be a freeper rumor"

I NEVER mentioned the name of any musician only that I'd recalled reading that there was a musical performance there. The atest news account which I cited, confirms there was some sort of musical performance in addition to the presence of a well known comedian Lopez.

Syl

As I understand it the weighting of D's vs R's does not represent the actual number of D's vs R's but includes the assumption that many more D's than R's will actually vote. It's the pollsters' representation of their turnout model.

But don't forget, each pollster's turnout model is itself an assumption. Gallup said that the early voting (in FL, I believe) was about evenly split between D's and R's. This leads me to assume that the election may be much closer than polls are projecting. We'll see.

PeterUK

It is a single topic,the figures were overcounted.35,ooo inside and 10,000 outside.No problem.

Extraneus

Good on Fred Barnes.

To Know Her Is To Respect Her

The misplaced contempt for Sarah Palin is destined to be a defining moment in the history of the United States.

clarice

Dadfdy-you asked for updates on the Stevens case:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A federal judge on Sunday dismissed one of the jurors at Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens' corruption trial after losing contact with the woman following her father's death.

U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan plans to seat an alternate juror Monday morning and order the jury to start their deliberations over from the beginning, a setback for Stevens' attempt to get a verdict before Alaskans vote on Election Day.

"I think we've been more than reasonable," said Sullivan, who said court officials had not spoken with the juror since Friday despite repeated attempts to contact her.

In the Senate since 1968 and now its longest-serving Republican, Stevens is charged with lying on Senate financial disclosure documents to conceal $250,000 in home renovations and other gifts from a friend, millionaire oil contractor Bill Allen.

Stevens has proclaimed his innocence. He is locked in a tight race with Democrat Mark Begich for his Senate seat, and had hoped for an acquittal before Election Day.

Defense lawyer Robert Cary argued for Sullivan to delay his decision until noon Monday in case there was a reason the juror had not contacted the court. "She may be on her way back," Cary said.


fdcol63

Nov. 5 will be anything but quiet. There's a good chance that litigation will again decide this election.

However, if Obama wins, I predict:

1) Mass demonstrations by Obama's supporters, celebrating his historic victory.

2) Stunned silence by McCain's supporters, wondering what will happen next.

However, If McCain wins, I predict:

1) Mass demonstrations by Obama's supporters, rioting about another "stolen election" since the MSM's polls virtually guaranteed Obama's victory.

2) Stunned silence by McCain's supporters, thankful for having dodged the bullet but again, wondering what will happen next.

Syl

It is a single topic,the figures were overcounted.

Yep. The press is going for the Bandwagon Effect.

I was thinking this morning how I would choose in this election if I were still the person I was but a few years ago. My conclusion was that I would have chosen McCain merely because everyone else was going google-eye over Obama. When others jump on a bandwagon, my tendency was to run the hell away...whether I understood the issues or not.

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