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November 04, 2008

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Charlie (Colorado)

Who's this Earle guy?

hit and run

To the pain!

Charlie (Colorado)

OKay, how'd I get first post AFTER Hit threadherded us over?

hit and run

You're a winner.

Charlie (Colorado)

Oh, btw, I'm leaving in a half-hour or so for a big networking event in Denver. Just so you know why I go silent.

Elliott

'He said, "To bluff,'" or: Why Obama went to Indiana on election day.

Charlie (Colorado)

I'm glad you didn't spell that with an 'e'.

JM Hanes

Because he's trying to hear cats, Charlie.

DrJ

Glücklich ist, wer vergißt, was doch nicht zu ändern ist!

OK Strauss lovers -- have at it!

Fisher

For some reason, I have a warm feeling about Colorado today...

clarice

Great typing. People will think I tied up TM and took over.

hit and run

Because he's trying to hear cats

Cat whistle?

Sara (Pal2Pal)

How many ways can a dem. cheat?

Found: Pre-marked ballots for non-English speakers

Sue

I think I fall into the Tom Maguire column. Eyeores to the end...

clarice

Is it Earley Victorious? A revival?

JM Hanes

I meant **herd cats** of course, but maybe someone can do something clever with what I actually wrote.

Hey, looks like Republicans have beaten TeamObama on filing the first complaint in Ohio. Good Times!

peter

I ain't watching no TV tonight. no how. no channel Not FOX, not the drivebys. I will be on Hillbuzz and the Corner exclusively.

Fisher

So the spin is that "O" went to IN because the campaign that it would be called for McCain right after polls closed???

very interesting....

hrtshpdbox

"Clarice posted the links to various websites for Secretaries' of State at the end of this post."

Thanks, Elliot, I'm watching the Indiana site now (LUN). So far, nothin'! Maybe they've put the election off for a month or two so that we can better examine the candidates? You know, I'm thinking it's maybe not such a bad idea to just close all other windows (even JOM!) and watch the Indiana site update all night long. By midnight, if McCain's won Indiana by at leats 10 points, I might be brave enough to see what's happening on the MSM. Wouldn't it be perfect to tune in Olbermann to see him foaming at the mouth and throwing props around?

hit and run

Fisher:
So the spin is that "O" went to IN because the campaign that it would be called for McCain right after polls closed???

cf. Rick Ballard

It is my belief that the story from Marion County will become the equivalent of the early call of Florida for Gore in the 2000 election. I expect to see early stories of "massive and unexpected turnout in Indianapolis" all day long with a very early call (like 6:01) of Marion County for Obama, followed by "if McCain is doing this poorly in Indiana, it's all over". The whole purpose of such a story will be to suppress Republican turnout in states where the polls are still open, particularly in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

bgates

Maybe they've put the election off for a month or two so that we can better examine the candidates?
Maybe it's so we can examine better candidates.

Porchlight

Is it Earley Victorious? A revival?

Heh, Clarice. I surely hope so.

If you get a chance could you please LUN your blog location for tonight? I think someone posted it on the other thread but I am having trouble keeping up...

Elliott

It's over at American Thinker, Porchlight.

hit and run

CLARICE LIVEBLOG

hit and run

Oh, are you serious?

A captcha check to post that last link?!!??

Tonight?

Of all nights.

clarice

Thnx, Hit. I am going back and forth on an unfamiliar laptop.

DrJ

In that vein, hit, let me bastardize my earlier quote:

Glücklich ist, wer verfrißt, was nicht zu versaufen ist

The earlier one is more apropos the election.

clarice

I have a thought on the fairness doctrine. We start a nationwide movement of people who promist to cancel their news and mag subscriptions and boycott all TV news shows until the idea is dropped.

hit and run

Here we go with the exit poll carp.

Hold Fast. We May Have Either 2004 or 2006 On Our Hands

We have typically wildly contradictory data. We have Gawker's initial numbers that would make McCain fans think they have a real shot, and Drudge, which has Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by 15. Drudge also has Ohio, Indiana, and Florida too close to call, which is... strange. It's not easy to imagine a scenario in which Pennsylvania is a blowout, but demographically-similar Ohio is too close to call.

We also are seeing floating around places like MyDD and another Gawker post that suggest more or less the Obama ideal or near-ideal scenario.

Jane Plumber

I'm in Clarice. Does that include Britt?

Jane Plumber

Barone says Bucks County PA is going 2-1 for Obama. That's bad news.

DrJ

I thought all the "objectionable" content (like Rush et. al) would simply move to Sirius or equivalent.

hit and run

sorry, more from that Geraghty link:

I find myself in a similar role to 2004. Folks, if you have not voted, go out and vote. The McCain camp and state GOP sources that I talk to are far from "stoic" as a CNN report just claimed. They think they have astonishing, record turnout in red parts of all of the important swing states - you name it - Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, even New Hampshire. I cannot tell you that what they say they see is enough to give McCain a win. But it should be enough to refute the Obama's set-to-win-huge argument.

Should.

Charlie (Colorado)

You know, I'm beginning to think that Drudge purposefully does his headlines to generate more hysterics in order to generate traffic.

Charlie (Colorado)

I thought all the "objectionable" content (like Rush et. al) would simply move to Sirius or equivalent.

Except there's already been talk that direct-sat radio ought to be regulated for "sexual content."

bgates

people who promise to cancel their news and mag subscriptions and boycott all TV news shows
Who still has news or mag subscriptions?

Who gets news from TV?

DrJ

Except there's already been talk that direct-sat radio ought to be regulated for "sexual content."

If Stern can survive, I don't worry much about "talk radio."

kim

Way, way, back, Obama gave his race speech facing Bucks County and they still haven't recovered.
=============================

centralcal

Jane: Barone says ..... based only on exit data, right? Not actual votes?

Charlie (Colorado)

okay, I'm off to Network. Have fun while I'm gone.

Porchlight

Thanks for the Clarice link, Elliott and Hit..


Barone says Bucks County PA is going 2-1 for Obama.

In real votes or in exit polling, Jane?

Sue

If PA goes Obama after everything he has said about them, they deserve what they get.

Charlie (Colorado)

I guess Tom is reading this --- he fixed the typo.

Porchlight

Agreed, Sue. Though geographically much of PA will vote against O, it's just the damn cities that vote in the Dem every time.

Jim Ryan

Tom, Palin stays in Alaska and has a life, letting us idiots figure things out for ourselves.

centralcal

Ace is saying that the Gawker exit poll numbers are bogus and that the leads are much larger. Guess Drudge has the exit carp right.

tina

Drudge highlighting everything in red on his page....Exit polls show Obama big.

He also has a link to a story:

2004 Flashback: Egg on the face of exit pollsters.

Kondrake essentially just said on FNC that Obama is the next President. Brit told him to shut up, too soon to say anything, exit polls only....yada yada yada. Time to turn the TV off.

Captain Hate

Except there's already been talk that direct-sat radio ought to be regulated for "sexual content."

I thought that was a major component of the raison d'etre for satellite radio. Even though I don't listen to satellite radio (I have enjoyed it in rental cars before) does the nanny state have to be so blatant in its disdain for free speech?

Pagar

For those who wonder about Philadelphia and the New Black Panthers:

"…On whites: “I’m about the total destruction of white people. I’m about the total liberation of black people. I hate white people. I hate my enemy. . . .”"

LUN

Porchlight

I refuse to panic about early exit polls which are utter garbage. I will never understand why they're even released at all.

M. Simon

Just voted. Short lines. Well organized.

Rockford, Illinois

Sara (Pal2Pal)

Polls don't even close in PA until 8 pm.

And remember, most of Florida closes at 7, but the Panhandle is 8 pm.

Jim Ryan

How do they get a representative sample of polling precincts for their exit polls? Do they make any attempt to do so?

hit and run

3....2....1....

Jane Plumber

Obama wins VT, McCain wins Kt, Indiana, VA, GA too close to call. Republican Governor in Indiana prevails.

Fisher

In Indiana: 2.6% in MAC up by .04%

Let's call it!!!!

centralcal

What state is Kt?

Sarah Joseph Ballard

The 53rd. Zero thought he had it for sure.

Elliott

Haven't called South Carolina for McCain yet. Pretty clear the exit polling is not accurate again.

tina

Exit polling is BS, in fact, I don't know why they report it either. I decided to keep the TV on (woe is me) and Meghan Kelley was talking about all these polls....then Brit interrupted and reminded everyone this is exit polls, and in 04 they were way off, then they added a gazzilion caveats about those exit polls. So why bother reporting them if they have no faith in them? Argh, trash TV.

kim

It's awfully early, but I like the 51-48% break for McCain, so far.
==========================================

Sara (Pal2Pal)

4% of vote:

Indiana

McCain 50%
Obama 49%

clarice

For the same reasonthey continued polling and reporting polls when they knew they had insufficient info--to fill air time and coffers.

joan

Gad, I'm going to be sick.

Jim Ryan

Ace: Shock: Late-Deciding Voters Eager to Talk to College-Age Hipster Exit Pollsters Break for Obama

Pofarmer

We start a nationwide movement of people who promist to cancel their news and mag subscriptions and boycott all TV news shows until the idea is dropped.

Done, anything else I can do to help out?

jimrhoads aka vnjagvet

It appears that the Indiana Republican Governor is pulling more votes than McCain. They have already called the state for him on FX.

Jor

Indiana is extremely close -- it was barely contested. HEH -- if indiana stays at 1% margin -- McCain is toast.

kim

Wait a minute, they've called Vermont with 0% of the precincts reporting. Popular vote 0-0. That's some computer, there.
===================================

Pofarmer

Counties in MO reporting 80% plus turnout.

Fisher

Can we sell VT to Canada for about $700 Billion.

Sara (Pal2Pal)

Indiana 6%

McCain 51%
Obama 47%

JM Hanes

I think John King on CNN always has a terrific grasp of election dynamics, down to county, if not precinct level. Alas, the first time I tuned into CNN I got David Gergen assessing the brilliance of Obama's campaign strategy, so I checked back later only to be greeted by Jeff Toobin's smarmy little face. Fortunately my reflexes were still quick enough to exit before I had to hear him saying anything. Blech and Blech's bitchy brother Blech.

Jane Plumber

KT

Why Centralcal, it's the 57th state, Kentabulous.

Or in the real world my stab at abbreviating Kentucky.

matt

Kazakhstan....

bad

What state is Kt?

Konnektikut?

Bill in AZ

woohoo! After John and Rudy called earlier today, Sarah finally called at 5:10PM AZ time. Polls are open for two more hours - I'm heading out to vote again!

clarice

Let's trade Vt for Alberta.

Sara (Pal2Pal)

Virginia 1%

McCain 55%

Obama 44%

Elliott

Obama people have given up on North Carolina per Major Garrett. So they are directing the press' attention to the shiny object known as Indiana.

Sara (Pal2Pal)

Florida 1%

McCain 53%
Obama 46%

kim

Virginia!
======

centralcal

Kentabulous I like. Glad our side won ;)

DrJ

Let's trade Vt for Alberta.

No one is that dumb. How about Gretzky for Vt. (even though he lives in Phoenix now)?

Sara (Pal2Pal)

Indiana his flip-flopped, Obama now up 50 to 49%

bad

I haven't seen Bill Burton in days. Where is that smarmy vermin wad?

Amused bystander

What if we throw in MA?

Sara (Pal2Pal)

Indiana, flipped again, 9% vote, McCain 50% to Obama 49%

Looks like it is going to be an up and down night

matt

they don't have to bother calling VT, CA, NY or MA these days...foregone conclusions....

CA is going to have the mother of all wake up calls though. Even the unemployment insurance fund, which I thought was sacrosanct, has been plundered. They are saying BK is less than a year away, even sooner if unemployment rises precipitously.

Once people see how they have been conned, i think it's going to get pretty nasty. We simply can't afford any more taxes here. They are going to have to declare bankruptcy and restructure the pension funds something fierce. maybe the California Teacher's Association will finally take it in the shorts.

Jim Ryan

Jor, don't you have a circle jerk to go to?

Laura

Watching house. A black senator with presidential aspirations is getting go over by house for HIV and cancer. much better than the election coverage

clarice

California might consider selling off some of its land and bldg holdings, slahing govt employee benefits and getting like--you know--real.

Pofarmer

Well, this is interesting


LUN


A reader writes:


I'm a student at Carleton College who has contributed (financially and with my time) to the Obama campaign. I just got an automated call from Jeff Blodgett, the chair of the MN campaign. The text of the call was:

"Hello, this is Jeff Blodgett from the Minnesota for Obama campaign. Our initial data shows this election is significantly closer than the polls predicted. We are putting out an urgent call for volunteers... We are organized groups to knock on doors at five P.M., or earlier if you can, for our final GOTV operation." This was followed by different numbers to call based on your residence
kim

What's with the news of Grant Park?
======================

jimrhoads aka vnjagvet

Warner has been called as Senator in VA. McCain is running ahead of Warner there.

Jane Plumber

What if we throw in MA?

Hey! Some of the best JOMers are Massachusettsians.

I want to see how well Jeff Beatty did against Kerry. (Or should I say Mr. Secretary of State)

jimrhoads aka vnjagvet

Warner, of course, is a Dem.

hit and run

Indiana, flipped again, 9% vote, McCain 50% to Obama 49%

Looks like it is going to be an up and down night

At the Indiana state site, Marion county hasn't started reporting yet. Indianacornapolis, that is.

clarice

I'm staring across the table at the CNN site and McCain looks like he's doing well so natch we're getting reminders that we've a long way to go.
Awful to listen to all the blather to fill dead time.

hit and run

OK, that state site is slow.

CNN has Marion county with 2% reporting, basically tied.

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