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June 30, 2009

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Rick Ballard

OL,

Add Deutsche Bank's [via Jansen] analysis of the actual jobs situation. The BLS birth/death model is currently a joke and the hours worked reduction has precisely the impact which Deutsche Bank describes.

Perhaps Stim II is in the works - if it is I think we can add it to Friends of Fascism, PPIP, as DOA - maybe DBA (dead before arrival). It will be like the millions and millions of mortgages that were supposed to be adjusted - a chimera hiding behind a fantasy.

Somehow the productive element of society just doesn't seem to believe the Ogabe Regime stooges. I can't imagine why.

RichatUF

Rick, thanks for the NYT's article. Noticed that the blame shifting is still in full force. Maybe I ought to dig through the comments from Jan and Feb because I'm pretty sure in those threads we thought that unemployment was going to 10% and peaking around 11% or 12%. Send the author a clue perhaps.

Parking Lot, I could see it as someone maybe hinting at another round of "stimulus", but since the last round still hasn't been spent, and most of it won't be until 2010 and 2011 on the typical lefty vote buying programs, I seriously doubt that the administration would want to another round. I think the political risks would militate against it-maybe...

I'm still surprised that Dr. Romer is using the inventory build theory for a strong recovery. Since the savings rate is so high and business climate so weak, I don't see were the demand for cars, consumer durables, or business investment necessary for a few quarters of strong inventory builds is going to come from. And with tax hikes coming and debt service costs increasing, the case can be made that comsumer spending is going to weaken outside of gas prices.

GMax

Deb

He thinks there are enough folks stupid enough that he can try it( and looking at the election results he has some reason to believe it might work). He does not expect you to believe him, but he is counting on the press not to point out the inconsistencies and inanities. Whether that will hold for much longer, is the difference between him being slight positive on public approval, and a hugely unpopular guy with little support beyond around the 20 % which would support Fidel if he had a (D) after his name.

RichatUF

And I didn't even include jobs in my last comment. With weakening payrolls and reduced hours, people are going to have to cut back because they've lost a job or are making less money, sticking another fork into the "inventory build" turkey.

Porchlight

Rasmussen approval index -1 today; GOP takes a 2-point lead on the generic ballot. 54-45 overall.

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll

I am having a hard time parsing out this, though:

Americans are evenly divided on the climate change bill passed by the House last week—37% favor it and 41% are opposed. Forty-two percent (42%) believe it will help the economy and 19% believe it will hurt. Most (56%) are not willing to pay more in taxes and utility costs to fight Global Warming.
Old Lurker

Right you are, Rich. My shopping center tenants tell me (when asking for a rent concession I might add), that they have no need for more inventory because their customers are not buying at the moment. I am a softy on rent assistance which I grant, when I grant them, in six month chunks. My oldest "gift" is now in it's third go'round.

Old Lurker

Good DB link, Rick. Those folks have a good track record for clear-eyed economic analysis.

RichatUF

Porchlight-

The muddle is confused. Did the NYT ever write a big glossy 7 thousand word article regarding the study on the Spanish experiment in "green collar jobs"? Nope, but the did do a 7 thousand word write up when Ganiesville Regional Utilities contracted to buy about $150k per year of solar power from customers who bothered to sink about $10K into a solar system and buy-back meter.

DebinNC

Wage deflation in our midst

Yet Romer and Summers claim consumer spending will be going up.

bad

Gateway:

Under the new democratic cap and trade legislation all US homes will have to meet strict government eco-standards before they can be sold. This will cost homeowners thousands of dollars before the home can even be put up for sale.

Keep your eye on this issue. Should cause all kinds of joy...

LUN

Danube of Thought

Porchlight, I'm quite sure that Rasmussen just inadvertently transposed the words "help" and "hurt" in today's polling about the climate bill. Here's yesterday's report:

"Americans have mixed feelings about the historic climate change bill that passed the House on Friday, but 42% say it will hurt the U.S. economy.

"A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just 19% believe the climate change bill passed by the House on Friday will help the economy. Fifteen percent (15%) say it will have no impact, and 24% are not sure."

The passage you quoted had me scratching my head for a while, too.

Rick Ballard

bad,

The work will have to be done by a gubmint approved ACORN backed Caulking and Weatherstripping Contractor as well. That's how they're planning on picking which houses to seize (if the ACORN census workers miss them on the first pass).

Welcome to Zimbabwe.

OL,

I really like the "ground up" approach used by the DB economists. Apparently they haven't had the benefit of a good Northeastern indoctrination education by the likes of Krugman.

Even DB hasn't as yet picked up on the full crunch suffered by proprietors. It's in the tax deposit numbers but it hasn't shown up in the BEA analysis to date. (Another fantastic "modeling" effort in need of just a few minor adjustments).

Danube of Thought

I expect that soon Venezuela and Bolivia will offer to take the Gitmo detainees off Obama's hands. Problem solved.

bad
“The Administrator, in consultation with the Secretary of Energy, shall establish goals, guidelines, practices, and standards for accomplishing the purpose stated in subsection (c) [the retrofits],” the bill says. (Page 356 Lines 3 -6)

The program would involve a system of certified auditors, inspectors, and raters who inspect homes and businesses using devices such as infrared cameras (which measure how much heat a building is giving off) to measure their energy efficiency. (Page 356 Lines 10-19)

The results of these energy audits would then be used to determine what retrofits need to be performed. The audits would examine things like water usage, infrared photography, and pressurized testing to determine the efficiency of door and window seals, and indoor air quality. (Page 357 Lines 3-12) Those retrofits would be performed by licensed retrofit contractors using government-approved methods and resources including roofing materials that reflect solar energy.

“[B]uilding retrofits conducted pursuant to a REEP program utilize, especially in all air-conditioned buildings, roofing materials with high solar energy reflectance,” the legislation states. (Page 357 Lines 13-16)

What could go wrong?

PeterUK

bad,
That sounds like HIPs which was instituted here.It has been a disaster,helping to slow down house sales.Nobody wants to have a punt if it is going to cost money for an eco inspection every time you try the market.
There has been endless problems with untrained inspectors and cowboy operators.Plus it has been a drag on those who want to,have to downsize in the current hostile economic climate.

It won't go down well with the doing classes.

Porchlight

Thank you, DoT! I could have sworn I'd seen it phrased the other way round somewhere else, possibly in one of your comments. Now I don't feel so crazy.

bad

Thanks for the link, PUK. I likes me some construction worker eye candy for lunch.

DebinNC

Hero eye candy for bad: LUN

clarice

CBO report that's not getting enough coverage--US must curb govt health care costs:

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/cbo-must-curb-govt-health-spending

PeterUK

HIPS>

Everything that can go wrong will go wrong.

PeterUK

Green Unemployment.
Looks like Joe the Construction Worker will be out of work under the Green Regime of Obama.
Why does anyone listen to a man who has never had a day job?

PDinDetroit

Cash for Clunkers Recovery Team hard at work - LUN.

PeterUK

Fifteen Kennedys seem a bit much.

Pagar

If you can only read one Link today, read the one PeterUK put up at 01:38. The 1st sentence should mandatory for any article containing the word Obama in the future. Great Post,PeterUK!

PeterUK

Thanks Pagar,

The Mean Green Unemployed Machine.

Sue

See, if I was going to have an affair, it would be with someone like Jason Oglesbee. Someone that could pull me out of a swollen river. I wouldn't want someone who couldn't figure out how to solve the problem without waiting on the government to do it. I bet Oglesbee doesn't write sappy love letters either. Dibs, girls!

Sue
Oglesbee was reluctant to give his name or be interviewed when first approached by members of the media. He later allowed a couple of questions before returning to work.

::sigh::

bad

Jason is a smart man. He doesn't want to get JoethePlumbered.

You've chosen wisely, Grasshopper...

Grasshopper

Thank you.

Fresh Air

To whoever put the piece up about Zero staying in office. I understand the fear, though I have to say I think this guy will be damn lucky not be wiped out like Mondale in three years.

Consider that as bad as McCain was, and as much black racism as was experienced, he still came within about five points of winning. Now consider the following. Which McCain voters now wish they had voted for Zero? Conversely which Zero voters regret their choice? I submit that the second group is a huge number, while the first group is probably practically nothing.

If you re-weight the actual results for where things stand today, conservatives would return to the fold, from McCain's 85% to Bush's 95% = +10 swing of group, +3.1% overall. Antiwar liberals = -1 swing of group, -0.2% overall. The great Muddle, swing +15 of group, +7.2% overall.

Total swing, based upon the disaster to date: 10.5% of the electorate. You're talking Michael Dukakis now, with Mondale and McGovern coming up as the Round-Up saturated "green shoots" croak and the Chinese loan sharks lurk around the corner.

Mustang0302

DoT,

I'd like to pass along your 'Dinner w/BHO Parable' from last night; actually, I'd like to cleave a few thick, soft skulls with it.

Can you ID the author or provide an original link to his devastating words?

Like most of y'all, I suspect, I know a few people who are uniquely vulnerable to the message of that parable right about now.

Like their 'evil-eyed messiah', none have actually admitted they made a huge mistake yet...but their actions speak louder than words. Nothing speaks louder than the sudden silence of those who recently, loudly, supported JEC II.

His "...chickens...are coming ho-ome...to roost!"

RichatUF
And it comes as Palin struggles to find her footing, at times appearing to want to take a strictly Alaska-first approach, but then re-emerging on the national stage – something chronicled in the nearly 10,000-word Vanity Fair article.

link

Got this from the Obamaico article about the Vanity Fair article about Gov. Palin. Hummm, maybe narciso can answer this question better, but her event in Indiana was for a pro-life cause and her event in New York could have been considered state business since New York was celebrating their former governor, secterary of state, and "buyer" of Alaska, Wm Seward. The state-run-media is working overtime. Probably thinking that since it was so easy to get Gov. Sanford (really Mark, you thought that you could leave the country and an Obama staffer running Borders and Customs wouldn't have said something) that the fire should now be all directed at her.

And McCain's campaign staffers are still scum.


Rick Ballard

Tax Deposits Update

Today's report finishes off Q2 and "finishes off" is quite apt. Q1 '09 came in at YoY -8.14% for taxes withheld, -12.19% for personal taxes (proprietors) and -30.62% for corporate income taxes. Q2 '09 finished with -11.91% for taxes withheld, -21.59% for personal taxes and -36.75% for corporate income taxes.

That's not the bad news. June is the bad news > -15.53% for taxes withheld, -39.55%
for personal taxes (proprietors) and -33.44% for corporate income taxes.

The final GDP for Q1 was -5.5%. I'll give the person who can explain how Q2 comes in any better a nickel for the explanation.

There is really something out of whack with the weekly unemployment claims numbers. The month end tax deposits for June were simply horrible and the unemployment claims numbers should have reflected the layoffs. It's that or weekly hours have been cut substantially more than the .1 per week reported last month.

Sorry about the lack of green shoots.

narciso

The Auburn event was certainly state business, but she found time to visit Seneca Falls, the home of the women's movement and she did another charity for special needs children on Long Island, then the drop by the NRSC dinner, She did the Alfalfa Dinner and a meeting with Fred Malek, nearly four months before; and the Chambliss rally last December. That's the whole of her lower 48 exposure. I would be charitable and say they can't read a simple timeline, but it's much more insidious than that.

Pagar

Narciso, have you seen this bunch of garbage?

Apparently he thinks that Mark Sanford cheating on his wife is similar to raising a special needs child:

I don't have a lot, but I've got enough left over to send a little to the fund to help Gov Palin cover her legal fees. It seems to be almost a life sentence to oppose the Democrats in any manner anymore.

Meanwhile, the voters pay the fines for Democrat wrongdoing.

King County has now settled my public records lawsuit for $225,000, one of the largest settlements for public records violations in state history.

Ron Sims, who was the King county administrator at the time of the violation, and also at the time of the Yousoufian scandal which is mentioned in the same link, (and which will be a much larger fine) is now Obama's 32 at HUD.

Pagar

last sentence should read Obama's #2 at Hud.

narciso

Yes I saw that, this comes from one of the sponsors for an alternative carbon tax to the cap n trade framework. Seriously they really need a preview function before they something so asinine, this is almost up there with Slo Jo, the new vizier of Iraq,
and probably Honduras by next week.

Preved

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