2. The challenge proceeds in monthly intervals, with the first month being August. At the end of each month, we'll tally up the winning and losing days and the loser writes the winner a check for the balance.
There is also an eligibility threshold:
1. You live in the United States and provide me with your home address and telephone number (I will provide you with mine) and,
2. You are a regular (at least once weekly) contributor to a political, economics or science blog with an Alexa traffic global ranking of 50,000 or lower.
The reason for the latter requirement is because I want to be able to shame/humiliate you if you back out of the challenge or refuse to pay, as I'd assume you'd do the same with me.
I have emailed Mr. Silver to say yes to this proposition, subject to a couple of modifications.
First, where is the love? Alexa ranks me at a mere 180,000 or some such. I blame the "Typepad" hosting (while I search for Blogger Viagra). However, I am confident that I am somebody, so perhaps Mr. Silver will relent on this point.
As to the hometown, oh, bother. Mr. Silver's original post was in response to a Powerline effort from Minneapolis; after researching that, I am not inclined to double down and check out my hometown, too. We started in Minneapolis, so let's continue there.
Finally, Mr. Silver proposes the Weather Underground as a data source (free registration required!). That won't be as much fun for people following along and there may be a data matching problem - presumably we want the daily averages to be based on the same station that is providing the daily data for 2009. My suggestion is the use use the staid old National Weather Service, which reports data for Minneapolis - here are daily averages, and the resource to churn out monthly reports.
I will keep people apprised of developments.
DISCLAIMER: In the event legal questions become a problem, let's agree on charitable donations as a means of settlement. If clouds darken his day for too long, Mr. Silver will be contributing to Clean Air Cool Planet. In my name, natch.
ADDENDUM: Hmm, can we both be idiots?
WHERE WE STAND: I sent Mr. Silver an email at 1:05 PM indicating my acceptance subject to the modifications noted above. As of 10:45 PM (my bedtime, since the Yankees won a while ago) I have not heard back, and he did set a Monday deadline. I left a comment at his site noting this, but that comment is still being held in moderation, so I really am the invisible man just now.
Oh, well - apparently the clock is running out on me, possibly for reasons which were mentioned in my initial post - the NWS expects the cool weather in Minnesota to continue for a few more months. Is a picture worth a thousand words?
Too bad. If my non-residency in the Minneapolis area had been invoked as the technicality disqualifying me, I was hoping to volunteer either Captain Ed or John Hinderaker as my Minneapolis surrogate (I am strangely capable of curbing my conscience long enough to get a bet down), but there won't be time to work that magic unless Mr. Silver extends his self-imposed deadline. Time will tell.
WE ARE ON THE SAME PAGE, AND THE SAME WEATHER MAP: Mr. Silver responds, with kind words for my blogging and a candid explanation that, although he was born at night, it wasn't last night:
country is expected to have average-to-above-average temperatures through the middle of 2011.
If someone from MSP or Chicago or Milwaukee happened to want to take the bet -- that's fine, I'm a man of my word (although I'd hope that person would not be a total weenie and would continue the bet for longer than 30 days). But if I allow people to cherry-pick their location, I'm just printing money for them, and it sort of defeats the purpose, which is to illustrate that *on average* the country is getting (slightly) warmer.
Feel free to re-print this on your site.
Hmm, "total weenie"? I prefer to think of myself as a value shopper, although "weasel" is OK, too. My intention had been to back the stats jockeys at the National Weather Service for a month, maybe two (depending on how the updated forecast came in in mid-August). Like Mr. Silver, I want a bet I can feel good about, so we don't have anything here.
Oh, well. Opportunity was knocking, but it was on somebody else's door. And props to Mr. Silver, who managed to run a bluff past the table.