What If They Gave A Crisis And Nobody Came?

Whatever financial market crisis Boehner and Obama may have been worried about over the weekend has not materialized. At this writing the Dow is down 34, the S&P 500 is down 2, and the NASDAQ is flat.

Meanwhile, back in DC Boehner prepares to call Obama's bluff by sending a new bill to the Senate with some spending cuts ad a short term debt ceiling extension  But will such a bill find enough Republican support?

And in the Senate the still-relevant Majority Leader Reid plans to call the Republicans' bluff (quoting Yglesias) by giving them the revenue-free spending cuts only bill they claim they want.  That'll show 'em!  Well, Yglesias argues that since the Republicans' not-so-hidden agenda is entitlement reform, which Reid carefully sidesteps, Republicans can't say yes.  Of course, Reid will need to go on record with dramatic non-entitlement cuts, and where will he find the votes?  The suspense would be mounting if anyone cared.

Comments

[Ben Franklin]

"unclear what Mr. Boehner’s proposal, set to be unveiled on Monday, will entail. Some reports suggest that it might consist of a six-month increase in the debt limit"

Woot. There it is............

This is just like watching "Dancing with the Stars"

The Dems and Obama want this done this year for the sake of 2012.

Bohner and Friends want it next year.

It's a Death Dance.................

[Clarice]

I know which side of the table I'm placing my chips on.

[Ben Franklin]

Are those "Dime A Dance" chips, Clarice?

[sam]

Whatever Boehner decides will pass and get happily signed by Obama.

The moron Reid could not get kidney stones passed in the Senate, let alone a budget plan.

[sam]

Personally, I'd like The House GOP to pass a $100 bn debt limit increase coupled with a $100 bn spending cut every month.

We'll have balanced revenue and spending by the end of 2012.

[Dave (in MA)]

Somebody'll probably want to have their way with this.

[Chubby]

((Whatever Boehner decides will pass and get happily signed by Obama.))

... so he can get on with the really really important work, like planning his birthday party.

[Jane]

The suspense would be mounting if anyone cared.

I admit I'm even getting bored. The excitement peaked Sat afternoon. Now the whole thing is a big yawn.

I say do nothing. Let Obama screech. No one is listening.

[Ben Franklin]

It's about perception.....the reality 'dance'.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/07/25/zelizer.obama.gop.center/index.html?eref=rss_topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+%28RSS%3A+Top+Stories%29

"Republican presidential candidates should be nervous about the polls. Public opinion shows that the public doesn't trust either side to resolve the deficit, but they trust the Republicans far less than they do the Democrats.
According to a Wall Street Journal poll, the public supports Obama's grand bargain by a 22% margin. ABC News and The Washington Post reported that 77% believed that the GOP has not done enough to compromise on the deficit, compared with 58% saying the same about Obama. According to CBS News, 71% of those surveyed were unhappy with how the Republicans were handling the negotiations, compared with a 48% disapproval rate for Obama."

[Ben Franklin]

http://www.themonkeycage.org/

Mired in a surge of summer heat amid escalating debt ceiling banter, we in Washington are asking a vital question. Who is to blame for our present woes? President Obama? Congress? The Tea Party? China? Your neighbor’s hairspray or your boss’s gas-guzzler? To find the true culprits, we must travel back through the space-time continuum to our nation’s first debt swap. Tomorrow, July 26, we celebrate the two hundred and twenty-first anniversary of the legislative fruit of a back-room bargain between the ‘Gang of Two’: Secretary of Treasury Alexander Hamilton and Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson. And Washingtonians are still paying the price today!

[matt]

so far it seems Boehner is winning this game, but remember, there's going to be a lot of pain inflicted along the way.

Bammers will use that pain in every way possible against the Republicans. He will attribute every pending crisis to those evil, obstinate Republicans. I hope the Repubs are out in front in the propaganda war, for that is what it will become.

More on the ongoing recovery in Japan. It's not going so good over there. LUN

[Clarice]

You know I normally would give great weight to any poll by the media, esp. CNN, however:

"Rasmussen: Voters Trust Republicans on Economy
John Hinderaker
PowerLine
7/24/2011

The Democrats’ shameless efforts to demagogue the debt crisis don’t seem to be working. Today’s Rasmussen Reports finds that likely voters trust Republicans over Democrats on the economy by ten points, 45-35. Meanwhile, the Gallup Poll has Obama’s approval rating under water at 42-49, within one point of his worst rating ever. Rasmussen’s Approval Index currently stands at an abysmal minus 21, which I believe ties Obama’s worst showing ever. A hefty 44% of likely voters now “strongly disapprove” of Obama’s job performance.

So John Boehner and his fellow Republicans should not let themselves be bullied. The American people are counting on them."

CommonAmerican Journal

[Charlie (Colorado)]

The moron Reid could not get kidney stones passed in the Senate, let alone a budget plan.

To be fair, passing a kidney stone is really hard.

[Ben Franklin]

Raz is similarly hobbled, Clarice.

[sbw]

NYT: "But every year starting in 2002, the budget fell into deficit."

Sigh. Just so they van blame Booosh, NYT rewrites history to omit 9/11.

[sbw]

van=can

[Boatbuilder]

Dave--That NYT editorial is the most wilfully dishonest thing I have read in a long time; or at least since they tried to pin Loughner on Sarah Palin. Even by NYT standards, it is low.

[Jane]

If you ever doubted that JEF was simply evil, read what he said to La Raza today:

"The idea of doing things on my own is very tempting. I promise you, not just on immigration reform. But that's not how our system works. That's not how our democracy functions. That's not how our Constitution is written," Obama said at the National Council of La Raza's annual conference.

I have little doubt that he will keep trying to do things on his own.

[narciso]

She's new 'the new drone, in Sector 7G, Boatbuilder. but the template is in the water, over there.

[anduril]

The trick to getting big donations is to have a candidate who can win.

Major GOP donors are anxious, even if Gov. Christie isn't

Look at the litany of sentence lead ins:

Disappointment with the Republican field

“As I talk to some people around the country, they’re not sure we have a candidate who can win,”

“I would do backflips if he would run,”

The dissatisfaction with the Republican field can be seen in lukewarm poll numbers

Republicans are also waiting to see

“The American people are pretty fed up with Republicans and Democrats, and they want a candidate who will stand tall among all the other candidates

Until a candidate catches fire, Straight said, donors will keep knocking at Christie’s door

“The people like Ken Langone will still be trying to get people into the primary,”

The number of wealthy donors who keep buttonholing Christie

“He’s not going to be at the tail end of the pack in terms of money raised or ability to raise it,”

[Mikey]

The media has been way behind in the debt ceiling debate and I wouldn't trust the network polling or the punditry. Even our side is behind the curve. I was nice listening to Byron York updating Bill Bennett this morning on the politics of blame for a debt default. If the tea party doesnt blow it, Boehner will have won big. I didnt think it would be possible that Obama would be effectively neutered before my 4 month old kittens went under the knife.

[Sue]

"Don't you make me call my bluff."

Sounds suspiciously like Ray in "The Princess and the Frog".

"Don't you make me light my butt."

If you haven't seen the Disney movie, Ray is a Cajun firefly. Ray is short for Raymond...pronounced in Cajun fashion.

[Captain Hate]

Dave--That NYT editorial is the most wilfully dishonest thing I have read in a long time; or at least since they tried to pin Loughner on Sarah Palin. Even by NYT standards, it is low.

Tammy Bruce was just making those points

[Frau Steingehirn]

matt, Yoko Ono is generating PR going over to give her sympathy to the Japanese people and spur tourism.

[Sue]

Jane,

Can you imagine if Bush had said those words?

[Chubby]

Jane

((The idea of doing things on my own is very tempting. I promise you, not just on immigration reform))

remember how the lefties got totally unhinged when Bush joked about being a dictator? and Bush was joking. Obama isn't

[Chubby]

((Even by NYT standards, it is low. ))

maybe it's reached the momentum point where the lower they go, the lower Obama's poll numbers will go

[Jane]

Can you imagine if Bush had said those words?

I absolutely can not. He has no idea what this country is about.

[Frau Steingehirn]

A German rallying song during the 19th century was "Thoughts are free."

"Killings in Norway Spotlight Anti-Muslim Thought in U.S." NYTimes
Time to get out my "This item has been reported to the Thought Police" stamp? Will our officers have appropriate dun uniforms?

[Another Barbara]

I hope the Repubs are out in front in the propaganda war, for that is what it will become.

(deep sigh) Yes, I wish for that too, Matt (she said with shoulders slumped in hopelessness). Boehner is receiving a lot of love here this morning -- deservedly, I hope -- but when he speaks he always sounds disengaged, to me, and certainly not someone to capture hearts and minds. Oh to have a leader with style and vigor to make our case.

[cathyf]

First sentence -- "healthy surpluses in the Clinton years." No, ignoramouses, the surplus that ONE year just before the tech bubble burst was people paying capital gains taxes on their stock options when their companies went IPO.

(And to be fair, the Bush almost-surplus we had in 2007 came from people paying capital gains taxes on their houses.)

Politician LOVE bubbles, because they get all that tax money in one fell swoop, and they are too stupid to understand that when the bubble bursts the tax receipts get hit much harder than the big chunk they got all at once.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Die Gedanken Sind Frei.

[Jane]

He has no idea what this country is about.

"He" being Obama. (But you knew that)

[Frau Steingehirn]

Thanks, ChaCo, for an enjoyable, non-Seeger version.

[Strawman Cometh]

Is there no BREAKING NEWS!!!!11 with which to preempt Shep?

[Old Lurker]

And even then, the "surplus" resulted in even more debt becuase of off-budget spending.

I'm sure the Dutch had a big surplus back when jonquil bulbs traded at $100.

[Danube of Thought]

Boehner seems hung up on the balanced budget amendment. I'd love to see them pass the same bill but without a BBA.

God knows where this is going, but this is a hell of a way for this kind of business to be carried out. What about the old-fashioned idea of a budget from each chamber, followed by public debate and a conference committee?

[Porchlight]

The idea of doing things on my own is very tempting.

Very similar to what he said in his University of Maryland townhall a couple of days ago (my emphasis):

"But I’m sympathetic to your view that this would be easier if I could do this entirely on my own. (Laughter.) It would mean all these conversations I’ve had over the last three weeks I could have been spending time with Malia and Sasha instead. But that’s not how our democracy works."

Har de har.

He really shows his true colors when someone has the temerity to deny him what he wants. The little toddler that he is.

It's also interesting that he knows that this line will resonate with his supporters, who as far as I can tell, are either morons or sympathetic to the idea of a leftist dictator or both.

[JM Hanes]

"But will such a bill find enough Republican support?"

Nate Silver points out the immediate problem for Republicans easily enough, but like those now enjoying the slide in Obama's approval ratings, doesn't really address the method behind the President's kicking & screaming madness. Per Silver:

Republicans have 240 members in the House, and 217 votes are currently required to pass a bill. That means they could lose at most 23 votes, or about 10 percent of their caucus, assuming they picked up no Democratic support.

Mr. Boehner had previously indicated, however, that at least 59 Republicans would not vote to raise the debt limit under any circumstances, a number that appears to coincide with the 60 Republicans who are members of the Tea Party Caucus.

Obama is counting on that Caucus in more ways than one. Even if Boehner manages to whip the vote for an interim package, Obama's New! Improved! spin is that Republicans who reject his "long term" solution are recklessly fomenting market uncertainties, destroying the U.S. credit rating and wreaking global economic havoc.  None of which would happen, he asserts, if Tea Party extremists weren't pulling Republican strings. Driving that wedge into the Republican party's heart is Obama's prime directive.  If he can't take the issue off the campaign table completely, he can blame Tea Party Republicans for derailing his putative recovery -- and killing off all the jobs he saved or created.  Èt voilá, Tea Party Republicans own the Obama economy.

The biggest problem that the Tea Parties don't seem to grasp is that you cannot win as the Party of No in a presidential election year! Congressional candidates and our nominee are going to need achievements and a positive vision of the future, to sell. Running as insurgent naysayers worked in the mid-terms -- when Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress. Right now, we should be paying a lot more attention to the Democratic veil of silence, particularly in the Senate.

Given Mitch McConnell's visibility, you'd almost think he's already the Majority Leader -- which suits the Democrats perfectly, because come election day they, like Obama, want it to look like Republicans have controlled the Hill and presided over two years of unprecedented economic disaster. What Obama may not yet realize, however, is that they've got his head on that chopping block too. It suits Harry Reid to blame the White House for nixing a bipartisan agreement, because it miraculously positions Dems as the moderate centrists in a battle between two extremes.

[Janet]

Boehner seems hung up on the balanced budget amendment.

He's always been more attuned to the tea parties than people give him credit for...he was a speaker at some of the smaller gatherings I went to early on. I don't know if that is why...but maybe.

[Ranger]

I'd love to see them pass the same bill but without a BBA.

Just part of the game. The BBA is the most popular item in polling right now, so adding it in makes it that much more painful for at risk Dems in the Senate to vote against the package.

[Jim Miller]

Going back to a previous topic: The Seattle TV stations have been telling us that (1) the FAA tax is not in effect and that (2) some airlines, for instance, Alaska, are passing the savings on, and other airlines aren't.

The stations are usually right about this kind of issue. (And the current temperature, and sports scores, and now I'm stuck for other examples.)

[peter]

Doesn't he know there are three branches of government, the Senate, the House, and the President? lun

[Dave (in MA)]

Porchlight: Heh.

[JM Hanes]

Ranger:

"The BBA is the most popular item in polling right now, so adding it in makes it that much more painful for at risk Dems in the Senate to vote against the package."

It also forces the Senate to actually cast their votes on it, instead of just tabling the bill as Reid did with the standalone version.

[Porchlight]

Love it, Dave (in MA)!

Everyone should go to Drudge right now and see it before it's gone....or some smart person could copy it here...

[Ignatz]

--The biggest problem that the Tea Parties don't seem to grasp is that you cannot win as the Party of No in a presidential election year!--

Shouldn't we reserve the exclamation points until they actually vote the way Mr. Silver, hardly an unbiased source, asserts they will?
After all CC & B, which contained a debt limit increase, already passed the house.

[Extraneus]

He really shows his true colors when someone has the temerity to deny him what he wants.

I can't wait to watch his face at the inauguration.

And if it's Sarah Palin being sworn in, I'm buying tickets and a pair of high-powered binoculars.

[Jane]

It seems to me the crisis is over. There was a bipartisan bill yesterday that Obama nixed. It's his baby now.

Charlie Gasparino is tweeting that Obama has been quietly warning the markets that there will be no default.

Of course he lies like a rug.

[Sue]

JMH,

With all due respect, we won in 2010 as the party of NO.

[Janet]

Yeah, I like the idea of a party of no....even retro no.
Let's go back & say no to some things that passed years ago that were horrible ideas.

[Clarice]

JMH--I cannot agree this time. The party of NO ? Or the party of no more reckless spending of money we don't have?

The party of yes we can shoved thru a stimulus bill which only stimulated their friends; an auto buyout with the same effect; ObamaCare which people are scared to death about.

In this atmosphere NO MAS looks to me like a winner.

[Ignatz]

Excellent column by Theodore Dalrymple at City Journal on the UK's "austerity".
Contains this wonderful line;

The legacy of Britain’s previous government, which expanded the public sector incontinently, is thus an almost Marxian conflict of classes, not between the haves and have-nots (for many of the people in the public service are now well-heeled indeed) but between those who pay taxes and those who consume them.

[Porchlight]

The biggest problem that the Tea Parties don't seem to grasp is that you cannot win as the Party of No in a presidential election year!

Why not?

[glasater]

Will this work Porch?

[Janet]

Money that citizens send in to reduce the debt isn't even used for that. What a pack of losers in Washington. Seriously...what a pack of losers.

[Carol Herman]

Lucky for Boehner, he's usually drunk by mid-afternoon.

As to the troubles we all have ... is that we all have politiicans who love pork barrels. And, they'll fight to the death before they have to give one of theirs up.

Sarah Palin "tweets" that Obama is a lame duck. While the stupid party will continue being stupid. They're all just politicians. Both sides haven't got an iota of an idea how to get out of this. It's like watching WW1 through binoculars.

[Carol Herman]

You want da' headline for da' day after?

Here it is:

They ran out of other people's money sooner than expected.

[Frau Steingehirn]

In 2006, the Dems swept in with a record of nothing but No! and Pelosi's promise of plans to lower gas prices, to drain the swamp and stick it to Dubya.

[maryrose]

I predict Boehner's plan wins because after watching Reid and Schumer primping self-righteously for the cameras today no self-respecting republican will vote for their pie in the sky plan with taxes to be added later.

[Jeff]

The TPC will not vote yes to a default as long as they get some cuts ...

[maryrose]

We win already because Obama gets no new taxes or in his deceiving words new revenue.

[Porchlight]

Thanks glasater!

Save it for posterity...

[Frau Steingehirn]

I bet Obama would sure like some smokes about now.
.........
"Lucky for Boehner, he's usually drunk by mid-afternoon."

Just because he mopped up in the bar at home?

[Dave (in MA)]

Il Douche is going to be envious if his prototype gets to have additional "revenue" and he doesn't.

[Another Barbara]

I bet Obama would sure like some smokes about now.

Yup, Frau. And I think it's a safe bet that he's having them too.

OT - Thanks for your nice comments, BR. I answered you on the last thread.

[Appalled]

JMH:

It also forces the Senate to actually cast their votes on it, instead of just tabling the bill as Reid did with the standalone version.

Is that right? Dang, Boehner is good at this.

Can anyone cite anyone other than Keith Hennessey for the proposition that Obama rejected a preliminary deal yesterday simply because of the pre vs post election day thing?

[JM Hanes]

""Republican presidential candidates should be nervous about the polls."

Let's have an anxiety attack over whether the weather will depress turnout on election day too, shall we? The GOP's low profile "lackluster" field actually looks more like a feature right now than a bug, to me. It's definitely not the target rich environment Obama was hoping for back when he tried to get the jump on campaign season. You know things have gone from bad to worse when he actually starts canceling Fundraisers. By the time the Republican field sorts itself out, King Tut's mummy will look like a fresher face than Obama.

This kind of polling, as a measure of persistence, interests me a lot more than the usual transient snapshots [emphasis mine]:

The majority of voters continue to favor repeal of the national health care law and believe it will increase the federal deficit at the very time the president and Congress are trying to find ways to make significant cuts in government spending. Voters also expect the law to make health care costs go up.

After all, 69% of voters believe greater free market competition between insurance companies would do more to reduce health care costs than more government regulation. If the government’s got to be involved in health care decisions, most voters think it’ll be cheaper if it’s states rather than the feds.

It looks like the 10thers may be making some real progress in the body politic.

[Mikey]

Allen West is a yes on the Boehner Plan. Boehner will get the votes because everyone realizes that beating Obama is priority number 1.

This debate makes me realize how out of touch many DC pundits are including many on the conservative side. We underestimated the capacity for Obama to self destruct. As a Mets and Jets fan I can relate.

[Ignatz]

--Can anyone cite anyone other than Keith Hennessey for the proposition that Obama rejected a preliminary deal yesterday simply because of the pre vs post election day thing?--

CNBC

[MarkO]

Depending on the question, I like being the party of NO.

[Extraneus]

As a Mets and Jets fan I can relate.

Heh. I feel the pain Mikey.

[centralcal]

Ditto, what MarkO said. Count me in the party of NO.

Dear God, why must we listen to the arrogant, petty, dictator in chief again during prime time tonight? Why?

[Porchlight]

It's definitely not the target rich environment Obama was hoping for back when he tried to get the jump on campaign season.

I agree. Targets are still foggy and shifting...and Obama can't generate enthusiasm. Eventually this will change as certain GOP frontrunners come into focus. But the longer this takes, the better.

[Jack is Back!]

I believe the reason Obama hasn't got a plan or doesn't even understand the Boehner plan or the CCB or Ryan's budget or any of the other plans to cut the spending, raise the ceiling, decrease deficits, etc is that Salman Khan has yet to make a 15 minute video explaining it all. The Won is lost without those neat little videos.

[glasater]

Reid mentioned during his and Schumer's presser that Eric Cantor had reneged on the compromise and wanted more money for the DOD.
Anyone read this anywhere? It's too new to be googled I think.

[Porchlight]

Dear God, why must we listen to the arrogant, petty, dictator in chief again during prime time tonight? Why?

If it helps, just think of how many voters he permanently loses each time he gets up and does a speech like this.

[Chubby]

((Dear God, why must we listen to the arrogant, petty, dictator in chief again during prime time tonight? Why?))

because he has to demonize Republicans again

[Extraneus]

He's talking again tonight? Don't his handlers know the old adage that familiarity breeds contempt? Surely that's what the polls are indicating.

[Clarice]

News flash on MSNBC. Obama to speak at 9 p.m. EDT tonight.

I hope he's resigning.

[Danube of Thought]

Only time I ever said no was when I misunderstood the question.

Of course, the questions always involved one vice or another.

[BB Key]

I wish the JEF would disappear like he did after the beer summit .... I recall he didn't have a presser for 8 months

[Clarice]

DoT, what a coincidence..Pshaw

[Extraneus]

That's what I heard, Clarice.

[Jane says obamasucks]

This is getting very interesting. I'm not sure they have the votes. I'm not sure JEF isn't going to decide to raise the ceiling all by himself. I am sure harry Reid has alzheimers tho.

[bio mom]

What sin have we committed to have to endure yet another Obama speech?

[Jack is Back!]

Isn't DirectTV great. Tonight I will be watching baseball on channel 726 through 736 or somewhere in that vicinity. If that gets boring I can always go to the Golf Channel, or Military or History or Food Channel. But there is no way in hell I am going near the MSM or the cable news networks before during or after 9pm.

[peter]

News flash on MSNBC. Obama to speak at 9 p.m. EDT tonight.

I hope he's resigning.

Funny!

[centralcal]

Why I just love Edmondesq's tweets:

edmondesq Donald Edmond

Hopefully from the East Room, not a highchair in the White House Nursery. RT “@NorahODonnell: President to address the nation tonight at 9p”

[Another Barbara]

But there is no way in hell I am going near the MSM or the cable news networks before during or after 9pm.

Unless Jane liveblogs it. That's the only way I'll participate. How 'bout it, Jane?

[Captain Hate]

Since Amy Winehouse liquidated all the dead pools maybe he's trying to give the economy a boost by having Meltdown Pools. Jobs saved and created UNEXPECTEDLY!!

Can you think of any other reason to watch it?

[cathyf]

NetFlix on the wii. $8/month, and we always have something worth watching.

(We used to have the $52/mo cable, one up from "basic", and there was never anything on worth watching. Then we went back to the $17/mo, and didn't really miss those channels. Now we have netflix and basic cable, and for $25/mo there is actually stuff on that we want to watch...)

[Thomas Collins]

Perhaps Obama is going to announce that he is bringing in Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith to cut a debt cap increase/spending cut deal.

[Dave (in MA)]

I wish the JEF would disappear like he did after the beer summit .... I recall he didn't have a presser for 8 months

I guess he really can't hold his beer.

[lyle]

I hope he's resigning.

Seem to me it would be more like abdicating the throne.

MFM hardest hit.

[bgates]

Let's go back & say no to some things that passed years ago that were horrible ideas.

That's why the Republican Party was formed in the first place.

Amendment 13: Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States

14: No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States

15: The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.

Party of No, Not, Neither, and Nor.

[Captain Hate]

Or maybe it'll be the JEF-TV drinking game where Vegas is setting odds for wagering on:

1. As I've always said
2. False Choice
3. Some say
4. Car in a ditch
5. Private Jets
6. Slurpees
7. Party of No
8. High Speed Rail
9. Green Energy

[centralcal]

Wonderful, bgates! And, inspiring.

[centralcal]

Oh, Captain, he has some new ones lately . . .

Left at the altar

On the dance floor without a partner

[Jane says obamasucks]

I'll do it AB, unless I get stuck at my meeting. I can't help myself. Plus what a scoop - to announce he is resigning!!!