Meanwhie, back at the Iowa Electronic Market, we see that the generic Democrat (presumably Obama, or a candidate to be named later) is given a 49.6% chance of victory. Nice to see the markets in sync.
In related Congressional news, the odds of Republicans controlling both the House and Senate after the 2012 election is priced at 53.6%; the Dems are given a 15.5% chance of controlling both. (To complete the grid, Rep House/Dem Senate is 15.1%; Dem House/Rep Senate is 12.7%; "Other" (a tie in the Senate?) is at 3.6%).