The Other Collapse

Set aside the stock market swoon - Gallup reports on the Obama rout.

Comments

[Ignatz]

I hope he's not troughing too early.

[centralcal]

This is one swoon, I can enjoy cheering on from the sidelines.

Oh, Ignatz, his supporters will hold their nose in the end and vote for their abysmal failure in chief, let us hope a significant portion of the muddle will not.

[Porchlight]

My worry too, Ignatz. Although I don't know what will bring him out of it.

[PD]

Although I don't know what will bring him out of it.

A swift resignation ought to lift those approval ratings.

[Sue]

If he gets low enough, he might get a serious primary challenger.

[Chris]

Nothing a little vacay, and paaartay, can't fix. Now, eat your peas!!

[Danube of Thought]

I've always bristled about poll questions inquiring about how the president is "handling the economy," as if the economy were something the president (or anybody else) could "handle." But while the question is absurd and unfair, it is with us to stay, and I am delighted that it is now being used to bludgeon this lightweight.

[Dave (in MA)]

Next month's malaise speech ought to fix everything right up.

[Ranger]

Just wait until the September 401(K) statements starting arriving. I see his numbers taking another hit in about 6 weeks.

[MarkO]

He's taking this vacation because after he loses he'll never be invited back.

[DebinNC]

Barack Obama and the Paint Your Wagon Election

[hoyden]

The President is terribly mishandling the economy. The Gulf Coast drilling moratorium; advocating for greater debt, higher taxes and more regulation; siccing the EPA on Texas. Those are just a few of the things where the JEF is handling the economy badly.

[Jack is Back!]

He is going this way without an embassy being taken over and hundreds of American's hostage. Instead we have a country being ransacked and millions of Americans hostage to his narcisstic incompetence. He isn't even wearing a sweater.

[Tom Bowler]

I've always bristled about poll questions inquiring about how the president is "handling the economy," as if the economy were something the president (or anybody else) could "handle.

DoT, I think the economy can be "handled" to the extent that an administration can throw a wrench into the works through over-regulation, which is what the Obama administration has done.

[huxley]

The Rasmussen Approval Index is definitely in new territory: a week solid of -22 and -23. Obama has dipped to -22 and -23 several times but never gotten stuck there.

It's about time. It seemed like that index was going to cycle through the teens for the rest of his term.

[Threadkiller]

--"..his supporters will hold their nose in the end and vote for their abysmal failure in chief..."--

I thought we were talking about prezophiles on the other thread.

[Porchlight]

Maxine Waters may be something of a bellwether. I think she's signaling to him that he'd better figure something out soon or "her people" will perhaps not be there for him at the polls in the numbers he will need.

[centralcal]

TK - are you accusing me of poor sentence structure? LOL!

[narciso]

The fact that Gallup has had him down to 39 twice, indicates one of the breakers have failed.

[huxley]

Maxine Waters may be something of a bellwether.

Further on the Raz index... Obama is losing support on the "Strongly Approve" side, sliding into low 20s and high teens.

Meanwhile "Strongly Disapprove" has plateaued in the 40-45 range.

Obama is losing the enthusiastic approval of core constituencies. The unemployment numbers for blacks and young people are horrific.

[NK]

Huxley-- I agree you are on to something. In a few weeks, when Independent voters focus on the new school year, the high cost of food and fuel, declining home values, the continued dead job market and no wage increases, Rasmussen will Show Obama to be consistently in Mid -50%s "Strongly Dissaprove", Mid-20%s Index negative; Gallop will have him stuck on 40% approval. THEN something BAD will happen, a stock crash, bank failures, or terrorist attack. Obama gets 45% of the popular vote, and blames redneck bigot voters. It's all baked into the cake.

[NK]

TYPO Alert-- Mid 40%s "Strongly Disapprove" (NOT mid50%s)

[Appalled]

Is there any correlation between Congress approval numbers and Obama's? (Is Congress on the same sort of trajectory?)

[huxley]

NK: That's a depressing thought. At least Obama loses next year in your scenario. I doubt there will be much rallying 'round Obama in a crisis.

I do have a bad feeling that there's some terrible shoe waiting to drop before the 2012 election.

[Porchlight]

He has to carry the white vote to win and get his minority constituencies to turn out in big numbers as they did in 2008. I don't know if the soccer moms & dads, having had their pockets picked over the last 3 years, are going to plunk for him again, and the minority turnout will be hard to repeat.

The bus tour is an attempt at reaching out to the white base in the "heartland" (which is also what Maxine doesn't like). It doesn't appear to be having any positive impact.

He's in a tricky spot. He told everyone last time that he would transcend race. So he can hardly say now "y'all are racist haters if you don't vote for me."

I think there's going to be something big coming on the amnesty front. And then he will really see the sleeping giant awaken. And Perry as gov of a border state can triangulate that issue like nobody's business.

[Chubby]

((A swift resignation ought to lift those approval ratings))

do you think Joe would be an improvement?

[Porchlight]

Slight correction. He lost the white vote last time, but won with huge non-white voter margins. This time I don't think he's going to see that level of minority turnout. Hence he has to do better with whites - if not actually carry them - to make up the difference.

[macphisto]

there's a closet full of them. the European markets are deader than Francisco Franco but don't know it yet because the signal hasn't made it from the brontosaur's body up the neck to its tiny brain yet. you'll have noticed that the Arab world has gone to shit. i gather than Iran will have nuclear bombs any day now to put on their missiles. Turkey apparently wants to revive the Ottoman Empire. Pakistan is collaborating with China, and has nuclear weapons. US anti-terror security is full of holes, and not taken seriously at high levels of government. the Administration is utterly corrupt on a level not seen since Grant and Harding, with billions funneled to favored corporations whose CEOs then shill for Obama and are appointed to Federal policy-making task forces and illegal arms funneled to Mexican drug cartels hostile to the Mexican government. and that's just Dad's shoes...don't rattle Mom's shoe rack.

[Chubby]

((Maxine Waters may be something of a bellwether. I think she's signaling to him that he'd better figure something out soon or "her people" will perhaps not be there for him at the polls in the numbers he will need.))

I can see the desertion as quite a possible scenario for a whole bunch of reasons. I think the last of the bitter clingers would be his self-righteous white supporters of the ilk of Garofalo.

[Captain Hate]

Duke & Duke dirty laundry receiving the airing it deserves: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/17/rick-perry-s-war-with-the-bushies-why-karl-rove-is-fighting-his-2012-bid.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedailybeast%2Farticles+%28The+Daily+Beast+-+Latest+Articles%29

[Stephanie]

One thing the democrats consistenly get wrong is the human reaction to outside forces. They like to peg voters into certain blocks and assume they will continue voting in certain patterns. They don't. First of all, they don't stay in those blocks - people are mobile. Second, as they move into different blocks, they are influenced by others that are already in that block and exposure to the 'others' will influence their behavior.

The upward mobility of black voters is a good example of this. We have had a large influx of middle class blacks in this county (which is predominantly republican) and the voting patterns are not sliding democrat compared to the numbers of blacks moving in. Some are still on the plantation, but the numbers suggest that many are changing their voting patterns.

Once your voters start reacting to your rhetoric as they move from one pegged constituency to another, 'hey he's talking about me,' it is difficult to get them to vote against their new circumstance.

[Ignatz]

--Is there any correlation between Congress approval numbers and Obama's? (Is Congress on the same sort of trajectory?)--

Here's a graph of congressional approval at RCP, appalled.

[(Another) Barbara]

For the JOM parents and grandparents who had to read endless Dr. Seuss books to the kids: (from a commenter at Daily Caller)

Another book I'm reading:
It is titled “Dr. Seuss 2011″:I do not like this Uncle Sam, I do not like his health care scam.I do not like these dirty crooks, or how they lie and cook the books.I do not like when Congress steals, I do not like White House backdoor deals.I do not like when they kick the financial can, I do not like this ‘YES, WE CAN!’I do not like their spending sprees. Why can’t they get it — nothing’s free.I do not like their smug replies, broken promises and corruption ties.I do not like this kind of hope. I do not like it — Nope nope nope!

[Chubby]

(A)B, I loved that!

[centralcal]

Ditto what Chubby said, AB! Some people are so damned clever.

[Porchlight]

One thing the democrats consistenly get wrong is the human reaction to outside forces. They like to peg voters into certain blocks and assume they will continue voting in certain patterns. They don't.

Stephanie, that's very interesting. We know the dims are in love with static analysis wrt tax policy, so why not voting patterns too?

[Sue]

The IDF and Shin Bet have retaliated. What took them so long? ::grin::

[Carol Herman]

Like routing "Jack Benny."

Obama, if he really drops off in getting re-elected, would take the Truman route "home."

While Obama right now has poor coattails. Which is probably a bigger fright to most democratic politicians up for re-election as well.

Should Obama stay on and win? Wouldn't that mean voters could split their ballots? Wouldn't that also frighten incumbents?

While, I just saw Iowa. And, what struck me is that Iowa is the republican's religious bulge.

Could hurt more than it helps?

Heck, if the religious zealots had won anything at all, Reagan would have more forcefully backed Bork. He didn't.

Who sez the republicans have gained all that much?

Wouldn't it make good business sense to also account for Dubya's popularity plunge?

[glasater]

ISTM that I read somewhere--Perry's main campaign guy was a student/acolyte or something of Rove's years ago.

Can't remember where I read that and sure do not remember names.

[Sue]

Twitter is atwitter...Obama has a primary challenger...Jon Huntsman. ;)

[Danube of Thought]

"I think the economy can be 'handled' to the extent that an administration can throw a wrench into the works through"

I agree. For the most part, legislative and executive action can only harm the economy, and often does. It can do nothing at all to help it apart from undoing past wrongs.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Sue-

Good one!

[Agent J]

Congressional approval; kind of like, we can tolerate and understand one teenager, but five at one time. Not so much..I do not look at the individual within either the house or senate, as much as what they do as a mob..I also think that a lot of it has to do with the dislike of the leadership. The mass of Americans dislike dip shit Harry, but yet we are stuck with his lack of action for another 15 months..if we dislike his leadership, or lack thereof, we dislike the entire Senate. FWIW

[Stephanie]

Porch: The key word is 'static.' One could say that progressives are stuck in a ditch.. ;)

[Sue]

Huntsman tweeted he believes in evolution and trusts scientists on global warming. He then invites you to call him crazy. So, to please Huntsman I am calling him crazy.

[peter]

I think Maxine H2Os is worried that Obama's swoon has coattails for all melatonin endowed politicians.

[Captain Hate]

Behold the work of the AoS morons: http://stutteringclusterfuckofamiserablefailure.com/

[Porchlight]

Stephanie, I have a Slurpee I'm sippin' on and I am not about to help them out. ;)

[Dave (in MA)]

All are not huntsmen who can blow the huntsman's horn
By the look of this one you've not got much to fear
Genesis 2.76

I'd call him half crazy, then.

[Sue]

On Huntsman...tweet says so, your 4 followers agree with you?

[narciso]

Carney, (DAve not the other one)yes he is his own Mini Rove,

[Porchlight]

About those coattails....

Senate Dems to WH: Stop sucking up all the campaign cash

(Politico via HotAir)

[Dave (in MA)]

Cap'n, it's more readable in camel case:
http://www.StutteringClusterFuckofaMiserableFailure.com

[narciso]

We prefer the Huntress, to the Huntsman, another brilliant John Weaver strategy, sarc.

[bolitha]

Porchlight, Maxine Waters' people will always vote for Obama no matter what.

[cathyf]

For the most part, legislative and executive action can only harm the economy, and often does. It can do nothing at all to help it apart from undoing past wrongs.

I beg to disagree. Government's core function -- the rule of law -- is extraordinarily valuable. Government is what ensures that you get paid for your work without having to undertake the huge expense of a private police force and army. Functioning rule of law creates huge disincentives for thieves and vandals, which means that far more people earn their own way rather than trying to steal other people's stuff. Government is what enforces contracts, so that even poor people can put out effort and industry and it's a pretty good bet that they will get what they earn.

Some people put their money in banks or buy stocks, and other people borrow money from banks or raise capital from the stock market. All of those people do this on the trust that the contracts will be enforced and laws followed. In a now-for-now transaction, the buyer gives the seller the money and the seller gives the buyer the product simultaneously, so there is little need for enforcement -- if the seller refuses to hand over the product the buyer refuses to hand over the money and vice versa. But when the buyer hands over money for something that is not going to be provided until later, they will only do so if they can trust that the contract will be enforced.

Without the government to provide the rule of law, huge swaths of wealth-creating economic activity simply will not take place.

So it's not just "get out of the way." The cronyism and corruption of the Obama administration is far more destructive of the wealth-creating industriousness of the populace than just the money directly stolen by them.

[Jane]

DoT, I think the economy can be "handled" to the extent that an administration can throw a wrench into the works through over-regulation, which is what the Obama administration has done.

I agree completely. BTW Tom any Perry sightings near you? I wanna come meet him.

[Jane]

do you think Joe would be an improvement?

I do. (Why is it whenever I post in one thread, I find everyone has moved to another?

Bambi better pay attention to Maxine waters. He may need to start some race riots before this is over.

[Sue]

bolitha,

I don't think they will vote republican, but I do think they might not turn out in numbers like they did in 2008.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Anybody need to see some blue on blue action?

Pelosi gets heckled from the left.

(Swiped from Drudge.)

[Stephanie]

Cathyf, and the government's inserting itself into the GM bankruptcy to circumvent existing law? How did that failure to 'get out of the way' assist in providing 'trust and faith' that the little guy can get a fair shake?

Or the government's putting large corporate CEOs, who are exporting their jobs (GE) on the government board responsible for job creation, (and demanding that we bow to their awesome! having done something! job creating initiatives) who are really throwing up roadblocks to suppress their existing and newer competition help the little guy get a fair shake?

Minimal (or no) intervention by the government works best because the fog of too many departments/boards/laws/regulations makes it easy to camoflage (sp) the abuse taking place.

Fewest laws/regs and government doing nothing to interfere beyond that works best. Each subsequent intervention results in a tipping of the scales in unseen and many times unexpected consequences for someone.

[glasater]

Thanks Narciso.

[Captain Hate]

Bambi better pay attention to Maxine waters.

Tammy Bruce is playing a clip of Allen West pointing out to Laura Ingraham how Maxine has been entrusted by the donks with keeping blacks feeling victimized and with El JEFe in charge, that makes her job harder.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Stephanie-

Just picking at nits, but Chrysler was the precedent. GM was Act II.

[Stephanie]

True, Mel, but GM was the 'sexual congress' that really laid bare the government/union incest. Not even a courtesy 'was it good for you' to disguise the act...

[narciso]

Janet Daley, has another followup to the previous pinata/ breaking of the Times, in the Telegraph:

Never likely to be outdone when it comes to Left-liberal sententiousness, the New York Times has produced a corker of a leading article on our very own riots. With a mock-judicious bit of throat-clearing, it begins on a tone of apparently unimpeachable even-handedness: “nothing can justify or excuse the terrifying wave of lawlessness, etc, etc … the perpetrators must be punished, etc, etc.”

But it then lurches into an absurd compounding of the irrelevant and the ill-informed. David Cameron, the paper intones, is “a product of Britain’s upper classes and schools”. (This is scarcely intelligible English: does it mean upper-class schools?) And so, presumably as a consequence of his class-induced ignorance, “he has blamed the looting and burning on a compound of national moral decline, bad parenting and perverse inner-city subculture”.

[Janet]

The Long & Whiny Road.

[Melinda Romanoff]

For me it was the "rape of the Chrysler bondholders", wiped out for full funding of the union's coffers. The State of Indiana, repping the Teacher's Pensions, took that one to SCOTUS, and lost. The ruling was amended so as to prevent precedent.

Got me way, way wee-wee'd up.

[Stephanie]

I'd forgotten about that - what with the latest Chrysler/Fiat mess. I bow to your early skills at identifying the pedophiles in their exploratory phase while they were still cloaked in their awesome parenting skills.

Nowadays, the nanny state doesn't even bother cloaking and posts their dirty pics on the court docket whilst planning on their next scout jamboree. ;)

[Melinda Romanoff]

Stephanie-

No skills, just immersion training due to my location.

[narciso]

And then Chrysler has the nerve to take out an ad, congratulating itself for the generosity rendered to them, chutzpah it's what's for dinner

[cathyf]

Gee, Stephanie, hurt my feelings by not reading all the way to the end of my interminable posts! ;-) So I'll just repeat my last sentence:

The cronyism and corruption of the Obama administration is far more destructive of the wealth-creating industriousness of the populace than just the money directly stolen by them.

[Extraneus]

Just a standard shakedown by Maxine and the black caucus. They want to be getting theirs involved in formulating the big new jobs plan.

[Uncle BigBad]

Melinda
I don't understand why the Chrysler bondholders haven't sued. Is it because they signed an agreement not to? If so, what would induce them to do that?

[Danube of Thought]

Cathyf is correct; I defer to her assessment and stand corrected.

"He [Huntsman] then invites you to call him crazy."

He's not crazy. He just makes the skin of all sensible men crawl.

Think of Jimmy Carter: crazy? Of course not. Skin crawl? Who can deny it?

And so it is with Huntsman. Who disappears first, he or Santorum?

[Stephanie]

Heh. I read all the way through. I just objected to your idea that the "Government's core function -- the rule of law -- is extraordinarily valuable" since that sentiment is, to me at least, not operative and hasn't been for some time. When a citizen is unintentionally breaking rules and regulations by simply going about their daily lives, the government's core function is not valuable - but an impediment.

[MarkO]

Other than the smartest President ever, who else really talks like this?

"way wee-wee'd up"

I consider myself rather well-versed in slang, invective and, of course, swearing. This sounds like Pee Wee Herman.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Uncle BB-

They did sue, and they lost.

That Wiki I have not vetted in the whole, because the WSJ article I would like to link to is behind "The Wall".

[cathyf]

Hey, the term "rule of law" is a term of art. From Wikipedia:

The rule of law is a legal maxim that provides that no person is above the law, that no one can be punished by the state except for a breach of the law, and that no one can be convicted of breaching the law except in the manner set forth by the law itself. The rule of law stands in contrast to the idea that the leader is above the law, a feature of Roman law, Nazi law, and certain other legal systems.

The concept of "liberal fascism" (to which the Obama administration strives mightily) is a rather precise insult in this case.

[Rick Ballard]

"I hope he's not troughing too early."

Ignatz,

I don't believe that we're actually in sight of the trough yet. My bet is that we'll be able to see the edge of his abyss in the last week of January when the BEA confirms the depth of the 'negative growth' of the GDP for Q4. The NBER will not be able to go beyond that point in holding off on calling the start of the Obama Recession and their call will only be a confirmation of what the public already knows without doubt.

The MFM has already tried the "second Reagan" meme with results as risible as the concept itself. The President is telegraphing his next pathetically weak punch with the announcement that TOTUS will deliver a load of gargle after the naked emperor's vacation in Martha's Vineyard. He's going to propose something unacceptable and then try out Harry S Truman's "do nothing Congress' tactic until polling shows him the stupidity of the error (I would imagine that the 23 do nothing Dem Senators up for removal may have some rather unkind words for the President as he stumbles forward with this idiocy.)

Just my opinion and I would love to hear someone plausibly explain what the source of the growth in GDP necessary to brake BOzo's skid off the edge might be.

[Extraneus]

Dear Mr. and Mrs. Sixpack,

If they'd have done what I proposed, you'd be rolling in dough right now. Houses, cars, flat-screen TVs, riches beyond your imaginings. Therefore, your only smart move is to throw the Republicans out so I can get total control of the government again.

Yes, I did have total control of the entire government for my first two years, and my lackeys did everything that I proposed, but it obviously wasn't enough to be able to undo the failed policies of the past. There just wasn't enough time...

Yes we can! Don't ever forget that.

Thank you,
Your President

[Ranger]

via Instapundit:

Bam’s great PR bus-t

“The bad news for President Obama is, he’s lost his mojo: The rock star of 2008 has become just another workaday politician. The worse news is, this is all he’s got.”

Seems to pretty much sum it up... but the rest is a fun read.

[Thomas Collins]

The global warming true believers are really reaching now. See LUN.

[Extraneus]

Heh.

It may not rank as the most compelling reason to curb greenhouse gases, but reducing our emissions might just save humanity from a pre-emptive alien attack, scientists claim.

[jimmyk]

That alien thing doesn't even make sense on its own terms. Why would they bother attacking if we're supposedly destroying ourselves? These folks need better writers.

[narciso]

Didn't they see that Charlie Sheen movie 'the Arrival' where the global warming was a plot to make our planet, more like the Aliens

[Jim Miller]

jimmyk - Aliens might attack us if they had a religious attachment to the environment.

As it happens, that's an underlying theme in David Brin's "Uplift" books, like "Startide Rising". There are even mentions in some of the books of intelligent races that were eliminated because they didn't live light on the land.

I'm not saying that makes any sense. In fact, I think that it is the weakest part of his Uplift universe, but I have to admit that it often propels the plots along, briskly.

[Extraneus]

You don't have to be a human to worship Gaia.

[jimmyk]

Sure, but that's not their plot. They say:

The authors warn that extraterrestrials may be wary of civilisations that expand very rapidly, as these may be prone to destroy other life as they grow, just as humans have pushed species to extinction on Earth. In the most extreme scenario, aliens might choose to destroy humanity to protect other civilisations.

So it's not out of fealty to Gaia, it's because somehow we threaten other civilizations even as we destroy our own.

I can make up my own scenarios: We need to really pump up the CO2, because it's possible that CO2 is toxic to some aliens, and when they try to attack us they all fall dead. Hey it's unlikely, but you can't be too careful.

[bgates]

The rock star of 2008 has become just another workaday politician.

He wishes. More like the rock star of 2008 has become the rock star of 1966, as seen in 1984.

David St. Hubbins: We say, "Love your brother." We don't say it really, but...
Nigel Tufnel: We don't literally say it.
David St. Hubbins: No, we don't say it.
Nigel Tufnel: We don't really, literally mean it.
David St. Hubbins: No, we don't believe it either, but...
Nigel Tufnel: But we're not racists.
David St. Hubbins: But that message should be clear, anyway.
Nigel Tufnel: We're anything but racists.
*****
David St. Hubbins: It's such a fine line between stupid, and uh...
Nigel Tufnel: Clever.
David St. Hubbins: Yeah, and clever.

[bgates]

It may not rank as the most compelling reason to curb greenhouse gases, but reducing our emissions might just save humanity from a pre-emptive alien attack

On the contrary. That's the most compelling reason they've ever provided.

[Threadkiller]

Stonehenge was in danger of being crushed by a dwarf.

[Threadkiller]

"In the most extreme scenario, aliens might choose to destroy humanity to protect other civilisations."

That explains what is happening in southern California emergency rooms.

[Soylent Red]

As long as bgates has led us to "Spinal Tap" quotes that seem oddly relevant to the Obama Administration, I give you...

***

David St. Hubbins: Well, I'm sure I'd feel much worse if I weren't under such heavy sedation.

***

David St. Hubbins: [talking about Nigel] I'm tired of sticking up for his intelligence.

***

Tommy Pischedda: Excuse me... are you reading "Yes I Can"?
Limo Groupie: Yeah, have you read it?
Tommy Pischedda: Yeah, by Sammy Davis, Jr.?
Limo Groupie: Yeah.
Tommy Pischedda: You know what the title of that book should be? "Yes, I Can If Frank Sinatra Says It's OK".

***

and then, of course...

David St. Hubbins: [singing] Big bottom, big bottom / Talk about mud flaps, my girl's got 'em!

[rse]

Rick-

Isn't that part of today's nondeportation order? Given the state of the election laws in each state and who is allowed to vote and how DOJ has been staffed, is it not possible we are about to have an election that is about the ability of parasites who take from the coffers to choose who sets the rules?

In all 3 branches of govt, not to mention locally?

[pagar]

Actually, there is another collapse apparently on the way.

"SEATTLE – Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna today announced that his office is suing ReconTrust Company, a subsidiary of Bank of America, for conducting illegal foreclosures on thousands of Washington homeowners."

http://livinglies.wordpress.com/2011/08/18/wa-ag-sues-recontrust-boa-for-illegal-foreclosures/

Wonder what effect this will have on the market?

[Bill in AZ sez it's time for Zero to resign]

"Just my opinion and I would love to hear someone plausibly explain what the source of the growth in GDP necessary to brake BOzo's skid off the edge might be."

Already been 'splained to us, Rick. Foodstamps.

[Threadkiller]

But, but, this one goes to eleven.

[Ignatz]

--Just my opinion and I would love to hear someone plausibly explain what the source of the growth in GDP necessary to brake BOzo's skid off the edge might be.--

Rick,
One slightly plausible note I saw yesterday somewhere [probably RCM] was that private GDP has actually been doing better than the overall GDP number as porkulus's winding down has been a large component of the dismal GDP numbers. Now that's only one small data point so it's not likely to make a lot of difference but it was something I hadn't realized or read anywhere else.

[Rick Ballard]

Ignatz,

I saw that piece. I don't believe that it was intentionally misleading but it didn't make any attempt to identify the probable effect of the reduction of government transfer payments (the expiration of the EUC benefits). Velocity remains close to zero with most of the very small increase in consumer credit activity limited to student loans. I don't know whether Congress will extend the FICA holiday which is set to expire at year end but the only increase in transfer payments which is occurring at the moment is, as Bill noted, in food stamps. There may be a bit in Medicaid as well but that's actually pretty much a null factor. As you know, GDP is Personal Consumption + Domestic investment + (Exports - Imports) + Government Consumption. Government spending is scheduled to be $137 billion lower next year and it takes $150 billion to move the GDP needle 1%. If the FICA holiday expires, that's another $150 billion which will not be available for consumption.

Then there's the not so little snag concerning the certain cuts coming at non-Federal level of governmental rackets.

I just can't make the numbers work for anything but zero to negative growth.