Is the Sony campaign contribution to Obama 2012 (due out in October 2012) going to help Obama? I say no.
First of all, we can ask President Kerry about the impact of Fahrenheit 911, which was supposed to crush Bush like a bug.
Secondly, I don't know what Afghanistan will look like a year from now but I doubt Obama will benefit from a renewed focus on our goals and the likelihood of achieving them. If the public walks out of theatres thinking "Geez, we killed Osama two years ago, what are we still doing there?" then Sony's attempted contribution will backfire. And if people are muttering "Great - two years later Osama's still dead and I'm still unemployed", well, yikes.
Finally, people aren't dumb - seeing a major Hollywood studio foist an extended Obama 2012 advertisement onto the public a month before the election may make Obama look pathetic and desperate (and Obama doesn't need Sony's help there).