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April 27, 2012

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Strains credibility.

You confront armed men, well boys, and turn and fire into the bushes? And hit someone?
===============

There are 360 degrees in 2 axes.

I don't know the facts, and I don't think the investigators do either.
=================

GMAX

Insta Pundit hightlights a comment from an insightful reader, was this one of the JOM crew? No matter I want to hightlight it. Think Dana Ward and then read this:

“My theory is Obama represents the supremacy (however short-lived) of the beta-male. The only people who think he’s a hep-cat are hipster betas and 60′s radical-nostalgia dopes (also perennial personal-risk-averse betas who never did anything bold on their own). It’s all projection, much like the rest of the way that demographic operates.”

Danube of Thought

Classic felony murder. Those boys in a heap a trouble.

GMAX

ZeroHedge has the information and drill down. Aint gonna be no economic miracle:

So much for the +3.0% GDP whisper number. Instead of printing at the expected number of +2.5%, the first preliminary GDP data point (two more revisions pending) came out at 2.2%, a big disappointment for a quarter which had a substantial boost from the weather. And while of the 2.2%, Personal Consumption came in strong - as expected, as it was precisely the factor most impacted by pulling in demand forward courtesy of "April in February", 0.59% of the 2.2% was an increase in inventories, something which was not supposed to happen as it means that the quality of the economic growth in Q1 was far worse than expected. Cementing the ugly composition of Q1 GDP was fixed investment which added just a paltry 0.18% - this is the number which is critical for ongoing cashflow generation and unfortunately, the very low print means that growth outlook for Q2 is now even worse than before and we expect economists will promptly trim their already bearish predictions for Q2 GDP. Finally, government "consumption" subtracted just 0.6% from the total number, a decrease from the 0.84% in Q4, which means that once again the government is starting to become less of a detractor to growth - a dagger in the heart to anyone who claims there is "quality" in GDP growth. And the number you have all been waiting for: At March 31, US Debt/GDP was 100.8%.

Harold

Strains credibility:

This case emphasizes that "warning" shots are lethal force.

If this investigation was done correctly, one assumes that the authorities determined the shooters were justified in using lethal force when they fired their rifles. While it's a gross violation of gun safety Rule 4, that the shooters attempted to make their shots less lethal by firing "into the bushes" and hit a another perpetrator is indeed an accident, but evidently not an illegal act.

Captain Ned

360 by 2 is on point.

No one will ever know with certainty exactly what happened that night. Prosecutors don't like to go to trial with squish.

What do I know?  Less than you do.

OK, on further review, 3 axes. Whether they remember it or not, they heard something in the bush.
==============

I know nossing

Distance between shooter and Summer rapidly, exponentially, decreases the likelihood of a hit.
=============

BR

OT - absolutely beautiful new release by Benny Mardones, "I've Got You." Not on Youtube yet, last I checked.

Perhaps unconsciously.

I'll half bet the shot was in self-defense.
==================

bunkerbuster

So much for "an armed society is a polite society''
Now that every one of the myriad needless shooting deaths in America is a potential contributor to the white-power narrative, Tom's busy assembling a case for out-of-control firearm abuse -- albeit unwittingly...

Danube of Thought

"rapidly, exponentially, decreases the likelihood of a hit."

I think it's directly, but linearly instead of exponentially, isn't it?

Strawman Cometh

Burglary is polite in your world, bubu?

And you failed to work in "identity-" into your 2nd paragraph.

iqvoice

Again, an article that is short on important details.

It seems (to me at least) implied that during the confrontation, the boys were brandishing weapons. The men responded by demonstrating that their rifles were loaded.

I agree with others here that firing warning shots is always the wrong idea, but in the case it seems like the purpose of the warning shots was to de-escalate the confrontation by demonstrating overwhelming force. 99 times out of 100, there wouldn't have been anyone hiding in the bushes.

I am surprised that charges were not filed, which is what leads me to the above conclusion.

Walter

Moral of the story?

Don't carry guns when you are engaging in youthful hijinks like the time-honored teen tradition of raiding vacant houses. *

Shame all around, though. You almost feel as bad for the shooters as for the girl's parents.
_________________
* We've got a vacant house in the neighborhood (unrelated zoning issues & the market have prevented a teardown as yet). Local high-schoolers broke in and used it as a hangout for a while.

When we went in to clean it out and seal the openings, we found they had brought in an antique ashtray, their own trashcans, and one of them actually had left her knitting on a shelf. Led to fewer hard feelings.

Harold

bunkerbuster: Given that we're just coming off a 30 year peak of gun control starting at the Federal level in 1968, and of course it goes back much further in the South, I don't think it's accurate to say we have "an armed society". And Alabama is worse than average because it's still a concealed carry "may issue" state, although in practice it's said to be close to shall issue. Except that the county sheriff evidently can also add whatever restrictions he pleases if he chooses to issue a "qualified" license.

Unless and until it is perceived that "enough" people are armed, the "armed society is a polite society" maxim isn't going to apply.

Captain Hate

Now that every one of the myriad needless shooting deaths in America is a potential contributor to the white-power narrative

Is this a quote from multiple Law and Order episodes?

iqvoice

DoT, the volume of a sphere increases with the cube of the radius, so I would think "exponentially" is the correct word.

Danube of Thought

You're right, iqvoice. I was assuming that the shot would necessarily be filed horizontally, but of course that's not true.

Danube of Thought

The notion that this episode proves anything at all about an armed society is even dumber than bubu's usual fare.

iqvoice

A corollary: The volume of the bubu increase with the square of the stupidity of his comments.

I R A Darth Aggie

Hey, it's justice for Trayvon.

What?

But now I wonder which is pertinent, volume or S.A?  I think S.A.

Well, thanks, iq. The surface area of the sphere increases with the square of the radius, still exponential.
===================

Walter

I'd think that the circumference is more relevant than surface area in this case. Wouldn't the path of a bullet be fairly straight over the first hundred yards or so? OTOH, the chance of another object (or person) intercepting the path increases with the volume/area. From a firearms safety approach, shouldn't one assume a linear relationship for short distances and uncluttered sight lines? And remember to shoot up or down rather than in the plane if you really don't want to hit something valuable?

Danube of Thought

"Wouldn't the path of a bullet be fairly straight over the first hundred yards or so?"

Yes, but it needn't be a horizotal path. For some reason this moron chose to fire in the only plane where there was any risk of strking a person.

iqvoice

I was thinking volume was most relevant, since the bullet could theoretically end up anywhere within the sphere where the radius is the maximum possible range of the bullet.

But you are probably right to use the surface area, since what we are concerned with is the maximum possible surface area of a sphere defined by how far the bullet actually went, not how far it could possibly go.

Does that make sense?

Walter

Also, we cannot ignore the racist approach of the FL prosecutor. Does anyone truly believe that Z would have been charged if he did not come from a Black/Hispanic background? It's a win-win for race-baitors.

xbradtc

1. We're really only dealing with a hemisphere, aren't we?

2. I do believe I was the first to raise the possibility that the teens would potentially face jeopardy from a felony murder rule.

3. **takes modest bow**

I know we've got mathematicians here.

Heh, iq, how diverting we are. I think it is S.A. because once having passed through a certain point in the volume those points no longer add to the exponential increase. Surface area delineates all the possibilities, even as it increases as the square.
===================

Why Do All Tea Partiers Look Like Ron Gardenhire?

Tom could post a thread about recipes for Apple pan dowdie and we would see the same responses.

Race baiters/hustlers
White Hispanic
Obama
I was wait listed at the school of my choice. Ultimately my spot went to someone else because of affirmative action and then as an undergrad I watched other people majored in easy subjects which ain't fair.

iqvoice

Right you are, Judith Curry linker.

But no 'lol's for my bubu comment? I thought it was one of my better efforts.

Hence, my argument that the shot was directed, perhaps unknowingly.

I'll bet we've got a mathematician here who could calculate the odds of hitting the girl with a truly random shot, knowing the distance, or radius of our sphere. The odds past a few feet are so desperately small that a 'random' 'warning' shot would hit this victim that I become skeptical.
===========

Danube of Thought

I do believe I was the first to raise the possibility that the teens would potentially face jeopardy from a felony murder rule.

TM mentioned it in the initial post, and I did so at 9:23.

It's surface are, and it's an inverse square relationship because the shot could have been fired at any downward angle as well as any upward one.

cboldt

-- The odds past a few feet are so desperately small that a 'random' 'warning' shot would hit this victim that I become skeptical. --


Quite a few accidental shootings, and it is almost common knowledge that the eye attracts shards of glass like a magnet does iron.

paint the bullseye after you shoot

-- I'll bet we've got a mathematician here who could calculate the odds of hitting the girl with a truly random shot --


The size of the target matters too.

Self defence.  Justifiable.

Look, you've got an armed man(boy) in front of you and even if all you want to do is snort and paw the ground, unconscious cues, aural or visual, can direct the bellow, even if you don't know it.
=================

Walter

At most we have a quadrant. If as Kim originally pointed out, the shooter consciously or unconsciously chose to fire horizontally, we are limited to an arc. Given that, distance increases Summer's safety only linearly except to the extent objects more solid than bush branches exist in the relevant segment.

--The guy is probably one heck of a duck hunter--hitting the source of a rustling branch at night from a boat t'aint easy.

Scratch coffee cake yestiddy.  Who needs recipes when baking?

lol, iq, now where's my apple pan dowdie?
==============

iqvoice

For the sake of banality, it's not linear. Thought problem: does her chances of getting shot increase or decrease if she is standing versus lying flat?

I think we can all agree (even bubu) that warning shots are a bad idea.

However, if in this case it was a choice between a warning shot and actually shooting one or more of the teens standing in front of you, because they are brandishing weapons at you (including a purported handgun), what would you do?

Danube of Thought

For the sake of banality, it's not linear

For a target of a given area (standing, sitting or lying flat), if it is also given that the shot must be fired horizontally then the probability of a hit decreases linearly with the range.

Neo

I see the Don Surber has hung it up after 7 years of blogging.

He went "dark" Wednesday afternoon, then posted a "Goodbye" today.

Dueling?  Well, they had codes not common sense.

Monstrously foolish to fire a warning shot when facing someone armed. That gives the self-defense potato to the other guy.
====================

iqvoice

Re: monstrously foolish.

From a legal standpoint you are absolutely correct.

So why do TV programs always have people firing warning shots? I think there must be something about the audacity of firing the first shot, (especially if is fired in righteous anger) that can have a cowing effect on the guilty-minded.

(At least among those who are capable of feeling guilt, like say young skulls full of mush, some of who are hiding--- a clear sign of a guilty conscience.)

Jack is Back!

Something similar happened in our county last weekend.

A guy and his girl friend were camping out at one of our shooting preserves - hunting feral pigs. He wakes up, hears something in the bushes, sees what he thinks is a pig and shoots. Hits his girlfriend in both upper legs - she was taking a sanitary break, you might say.

She is in critical condition at the local hospital.

But shooting accidents happen regardless of the intention of the shooter. If the DA in Alabama does not have this right as a prosecutable criminal case in the minds of the girl's family then they can puruse a wrongful death civil suit, correct?

Danube of Thought

I guy who shoots his wife because he mistakes her for a pig is in a world of shit.

I can't stand it.

Who is that pig you shot last night?
================

Captain Hate

So why do TV programs always have people firing warning shots?

Because the scripts are written by people with no firearm training.

Walter

Were I defending the shooter in a wrongful death civil case, I'd look for some version of assumption of the risk of being shot when one engages in an armed criminal activity. Seems an inherently dangerous activity.

It might not help in CA (where burglars have sued over dangerous premises), but AL is less (more?) enlightened.

daddy

Jane, TC, Rocco, Dave,

How!

Heapum' big news.

Great Spirit say Princess Elizabeth Pocohontus Warren speak with forked tongue.

She tell Harvard she Native American. She tell Harvard she blood brother of Cherokee and Delaware Tribe.

She lie.

She no American Indian any more than Indian Chief Ward Churchill.

Jane. You go-um on War Path on Radio Show now.

Jack is Back!

DoT,

It was at night:) But you have a point.

OT: Regarding Rove's Electoral Map.

The lean Republicans seem more sure things than leaners and the lean Dems seem to be more battleground where the economy will definitely be the order of the day. I thnk the Wisconsin recall election results will be very telling.

Walter

Complicatig factor: ongoing Federal investigation (LUN).

It may have been illegal for either group to have guns.

henry

JiB, WI is probably lean Dem right now -- and should move to toss-up by Labor Day. Rove is looking at PPP polling.

Uncle BigBad

Daddy,

Well, she is from Oklahoma. By the way, just how big is the American Indian vote in Massachusetts?

matt

Another oops by a global warming advocate. LUN

matt

there are several tribes of the Ka-Si-No located in the area.

daddy

Good news for the uncontrollable, undependable, unabashed liars and adulterers among us!

Megyn Kelly just had on a Psychiatrist to tell us why he thought it was okay for John Edward's to be screwing around on Elizabeth even when she was dying of cancer.

The shrink, Dr Keith Ablow's, closing comments to Megyn:

"His (Edward's) adult daughter seems really on his side and to really feel like they have a special bond. Is she just fooled by him? Was Rielle Hunter truly fooled by him? Is he gonna' be a terrible dad to his young daughter? Listen, these stories are long. If that little girl turns out to be the first female President of The United States, and I hope it doesn't take that long by the way to have a first female President of the United States, we're going to feel dumb, we're going to say "You know what, wait a second, I guess they were supposed to have her. Look at what she's became."

WooHoo!

I wonder, if under that new Egyptian Islamic Law, if that also allows me to bang the neighbors wife during that 6 hour period after she's dead, or do I only get approval from Dr Ablow if she's still breathing while whoring around?

Remember at the end of that movie The Wedding Crasher's, how they started hanging out at Funerals? I think I've got an exciting idea for a screenplay:)

Imam's and Dr Ablow, can we have a ruling please?

Strawman Cometh

Mass hockey fans are demoRats? Who knew.

Rob Crawford

So much for "an armed society is a polite society''

So much for the possibility buub is capable of thinking beyond the surface of ideas.

Rob Crawford

So why do TV programs always have people firing warning shots?

Because scriptwriters make journalists look informed.

lyle

Anyone care to take a reasoned guess at the good doctor Keith Ablow's political inclination?

Annoying Old Guy

Math minute:

For risk of being shot, if you assume the shot must be at the correct height, then risk decreases linearly with distance. If you take height in to account, it's the surface of the sphere at the distance of target, which is proportional to the square of the distance. These are both polynomial terms, not exponential. The size of the target doesn't matter because you're looking at proportional risk and that size cancels out.

Also, in 2 axes, there are 4π steradians, not 360°. Three axes requires a more than 3 dimensional space and so is unlikely to be applicable to this situation.

Jane (Better a crate than a plate)

LOL Daddy,

Now she is distributing a video to all the cable access stations. She will be shown on my network How dare she?

Dave (in MA)
Mass hockey fans are demoRats? Who knew.
WTF is wrong with people? My reaction to the goal was to hit the "Last" button as soon as I saw it go in the net and put on the Sox. The B's are still the Stanley Cup champs for a few more weeks.
lyle

Remember at the end of that movie The Wedding Crasher's, how they started hanging out at Funerals?

Harold and Maude predates this by at least three decades.

daddy

I suppose the nice thing about banging dead chicks is we won't have to pay for their contraception.

Win Win?

Ignatz

Haven't read this thread closely but here is
info on bullet trajectories.
A bullet's trajectory is always a parabola the length of which is wholly dependent on the velocity of the bullet, given a horizontal shot in level terrain.

daddy

"Who is that pig you shot last night?"

That was no pig, that was Putin's wife.

daddy

Jane,

On air you might consider calling her Elizabeth "Ward Churchill" Warren.

That might have a chance to stick, tho' I'm sure the collective JOMer's here could come up with better nicknames for Big Chief Elizabeth.

BTW, I think "Big Chief Elizabeth" was actually the moniker used for Queen Elizabeth by Powhatan back in early Jamestown days.

daddy

And just for interest, when you enter "Putin's Wife" in the google image search, look what the heck pops up.

Way, way different than when you enter Obama's Wife or Sarkozy's Wife.

CC, If you're at the office, don't click.

narciso

Yes, but when you think of those of at least part Cherokee, Jeanne Tripplehorn and Megan Fox come to mind, not Red Liz Herring.

Annoying Old Guy

Ignatz;

The path of a fired bullet is a parabola in a vacuum. It's different in an atmosphere because of air friction which slows the bullet. If you look at the specifications for ammunition you can see charts for the speed at different distances from the gun so it is measurable.

daddy

Elizabeth Wampum?

Elizabeth "Sitting Bullshit" Warren?

Last Of The MoHarvardans?

mojo

Stupidity is the only universal capital crime.

Expertise, ain't it great?

Hah, hah, thanks AOG. At least I got the surface of the sphere right and at least started out with two axes.
===========

Roscoe P. Soultrane

Perhaps the DA relied on the ancient Tibetan philosophy of "Don't start nothin', won't be nothin'".

Dave (in MA)

Daddy, Mrs. Pooty-Poot has something of a Rodhamesque physique, especially below the knees.

Dave (in MA)

Howie Carr, the Herald columnist with an afternoon radio talk show, has as of today started referring to her as "Pocahontas" instead of his usual "Granny".

Beasts of England

ExtraordinarilyLongName@11:50 - considering all the variables and deploying my unrivaled knowledge of physics, metallurgy, ballistics, meteorology (bet y’all didn’t consider that discipline), orbital mechanics (ibidem), statistics, and Baldwin County proper, the precise answer is: that dawg won't hunt.

Cecil Turner

Classic felony murder. Those boys in a heap a trouble.

The Alabama murder statute appears to ascribe to the agency theory (i.e., it requires a participant do the killing in order to qualify):

(3) He or she commits or attempts to commit arson in the first degree, burglary in the first or second degree, escape in the first degree, kidnapping in the first degree, rape in the first degree, robbery in any degree, sodomy in the first degree, any other felony clearly dangerous to human life and, in the course of and in furtherance of the crime that he or she is committing or attempting to commit, or in immediate flight therefrom, he or she, or another participant if there be any, causes the death of any person. [emphasis added]
The way I read that, one of the boys had to do the shooting for felony murder to be charged.

archie goodwin
Ralph L

From the Boston Herald article:
He added that finding Native American lineage is not always easy: “Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama claim to have Native American heritage, but we were never able to find evidence of that, and in both cases we traced their ancestry fairly thoroughly."
Not easy because it's not true. But they only went back to Warren's great grandparents, which isn't very far. She still could be a small sliver of an Indian.

dk

"I'll bet we've got a mathematician here who could calculate the odds of hitting the girl with a truly random shot, knowing the distance, or radius of our sphere."

Well, I'm far from a mathematician but you don't have to be for this problem. The issue is the assumptions you make.

For instance, the shooter won't be aiming behind himself or to his extreme left or right. Will they be aiming horizontal?

assuming a distance of 200 feet and a shooting arc of 30 degrees and that the shooter will be aiming horizontal and that summer as a target is apprx 2 feet wide.

360/30 is 12
the diameter of the circle is twice the shooting radius so 200*2*3.14 is 1256
12/1256 is 104.66
2/104.66*100 is
1.91% or a little more than 50/1 that you will accidentally hit summer. This is linear
so at 100feet 25/1 at 400 100/1

This is assuming that the shooter always aims horizontal. If the elevation angle becomes random then it is a LOT less likely that this was accidental.

I personally don't think it was random. WTF would you aim horizontal for a warning shot.
Fire into the water or over their heads. But this could never be proved one way or the other so hence...no charges.

If I was the DA I would file charges just to sweat them. I think it sets a bad precedent to simply let them walk. The odds are that this was intentional even though it could never be proven.

lily rowan

they only went back to Warren's great grandparents

They only need to go back as far as the first immigrant to America. Great grandparents would be born mid- late- 19th, I'm guessing. Really huge immigration waves from 1850 to 1925 or so. Not much immigration from 1790 to 1850. I wonder if "family lore" talks of colonial ancestry.

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