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August 14, 2012

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AliceH

I understand the "Duke and Duke" lingo from context, but where does it come from?

narciso

I mean look at the charts, does this make sense;


www.rove.com/uploads/000/0688/Romney-Obama 8.13 pdf

centralcal

Agree, DoT - buh-bye Chris Shays!

maryrose

I yelled out loud last night when I saw Rove's map had ohio leaning Obama. that is simply not true.As for Mandel and Brown I will be phone-banking during Sept.and Oct. for Mandel and he is now pulling even with Brown. Brown's wife no longer writes for our paper The Plain Dealer{Stealer} so that bias is gone. We need more east-siders to vote for Mandel and for the Cuyahoga County results to come in promptly on election night. There's always some kind of stupid hold-up or request to keep polls open longer. St. Louis does the same thing on election night. My brothers and sisters and I are going to have an election night party at my sister's house in Hinckley.Good times and loads of popcorn!

narciso

Trading Places, me and Captain, have used it
as shorthand for people in the RNC establishment, who think themselves too clever by half,

Danube of Thought

The Duke brothers were the characters played by Don Ameche and Ralph Bellamy.

Extraneus

Did Jane see that movie yet?

narciso

Well it was the school that gave us Woodrow Wilson, and Dean Rusk for balance;

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/15/nc-college-has-problems-with-definitions/

Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!

What movie?

I'm sure the answer is no. I may have been to 2 movies in the last 20 years.

Rob Crawford

I'm pretty sure Don Ameche hasn't been in a movie in the last 20 years.

Rob Crawford

I stand corrected -- Don Ameche *HAS* been in movies in the last 20 years. Four of them.

Impressive for someone who started in movies in 1935.

narciso

Didn't Thompson select Kloppy, initially, he started out well with welfare reform, but he backslid, not as far as Voinivich, but still,

NK

Trading Places -- was I believe summer 1983; a wickedly funny movie. Only downside was Al Franken playing a semi retarded Amtrak worker (character acting.) For men of a certain age there is a moment in that film involving Jamie Lee Curtis that is laser-printed on our memory.

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA

There are a couple of "hey girl" Ryan posters at this site. I like this one.
http://crayfisher.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/paul-ryan-hey-girl.jpeg

Sue

Apparently there has been a shooting at the Family Research Center. I say apparently because twitter is claiming there is very little coverage on the MSM.

NK

Ryan definitely wins the hair showdown with Biden.

jimmyk

Narc, what do you know about this TPer Yoho or something who beat a longtime R?

NK

JimmyK/JiB-- no Nadal at Open this year. Federer, Murray, Joker, Delpo semis just like the Olympics?

JM Hanes

"JMH---Her ancestor, convict Joseph HAINES of Gloucester was transported south for 7 years. Can't say I'm surprised."

Can't say what for either, can you, daddy? LOL!

Extraneus

I believe that's the World Trade Center.

Ranger

Sue, Hot Air is following it:

Breaking: Guard shot at Family Research Council headquarters

Since it appears this may have been an OWSer type attacking a right of center institution, there will be little discussion of it in the news.

Manuel Transmission

Catching up from last night.

Janet and daddy: Ha! Here is a riddle worthy of narciso.

Overlap the Venn diagram of my nom de pixel and the fellow from the era that daddy was talking about that arguably created the finest and most valuable transmission of the 18th Century and you get my highly anglicized Viking surname. My 1/4 non-Viking heritage actually is English, but sadly not from that wonderful carpenter.

Mark F. I didn't follow the link about our neighbors to the north, but it is a common sight at our nearby shopping centers to see a majority of BC plates in the parking lots. Good for them and thanks for the business!

Over the decades, it has been a common joke that whichever side of the border had cheaper gas would draw folks from the other side to save a buck or a Loonie.

narciso

That's more bgates or JiB's area,

narciso

Doubtful, it's set in Philadelphia, no, could be by the same architect,

MarkO

Fed wins the Open.

Dave (in MA)

Ranger, a HA commenter stole my thunder: "Brian Ross is currently googling “Tea Party + Family Research Council.”

AliceH

Really great post by Dinocrat. He brings back the Obama 'if not for marchers in Selma' bit and a few other strange things.

It's worth reading it all, but the last line is just perfect all on its own. Referring to Romney and Ryan:

"It’s more than a campaign; it’s an intervention."

matt

Leftist spokeshole James Rainey in today's LA Times declares that "Race is still a factor" in American politics.

So how the hell is it that we have have Black Panthers threatening the Republican National Convention, Russell Simmons saying that Romney will "destroy poor America", and Joey the Mook Biden talking about putting people back in chains? Are these not statements viewed almost entirely through the prism of race?

And somehow it's the Republican's fault every time.

NK

narc-- Trading Places' climatic scene takes place at the COMEX orange juice futures trading pits in the WTC. The Akroyd and Murray characters travel there from Phila. by Amtrak to switch the crop report to con the Duke brothers. Like I said above, a wickedly funny film; commodities brokers and traders don't come off too well in it.

henry

Narciso, set in Philly but exchange floor is NY Merc or something... that was the World Trade Center. (No buildings taller than City Hall in Philly in 1983).

NK. I don't know what Thompson will do. He did welfare reform in WI (and grew the program at the same time). He thinks the answer to everything is more government. That his coronation ended up a close primary will have little effect on him. I fully expect him to sit in a room with Lindsey Graham while they pick nits off of eachother. That said, Tammy Baldwin has a House voting record to the left of Obama, and Thompson will caucus with the good guys.

Dave (in MA)

A leftie shot up the Family Research Council because they hold the same position on marriage that Obama held throughout his political career up until the day 3 months ago when his handlers had him announce that he "evolved".

NK

Henry-- thanks. As long as Thompson is just an irritant like Graham but doesn't blackmail McConnell like the Maine Twins, it is what ist is.

derwill

Chiming in late on this, but I think that normally it is very hard to beat a sitting president. Not only does he have the advantages of the bully pulpit and having the tax payers fund big parts of his campaign, but it is simply human nature to resist change. The voters know what kind of president the incumbent is; they're not sure what kind of president the challenger will be. Therefore, they have to be not just a little, but a whole lot, unhappy with the incumbent before they'll jump ship and go with the unknown. Obama's 43% approval rating shows that a lot of voters are unhappy with him, but are they unhappy enough to dump him for the unknown?

If this were a normal election, I would say that Obama stood a good chance of eeking out a narrow victory. But is this a normal election? In 2008 the Dems thought they'd created a sea change in the body politic, from a right leaning country to a left leaning one, completely ignoring the fact that the media conspired to hide the truth about their hard Left flag bearer, allowing him to campaign as a moderate on an empty slogan of Hope and Change, so that the man the voters thought they were electing was not the man they got. Thus the sea change the Dems thought they had created was just a chimera.

With the rise of the Tea Party and the revitalization of conservative and classical liberal ideals, it could be that the real sea change will be occurring in this election. But if that is so, then the polls aren't showing it because they're using 2008 models that are based on a chimera in the first place.

tcb

"Trayvon II. Homies gotta stop punching people."

Luckily the citizen was an off duty Chicago cop who had his gun to save himself. Unfortunately for the other law abiding citizens who are not cops and not allowed to carry, they would be dead and Trayvon II would be still roaming the streets.

I am sure Crump is catching a flight up to Chitown right now to prep his lawsuit against the cop.

rse

And me, narciso. I looked long and hard and went to receptions as a prospective parent and not an alum and was told not to woory too much about the list of books read in the last year because they were counting everything between 2 covers.

The college is one of 4 beneficiaries of the Duke Endowment and that turbocharges many ideas that come with the money. Ross who left there after 3 years to head the UNC system during the Race to the Top integration of K-12 and higher ed to P-20 was known for taking the Reynolds Smith Foundation from architecture to acorn as the new emphasis.

I am afraid that great school is currently following the change the student and then change society paradigm.

Makes me sad. I got a tremendous education there that allows me to master new areas easily as an adult.

But I have never had much desire to be a servant-leader.

Clarice

I'm with JimmyK on the rove prediction..Don't believe it for a minute.
As for AliceH great aunt(!) love the Shrum takedown. Soylent has him pegged.

Some well paid and well known consultants have talked a number of candidates into the losers' circle, haven't they? If a candidate doesn't know who he is and what he stands for he deserves to have his pocket picked by these grifters.

narciso

I had forgotten that scene, and I do get a bit of a 'sucker punch' a dozen years on, when one realizes how iconic that structure was.

tcb

“Can you guess who it is? (Not Lady GaGa)”

NK

Derwill-- good summary, that's why I reject the 'landslide' talk. Bam's voting base is 45%, plus the solid blue electoral votes. I don't think Bam is moving many people beyond his 45%-- Raz consistently finds 45-45% LVs right now. say that's right, leaving 9% left, I think ABO wins that 9% by about 3-1 or 6.5% - 2.5% ie a 52%+- 47% or so total. A win for ABO, but no landslide. If everything goes WRONG for BAM, he could drop down to his 45% base, but still no 'landslide' of EVs.

Sue

Rove hasn't made a prediction that I'm aware of.

Rick Ballard

AliceH,

I don't believe pysch evaluations of Romney campaign moves are going to be productive. The campaign sees a benefit in running a 12 week rather than an 8 or 10 week campaign and if I were forced to guess, I would guess the predicate was disparity of available resources, forcing more early spending by the Obama campaign. It's an exploitation of a logistical gap which shows no sign of closing.

Extraneus

Normally I wouldn't trust my memory on it, but I was there before WTC opened (and rode the elevator all the way to the top), and I was there three days after it closed, when only that lowest level of mangled fork-like structures were left standing.

jimmyk

That's more bgates or JiB's area,

Yoho leads Sterns by 800 or so votes. From what I've seen, Stearns actually seems pretty conservative. From Politico:

But after the Republican wave of 2010, he ascended to chairman of the Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, a perch he used to prosecute high-profile and partisan inquires into Planned Parenthood and Solyndra.”

But maybe it's good to bring in the next generation.

Extraneus

was left standing.

I'm going to have to look that up sometime.

AliceH

Thanks, all. It's funny, but when I was very young, all my (surviving) Great Aunts were utterly ancient old crones usually found in rocking chairs - pleasant enough, but clearly they were in the triple digits, age-wise. There is obvious a difference in the number of years between generations. Must be. How else to explain it?

centralcal
A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in eight key battleground states.

GOP registration has also declined — but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats’ losses.

Meanwhile, registered independents are on the rise, increasing their numbers in those states by nearly half-a-million

.

NK

CC-- that is an important report. That actually suppports the worst case Bam scenario. Less enthusiastic, and FEWER Dems in battleground states.

GMAX

Raz consistently finds 45-45% LVs right now.

You do realize that Ras is using a D + 3 model at the moment, correct? Just for fun, do your analysis with an R + 2 model. Just dont giggle outloud if you are at work, it will cause people to think you are a little daft!

AliceH

RickB
--I don't believe pysch evaluations of Romney campaign moves are going to be productive--

I don't believe I said a thing about the political calculus. I certainly didn't intend to suggest any such thing. In fact, I was trying to point out what I found to be an alternative explanation for the influx of "Romney re-energized", one based on his character as opposed to any political move by the campaign.

I'm the first to admit I have zero "political strategy" insights or capabilities myself, so I pretty much restrict my musings to issues of competence, ideology, function, principles, and character.

sailor

Right on, Great Aunt AliceH!!!

bio mom

Electoral maps based upon faulty polls are worse than useless. Same for those using 2008 results. If Rove is using both together it is totally idiotic and should be trashed. Looking at historical evidence about presidential job approval numbers and their relationship to results is at least based upon something measurable with accuracy. Obama's job approval numbers per state has been carefully measured by gallup. When a 47 and below value is used to predict a state vote as not going to Obama an electoral map with Romney winning easily develops. Pick your choice of the best way to look at things.

Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!

Biden: 'Folks, Where's it Written We Cannot Lead the World in the 20th Century in Making Automobiles?'

centralcal

MFM in action (or inaction): CNN.com is not reporting on the shooting at FRC - nada, zip, nothing.

Meanwhile good old ABC thinks FRC is connected to James Dobson per their reporting.

Rob Crawford
Chiming in late on this, but I think that normally it is very hard to beat a sitting president.

Dunno. In my not-so-short lifetime, it's been 3-2 for two-term and one-term presidents. That excludes Nixon & Ford, because, really, how would you score them?

GMAX

CC

thanks for that link. I love how Politico tries to make it look like its bad news for the Republicans too? What did he not see the GWU Battleground Poll with Indys leaning by 10% towards Republicans?

The Democrats have left the party in droves, and a lot of them can not currently bring themselves to call themselves Republicans, but they aint voting for that guy who represents everything foreign to them and their beliefs. They vote Republican or stay home, and either way the Democrats are toast in probably all 8 of those "swing" states.

Sue

You know, I said I was going to shut up about Rove but what I'm going to do is go ahead and say something else. I did what no one else here did. I read what he posted along with the map. The trend line is moving in Romney's direction. He used polling data that was an average of 30 day polling. Some states had not been polled or had not been polled enough so he defaulted to 2008 or the last poll taken, until a new one comes out. He said that several lean Obama states would be taken out of the lean column and placed in toss up soon, like Ohio and Wisconsin. Several lean Romney would be placed in strong Romney, like Georgia and Texas. None of the polling data he used had Ryan included. He made NO PREDICTION. It is a starting point for him using a map someone here posted an app for last week. I used his map because I had looked at it yesterday. I could have easily gone to RCP, Jay Cost, Larry Sabato or any other pundit to show that the SMU professor wasn't so far off base by saying Obama has a slight lead. Rove went a step further. He said if Obama and Romney are tied right now, then Romney is ahead because of how they poll.

sailor

Well, Clarice's thought about Biden maybe being dropped has caught fire--now a Weekly Standard piece on the 22 day deadline for the DNC to drop Biden. Do any of you think, besides Clarice, that this might happen?

AliceH

About party registration - what exactly do they measure there? And how does that analysis handle states where one need not be "registered" in a specific party to vote in a primary?

I'm registered to vote in MO, and I used to be registered to vote in WI, but I've never been registered as an R, a D, or an I.

narciso

Well Ford was serving out the remainder of Nixon's term, so that would make it 4/2

centralcal

NK and GMax - glad you both liked and read the link. I hate math and anything involving math, am lousy at analysis, and a natural born pessimist.

So, all those considerations stated, I am trying to curb any enthusiasm until the election in November when RR wins by a fricken landslide and I can erupt in rapturous joy!

Janet

"It’s more than a campaign; it’s an intervention."

Great line, AliceH.

AliceH

Addendum: In WI I registered to vote 2 minutes before and 4 feet away from where I voted, which was how it worked then.

NK

GMAX-- we all have our opinions of how the data WILL move when the LV polling becomes more reliable in Sept-Oct, but for right now the data is the data (public data anyway), and how it will move is speculation. If you are that confident in your crystal ball, I urge to call a local bookie and make a BIG RR bet, because you'll get long odds.

Rob Crawford
now a Weekly Standard piece on the 22 day deadline for the DNC to drop Biden. Do any of you think, besides Clarice, that this might happen?

I think they'll decide 28 days from now they want to drop him, be reminded about the law, and throw a tantrum. Look for him to drop out "for health reasons" sometime in mid October.

narciso

Yes the trendline shows he went up about 10 to make up for the 50 he lost among leaners in
July, does that make sense.

Sue

narciso,

It does if he used straight polling and didn't make any adjustments, which is what he said he did. The polls in July were crap, as we all know.

narciso

Maybe this time it will work;


http;//www.rove.com/uploads/000/0688/Romney-Obama 8.13 pdf

Sue

The only polls he didn't use were internet polls.

Sue

How will Joe Q. Public view a switch from Biden to Hillary?

Rob Crawford
How will Joe Q. Public view a switch from Biden to Hillary?

A slightly more masculine ticket.

henry

In WI I registered to vote 2 minutes before and 4 feet away from where I voted, which was how it worked then.

It still works that way.

Frau Kuriositaet

Can't fool me. That's the Martian girl from "Mars Attacks" unless it *is* Chelsea. We'll still have to parse the meaning of "is."


NK

Would Hillary bail out Bam at this point? That's not so clear to me.

Janet

Birth Of A Talking Point: Obama (Again) Refers To Romney’s Economic Views As “Fairy Dust”…

What an idiot. He should stay as far away from the word "fairy" as he can....

narciso

It was so bad, Zombie Van Gogh cut off his other ear;


http://twitchy.com/2012/08/14/one-term-more-worst-piece-of-pro-obama-drivel-ever/

centralcal

Ha Ha Ha Ha, Frau. The hairdo is not quite the same, however the face and the dress look quite close!

sailor

I don't think Hillary would accept. She wants a "clear cut" attempt in 2016 and also she might, just maybe, think that O will lose.

NK

Baseball throwing, bicycle riding-- visuals Bam should definitely avoid through election day.

Sue

Did Mitt play sports? Can he throw a baseball? He really needs to be able to throw a strike when he throws out the first pitch at a ballgame.

Janet

Hah, Frau! We could start a whole, "Is this Chelsea?" meme...

Is this Chelsea?

NK

I agree sailor-- Hillary and Bam may lose, plus the Clintons want back the Dems Bam drove away, how does she get them back by hooking up with Bam. bam would have to give her Jar Jar Jarret power to convince Hillary!

Dave (in MA)

Not that there isn't sufficient yardage at the bottom to accomodate Rodhamesque cankles, but who says that's not lady gaga?
https://www.google.com/search?q=vogue+"lady+gaga"&tbm=nws&source=lnt&tbs=sbd

Sue

I think she would. She isn't ready to go yet so if she went as the sitting VP or as the woman who tried to rescue BamBam, I really think she would.

NK

Rescue Bam? IMO Bam would have to agree to get rid of Jar Jar and Moochelle and give Hillary all that power to get Hillary onboard.

sailor

Well, Sue, how do they get rid of Biden? Health problems? I don't think he would go quietly, but maybe I'm wrong.

Janet

Is this Chelsea?

Thomas Collins

NK, I think it's a no lose for Hillary. She's not going to be blamed for the loss, but if Obumbles won, she'd get all the credit. A no lose way to get Team Clinton up and running for 2016.

Of course, before accepting, she'd make Obama grovel and bow lower than he ever has to foreign potentates.

Sue

I have no idea how you get rid of him. Maybe have him go out and say we are in the 20th century and then claim he has health issues? Because he did that today, claim we can be the best in the 20th century in the auto industry.

narciso

You know until he did 'Red October' Baldwin was known for playing tow bit hoods and annoying Nyers, I didn't realize how much acting he was doing in the former.

NK

Dump Biden? easy; Axel/Plouffe bring out all of the docs that show the corrupt deals Biden cut for his cronies on Stimulus money, and SallieMae student loans (now in Newark Del) and Amtrak, he either retires in disgrace or with a nice Dem honorarium. That's an easy one to fix with blackmail.

Sue

Maybe Biden's speech writers are jacking with him. He would have no way of knowing if they were right or wrong, since he is a blooming idiot.

centralcal

Well, Sue, how do they get rid of Biden?

Sudden, mysterious, tragic death? Hey - they're Chicago thugs, don't put anything past them. Plus imagine the sympathy that would elicit, with the media wailing and moaning, re-elect for the memory of Joe!

Bill in AZ sez it's time for Obama/Holder murder trial in Mexico

"Well, Sue, how do they get rid of Biden?"

Don't tell him. I don't think he would ever know.

Frau Kuriositaet

The preezy would not be best, ahem, served by Hillalry! since the new car smell is gone.

He needs a Wow! replacement for Biden. Let's see, Debbie WS, Jan Shakowsky, Nancy Pelosi,
Elizabeth Warren, Baba Boxer,...

Ahhhhhhh, the perfect outside-the-box replacement for Biden is Kalamazoo native

HUMA ABEDIN

Talk about a game changer.

Thomas Collins

RC, I think Biden's a goner. Obama needs Hillary to have a chance to win. It'll be a tough pill for Obama to swallow, but I think he'll have no choice.

Frau Kuriositaet

Hillary! will never forgive me for messing with her name. She was named after Sir Edmond Hillary!

Frau Kuriositaet

TC, I would be surprised if Hillary! took VP. She would not like the warm "spit" role.

AliceH

I don't find the "Biden replaced" scenario at all plausible.

Thomas Collins

Frau, whether it's Huma or Hillary, hasn't it been reported that they are joined at the, . . . er, . . . hip?

DrJ

Kalamazoo native

You say that like it's a bad thing!

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Wilson/Plame