Mankiw vs. DeLong and Krugman on the CEA’s Real GDP Forecasts in Early 2009: What Might a Time Series Econometrician Have Said?
And from the abstract:
In early 2009, the incoming Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisers predicted real GDP would rebound strongly from recession levels. In a blog post, Greg Mankiw expressed skepticism. In their blogs, Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman sighed. Of course there would be strong growth, they maintained, because the recovery of employment would mandate it via Okun’s Law. Mankiw challenged Krugman to a bet on the issue, but there was no response.
Ahh, who's waxing nostalgic now? Let's go down memory lane to the initial Mankiw post, the sighing from DeLong and Krugman, and the 'feel free to put up or shut up' response from Mankiw.
And why is this all at my fingertips? In part because my mind is an impregnable fortress which no fact can escape (and few enter), but mainly because I chimed in back in 2009 and have engaged in occasional mocking since. Lest you wonder, the proposed wager was on the strength of the US recovery from 2008 through 2013; Mankiw will win handily, which is a bummer for Krugman and the US economy.