Annotating The Mankiw-Krugman Recovery 'Wager'

Greg Mankiw links to this abstract with the fascinating title:

Mankiw vs. DeLong and Krugman on the CEA’s Real GDP Forecasts in Early 2009: What Might a Time Series Econometrician Have Said?

And from the abstract:

In early 2009, the incoming Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisers predicted real GDP would rebound strongly from recession levels. In a blog post, Greg Mankiw expressed skepticism. In their blogs, Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman sighed. Of course there would be strong growth, they maintained, because the recovery of employment would mandate it via Okun’s Law. Mankiw challenged Krugman to a bet on the issue, but there was no response.

Ahh, who's waxing nostalgic now? Let's go down memory lane to the initial Mankiw post, the sighing from DeLong and Krugman, and the 'feel free to put up or shut up' response from Mankiw.

And why is this all at my fingertips? In part because my mind is an impregnable fortress which no fact can escape (and few enter), but mainly because I chimed in back in 2009 and have engaged in occasional mocking since. Lest you wonder, the proposed wager was on the strength of the US recovery from 2008 through 2013; Mankiw will win handily, which is a bummer for Krugman and the US economy.

Comments

[Clarice]

Is there someplace we can short Krugman? Shrewd investors want to know.

[Jack is Back]

How come those Amish barbers missed Krugman's beard?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Is there someplace we can short Krugman?-

And how about Robert Reich? H/T, Hit.

[Jim,MtnView,Ca,USA]

Libs consider themselves so smart, yet can be so stupid that it hurts to watch.
Well, it hurts to think of my kids paying for the stupidity for all their lives

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

--Is there someplace we can short Krugman?-

And how about Robert Reich?

LOL

[hit and run]

Ignatz:
And how about Robert Reich? H/T, Hit.

Reich is so short, it's really not fair to make fun of him. I mean, he's short enough that you figure he has to have some form of dwarfism, but in his physical appearance, I really couldn't detect any of the common features normally associated with it.

But, when Elliott and I were at the reception, I questioned where all the big stars were. When Elliott mentioned Reich and motioned to his right, my left, I looked over and then back at Elliott. "That's not Robert Reich," I said, as the only male in that direction was a 30-something dweeb. Elliott again assured me Reich was there.

I looked again, this time taking a step back to get a different view. Reich was being completely blocked from my view, even though he was maybe 20 feet away, by a petite young lass who was standing betwixt Reich and me.

I felt bad when I looked back at Elliott trying to hide my giggle at what had just happened.

[Jim,MtnView,Ca,USA]

btw, thanks for this post TM.
If, oh, I don't know, the MEDIA were to hold some of these people responsible for past positions and predictions we'd likely find a LOT of Dems voting "present" so as not to leave a paper trail.
That would lead to less bad legislation.

[windansea]

Brad Delong in 2009

"That an unemployment rate higher than normal is likely to be followed by a period when unemployment falls sharply is sure. On average, we expect half of deviations of unemployment from its average value to be erased over the next two years:"

I posted this at Delong's current blog post, looks like he has rejected the comment.

[matt]

perhaps the winds are changing.

This just in from of all places, Austin, TX. Even the wildlife hates Obama. LUN

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

I dunno Matt, the entire Sunday news line-up acted as if the election ended last week, as it rightfully (according to them) should.

[hit and run]

matt:
This just in from of all places, Austin, TX. Even the wildlife hates Obama. LUN

They told me that if we elected Bambi as president, we would build a bridge to the deer community. They were wrong.

[matt]

We have the polls tied and Obama's campaign manager just told the media to ignore the polls. That does not sound like a campaign that is winning.

The president just had the worst week of his diplomatic lifetime and the media is glossing it over and the NYT does him the backhanded favor of criticizing his SNAFU in Iraq.

He has been caught out as a liar on Libya, and enough people are paying attention that the media knows he can no longer slide on the screwup he has made in the Middle East.

We have Ahmadinnerjacket all set to bait Obama this week at the UN and Obama is going to be called once again on snubbing Netanyahu. As we sometimes say, it sucks to be you, Obama.

[Captain Hate]

How come those Amish barbers missed Krugman's beard?

Fear of lice.

[hit and run]

bgates has infiltrated the DNC, right?

Axelrod Criticizes Romney for Paying Too Much in Taxes

So Romney is so generous in his charitable giving (unlike Obama and Biden) that he could have taken more in deductions and reduced his tax bill. Instead, he patriotically (according to Obama and Biden) paid more than his fair (according to tax laws) share.

And Democrats want to bring this point up arguing against Romney?

Br'er rabbit approves.

[maryrose]

I agree with Jane. The Sunday shows were depressing with only one Republican predicting a Repub Senate takeover.
I however remain congident in Gmax and Rick Ballard to help us through this trying time.
Axelrod knows they are in trouble which brings me joy. Obama in Wisconsin yesterday tells me he's afraid he's going to lose there. Plain Dealer had the race 51-O 46-Romney this morning. I hope that just encourages the repubs to not take anything for granted.

[bgates]

Why is Greg Mankiw betting against America*?

*"America" is a wholly owned trademark of Organizing for America and Barack Obama, Sun King of the Universe. All rights reserved, except yours, which we'll infringe on when we feel like it.

[maryrose]

should be confident.I'm reminded of the Sound of Music song "I have confidence."
Ot: TCM had" Boys Town"on this morning. I watched it natch.They don't make actors like Spencer Tracy anymore.

[Frau Vollmond]

Barack Obama, Sun King of the Universe...

aka Rei di Tutto:
"I'm sorry. You must refer to me by my complete title: King of Everything. Rei di Tutto. But you may call me Ray."

[Jack is Back]

By paying more in income taxes doesn't Romney now meet the "patriotism" threshold set by Bite-Me?

[Frau Vollmond]

Practice makes permanent. Repeat after me:

Former Enron adviser Paul Krugman,
Former Enron adviser Paul Krugman, Former Enron adviser Paul Krugman,

[OldTimer]

I was so in tune with Brit on his comments this morning about the R&R campaign and MSM bias (lies, damn lies, and lies of omission, actually!).. Here's the clip:

http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/23/brit-hume-questions-romney-campaigns-ability-to-counteract-the-media/

[daddy Official JOM Diversity Czar]

JOM---Ahead of the curve as usual.

Over at Legal Insurrection: DIVERSITY WEEK at College Insurrection

And Happy WHITE Chocolate Day!

Eat some without guilt. Omni, Omni VOR.

[Dave (in MA)]

I think "Enron Advisor" is a dihonorific tbat sticks with you even after you've moved on, so he's still "Enron Advisor Paul Krugman" to me.

[Dave (in MA)]

s/dihonorific/dishonorific/

[Jim Ryan]

and few enter

Aha!

[Adjoran]

Krugman was, years ago, the world's greatest expert on how the business cycle affects international trade. As is not uncommon of experts in extremely narrow fields, he has never shown any particular understanding beyond that of a first-year student of the field in general.

In the early days of the Clinton Administration, Krugman was carping doubts about some policy proposal, and James Carville observed with scorn, "Krugman is known for having predicted 16 of the last three recessions."