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September 10, 2012

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Melinda Romanoff

But he got close.

GMAX

Hey he TRIED.

Janet - Why does Johnny Depp hate the poor? pourquoi?

MarkO has it right. They are both "not that smart" & both liars.
Here is a bit on lying Biden at Am Thinker today.

Anyway, I thought the Dems preferred chant was this powerful, patriotic, 3 word doozy - "Give Us Free Contraceptives!!"

GMAX

Jay Cost looks at August and tells you this. If Michael Barone or Jay Cost are talking it pays to listen in my humble opinion:

What inferences can we draw from these numbers? A few:

1. President Obama’s numbers were mired at or below 47 percent nationwide and the key swing states, despite the fact that he is universally known and has been running many ads to develop a lead.

bolding is mine, rest is Mr. Cost.

MarkO

Janet, don't forget he's a nasty little man.

What about his idoicy with a simple iPhone? Will that make the news? Of course not.

Eastwood has it right that Obama is the Greatest Hoax. Or, as the Fleetwoods sang, The Great Pretender.

GMAX

I finally read the Sarah Hoyt post and I note this little nugget which is certainly true and should be taken under advisement by a number of posters here:

Really? The polls were correct before? When? The very last polls before the elections, when pollsters try to salvage their reputation? Sometimes. More or less. Kind of. But up till then when something can be got from the propaganda and from seeding despondency on the right, the polls have been insanely skewed.

NK

close enough for gummint work, fer sure.

centralcal

AND ... our most brilliant President evah, in an interview called Paul Ryan, Jack Ryan.

Neo

"The smartest man in the room" can't use an iPhone ?

Jack is Back

In Port St. Lucie The Wonder Boy was given an iPhone to call some Obama volunteers and thank them. After fiddling and diddling for about 3 minutes trying to get it to work (and blaming the Obama advance man for giving him a faulty phone) he finally got it to work can called the volunteer who did not answer and was left an Obama-gram. Then he finally got hold of the other volunteer but the guy didn't believe it was The JEF.

Outside of that he is the smartest man ever to be POTUS.

Neo

"I mean in a way Obama’s standing above the country, above – above the world, he’s sort of God" ... of BlackBerries.

Oh please. BlackBerry just aren't cool anymore

James D.

The only time Zero is the smartest man in the room is when he's on the toilet, and even then I have my doubts.

Janet - Why does Johnny Depp hate the poor? pourquoi?

"The smartest man in the room" can't use an iPhone ?

Perhaps if they invented & gave him a Nobel prize for Technology he could some day...in the future...master the iPhone.

marlene

Good morning! Well,nothing says dignified like being lifted off the floor by a pizzeria owner.Try to imagine any president in that situation,its ridiculous!

GMAX

OK to preempt the OMG we are losing Ohio routine, PPP (D) is out with a poll that shows Zero + 5. It is a D + 4 poll which is ludicrous in Ohio.

Let me tell you a thing or three about Tom Jensen who runs Purely Partisan Polling. He is a Big Fat Democrat who is employed by DKOS to poll, and is paid by SEIU to do so. His tweets are insanely partisan for a pollster, and he regularly finds "movement" on his last poll or two before an election, to bring it more inline with the results that have been there all along.

Romney is neck and neck in Ohio and Ohio rarely goes more than about 2% to the winner, so anything like this poll is suspect all by itself.

Resume your eeyore braying if you must, however.

Melinda Romanoff

marlene-

....and recent White House guest.

FIFY.

Jack is Back

"Can someone, ummh, help me here with this iPhone thingamajig?

Jack is Back

Hey JEF that isn't an iPhone, you big dummy. That's your Blackberry.

Melinda Romanoff

Doesn't look at all like an iPhone, in that pic.

henry

JiB, that thingamajig is not an iPhone, not that the JEF could tell the difference.

Rick Ballard

I wonder what flashed through his brain at the speed of a slow walk as he decided to correct TOTUS' "America" to "the United States"? Was he thinking in Austrian, puzzling out siebenunfünfzig again, or was he considering the crass provincialism involved in using "America" which actually denotes a continent without the requisite specificity necessary to determine whether the product was manufactured in an enlightened environment such as Cuba or Venezuela or in a blighted and benighted area where where profit is still separated from rather than included in that grand overhead of state?

Probably neither. A safer bet would be his synapses are firing blanks again, as usual.

NK

As a PCS luddite I resent all of these attacks on a fellow technical dope.

Danube of Thought

Minus 9 at Raz today.

Leads Romney by 5 (50-45).

Janet - Why does Johnny Depp hate the poor? pourquoi?

That's true of me too, NK. I got no high ground!

henry

NK, Janet, its not just that the JEF is a technical dope... the Blackberry is so 2008 its like totally not cool.

narciso

And yet President Munchausen, is given credence as if he had any clue about what he is talking about. Meanwhile, they celebrate another football 'speaking truth to power' about same sex marriage, but the Tebow potential jihad was too much.

NK

OT: AIG-- amazingly, the taxpayers will get their money back from the 2008 AIG bailout. So as the dust settles, the TARP Taxpayer scorecard is Big Banks-- all paid back with significant returns, AIG paid back with small return, small banks and CIT couple Billion in losses -- so the FINANCIAL Co.s will make the taxpayers several Billion net money from TARP. The losses from the 2008 bailouts -- are still going to be huge. Why?-- the UAW bailout in the GM stock purchase, and the GSE bailouts (Fannie/Freddy were taken over BEFORE TARP-- but the are TARPy issue). The GM stock losses will put taxpayers in the RED from billions in losses when the Fed Gov't decides to take its medicene and sell its GM stock. Fannie/Freddy losses-- hundreds of Billions. Draw your own conclusions.

Communism is evil~~Communists are the enemy.                      Sandy

Blackberries are soooooo racist. . .

~~

IIRC weren't most of the smart people here saying only two-three weeks ago that Mr Romney was going to have a BIG campaign about BIG ideas, after the selection of Mr Ryan? Now, the tide has turned and many seem to believe that such is not the case and the campaign is in deep trouble?

HUH?

I'm out canvassing regularly and I do not see it here. I read comments to many posts (not at JOM), and although anecdotal information, the response is similar.

For goodness sakes folks:


NK

Henry-- I don't know how to say this, but I use a Blackberry.

Communism is evil~~Communists are the enemy.                      Sandy

Just so.

Rob Crawford

But Sandy, THE POLLS!!!!!!!!1111!!!

(Which are "important" only because the press tells us they are.)

narciso

Or just hold on to your towel, and 'don't panic', A more aggressive stance, would be appreciated on the candidate's side, though

Jack is Back

Posted wrong photo. See my 9:23am. But he did have 3 minutes of being The DOTUS (doofus of the United States) with an iPhone.

narciso

And needless to say, don't give Kevin Drum, an opportunity to pretend he know what he is talking about, which often can't be helped.

henry

NK- I don't know how to say this, but I use a Blackberry..

And you're a ref. And a lawyer.

At least we conservatives have a big tent!

ps. don't mind me, I'm a nerd. And a hooligan. ; )

Threadkiller

CommiE-verify...

"Time to Ask Obama about His Social Security Number
By Jack Cashill

I have been communicating with the intrepid Ohio private investigator, Susan Daniels, for some time. A few weeks ago, I got to meet Daniels. She is smart and sincere, and she understands her subject matter thoroughly. The left-wing "rebuttals" of her data, to this point, have ranged from the inept to the absurd.

More to the point, Daniels has information that the Romney campaign needs to know and needs to talk about: President Barack Obama has apparently been using a fraudulent Social Security number for the last 25 years.

On July 2 of this year, Daniels filed suit in Geauga County (Ohio) Common Pleas Court demanding that Jon Husted, Ohio secretary of state, remove Obama's name from the ballot until Obama can prove the validity of his Social Security number.

Husted has responded by seeking to dismiss Daniels' complaint, claiming that it has no basis in law. Daniels fired back that President Barack Obama has violated Ohio's identity theft statute that "expressly prohibits the use of another's 'personal identifying information' and expressly lists the use of another's 'Social Security number' as prohibited." She did not expect much out of Husted, and her expectations appear to have been met.

Friday, Daniels took another tack. She filed a sworn affidavit under Ohio Revised Code (ORC) 2935.09, which allows a private citizen "having knowledge of the facts" to request prosecution or arrest of an individual who has committed a crime. The affidavit makes the case clearly. I would strongly recommend that readers forward this to conservatives of influence and demand that they take it seriously. Allow me to cite the affidavit in full:[at link]"

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/09/m-time_to_ask_obama_abut_his_social_security_number.html

rse

Well I have been off mischief making and pointing out what the significance of the Dem platform is for K-12 and higher ed.

http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/college-ready-as-a-goal-of-k-12-is-not-helpful-if-first-you-gut-the-historic-purpose-of-college/

I just do not see this as a vision students, parents, or taxpayers are going to be comfortable with. And it is only part 1. Ran to 1300 which is enough for a single post.

The engrenage just keeps coming back. How Critical Race Theory and community organizing in schools will get you ready for this toxic view of college.

I had had the GPI for a while but it was not until I pulled the file from the book that I realized it mentioned Robert Kegan by name. All that troubling K-12 systems thinking links fully now.

And Ayers too. How he must have been laughing thinking he could hide behind others when it does come back to his political vision for education.

Dave (in MA)

And he's not just a dumbass; he's a wimp who got scared by the polls and went against his own beliefs and ended up having TOTUS force Villar-whatever to put "God" and "Jerusalem" back into the party platform by a best zero out of three voice vote.

GMAX

One of the questions Tom Jensen asked in his poll? Why who is more responsible for the killing of Bin Laden, Obama or Romney?

How about that? Not Bush which at least would make some sense. Nope. Romney. This is a twist on a push polling technique, to try to remind voters what they like about the incompetent one, well yeah he did get that awful Bin Laden guy didn't he. SHEESH

Extraneus

He devoted his life to public service, Jan.

Captain Hate

I can be an incredible luddite with electronic gadgets but even I can operate an iPhone.

Btw, the last time the Redskins racked up 40 points I was at the game (against the 49ers in 2005 iirc on the year). I think it was Bizarre Arrington's last good game.

Damn the Browns offense yesterday was horrible. I was waiting for carryout yesterday and some guy came up and asked about the Browns game and I told him they lost 17-16; he looked like his dog died and just slowly walked away. I felt really bad for him.

Extraneus

Hey, I found a government spending reduction!


Border Patrol halts program that provided flights home to Mexico for illegal immigrants

TUCSON, Ariz. – The U.S. government has halted flights home for Mexicans caught entering the country illegally in the deadly summer heat of Arizona's deserts, a money-saving move that ends a seven-year experiment that cost taxpayers nearly $100 million.

More than 125,000 passengers were flown deep into Mexico for free since 2004 in an effort that initially met with skepticism from Mexican government officials and migrants, but was gradually embraced as a way to help people back on their feet and save lives.

The Border Patrol hailed it as a way to discourage people from trying their luck again, and it appears to have kept many away -- at least for a short time.

But with Border Patrol arrests at 40-year lows and fresh evidence suggesting more people may be heading south of the border than north, officials struggled to fill the planes and found the costs increasingly difficult to justify. Flights carrying up to 146 people were cut to once from twice daily last year.

And this summer, there haven't been any.

Extraneus
"Everything comes down to dollars and cents," said George Allen, assistant chief of the Border Patrol's Tucson sector. "We're running into a more budget-conscious society, especially with the government."
[cough]
Neo

I'll call him now ..
1-800-4STUPID

Clarice

Do you suppose the secret service men guarding Obama were asleep when the "Republican" pizza owner lifted President light in the loafers or do you guess this photo op was staged?

Rob Crawford

Clarice, it was staged. The guy had visited the White House previously, for one thing. And, yeah, the Secret Service would NOT allow anyone unvetted and unfrisked come that close to the president.

centralcal

Clarice: according to Twitter it was staged and the Secret Service gave the "go ahead."

centralcal

Here is the twitter link, Clarice, from the Washington Post, no less.

Lift Was Staged

Captain Hate

Is there anything about the JEF that isn't staged or contrived?

Specter

Gee...wonder why I haven't seen these gaffes on MSNBC...oh - never mind...

And - even though I don't have much time for posting anymore, I am still around...

sbw

Working on a draft editorial. Comments?

“Leftism” has no single definition so Obama has easily claimed not to be leftist or socialist. But among the ’isms competing for Obama’s attention, the leftism of his Harvard Law professor, Roberto Unger, from whom Obama took “Jurisprudence” and “Reinventing Democracy,” is disturbing because its points match how Obama has tried to transform this country.

“Reinventing democracy” puts everything on the table. Unger professes that since the world is made and imagined, no natural social, political, or economic arrangements underlie individual social behavior. Concepts that have evolved in practical government such as property rights, democracy itself, labor economics are historical artifacts that have no necessary relation to human goals to become free and economically secure.

“No necessary relation” means that Obama is welcome to ignore the useful lessons of history to impose anything that feels good to him at the moment. He can pass legislation without reading it because, as he told Congress, “I won.” He can dabble in politics by emotion as he did invoking the death of Trayvon Martin. He can claim his administration is moderate by citing Ronald Reagan. He can invoke participatory democracy and then ignore it. He can play the race card and denounce others for playing it. He can slogan whatever to forward his feeling of the day. A proponent of the Critical Legal Studies movement, Unger values “a gospel of plasticity” to urge citizens to act on their emotions to pursue “unfulfilled longings.”

For Unger, work is an unfulfilled longing. For him, work can be seen as an opportunity for self-fulfillment rather than an honorable calling or simply necessary. Obama, following Unger, prefers government to provide food stamps, health insurance, and unemployment pay so people can do whatever they want and — pardon us for throwing the cold water of reality on the plan — not necessarily contribute the economic engine that keeps society afloat.

Unger argues that economic competition inhibits self-transformation. No matter that the Marxian fantasy has, in practice, brought economic engines to a screeching halt.

Obama isn’t out of touch with reality; his reality is different than that which has raised the standard of living for the least among us to a level that has been the envy of the rest of the world. Unger calls for different kinds of property rights and contract labor to coexist. The rule of law can be superseded by the whim of authority as it when Obama cheated non-union labor out of pensions and bond-holders out of their investments to pay off the United Auto Workers in the General Motors bailout.

Unger wants to rework schools to better fit the needs of the state.

Most recently, Unger called for tax and regulation policies to create public pools of venture capital funds. Unfortunately, private investment tends to be more judicious than government funding friends with crony capitalism as in the multi-million-dollar failure of Solyndra.

No wonder Obama did not voters to vet his past. His past is too close to his present, and not something we wish for America’s future. There is too much at stake to vote on a lark for a dangerously risky second term.

Clarice

That's excellent, sbw. Is that an editorial in your paper?

Rick Ballard

"No wonder Obama did not ???? voters to vet his past."

What an excellent editorial, SBW. Bravo. You adroitly distilled Unger's neo-Benthamite/Marxist idiocy with great clarity. The Kendonesian commie would be displeased to see the exposure of his blood red roots.

Danube of Thought

But up till then when something can be got from the propaganda and from seeding despondency on the right, the polls have been insanely skewed.

Let's try this: Does every single pollster seek to seed despondency on the right? Are there any who try to seed despondency on the left?

Are there any who simply publish their results honestly?

rse

The first sentence of last paragraph is missing a word, probably "want."

Because these profs and former profs either reject or do not know history, we are being pushed toward many of the same mistakes that made the 20th century so deadly.

When I read some prof complaining about totalitarianism AND pushing a curriculum based in emotion I want to scream Ignoramus. Very frustrating.

boris

"Are there any who simply publish their results honestly?"

Bias isn't necessarily dishonest, at least not in their eyes. "The results don't really count yet ... let's ask the questions this way and see what we get ... if it looks interesting we can publish the results ... if not who cares?"

GMAX

2004 Ohio exit polling by CNN. Look it up yourself. R + 5. SHEESH

sbw

Thanks. Everyone needs a copy editor. I had "wish" but "want" fits better.

Clarice, it's a draft I wrote this morning and, as a practice I will sleep on it overnight to read it fresh in the morning to see if it still reads clearly. Then we'll publish it either tomorrow or Wednesday.

Thanks for exercising your blue pencils.

Danube of Thought

if it looks interesting we can publish the results ... if not who cares?"

Gallup and Rasmussen publish every day, whether the results are interesting or not.

Danube of Thought

Can Rahm Emanuel possibly be re-elected as Mayor of Chicago?

jimmyk

Are there any who simply publish their results honestly?

DoT, even if they are honest and doing it as objectively as they know how, it doesn't mean they aren't using flawed methodology that in effect is biased. For example, if they routinely use the party affiliation data from the prior presidential election's turnout to weight the sample, that might be SOP but still GIGO.

It would seem like a straightforward exercise to see how meaningful early September polls are for the final results. I'd be shocked if they provide much information at all beyond what other indicators (unemployment rate, approval ratings, etc.) already provide. If someone would provide me with the data I'd do the analysis myself.

Clarice

My inclination is the same as jimmyk's. But then I've been known to (successfully) bet against someone who had 4 cards to a royal flush showing. (He was acting very aggressive--practically baring fangs at me and I figured if he had the hole card he'd not be doing that.)

Communism is evil~~Communists are the enemy.                      Sandy

sbw - Excellent.

But, what is the reason for this editorial? Folks at JOM can appreciate, as RB says: You adroitly distilled Unger's neo-Benthamite/Marxist idiocy with great clarity. The Kendonesian commie would be displeased to see the exposure of his blood red roots.

I do not think anyone reading your editorial will be compelled to revise their assessment of the JEF. Perhaps I am wrong. But, your adroit summation will only, imo, appeal to and reinforce the opinions of those who understand that the JEF is not of this culture, that he brings different values and concepts to the oval office. To the undecided, I think you fly way too high. NTTAWWT.

NK

DoT makes an important point, Raz and Gallup publish PUBLIC poll info every day-- it should be evaluated not dismissed.

Clarice

Polls/shmolls/ scientism at this stage..and new surprises in every one:
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) - A new statewide poll commissioned by The Albuquerque Journal shows President Barack Obama with a relatively small lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney and 8% of voters still undecided. The poll suggests that New Mexico's presidential race may be more competitive than national pundits and polls have previously suggested.

DrJ

Kodak death watch:

Eastman Kodak Co. said it will cut another 1,000 jobs and disclosed the departures of two high-ranking executives as the imaging company continues to struggle in its attempted turnaround.

The latest round of layoffs add to the 2,700 jobs cut so far this year. The company didn't detail where the cuts will fall. Kodak said it expects to save about $330 million a year from the head-count reductions, including costs for compensation and benefits.

Under the new management structure, co-President Philip J. Faraci and Chief Financial Officer Antoinette P. McCorvey will leave the company.

jimmyk

Clarice, I was thinking more along the lines of all those whizzes who had figured out that the CDSes and CDOs would pay off for sure based on their whiz-bang models and the known fact that house prices never decline in aggregate. Forget about penny ante poker, you could have been like John Paulson shorting the housing market with ice in your veins.

Clarice

Bob Strauss still offered up the best gauge to my mind of voter sentiment.He'd go to the most popular dinner in a city, order a Denver omelet and chat with folks there about politics.

In Milwaukee you go to Serb Hall in Cudahy.

There's a place like that in every city. You have to put your feet on the ground.If you have a lot of volunteers who are self starters an respected in their communities, you an find out that way.

jimmyk

I know quite a few moderate Dems and Repubs who voted for Obama in '08. Without exception they regret it and are all in for Romney. I don't pretend that's a representative sample, though, so who know? I also know lots of people like my siblings and parents who would sooner walk barefoot on hot coals than ever pull the lever for a Republican and think Romney is the devil. That's the 40-20-40 split I was referring to yesterday.

bgates

Lift was staged

Who in the campaign thought it would be helpful to show that America's first gay president was comfortable being picked up by big burly men?

Clarice

Bests me, bgates.

Porchlight

Let's try this: Does every single pollster seek to seed despondency on the right? Are there any who try to seed despondency on the left?

Are there any who simply publish their results honestly?

Some outfits are clearly more partisan than others. PPP does not claim to be non-partisan. It is a Dem firm. RCP has (D) in parentheses next to it in its listings. Its R+9 poll right after the Akin earthquake was overtly fraudulent and clearly designed to fool Akin into staying in the race. This ought to have ensured that no thinking person would ever again take its polling seriously, but apparently that has not come to pass.

Jay Cost's post this morning looks at polls from non-partisan polling firms using LVs. So Jay Cost clearly believes there are partisan and non-partisan outfits in the business.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-did-obama-really-win-summer_652093.html

Bread in the gas tank in the garage.

Two circuses in every pot.
==============

Rick Ballard

jimmyk,

(A)B's comment about pollsters working around a 90% refusal to deal rate suggests 'accurate polls' to be more the result of the pollster's political acumen than anything to do with statistically valid measurement.

IOW - the CDO algorithms may have been more accurate.

I'll still follow the Ras and Gallup results in their archival form. The trends of the 10% who respond are a measure of something, even if I don't know what the hell it is.

Clarice

True, RB and Porch.

Rob Crawford
The trends of the 10% who respond are a measure of something, even if I don't know what the hell it is.

Brownian noise.

GMAX

more the result of the pollster's political acumen than anything to do with statistically valid measurement.

Same point I tried to make yesterday. The theory is everyone has an equal chance of being selected. Since a huge percentage self selected out by refusing to be sampled, and others dont have a landline and are not included in the sampling regime. If that is not true, the theory is kaputt.

So you get pollsters norming their poll. And the norm they choose may be very very wrong. Like using a D + 4 sample norm for this election, at least that is my contention. Others may choose to think that is right although it seems to me many many alerts are flashing "Danger Will Robinson, danger ahead."

glasater

As my (and Janet's) FB friend says...These thugs in office will do and say anything to get conservatives discouraged and not go to the polls and vote.
They are trying via the media to brainwash the public.

Danube of Thought

I agree with everything Jimmyk,Porch and RickB just said.

Concerning the 10% problem--which I think is quite substantial--it is nevertheless plain that within that 10% there has definitely been significant movement in the past ten days or so.

I can't recall a time--ever--when the polling data seemed so at odds with what I perceive as the national mood.

jimmyk

I can't recall a time--ever--when the polling data seemed so at odds with what I perceive as the national mood.

September 1980?

Thomas Collins

It seems to me that Ras's 50-45 Obama lead at the moment is consistent with good feeling from Mrs. Obama's and former President Clinton's speeches (the muddled persuadables would be expected to like these speeches), with the good feeling trailing off in a couple of weeks or so and reverting back to the slog the race is likely to be until January 20, 2013 (assuming we have a winner by then). I still think that if Mitt is a strong yet reassuring presence in the debates, Mitt might be the clear winner by the early morning of November 7th.

Porchlight

I can't recall a time--ever--when the polling data seemed so at odds with what I perceive as the national mood.

How about September 1980? Honest question - I wasn't old enough to be paying attention.

My theory on this, which may or may not be supported by actual data, is that the pollsters are way, way off on the partisan ID skew of the actual electorate. Gmax and RickB have touched on this frequently.

Let's say the RV pollsters are going with anything from D+4 to D+8. Ras is LV but he is going with D+4 (despite his own polling showing Rs actually ahead of Ds in party ID).

If the *actual* electorate is shaping up as R+2 or R+3, this would explain most of the divergence.

That is why a landslide is possible even though Obama is currently polling ahead - because party ID has moved heavily toward Rs, and enthusiasm is +10 toward Rs, but most if not all polling firms, for whatever reason, have not picked this up. It is still under the radar. It's as if 2010 never happened.

The map is not the territory. Polls are just that - polls. Not reality.

Jack is Back

The butter knives are out!

Joe Scarborough: Mitt Romney is in Trouble.

I am hoping that this convinces the MSNBC audience that it is a sure thing and they don't have to go to the polling station on the 6th of November.

Porchlight

September 1980?

Ha - I was typing while jimmyk was posting and didn't refresh. jimmyk, we are on the same page as usual...

Thomas Collins

In any event, I am sure Axelmessplouffecutter is enjoying the anxiety among Romney supporters, and is "partnering" with MSM to fuel this anxiety. Anything to cut off the cash and volunteers for the Romney campaign.

Extraneus

I ignore the polls, but I do understand that they can serve certain useful purposes. For example, if one were trying to decide which candidates to send money to, it might be helpful to know who's a lost cause, or far enough ahead to not need the help. Another purpose might be to better evaluate a candidate's strategy, or the effectiveness of an ad blitz, etc.

Otherwise, what's the point?

Jack is Back

This is certain to get a lot of attention in the MFM.

Woman Points Gun at Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC)

Although I believe that little (R-SC) will result in a thunderous spike in most newsrooms.

Clarice

How else to explain that the D's are in trouble in WI, Ct and N Mex to name a few traditionally blue states then tat there is a weighting error of the sort porch just mentioned? Or the R's are just not responding to the pollsters..

(A) nuther Bub

Just to be clear (as some like to say) the completion rate of a phone survey is not just cooperators vs. refusers. The ratio is calculated by counting as non-completions the numbers where the phone isn't answered by a human after 3 tries, where the line is busy 3 times running, where there's no voter at home (3 times) and outright refusals.

I mention the three attempts because that used to be the norm: calling the household once on a weekday late afternoon, calling a second time on another weekday evening and, if still unsuccessful in reaching a voter, calling a third time on a Saturday or Sunday. While that upped your chances of a higher completion rate at the end, it also raises costs because second and third callbacks obviously are less productive. Thus, very few polling firms do that any longer -- they just keep dialing numbers until they reach their goal (which also enables a daily result to report, as with Rasmussen).

In any case, when you do your accounting at the end, outright refusals are never the main factor reducing the completion rate. No answers are the biggie (and that would be an increasing obstacle as ever-greater proportions of households acquire caller ID).

Granny Jan and Jihad Kitty

If you listen to Obama lecturing in 1994 at the University of Nebraska none of this will surprise you. Anyone who actually gets through the 39 minutes gets a medal.

To think he was writing Dreams at this very moment. Two words: lol.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/exclusive-audio-in-1994-obama-criticized-clinton

I started the countdown today with my favorite Obama cult video Building a Relgion which I updated in Feb:

Obama: We are 57 Days Away From Fundamentally Transforming the USA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icy2ax8ec08

Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!

So I was just at the dentist and the hygienist told me she hates Obama but concerned because Romney is going to raise taxes on the middle class.

I straightened her out, but clearly that is the message that is getting out.

maryrose

I think the false numbers and inept attempts by the dems to depress repub turnout will fail. All repubs I know do not want Obama to enjoy a second term and ruin our country further. As a result you will see 2010 enthusiasm to vote on Nov. 6th.
Joe Kernan says the Friday before the election the Obama camp will fudge the unemployment numbers to show 7.9 as the unemployment figure to help Oblammy win re=election. Any thoughts on this?He has been right in the past when he called them on fake numbers earlier in the year.

Porchlight

Clarice,

Related to all this is the Reagan phenomenon - which is that significant numbers of registered Ds have quietly decided to pull the lever for the other guy.

Right now, they're willing to say they'll vote for McMahon over Blumenthal, but they aren't quite ready yet to go on record as having officially ditched Obama.

These are the voters Eastwood was going after, and I think that's who Romney is targeting as well. They are much like the people Sandy Daze, jimmyk and others have been talking to. If Mitt doesn't do anything crazy or stupid in their view, they will quietly drop in his pocket come November.

Annoying Old Guy

One thing about polling firms that seems to be missed here is that regardless of partisanship, polling firms benefit when an important political race is perceived as close and volatile. If Romney, as he should in a rational universe, be 20% ahead of Obama, who would pay for additional polling? But if it's within the MOE and shifts on a regular basis, then you pay for polling.

Unrelated, I do continue to be stunned by people who took the Dem Convention as a triumph for the Democratic Party. They think Rahm Emmanuel saying "people are talking about Eastwood because Romney's speech was vacuous" as a devastating quip and that Clinton's speech was basically enough to convince them to vote for Obama one more time. Or that people don't like Rev. Wright because his Jesus was black. I suppose it's a (slight) change for the better that it wasn't Obama's speech that sold them.

Obama Ex Oficio

maryrose

Rick Santelli also predicted 7.9 fake number before election.

NK

Rush Limbaugh in 2004, and 2008 correctly cautioned against dismissing as liberal bias Oct polls showing Bush's lead tightening (2004) and Bam winning. That said, he also correctly pointed out in 2010 that polls were missing the Repub/TP wave. Polls are more art than science, that's true, but good pollsters make alot of money because they produce good data for their customers. The trick is finding the good pollsters and understand what they are saying in their PUBLIC polls (assuming you are not a paying customer, which I am not.) The campaigns pay millions each month for good polling data-- ignore them at your peril.

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