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September 09, 2012

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hit and run

The Traditional Sunday Morning Open Thread

sbw

Twoth!?

hit and run

..and nail.

narciso

Of course, my local fishwrap takes AAG Perez at face value, making another dubious assertion, aimed at Rick Scott, the details don't really matter.

Threadkiller

As I troll alone, I wonder
What went wrong without our law
Our law that was so strong
And as I still troll on I think of
The things we've done together
While our hearts were young

I'm trolling in the rain
Tears are falling and I feel a pain
Wishing John Jay where here by me
To end this misery...

"Journalist Todd Starnes via Twitter: Obama to 6 year old boy: "You were born in Hawaii? You have a birth certificate?""

" toddstarnes @toddstarnes

Obama to 6 year old boy: "You were born in Hawaii?You have a birth certificate?"

Out of all the news reports for this manufactured story CNN is the only one to mention Sheriff Joe Arpaio's investigation. However, they failed to mention the findings which show both Obama's birth certificate and selective service registration are forgeries.

"Among the highest-profile "birthers," as they are known, are Donald Trump and Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Arpaio, the top law enforcement officer in Maricopa County, Arizona, earlier this year held a press conference to announce findings of an investigation he led into documents."

Obama's Huffington Post proves this stunt was manufactured by the Obama campaign by reporting the following:

"This time, Obama aides helped flesh the joke out. They made sure reporters with the president knew the young boy's name, age and residence."

" How sick of Obama to include a 6-year old child in his disgusting charade. The parents of this child should be ashamed of themselves for using their child as an Obama pawn. This includes the media that protects Obama at every turn. Shame on all of them!"


Read more "reports" on this manufactured story at the link

http://obamareleaseyourrecords.blogspot.com/2012/09/birther-in-chief-obama-asks-6-year-old.html?m=1

Wait a minute, isn't it Obama that is trolling?? What is he fishing for?

marlene

Maine Sunday Telegram (Portland) reporting on a Bloomberg Businessweek story: Karl Rove says any Republican who donated to Olympia Snowe before she dropped out of the Senate race should ask for a refund.Recall that the Republican candidate,Charlie Summers didn't endorse Snowe against a Tea Party challenger earlier this year. She has $3M in campaign funds and doesn't plan on donating to Summers.Rove described the Maine political climate..."Portland,Maine is sort of like Portland,Oregon only they (Mainers) don't smoke as much dope."

Threadkiller

"Former Science Advisor To Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu And Founder Of Israel Science And Technology Declares Obama Birth Certificate Forged: Slams U.S. Congress, U.S. Senate, And U.S. Courts Lack Of Action"

http://obamareleaseyourrecords.blogspot.com/2012/09/israel-science-and-technology-confirm.html?m=1

...And I wonder
I wo-wo-wo-wo wonder
Why?
Why-why-why-why
We ran away

narciso

Cecil's post at the end of the last thread, was reassuring, as to what the polls really mean, I am very cynical about things since events four years ago, when reality became
an inconvenience.

The real news, about Israel being betrayed, telegraphed by Dempsey, the IAEA having gained some modicum of wisdom is more more concerning.

Ignatz

Dave Weigel is a dumbass.
Now, I don't mean that as a pejorative. He's a dumbass in the new neutral sense of the word I've come up with; he's stupid and he's an ass.

Neo

And here I thought this "trolling" was what the "Swift-boating" was all about ... inconvenient stories about the truth.

Melinda Romanoff

That was nicely capped, Clarice.

Jane - It's gonna be a Tsunami in November

Well the Fox News All Stars appear to have called the race for Obama this morning - which I find very disturbing.

Captain Hate

Jane for some reason my local Fox station has moved FNS to 10 so you're on your own in providing the early report.

What a trainwreck last night's thread was; I refused to talk about anything but sports. Speaking of sports, to hell with the NFL.

Captain Hate

Glenn Hubbard versus weasel boy Austin Goolsbee on the economy; this should be a thrashing. Goolsbee already sounds like a stuttering imbecile.

hit and run

On This Date In 2008:

“You know, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig.”
--stuff Obama said

"He wasn't in any way referring to Palin. Not a chance. Nope. No way, no how. He's completely innocent and blameless. And dreamy."
--stuff the media said

narciso

I have found that they base their conclusions on other than solid evidence,
it has watered it's brand in the last two years,

narciso

Conquistador Coffee, does seem to run the executive training program, Captain, honestly what was the point last night.

Captain Hate

You can put a designer dress on a lurching mean spirited woman who hates the country but she's still got a fat ass. Per the MFM, I wasn't talking about Mooch.

Danube of Thought

Minus 10 at Raz today.

Leads Romney by 4 (49-45).

Captain Hate

Mia Love is on FNS now.

Btw even though they're probably terrible this season, the Terps are 2-0 and probably beat the best team in Pennsylvania, Temple (unless I'm overlooking somebody) yesterday.

Danube of Thought

Temple is not bad at all this year.

Since Penn State has lost to Ohio U. and Pitt fell to the Penguins of Youngstown State, I suppose the Owls' only in-state challenger might be Slippery Rock.

NJ Jan

Last night's thread was stormier than yesterday's weather in NJ. 58 days to go in an election can be a lifetime. This election can still go either way. We all need to do what we can to steer it RR's way. The debates, ads in swing states, etc, all have yet to play out. It is good to analyze and critique our side's weak spots/vulnerabilities and, hopefully, help in correcting if possible. That is not being Eeyorish(?). That is being realistic. There is still a long way to go and it will be back and forth. RR will have to play a smart game -- no margin for mistakes in strategy/tactics.So much for my Sunday morning quarterbacking. As usuual, I thoroughly enjoyed Clarice's
Pieces this morning!

Captain Hate

I don't know if anybody linked it yesterday but Mort Zuckerman made some points about the dreary jobs data that should be pounded http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444273704577635681206305056.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

Captain Hate

The only person who was given an excuse for not fixing the economy in four (and subsequently more) years was FDR, donk mythology aside one of the most inept executives in everything but trashing the rights of the individual. There was no reason the Depression had to linger as long as it did.

Jane - It's gonna be a Tsunami in November

David Gregory just asked Mitt Romney the last time he spoke with an unemployed person. (The implication being that he is out of touch). Pushing the liberal narrative.

Romney's response: "Last night".

Now he is on to Mormonism.

Ignatz

The thing that I find odd is that we have two disconnected conversations on the same subject simultaneously.

The first is the dismal history of polling's predictive powers, especially prior to the last couple of weeks of a campaign.

The second conversation is predicting the outcome of the present race based on polls taken months before the election, and the nearly bi-polar cycling of elation and dejection based on the polls that we usually determine in the first conversation tell us close to nothing about the outcome historically.

It's all a bit pollarizing. :sorry:

Rick Ballard

Ignatz,

Here's solid backup to the absolute reliability and predictive efficacy of polling. Please note - the article was written by a very well credentialed expert in the field.

Captain Hate

Juan Williams: Most people don't think the economy is that bad.

Captain Hate

Romney's response: "Last night".

Game on Monkeyboy.

Ignatz

--Juan Williams: Most people don't think the economy is that bad.

Posted by: Captain Hate | September 09, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Romney's response: "Last night".

Game on Monkeyboy.

Posted by: Captain Hate | September 09, 2012 at 10:52 AM--

If an out of touch dumbass 'journalist' asks a stupid question in the woods would he ever know he was the one who was out of touch?

Captain Hate

Looking at the donk ads, have they become exclusively the Planned Parenthood party?

Comanche Voter

Dave Gregory, Dave Weigel, George Stephanopouls--all sacks of Bandini manure--but I don't mean that in a bad way.

Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet

Clarice strikes again. She should have a gig in the Weekly Standard to widen her (and its) audience. If Bill Kristol is reading this, a word to the wise should be sufficient.

I hate to say it, but I don't accept the Fox All Stars as the ultimate authority on predicting election outcomes. How did they do in predicting the 2010 mid terms?

And let's not ignore undefeated Lehigh as one of the better football teams in PA:>)

Ignatz

--Please note - the article was written by a very well credentialed expert in the field.

Posted by: Rick Ballard | September 09, 2012 at 10:50 AM--

Yeah Rick, an expert with the same name as a dead guy who used to make things dance by pulling their strings or sticking his hand and/or head up their arse.
Apropos.

Ignatz

Wonderful Pieces, clarice.
They're scared to death.

Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet

I guess Juan didn't speak last night to someone who was unemployed.

Danube of Thought

Michael Gartland in the New York Post:

“Convention bounces almost always disappear,” said Larry Sabato, a political-science professor at the University of Virginia. “By the end of September, we’ll be back to where we were, which is in a very close race.”

Sabato described the post-convention bumps that Obama and Romney received as relatively small compared to others in the last several decades.

A more important factor in the race will be jobs reports — one of which was just released Friday. Another is due four days before the election, Sabato said.

Obama is hurt by Americans’ disappointment with the employment numbers.

The national economy and the federal budget deficit are heading in the wrong direction, according to 72 percent of voters questioned in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

And 68 percent of voters expressed similar views on the job picture. Those numbers bode well for Republicans — and will help them right up to Election Day, Sabato said.


Danube of Thought

Delightful, Clarice.

Janet - Why does Johnny Depp hate the poor? pourquoi?

Do we have to be unemployed to speak with authority? Do we have to be a minority? Do we have to be out of rubbers?

Jane - It's gonna be a Tsunami in November

Stephanopolus (I think) said with a great smile that the person leading the polls in the beginning of September always wins the election.

IIRC, that was Romney.

narciso

No, I disagree the Bandini has some use, you sure you don't mean Semprini, And yet the PPP was still the closest at that time, and 'missed it by that much'

henry

Funny thing, Romney & Obama to start ad blitz in WI today. Yesterday somebody quoted "experts" that knew nothing. As a bonus, the O campaign is sending "the intellect of the Dem Party" to WI on Thursday -- I guess they don't want our electoral votes.

(A) nuther Bub

Please note - the article was written by a very well credentialed expert in the field.

What am I failing to get here, Rick? That article was written last May and covered polls begun almost a year before the primary. As I recall it, the polls in the last weeks showed Cruz winning by double digits, yes?

Clarice

Thanks TM and JOMers.

Danube of Thought

What is discouraging to me is not that the polls are telling us what the outcome will be. They aren't. But they do tell us that at this moment in time, after nearly four years of this miserable failure, roughly half of our fellow citizens would be willing to vote for him again.

Let's assume he loses, 52-48. What in the name of God are those 48& thinking?

Jane - It's gonna be a Tsunami in November

Oh Meet the Press an Obama victory is also a done deal.

Cecil Turner

Romney's response: "Last night".

Better response would have been: "Last night . . . it's not like they're a rarity." (or some such)

caro

Re food stamps and SS disability...

These dependent millions are the invisible counterparts of the soup kitchens and bread lines of the 1930s, invisible because they get their checks in the mail. But it doesn't take away from the fact that millions of people who had good private-sector jobs now have to rely on welfare for life support.

From the article CH linked. This is the reason things don't look as bad as they are.

Clarice

They're thinking we love Honey Boo Boo, food stamps and teachers unions,and are a ok with outlawing profit I guess.

Thomas Collins

Re various folks such as Fox pronouncing Obama the strong favorite or winner: Keep in mind that for most of the persuadables, how Romney performs in the debates will be crucial. Persuadables who are uneasy with Obama are nonetheless unlikely to swing to Romney until they are convinced they can entrust the Presidency to Romney. Romney's chance to show he's up to the challenge will come during the debates.

Keep in mind that, even among individuals who follow politics closely, JOMers are in the top one percent in terms of the attention people have given to the campaign. JOMers also realize that what are called "debates" are essentially joint news conferences that don't really have much to do with determining who would be the better POTUS. I suspect that for a persuadable, the debates are going to be key for determining whether to oust the incumbent. I also think that even if there is a break away from Obama, it will come at the very end. Bottom line: The emotional roller coaster will be like being on Coney Island's Cyclone ride until November 7th and probably beyond that.

Frau Steingehirn

Test

Army of Davids

Repeat a truth over and over...

Mandates, new taxes, new regulations and implicit uncertainty put upon business by ObamaCare = job killer

There will be no economic recovery if ObamaCare is allowed to continue to roll out.

See Europe for where this is going.

rse

One thing about Gallup I have noted is often they are the organization used by the global schemers themselves to gather desired info. Case in point was the World Values Survey they did in the early 90s they conducted to gather info on what buttons to push in the organized bid to alter consciousness at an unconscious level. That's not the first time either. That would be a lucrative franchise to have. The "go-to" organization to gather intrusive but useful manipulative info.

Can't imagine then why anyone would believe that the Tea Party vision for govt might affect their revenue model. Quite right, totally disinterested in who prevails electorally.

Frau Steingehirn

Testing

Thomas Collins

Did I get at least a gentleman's C on your test, Frau?

jimmyk

What in the name of God are those 48% thinking?

There's an unwarranted assumption in that last word. I think we start with the fact that roughly 40 percent reflexively pull R or D each election. Then that 52-48 is really more like 60-40 among those who are "persuadable."

(A) nuther Bub

But they do tell us that at this moment in time, after nearly four years of this miserable failure, roughly half of our fellow citizens would be willing to vote for him again.

True, but I try to take cheer in looking at it from the other direction, that about half of us still retain enough traditional values and love of country to vote for the Republican team. When one considers that half of all households pay no income tax, about an equal proportion get monthly checks from the gov't, that the media is all one way, that we've been flooded with new immigrants who overwhelmingly vote with the Dems, (read last night that almost 85 percent of immigrants from India voted for Obama in '08, as did most from South Asia), that we have at least two generations of poorly educated and brain-washed younger voters, etc., etc. then it's almost miraculous that Romney and Ryan are neck and neck with Obama. Being a Republican in America in the 21st Century is going to be increasingly difficult; we mustn't kid ourselves about that.

Gus

David Gregory. "Mr Romeney, when was the last time you talked to an unemployed person?"
Mitt Romney. "David, when was the last time you had Obama's knob in your mouth?"

narciso

A bit of a poser, rse, Gallup has been the flagship poll, over time, but they whiffed on 2004, ironically the election they say this resembles, they have been close enough
to the truth, that Axelrod has sicced the DOJ on them, recently, ponder that thought
for a milisecond.

Yes, the folks who Pete Rose would say 'come on, even I wasn't that biased' will not put their weight on the platform,

Ignatz

--What am I failing to get here, Rick? That article was written last May and covered polls begun almost a year before the primary. As I recall it, the polls in the last weeks showed Cruz winning by double digits, yes?

Posted by: (A) nuther Bub | September 09, 2012 at 11:20 AM--

I believe he was agreeing with my point that polls months prior to an election have little to no predictive power and those who ride the waves and troughs of them are not acting too sensibly.

Gus

Goodness Danube, that "roughly half" of America sounds familiar. As in...roughly half of Americans don't pay income tax, as in....roughly half of Americans recieve benefits from the tax payers who DO PAY INCOME TAX.
And LIBTARDS think that is a feature not a bug.

bgates

Anyone who has ever seen a picture of Dave Weigel can appreciate why he doesn't mean "troll" as a pejorative.

Clarice, you should remove that reference to 103 million Google hits at the top of the discussion of "Empty Chair Day". That's the number you get if you search for the words instead of the phrase, so for instance a page with the inspirational story "Daddy's Empty Chair" on a Seventh-day Adventist website gets a hit. The real number, for the whole phrase and ignoring the scumbag sites that steal other people's content, is 371.

(A) nuther Bub

Keep in mind that for most of the persuadables, how Romney performs in the debates will be crucial.

Romney will do well. As one twitterer said this morning though, journalists will now turn from complaining about trolling to beginning to write their stories titled "Romney Stumbles during Debate."

Ignatz

--Let's assume he loses, 52-48. What in the name of God are those 48& thinking?

Posted by: Danube of Thought | September 09, 2012 at 11:21 AM--

It's nothing new.
What were the large majorities thinking in 1936 and especially 1940 when they reelected FDR twice as he made a complete hash of the economy and transformed America far more fundamentally than Barry has?
By 1940 there had been 8 years of unemployment never dropping below 14% and whatever recovery had occurred in 1933-36 had been completely lost in the renewed contraction of 1937-40 and yet he didn't just win, he won in landslides.

Jane - It's gonna be a Tsunami in November

Oh dear BGates, I've been bragging about that number all week.

Ignatz

To be fair, if you click on the "omitted results" the number goes up to 388,000.

Danube of Thought

And of course they'll be on their tippy-toes waiting for the first thing they can call a "gaffe."

Old Lurker

We are just going to drive ourselves nuts for the next two months trying to figure it out per Iggy's 10:44.

So I am adopting two markers to get me through:

1. I will not worry until Rick Ballard tells me to worry.

2. If the looter half does out vote the producers then doom is truly upon us for the rest of my years and I will just accept that and refocus my financial planning on making my kids as looter proof as possible. And on perfecting the art of a perfect G&T.

jimmyk

The only person who was given an excuse for not fixing the economy in four (and subsequently more) years was FDR

Not even sure FDR got that--the economy looked to be in a solid recovery by November 1936, unemployment was falling fast, and had come down from about 25 to 16 percent. Still high, and I agree that FDR did great harm, and there was another collapse in '37. But Barry is no FDR, and that's saying a lot.

Rick Ballard

(A)B,

They all missed the Cruz number by at least 10%. They all used samples small enough to ensure the MoE was large enough to blanket the miss and when it got down to two candidates in the runoff, PPP blew the MoE in their final prediction.

As long as everyone agrees that polling = horseshoes, the results are very satisfactory.

Jack is Back

DoT,

If you still have my email send me a note. For some reason have lost yours.

Have an email from Joe T. about a book being written by a SI guy about the 1958 Army - Navy game. Joe and Buddy Wellborn are featured.

jimmyk

Bing gets 186,000 on "empty chair day." Still pretty good.

Clarice

Well that doesn't seem accurate bgates..I get furniture ads when I do that.

Clarice

I cant figure out a correct # and I was quoting Jane..so there it stands.. Is it 4371 with furniture ads, 186K on Bing, 388K n omitted results or the no Jane first had? The point is sound..the alternative media and a handful of ordinary people (well, they're extraordinary to me) inspired a nationwide campaign in 24 hrs. No wonder Shapiro and Weigel are moaning.

Clarice

Jay Cost reminds that Obama cannot get over 47% ..

Extraneus

And of course they'll be on their tippy-toes waiting for the first thing they can call a "gaffe."

"Oh, and Mitt said that Obama had killed over 200,000 energy jobs, when it was really only 198,000! Tee hee. How can we 'entrust' the presidency to such an ill-informed candidate?"

This is why I want the gloves off. "Gaffe" reports are for pansies. This is a death match, and Obama should be gushing blood after each debate.

Danube of Thought

Time Magazine, September 15, 1980:

"The latest public opinion poll conducted for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly and White discloses just how close the race is once again. Carter and Reagan are deadlocked at 39% each, while Anderson's support is 15% -- precisely the level set by the League of Women Voters for him to qualify as a 'viable' candidate and therefore earn a third spot in its crucial opening debate, set tentatively for Sept. 21 in Baltimore."

Clarice

I've submitted a comment indicating the count might be wrong, we cannot agree on a new one, but the point stands about a handful of posters creating overnight a nationwide campaign , frustrating to peple like Shapiro who are used to controlling the message.

jimmyk

Clarice, I think you can say that Empty Chair Day "saves or creates" 103 million hits, and then you're on safe ground.

sailor

Exactly, Clarice. Now, I am leaving reading JOM today as it makes me depressed, and I will continue with my Sunday sans politics.

Ignatz

--This is why I want the gloves off.--

Then don't read this story where Romney talks about the parts of Barrycare he likes and how he isn't going to give those darn rich people any kind of tax cut;

"I can tell you that people at the high end, high-income taxpayers, are going to have fewer deductions and exemptions. Those numbers are going to come down. Otherwise they'd get a tax break. And I want to make sure people understand, despite what the Democrats said at their convention, I am not reducing taxes on high-income taxpayers, Romney said."

I remain skeptical the Stupid Party won't blow it again if they win.

Clarice

Jay Cost in his own words: "Any incumbent jammed up under 47% of likely voters should be *VERY* worried."

Danube of Thought

My system no longer remembers yours, JiB. Perhaps hit could send it to me.

I remember the game well; it was my plebe year. Army was undefeated and (I think) ranked no. 1 although they had had a couple of ties. Pete Dawkins had just been awarded the Heisman Trophy. Navy's coach, Eddie Erdelatz, always had a gimmick of some kind, and for this game he had the backs and receivers wearing international orange helmets.

Dawkins fumbled the opening kickoff and we scored first--I believe it was sophomore Joe Bellino who got the TD. After that it was all Army and we lost, 22-6.

NJ Jan

Sailor,
I find the opposite. Reading JOM doesn't depress me, it buoys my spirits by seeing intelligent, rational (mostly) discussion on the election 's status and the country's situation.

On another note, my older daughter is participating in Run for The Cure today in Central Park West.

Danube of Thought

Gallup had Carter up four in late September.

DebinNC

Reading JOM doesn't depress me

The idea that JOM folks might believe a CBS report of selective, non-context Romney remarks depresses me. "Courage", folks, as Dan would say.

derwill

USA Today/Gallup poll for September 9th, 2008:

McCain/Palin 50%, Obama/Biden 46%

Just sayin' . . .

derwill

Trying this again, apologies in advance if it shows up twice . . .

USA Today/Gallup poll for September 9, 2008:

McCalin/Palin 50%

Obama/Biden 46%

Jane - It's gonna be a Tsunami in November

I was quoting Jane

I was quoting you, I think it was you, from a post last Monday.

Frau Lehrerin a.D.

No more years!
No more years!
No more years!

==============

"Did I get at least a gentleman's C on your test, Frau?"

Of course! You have not fallen asleep in class once this semester, TC. Now about those unexcused absences...

Danube of Thought

Clark Judge:

"Pollsters will tell you that they cannot always count on voters to level with them about which candidates they favor. For example, Gov. Scott Walker’s victory in the Wisconsin recall election several months ago was predicted by the polls, but his margin was not. It was a larger margin than the surveys had forecast. Similarly in 2004, Sen. John Kerry went to bed on election night believing he would be the next president. He woke to a surprise, as did Democrats in 1994 and, to a lesser degree, in 1980. Note, in all these elections it was the Democrats who got the unwelcome surprise."

Clarice

Really? Well, you should know better than to believe me, esp on numbers, Jane.. XOXOXOX

Anyway, I've done what I could to clarify it.

Blaming you of course.
"Other posters on JOM have indicated they think Jane's google count on Empty Chair Day was high but we cannot agree on an accurate number. The point remains valid: A handful of IT users created a nationwide campaign in less than 24 hours, justifying the moans by Shapiro and others that they no longer can control the message."

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/09/obama_and_the_dnc_running_on_empty_comments.html#disqus_thread#ixzz25zZi0ElO"

Thomas Collins

Trips to the casino, Frau, account for the absences. Think of it as the lab part of my statistics course!

Frau Lehrerin a.D.

TC - My tests have been to monitor the *sudden* inability to post from my MacAir. I can post from my kindle and from my PC. Since getting caught in TM's anti-Cleo weapon, I'm a little nervous when things like this happen.

Drudge's latest shown poll numbers can really make me nervous. I shall, therefore park my faith with Lux Vestibuli.

Danube of Thought

Just got this e-mail:

"You know what happened back on September 9, 1850? 
 
"California became a state.Back then, the state had no electricity. No money. Almost everyone spoke Spanish. There were gun fights in the middle of the streets.
 
"So it was just like California today.  Only back then, the women had real tits."

Clarice

Very funny, DoT. As for Silver, Jay Cost is laughing out loud at Nate's figures.

henry

On the numbers thing for empty chair day... search site hits are a silly way to measure. Page views buried LI for much of the morning (after Drudge linked it), and its fair to say that the internet connected device share for "empty chair day" sites exceeded MSM view/readership on Monday.

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