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October 05, 2012

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Jane - Get off the couch your country needs you!

7.8%

Something is screwy as only 109k jobs added

Captain Hate

And Choom Boy calls Romney a liar?

jimmyk

Reposting from the previous thread:

Something is screwy

They're based on different surveys. The household survey found a bigger increase in employment than the more comprehensive survey of businesses. Probably a blip, but the JEF will spike the football.

jimmyk

Reposting from the previous thread:

Something is screwy

They're based on different surveys. The household survey found a bigger increase in employment than the more comprehensive survey of businesses. Probably a blip, but the JEF will spike the football.

Captain Hate

The U-6 number is still 14.7% so these new UE numbers do not add up. Someone is lying.

Captain Hate

Does this mean that around 800 thousand people dropped out of the labor force in one month? That should be the big story here, how close to a million people just gave up thanks to the JEF's policies.

narciso

He can vote against the troops, and against the people of new orleans, and then demagogue it, without any reservation, this minitrue aspect has permeated every face of this administration.

narciso

Even Scarborough isn't buying it, they went full Tufnel.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--unemploment drops to 7.8%, making a great headline for Obama-

Unemployment was 7.5% in September for Jimmy Carter and was declining.

Please sir may I have some more mush from the wimp?

NK

CaptH-- the Household survey 'found'873K MORE people 'employed' in September than in August. The labor participation rate was up .1%, and payroll jobs were only up 109K. I'll read the BLS report tonight, but the only explanation is an adjustment, based on jobs BLS believes were created, but aren't yet showing up in payroll numbers. There have been big september adjustments before (like 2003) but that was when a recovery was strong and payroll jobs increasing strongly -- now, we are on the edge of recession and payroll jobs aren't keeping up with population. Let JEF go out an spike the footfall-- he'll look like a fool to persuadable voters, no one 'feels' 1 million new jobs/month.

PD

It's a miracle!

All Praise Obama!


No doubt Rush will remind us today that he's been predicting for months that, because no president has ever been reelected with a jobless rate of 8% or higher, the rate would drop below that before the election.

PD

Any predictions for *next* month's report?

Effect of Christmas hiring?

Melinda Romanoff

The NSA #'s say all the hiring is in State and Local Governments. Nearly 1 million new hires. Any guesses where in State and Local Government they got hired?

(Here's a hint: Ask rse.)

NK

Thanks CaptH for that link. jack welch is flat out calling the BLS jobs created assumptions a fraud. Wow. And back in September Rick S at CNBC did call for a 7.9% topline number no matter what the reality, based on assumption manipulation. Just Wow-- this ChiCrew is really gangsterism.

NK

1 Million State and Local hires? How? And how do State and Local gov't 'hires' not show up in the payroll report?

narciso

Ah, that Sam Jackson quote about frank speaking comes to mind;


http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/05/jobs-report-114k-jobs-added-jobless-rate-7-8/

Captain Hate

the Household survey 'found'873K MORE people 'employed' in September than in August.

That's the biggest one month jump in 29 years. Did anybody get the feeling that things were going gangbusters in September?

hit and run

NK:
Let JEF go out an spike the footfall-- he'll look like a fool to persuadable voters, no one 'feels' 1 million new jobs/month.

I'll repost from the last thread: Obama spiking the ball

Melinda Romanoff

NK-

They're Not Seasonally Adjusted. Back to school arrivees.

Part time workers for economic reasons jumps from 8 million to 8.6 million, Aug to Sept.

fdcol63

Does anyone know of a graph that shows the Obama admin's BLS posted monthly unemployment figures that then includes the later adjustments?

Sort of like a bar graph with the adjustments in red or whatever on top of the admin's posted figures?

I imagine that would reveal the lies for all to see.

narciso

It's a joke, out of Zoolander, just like this, how do they expect anything after three weeks of an abandoned crime scene, the chain of evidence is blown sky high.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/world/africa/fbi-agents-scour-ruins-of-attacked-us-compound-in-libya.html?_r=1&

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Thanks CaptH for that link. jack welch is flat out calling the BLS jobs created assumptions a fraud.--

I find it difficult to believe that a government which allows thousands of guns to be shipped to Mexico that are used to murder hundreds of Mexicans and two American agents, intentionally conducts government business on private computers to avoid legal oversight, leaks the details of military operations in order to look good even though it gets people killed and "asks" government contractors to illegally delay layoff notices so as to make sure the jobs market looks better than it really is would stoop so low as to manipulate unemployment numbers.

Melinda Romanoff

Ig-

Iowahawk pointed that out in a slightly shorter form.

""Us fudge employment numbers? Never!" - guy who told Lockheed to illegally delay layoff notices until after the election "

DublinDave

7.8 %.......we just kept the Whitehouse!

PD

Gas stations in California now experiencing closings and rationing.

No worries, though. Barack Earl Obama will be all over this to get it fixed soon.

Melinda Romanoff

The Talking Points Are Out! The Talking Points Are Out!

narciso

Just like this is the new scandal de jour, not being covered;


http://shark-tank.net/category/state-local/

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

BTW,
I understand the objections to the Special Prosecutor law. It can lead to "witch hunts" and hamstrung government and makes the executive branch somewhat a captive of partisan politics.
Seems to me though it is an open question, considering the tip of the iceberg of illegal and corrupt behavior I described in my 9:09, whether hamstrung government is worse than corrupt government operating with impunity.
Actually to me it's not really open at all. I'd much prefer a hamstrung government hobbled by partisan politicking than one openly corrupt and whitewashing itself.
Congress simply doesn't work as law enforcement.

NK

MelR-- I don't think your right this time. The U-6 rate -which does include p/t workers for economic reasons-- was flat at 14.6(or .7)%. So that doesn't explain a drop in the U-3 rate. Household survey doesn't add 'back to school arrivees' every september in large numbers, in fact government payrolls were up only 10K in sept.-- moreover this was highest single one month EMPLOYED jump since 2003 -- that was a census adjustment year-- this was the biggest number since 1983 without census. So participation rate is flat, U-6 is flat, payroll jobs up only 114,000, state and local government jobs don't explain it. Were do the 873K jobs come from. That is what Romney should be talking about today. Where are those jobs, prove it.

Janet

Perfect spiking the ball video, hit!

Sue

It's a miracle! Right before an election of a democratic president, the unemployment drops to what it was when he took office. People found 800,000 jobs even though only 100,000 were added. Miracle, I tell ya'. Miracle.

narciso

It doesn't matter, Ignatz, they will scapegoat any such investigator, as they did with the IG's, they cite Scalia's Morison's decision, and when it's a GOP, they pull a Fizgerald,

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/04/3034949/judge-florida-voter-purge-can.html

DublinDave

7.8 % woooo hoooooooo.............. This number needs to be imprinted on the minds of every single American from now till next month......... get Leno, Letterman, Fallon and our other surrogates to pound on it....... get Clinton out there.... the President needs to hold a Press conference in the rose garden stating that while it's good news we still have a lot more work to do...... Maddow, Mathews, O'donnel need to pound on this number every night..... Williams needs to lead off with this tonight........... we just kept the Whitehouse

Melinda Romanoff

The data was written yesterday at Manny's Deli, IMO. Axelrod's favorite.

jimmyk

The Obama recovery:

DublinDave

"Where are those jobs, prove it."


When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.

narciso

What's the best sandwich over there,

fdcol63

DuDa may be having multiple orgasms from these numbers, but the rest of us remember well how the Dems blasted Bush's unemployment figures that were below 6%.

Jim Ryan

Narcisolator update nixed my troll array. If you're seeing troll droppings, it might be because you clicked "ok" on an update and lost your array. Re-initialize your array.

Thanks for maintaining the Narcisolator, bgates.

D & C

Romney will have fun with this manipulation of numbers at the next debate.

Sue

They really have no shame.

But the government said the total number of jobs employed surged by 873,000, the highest one-month jump in 29 years. The total of unemployed people tumbled by 456,000.

In this economy, it is the highest 1 month jump? And they know the media will help them sell this.

laff trac

".......we just kept the Whitehouse!"

deadbeatdave = Comedy Gold!!!!

Captain Hate

I'm hoping Ryan blasts these numbers out of the water as part of his destruction of the dumbest imbecile ever to crawl out of Scranton.

jimmyk

Per my chart above, Romney should be saying that the share of the population employed is far below where it was when Obama took office, and has been stuck at historically low levels for three years. Nothing changes with this report. It's great for those who managed to find jobs, but it's a drop in the bucket and doesn't help the millions who are still not working, have given up, etc.

Melinda Romanoff

narciso-

It's taken me years of research to determine that I don't care, just gimme.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--7.8 % woooo hoooooooo.............. This number needs to be imprinted on the minds of every single American from now till next month........--

Again I find myself in agreement with WeeDavey.
When Barry was elected it stood at 6.5%. Four years later he has it down to 7.8%.

Melinda Romanoff

183K new multiple job holders last month.

jean

To quote the lefties "I question the timing"

jimmyk

Plus, weren't we told that unemployment was staying high because of all the cuts in state budgets, and the winding down of the stimulus? So what made it come down in September 2012? The stimulus in 2009?

sbw

Jim, my Narcisolator array has 80-90 entries. Want a copy?

narciso

now why did he do this, did he invite someone from the Duke and Duke junior executive program


http://minx.cc/?post=333524

J.R.

DD, who knew that 7.8% was such a great number??

this manipulation will be exposed for the fraud that it is, go ahead and own it.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--In this economy, it is the highest 1 month jump?--

Sue,
Bloomberg says 580,000 of the 870,000 household number were part time jobs which don't register on the BLS employment data.
I don't doubt that 580,000 people either had to get a second job to make up the 8% drop in median household income or only found part time work rather than a real job.
I mean hasn't the latter been Barry's job description his whole life?

GMAX

7.8% is something to celebrate? Well I guess after that skanky performance in the debate, you would be a man overboard clutching desperately for any flotsam drifting bye.

Show me the RAS poll on Monday after the debate, and after the @ss beating was discussed at the water coolers repeatedly around the US yesterday. That should tell us a great deal about a lot of things.

Sara

873,000 people reporting they have found a job. Only 114,000 jobs created. Does that mean that 759,000 are working under the table and not paying taxes?

Danube of Thought

Minus 11 at Raz today.

Leads Romney by 2.

Captain Hate

now why did he do this, did he invite someone from the Duke and Duke junior executive program

I guess it was easier to say this than explain what was actually edited out. That post might get the ewok an early peek at the crop report.

Janet

To quote the lefties "I question the timing"

me too, jean. I just don't believe anything put out by the MFM anymore. They have proven themselves untrustworthy.
Selective outrage over gas prices.
Selective outrage over leaks.
Selective outrage over civilian deaths.

It's a propaganda game. While this nonsense is being debated the left is looting our country, drowning business in regulation, blocking energy production,...

If more jobs is such great news...why can't our domestic energy production be unleashed?
The jobs were probably in the "Diversity Training" field anyway. Govt. spent more of OUR money on hiring Chicago outfits to propagandize OUR citizens.

Melinda Romanoff

Sara-

The 114 number comes from the Establishment Survey, which asks for hard numbers. The 873,000 comes from the Household Survey, a phone poll of 50,000 homes and statistically adjusted to fit 300 Million US citizens. Apples and oranges.

The 873,000 figure has 582K new part time workers and 183K new multiple part time job holders as part of the estimates.

Rick follows this stuff better than I do, so I'd wait for him to weigh in.

NK

MelR@9:45-- 183k new 'multiple' jobholders is a BIT or an explanation. But unless BLS expects us to believe 183K took a second part-time job PLUS 600K started landscaping businesses, I'm still with jack welch-- thiss based on BLS assumptions of jobs created.

Sara

Mel: I was being facetious.

My first reaction was thinking, wow, Obama does have a good ground game with all those $11 hr "volunteer" protesters, mischief makers and the bus drivers to move them around. :)

D & C

Romney:

"“This is not what a real recovery looks like. We created fewer jobs in September than in August, and fewer jobs in August than in July, and we’ve lost over 600,000 manufacturing jobs since President Obama took office. If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force, the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent. The results of President Obama’s failed policies are staggering – 23 million Americans struggling for work, nearly one in six living in poverty and 47 million people dependent on food stamps to feed themselves and their families. The choice in this election is clear. Under President Obama, we’ll get another four years like the last four years. If I’m elected, we will have a real recovery with pro-growth policies that will create 12 million new jobs and rising incomes for everyone.”"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/05/mitt-romney-this-is-not-what-a-real-recovery-looks-like/

NK

MelR- OK 183K people took a second part-time job to make ends meet, and 582k who's unemployment benefits ran out took a part-time food service/retail job. Is that POSSIBLE? I suppose, but 582K is a huge number, what retailers/food servers did that kind of hiring IN ONE MONTH?

Melinda Romanoff

The calculators at ZH made short work of this one.

0.66666666666, or "How I got to 7.8%% in one easy division problem."

Neo

BLS Net Birth/Death Adjustment
Sept 2011 -26
Sept 2012 -9

Yeah. They fudged it up

Melinda Romanoff

As Iowahawk points out, cashing a new Soc Sec Disability or Unemployment Check is a part time job, of sorts.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Jeffrey Lord at AmSpec discusses another tape of Barry only 18 days after the fiery, Marxist, jive talking one at Hampton U.
In this one Chameleon Barry is talking to and about Rev Wright to a white, upscale United Church of Christ convention audience and is the very embodiment of a non threatening, clean and articulate house...well you know.
He's an unqualified, Affirmative Action Zelig.

henry

WI State Senate handicapping.

Fitzgerald predicts a two or three seat Republican majority after the election while Miller predicts Democrats will maintain their one-seat edge.

I haven't seen any polls and the media are ignoring these races, but Fitz is sane and Miller is a hack. Walker should be back in business as expected, the left will continue their tantrums.

MarkO

After Romney goes all "Indiana Jones and Temple of Doom" on Obama and rips his heart out in front of America, we get:

"Minus 11 at Raz today.
Leads Romney by 2."

That would make me think that the unemployment rate doesn't matter either.

I have to wonder what, if anything, matters.

matt

Jobs report manipulation has been done by every administration for the past 40-50 years, especially around election time. 100,000 here. 100,000 there, and you're talking real money.

matt

btw, Jack Welch is calling bullshit. LUN

Sara

Raz said yesterday that the first poll he'll have that includes the debate will be out on Sunday morning.

NK

MarkO-- what that 4 letter word?

MarkO

My favorite or the one starting with "d"?

Jack is Back

It really doesn't matter what the number is after they manipulate it since the people who are unemployed or out of the work force or in the black income stream or hurting financially, etc. know the real truth. This will not win anything because that have replace reality with a fantasy.

That and the fact that Obama is being shown on live TV to the be the doofus we all knew but the media was against showing to the American people.

Cakewalk coming soon to a neighborhood near you.

narciso

It's not Untergang, because it's not real.

Jane - Mock the media

Huge uptick in government jobs. I'm shocked!

I think the debate was the end of Obama. Everything else is just flailing. And I loved how Romney warned us that Obama would be playing these tricks.

He may do slightly better at the Town Hall where he can get some adoration, but I think his improvement will be marginal.

He's toast.

NK

MarkO-- your pick-- I'm easy

hit and run

Let's go ahead and revise Q2 GDP to 9.2% while we're at it.

steve

jobs do no matter as much as the deficit. Sadly, Romney and Obama do not plan to get the deficit down to a low level any time soon.

Rick Ballard

The Household Survey showed an increase of 847K in January of this year. It's a very bouncy number with limited utility. That said, if BOzo wishes to trumpet the 873K number, he has to live with the fact that the total increase in the series from January 2009 to today is 787K. The Household Survey showed 142,187,000 employed in January 2009 and shows 142,974,000 employed today.

The increase comes to 18K jobs per month added during the BOzo Presidency. Definitely a B+ effort.

steve

Romney said he would only cut federal jobs thru attrition. The deficit is way too serious for the casual way Romney is approaching it.

NK

ZeroHedge links to GS analysis. My translation of GS is that the U-3 Household Survey is "plausible", but they definitely don't 'confirm' it. 582,000 part-time jobs because of no alternatives in a lousy economy?-- if true-- how exactly does that help JEF? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/goldmans-nfp-postmortem

Jack is Back

In the meantime, California has lost over 25% of its current refining capacity. Can't bring in gasoline and diesel from out of state since California has much stricter particulates and fuel specs. Gone above $5/gallon in some areas.

Chevron refinery in Torrance had a fire and is shut down. Either have to repair to new specifications or get grandfathered. I think the one in Martinez is operating below capacity due to ongoing mods.

NK

RickB@11:24-- you hit on the political reason motivating the blowout Septber part-time number. For the FIRST month EVAH since JEF's been POTUS, the USA has more total jobs (including part-time) than in January 2009-- thanks to this 873K number. For the first tme he can claim the USA is not in the red for total jobs under his regime. That's why, IMO, GS calls this Survey 'plausible' but definitely not confirmed.

steve

When does the long predicted budget meltdown in Ca. occur? I recall 4 years ago the conservative press saying California's budget problems were insurmountable.

PD

Summary of today's jobs news:

In four years, Obama has completely failed to improve the economy AT ALL.

Now he wants another four years to work his magic again.

Some Guy

7.8 %.......we just kept the Whitehouse!

Actually, the One would have been better off not screwing with the numbers. The jobs report would have come and gone in a Friday news cycle.

Now that there is obviously something funky going on, it will get talked about more and drag out and only continue to remind people --

the emperor has no clues.

Dave (in MA)
how exactly does that help JEF?
LIVs still V.
Melinda Romanoff

I figured it out.

The Census Bureau makes 60,000 phone calls to collect the data for the BLS.

What well known former Chief of Staff moved the Census Bureau into the WH in 2009?

The Census Bureau makes the 60,000 phone calls to collect the data for the BLS Household Survey, conveniently.

steve

Romney should be focusing his criticism on the deficit and not jobs. People in northern NJ at least all have jobs. Those who do not get government checks of some kind. It is the deficit that is not improving and which threatens to destroy us. Romney is too casual in his approach. He says he will not cut spending.

fdcol63

Not only does it remind people that Obama has no substance, it reminds them that he's a lying douchbag.

steve

"... Not only does it remind people that Obama has no substance, it reminds them that he's a lying douchbag ....

so what. Romney is the one who is not running on the real issue, that the US needs an austerity federal budget. Romney has no plan to reduce food stamp rolls, for example.

Melinda Romanoff

Shoulda proofed that better.

narciso

I think it was someone on CNBC who pointed out, the figure is +/- 18 points.

Some Guy

Romney should be focusing his criticism on the deficit and not jobs.

No he shouldn't.

Anyone who even understands the deficit is insane if they don't have an ABO outlook, and is already voting for Romney.

His focus has to be on the mushy undecideds, who care more about kitchen table issues. You can't address the deficit if you don't win.

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