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October 25, 2012

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Comments

Sara

A byline strike, as opposed to a strike strike, right?

daddy

I am so angry about TM posting a new link I am going down to breakfast. Harumpf!

daddy

Maybe they're withholding their Byline's because of embarrassment.

TM's link reminds me of that very fun scene in that Seinfeld episode where George reveals to the girls at the bar that he writes a sitcom for I think NBC, and they laugh like crazy and dump him in a heartbeat with gratis humiliation.

"You write for the New York TImes?"

Ha" ha ha ha ha!",

"Hey Louise, this short fat baldheaded moron loser who's been trying to pick us up all night writes for the New York Times. Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!"


Doesn't make sense, but that it doesn't, does.

A curiosity, 'work to contract' is a threat. Which means they otherwise don't work to contract? Hey, it's a contract, right, willingly assumed by both parties. Apparently willingly ignored by both parties.

Also, doesn't the New York Times' contracts with their big names include use of those big names.
====================

rse

I wanted to post this link that gives the address for contributions to Ty Woods family. The former Navy SEAL left a wife and small son when he was killed in that Benghazi attack.

http://pjmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2012/10/24/ty-woods/

Moral reprobate works. Pres Petulant Ass is the one I have used if you combine the demeanor, flagrant lies, and the refusal to protect those placed in harm's way on our behalf.

No wonder we have been signed on to all these horrific agreements I have read. He hates us and he hates capitalism and he hates individual accomplishment and hard work.

And the media covers for him. Partly because at this point it has to or its complicity becomes obvious.

henry

Sara, they know who they want to endorse, but are afraid to pick a loser. Weasels is an excellent description.

peter

What's happening in Europe. LUN

hit and run

Fun With Early Voting In North Carolina, "How Do You Like Them Apples?" Edition

Republican early voting is up >50% vs 2008.
Democrats are up 17%.

I estimate that Obama had a 144K vote lead at this point in 2008, and that his lead now is <12K over Romney.

If I wasn't heading right out the door for a long golf weekend, I'd share more. But as it is, I must be going.

Fare thee well.

peter

Looks like Bill didn't help out so much. LUN

peter

I never heard of Rose Goettemoeller before today, but this article by Paul Sperry in the IBD is quite informative. These are the radicals in Obama's administration.

Patriot4Freedom

In light of the MJS's endorsement of Scott Walker in the recall, there is no doubt that they are punting for expediency.

Sara, you're right, they're weasels.

matt

The circular firing squad is already loading their bullets, peter.

So what does the generation identitaire mean, peter? age warfare? A rejection of multi-culti? a return to responsibility? All or none of the above? From the follow up it seems they are being identified as right wing radicals.

peter

Matt, I think it means that there are a substantial portion of the European population who realizes they have been screwed by liberal policies. Whether a tea party movement can form in Europe remains to be seen.

NK

Peter-- thanks for that link. And it's true, western europe goes one of two ways-- moslem control with post christian dhimmis, or there is a social upheaval and muslims are forced to north africa. I carefully mentioned to a dutch woman who lives in town -- she didn't disagree, she calmly but firmly said it will be the second option. Sounds like the20 somethings plan a similar rebellion against their pensioner parents. Watch this space.

hrtshpdbox

I estimate that Obama had a 144K vote lead at this point in 2008, and that his lead now is <12K over Romney.

This goes to what Porchlight was asking about last night; the conclusion the author reaches in that blog you posted is that "Democrats *do* have a 20 point lead over Republicans at this point. But that compares to a 31 point lead at this point in 2008." FWIW, here's the North Carolina absentee ballot running total, which appears to be updated at least once daily:
ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

narciso

So who didn't tip Haley Barbour, was it, about the +9 D in the Ahia poll.

narciso

Gosh, Powell endorses Obama, shocker?

MarkO

At this point, many voters would wonder who is this Powell fellow and what does it matter.

rse

Wow Peter. I think Rose in your link is especially troubling. What a dangerous world these people have created with their fantasies about reality and general obtuseness.

Properly credentialled of course.

steve

This once again shows how utterly clueless reporters are about what happens outside their little cocoons.

The vast majority of readers could care less about who writes a particular story. All they know is that the story they read was written by someone they presume works for the paper they're reading. Ask a typical newspaper reader (to the extent that there are still newspaper readers) to name a single reporter and they'll come up empty.

And yet to reporters, it is all about them. They think people buy the paper (at least back when people bought papers) for their Page One stories when in fact people bought newspapers for the sports, classifieds, comics, movie listings and the weather. The front page is what they glanced at on their way to the important stuff in the back.

Reporters were wrong back then about why people bought the newspaper and they're wrong now in thinking that anyone will care if their byline is on a story. Clueless. Just clueless.

Porchlight

Bless you, hit, for that NC analysis. I done Facebooked it.

hrtshpdbox

Gosh, Powell endorses Obama, shocker?
That duplicitous jerk did the same on October 19th four years ago, I wonder what the delay was this time around.

henry

Porch, heard on the radio this morning that early voting totals in PA, CO and (gasp) WI strongly favor Romney. In WI Dane county (Madison) had a big turnout Monday, but Waukesha was even bigger. Will look for a link.

centralcal

Good morning. So glad Powell endorsed Obama. He stays true to form, at least.

NK

Peter's Vid again--
I spent 9 days touring in Provence last month--- 3 days in the college town of Aix en Proovence. There were definite undertones of what those video 20something were talking about. The college kids (definitely a majority female group) were rushing about town like mad to/from class and meetings. definitely moving a faster and more purposeful pace than I ever did or what you see on American campuses. The young Galois Francais hotel business guests and workers were hardworking and obviously ambitious. But the 50somethings talked about how to beat the tax system with cash transactions and complained about the 'old' pensioners cheating national health with casino spa visits for their 'rehab'. And of course the North African yutes were either street sweepers or hung around with no apparent vocation except maybe drug dealing. These video kids maybe a tiny minority, but their message is pretty apparent in everyday provincial life.

narciso

That was a whimsical take, on it, Central, I just saw the scrolling, so I don't know what excuse,
he used, I think 'splunge'

hrtshpdbox

NYT blogger concludes that the way to run against Romney was to cast him as a shameless flip-flopper, not as a severe conservative, and that it's Bill Clinton's fault that Obama didn't choose the right path.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/how-bill-clinton-may-have-hurt-the-obama-campaign/?hp

Annoying Old Guy

Here is one attempt in the UK at creating a Tea Party style political movement. I think the problem is that despite all the complaints by the European populace, they won't actually vote differently. Look at Hollande in France - how is he not everything in those complaints?

Janet

From the follow up it seems they are being identified as right wing radicals.

Is that Europe's "shut up" line? ....we dismiss your concerns because you are a right wing radical.

Porchlight

henry, that's great news. Do post a link if you can, I could use it.

B Hull

Detroit News:

"Editorial: Mitt Romney for President"

(I believe they endorsed McCain in 2008)

narciso

I tried WISN, Belling's station link, and I didn't see anything;

NK

As DoT may not be up and about yet, I'll repost something from earlier this morning EST:
DoT/Daddy--a few months ago I commented that no one should ever doubt a DoT US Navy family history, and if DoT ever commented he had ancestral relations on the bridgewing with Dewey in Manilla Bay I'd believe him. Now I'll have to extend that to the CSN as well. It's unbelievable; DoT has more navy history in his family than I've been able to read in 45 years. Speaking for myself DoT, keep it coming. It's truly remarkable stuff.
Daddy-- i was inside the great Buddha 5 years ago, why was not told of the valuable naval history inside. I love japan any futher travelogues you can providevfrom there would be greatly appreciated.

narciso

The only dodgy one was distant cousin, upton sinclair, well you can't win them all.

JerryRigged

http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/24/14677602-feds-investigate-phony-letters-warning-florida-voters-theyre-not-eligible-to-vote?lite

Cate said a "significant majority have gone to Republican voters, but not exclusively. We've got Democrats who received the letters, we've got independents. We're telling everybody to be on the lookout."

henry

Narciso, good guess. It was on the handoff between Ken Herrerra and Jay Weber on that station (they overlap about 10 minutes on eachother's shows). Nothing on Jay's links for today. I e-mailed to ask for a link.

narciso

Well I figured the Journal would be thoroughly useless.

Rick Ballard

Porchlight,

I sincerely doubt whether facts will prove effective in countering the prog early voting "keep hope alive" narrative. It's stronger than an Ohio firewall, although it will prove to be no more durable.

It's going to be entertaining watching the NYT build a narrative around the Pinhead Troika's use of an impeached, disbarred perjurer (and accused rapist) as the cause for BOzo's lost. It's rather dishonest not to note that BOzo hasn't moved the needle in polling for over two years, having never recovered from the wallop administered by the Tea Party.

narciso

This is of course, the problem we saw in Libya, the likes of bin Qumu, and ben Hamid, bring the armaments and the footsoldiers, and then they determine the outcome,

Threadkiller

"[Obama] confessed that he isn’t competent to help Malia with her math homework.

“The math stuff was fine up until about seventh grade,” Obama said. “Malia is now a freshman in high school. I’m pretty lost.”"

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/25/obama-does-jay-leno-president-riffs-on-the-economy-afghanistan-rape-his-math-deficiency.html

centralcal

Twitter is all a-twitter of the front page of the Des Moines Register.

Quite A Contrast

Seems like only yesterday there were all these stories about "off the record" and then, "on the record." Hhmmm.

Jack is Back

Ex has link on the prior thread that shows that only 79% of Americans like America finishing 3rd behind Japan and Kenya in how we are perceived. You can bet that of those 21% of American's that don't like America are 100% Obama acolytes. That is what we are facing as a country - a large corp of insurgent seditionists - and that is scary.

Rick Ballard

JiB,

If you created a Venn diagram comparing the 21% with the the 22% who profess a prog ideology, it would appear as one circle. If you used black to denote the 13% commie portion of the 21%, it would make an excellent bullseye.

Threadkiller

Speaking of Trump, he does seem to know more than investigative journalist Gretta:

http://youtu.be/J2mrEud8iJ4

She did not look pleased.

centralcal

NumberMuncher at NRO has an interesting piece on Ohio early voting and the polling there. An excerpt:

Enter Ohio, where the current estimates from compiling early in-person and absentee voting shows early turnout to be about 15 percent of voters. But responses in the current polls claim that 23 percent of registered voters have already voted. That means that polls are overstating early voting by eight percentage points on average. This could be in part because some voters have requested an absentee ballot and report that as voting, some have mailed in ballots that haven’t been counted as received yet, but some voters are also just flat out saying they voted when they haven’t. It’s impossible to know the exact reason, but it’s clear that more are claiming to vote than really have.

Bold is mine.

Porchlight

It's stronger than an Ohio firewall, although it will prove to be no more durable.

So true. I will credit my FB opponent - a friend of a friend, not someone I actually know - he was very civil and so it was not an unpleasant conversation. He said he thinks Romney *might* "draw an inside straight" and win with "the slimmest margin ever." Perhaps this is what Nate is telling the followers. Anyway, I encouraged him to be around on November 7th for followup.

NK

On Topic (strangely enough) -- TomM (and Steve in a comment) rightly point out the futility of the NYT 'reporters' threat. There is one current NYT reporter who's reporting and writing skills I respect-- but I can't remember his name off the top of my head -- there was also the Times Guy in the 90s who went after Clinton for Whitewater and Chinese campaign money. Some sports writers I know- that's it for the newspapers. These reporters don't have an elevated sense of self-worth, they have a fantasy.

narciso

Jeff Gerth, for the latter, as for the former,
hard to say, Zeleny does the craft no favors;


Hunting for the elusive Skydragon;

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/24/3065658/environmental-groups-want-us-to.html

rse

Janet-my experience is that in Europe a right wing radical are Fascists and Nazis. There is an insistence that these collectivist ideologies are of the Right instead of the Left. Wrong.

It is a way of distancing Marxism which unfortunately is still widely regarded as a nice component in the toolkit of envy and state appropriation from Nazism and Fascism that led to wars.

Any of these collectivist ideologies push war because there is no respect for the individual.

Ranger

Nate Silver watch:

Obama Chance of Winning:

71.0%
+5.3 since Oct. 17

BTW, Nate is swimming against Intrade. Nate gives a very long winded post about why he is correct and Intrade is wrong. After that post and his updataed "model" resutls Intrade popped up for Obama from 55 to 60. It is starting to fall back again:

Intrade:

Barack Obama 58.3%
Today's Change: -1.4

Porchlight

Battleground Watch has several very detailed reports on early voting in Nevada. Here is the latest. Republicans are looking good in bellwether Washoe County and are keeping Obama's margins lower in Clark County than in '08. Click on Nevada in the LH sidebar for earlier analysis.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/25/3-straight-wins-in-washoe-county-nevada-for-republicans-in-early-voting/

pagar

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/10/25/palin-rips-tingles-as-a-perennial-hypocrite-after-he-accuses-her-of-dog-whistle-racism-for-shuck-and-jive-comment/

I look forward to the day when tingles is a forgotten name.

May God bless Sarah Palin as she continues to point out the stupidity of the leftists.

centralcal

Romney campaign says it has already gotten $111.8 million in contributions for just the first half of October.

Captain Hate

"I think I'm a Republican of a more moderate mold," he said before adding, "That's something of a dying breed I'm sorry to say."

Speed up the process, Powell, and take Armitage with you.

Rob Crawford
Janet-my experience is that in Europe a right wing radical are Fascists and Nazis. There is an insistence that these collectivist ideologies are of the Right instead of the Left. Wrong.

I've taken to reminding the idiots who assert this of the origins of the assertion -- Stalin declaring that fascism was "right deviation" from international socialism.

And then pointing out that if they take their political direction from Stalin, well...

Rob Crawford

Powell is as Republican as Obama is American. It may be technically true, but it's not effectively true.

Porchlight

Everyone should check out centralcal's link to the front page of the Des Moines Register. They have yet to endorse and haven't endorsed a Republican since 1972. This might be the year.

Here it is again - note the ad for the Romney rally at the bottom of the page:

http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/hr.asp?fpVname=IA_DR&ref_pge=gal&b_pge=1

NK

Narciso-- yes thank you, Jeff Gerth. Gerth was all over the treasonous links between BillyJeff-Schwartz-- ChiCom money and missle tech swaps-- then Pinch shut that reporting down. The current reporter is Eric Schmitt-- I had to Google him. Interestingly, he had no J-school training until a 2006-2007 fellowship at Stanford. His lack of J-school shows-- I mean that as a big compliment. PS: John Tierney's science columns are fantastic-- he's a fabulous writer.

Porchlight

Powell is as Republican as Obama is American. It may be technically true, but it's not effectively true.

Good one, Rob Crawford.

Ranger

This is the quote that is so devistating to Obama. I can understand why he wouldn't want it on tape:

OBAMA: “So when you combine the Bush tax cuts expiring, the sequester in place, the commitment of both myself and my opponent — at least Governor Romney claims that he wants to reduce the deficit — but we’re going to be in a position where I believe in the first six months we are going to solve that big piece of business.”

Obama's plan for reducing the deficit is letting all the the tax rates go up, and gutting defense via automatic spending cuts.

Just a side by side of that with what he said at the last debate would cost him another 5 points in the national vote total.

narciso

Well he did at least note the Benghazi emails, on the other hand;

http://newsbusters.org/people-and-organizations/eric-schmitt

PD

So glad Powell endorsed Obama.

Yeah. It tells us who not to vote for.

NK

Colin Powell-- like all of us he has his faults. Yes he's a liberal, no he's not a 'Republican' -- he became a nominal republican while a 2-star and he saw the need to join the Reagan Army to advance further up the General Officer chain. But his service to all of us while in Vietnam, and providing a face to push back against Leftist surrenderists during the Cold War, Desert Storm, Panama, Afghan War agsinst the Taliban and Iraqi Freedom shouldn't be forgotten. He's been a disaster since 2004-- that's fair game to criticize.

matt

Minitrue does not need bylines. That would be the cult of personality and would conflict with Big Brother.

Danube of Thought on Ipad

Actually, NK, my maternal great-grandfather Thoms B. Howard was with Dewey at Manila Bay, although not on the bridge wing. He was the navigator in USs Concord. He later went on to command the Pacific Fleet. In retirement he was director of the naval observatory, and lived in what are now the VP's quarters. My mother never forgave Nelson Rockefeller for commandeering the place--she had fond memories of staying there with her beloved grandpa as a little girl.

narciso

Like I've said the label is not as important as what they believe;

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/25/us-mali-crisis-crime-idUSBRE89O07Y20121025

NK

Ranger@9:32-- we should scream that quote everywhere-- if you are a family with both parents working and you earn $100K total, your tax rate is going up 10%-- and all of our national defense spending is being drastically cut to dangerous levels (according to JEF's own SecDef) and FOR WHAT?? to buy birth control pills for FlukeFace, and to pay immigrant doctors for Mediacaid for illegal aliens and for more Solyndra cronies!! tell that to every Bam voter-- every goddam one of those saps-- well the ones who work anyway.

PD

You can bet that of those 21% of American's that don't like America are 100% Obama acolytes. That is what we are facing as a country - a large corp of insurgent seditionists - and that is scary.

I wonder what the numbers would have been in, say, the late 60s or early 70s.

hrtshpdbox

Powell is much worse than just any garden-variety liberal. He timed his '08 endorsement of Obama to cause the most possible harm to McCain, who was supposedly his friend (not to mention someone ostensibly on the same page as him regarding military matters). He claimed his endorsement was based on the respective politics of the two candidates - that's bs, he was supporting the black candidate, and he should have had the courage to just say so. I'll give Powell credit for doing a great job of demonstrating what a useless and irrelevant POS he is.

NK

DoT@9:41- D'OOOOOOH!!! (FACE PALM)

OK-- Did your second cousin,once removed, on your mother's side RIO in the F-14 that shot down the Libyan jets in the Gulf of Sydra?

Melinda Romanoff

I'm surprised no one has put up what Ed Driscoll posted at Insty's: Michael Barone is calling this election "A Slow Motion 1980" scenario.

Read the whole thing, as they say.

NK

MelR-- I did read Barone this morning on the train. Barone gives some evidence for a gut feeling I have that high income suburbanites are trending repub, after going Dem 92-2008. Do you see any of that in the ChiTown burbs.

MarkO

As I said last night, in DoT I trust.

Danube of Thought on Ipad

I admire and respect Powell for his military service, I just don't know why he calls himself a Republican. I have never heard him articulate a Republican position on any issue.

Melinda Romanoff

NK-

We don't "do" that here. Unhealthy, as well vandalicious.

Threadkiller

"Powell is as Republican as Obama is American. It may be technically true, but it's not effectively true."

Rob, I thought you hated birther threads. If that has changed please let me know.

;-)

Danube of Thought on Ipad

Ed Morrissey on the AP poll showing Romney up, 47-45: "The D/R/I 34/30/27 among likely voters for a D+4 advantage, which presumes a lower Republican turnout than either 2008 or 2010, along with a Democratic turnout about even with the midterms.  I suspect that’s a little optimistic for Democrats, and that we’re likely to see an even-up turnout in the exit polling."

Danube of Thought on Ipad

Minus 12 at Raz today.

Trails Romney by 3.

NK

MelR-- oh well.

DoT-- 1988-2003 Powell was strong on American patriotism and his 2003 rebuttal to the Bushitler!! Left was sincere when he said "in the 20th century when Americs went to war against tyranny, we asked for no territory, except to bury our honored dead." (paraphrase) He meant that-- but yes, since 2004 he's been a disaster for conservatives, and his disloyalty to McCain in 2008 was disgusting.

hrtshpdbox

I just don't know why he calls himself a Republican.

It's got to be for the endless lamentations about how a once great party has changed, blah blah blah (because McCain and Romney are such extremists, doncha know).

Rick Ballard

NK,

Barone is reiterating the Battleground findings showing the 'burbs at 51R/43D on the Generic and 53R/44O for the President. Battleground has the rural vote at 65R/33O. The combined weight of the suburb/rural vote is 54.7% of the sample with a combined margin of 56R/41O. BOzo takes Blue Hell by 57/39. The sample split is a bit awkward because 27.4% DK how to classify where they live.

There are going to be a lot of claims regarding 'Who beat BOzo', so I'll stake out mine for rural Tea Party members.

jimmyk

And yet to reporters, it is all about them.

Yes, and this is related to the fact that--especially at the Times--there's not much distinction between the front page and the editorial page in terms of opinions vs. facts. At the risk of sounding like an old fogey, there was a time when journalism was more of a craft, where the idea was to present information in as useful and compact way as possible. Now it's about how to influence public opinion by spinning and slanting the news under the guise of "reporting."

Jack is Back

Do any of you Pollaholics follow Bob Krumm?

What do you think of this theory of his on polling? A sample:

Jordan quotes Gregory House to justify the apparent error of one-third of those who claim to be early voters: “Everybody lies.” I think there is something else at work too–especially in Ohio: Voter Fatigue. Ohio is the penultimate bellwether state. It has been fought over relentlessly now for four straight presidential election cycles. I have family who live there. They report that a dozen political phone calls a day is the norm this time of year. Whether true or not, “I already voted” is one phrase that gets some of those calls to stop.

Meanwhile, Zombie looks at the national polls in the RCP average and notices another curious coincidence (emphasis in original):

All polls with 1000 or more respondents favor Romney; all polls with smaller than 1000 respondents favor Obama (or are tied).

Zombie wonders why? I think I have the answer, and it’s the same trend that I noticed four years ago. Notice that the polls with the three largest sample sizes are not media-affiliated polls. Gallup, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA are polling for the sake of polling. All of the other polls are conducted at the behest of a media organization, and in 2012 that means a media organization that is on a very tight budget.

I contend that it is not media bias that drives these differing results, but is instead cheapness. Good polling is very expensive.

Melinda Romanoff

Going with self-inflicted foot to the mouth, myself.

DrJ

Off

Melinda Romanoff

Off.

Great point JiB.

NK

JiB-- Poll Dancing-- that quote is very important I think. GOOD polling is very expensive, and the media doesn't pay for it. That's why I watch for the 'trends' in Raz and Gallup, rather than any one partiular media poll. But POTUS candidates DO pay for good polling-- so that's why we should all watch what they do. And since Oct 3rd, who's acting as if they are ahead, and who's acting as if they are behind. That's pretty obvious.

Porchlight

Do you see any of that in the ChiTown burbs.

Hasn't there been a poll or two suggesting Obama is in trouble in suburban Cook County?

Porchlight

And since Oct 3rd, who's acting as if they are ahead, and who's acting as if they are behind. That's pretty obvious.

I think so too, NK. I also want to watch where they're going. Last I heard, Obama was in VA today, and Romney will do 3 rallies in VA on Sunday. Need to find updated schedules.

NK

Cook County Polls? I'll go with MelR's local reporting

hrtshpdbox

Cook County Polls?
One of the more difficult areas in the country to gauge accurately, what with different business hours at the various cemeteries.

marlene

Porchlight,O will be in NH again on Saturday.

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