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October 24, 2012

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Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

I would think every dime the clown Trump has ever put his paws on would qualify as chump change.

henry

Trump can't pick hair stylists either.

Or an annuity for now.

Can't help but think he'll drop it next week, and give out a check.
===============

Sue

Let's go Tigers.

Danube of Thought

Buffoon.

Jane - Mock the Media!

I just got back from a republican town committee meeting. Some interesting news: Romney is down by 4 in MA. That strikes me as HUGE.

One guy spent today in the Harvard, Concord Ayer part of the state. He saw 1 Obama sign and dozens of Romney signs. That is particularly interesting because MA didn't get any Romney signs for distribution so some effort was involved.

The word on Brown was - if he beat Martha Coakley he sure as hell should be able to beat Elizabeth Warren.

Sue

For Janet

A tweet...Republicans are responsible for everything any republican says. Democrats aren't even responsible for what they say.

Sue

Catholics still prefer Obama over Romney.

Frau Wahlzettel

Did Coakley have great pix with Barney and a sheltered care Kennedy? Did Coakley get to speak at the Dem convention? Did Coakley publish original fab recipes for Pow Wow cookbooks?

I hope you're correct but just askin'...

hrtshpdbox

New Foster Baydoun poll shows Michigan tied. Last time out (October 5th) they had Obama +3.


http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat

narciso

There is so much that is on the record, that 'squirrel hunts' aren't worth the candle

hrtshpdbox

Oh, and as for the topic at hand, I read somewhere that it's Bernadine Dohrn who likely authored "Dreams"; she's allegedly the better writer, and has also helped out Ayers in the prose department.

reliapundit

hi tom.

trump should buy the la times and release the obama khalidi tape.

Ranger

Yep, just a spontanious local demonstration on 9/11:

'Benghazi attack suspect' dies in Cairo shootout

According to the Egyptian officials the suspect was cornered in a flat in Madinet Nasr early on Wednesday morning. He threw a bomb at the security forces, but it bounced back into the flat.

An exchange of fire with the security services then began and went on for several hours, local media reports say.

Hmmmm...

henry

box, 1 in 35 answered the poll call. I guess it is as good as any other poll these days, but wow.

Some Guy

OK, this is Hi Larry's Ass:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331552/litigious-laureate-mark-steyn

Mann actually put his Nobel Laureate nonsense in the complaint. Is he nuts?

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--There is so much that is on the record, that 'squirrel hunts' aren't worth the candle

Posted by: narciso | October 24, 2012 at 07:56 PM--

Come again?

OldTimer

NYT's demurely sticks toe in Benghazi email scandal...

LUN

Porchlight

Okay, ConArtCritic said look at the n column for D/R/I
as percentage of 9617 total RV respondents:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx?ref=interactive

But I get different numbers:

D: 3233/9617 = 33.6%
R: 3207/9617 = 33.4%
I: 2976/9617 = 30.9%

narciso

Wait, where did this guy come from, I thought it this Jamal character, was the only big Egyptian player, how do they know he was involved.

hrtshpdbox

box, 1 in 35 answered the poll call. I guess it is as good as any other poll these days, but wow.
Yeah, and though it's got an MOE of 2.9, it also has a "confidence level" of 95%; not sure I've heard that term before (shouldn't the "confidence level" be 97.1 if the MOE is 2.9?).

Rick Ballard

Jane,

The Battleground poll had New York as well as the entire Northeast at BOzo with 52. That may be the origin of the 4 point talk.

Jane - Mock the Media!

Frau,

Coakley was born in MA and a sitting AG.

Sara

Trump's biggest mistake was in thinking that Obama cares about charity. Why didn't he offer the $5 million to the person who produces what he wants?

And BTW:

FB reaction to the Allred Oct Surprise:

OMG Mitt ripped the tags off his mattress!

Porchlight

Sorry, my 8:08 was posted to the wrong thread...

narciso

Well that's shorthand for anything, Trump is involved in,

Ranger

And this is interesting:

Sudan blames Israel for Khartoum arms factory blast

Drudge had linked to a story about this ealier today, but this one has video of some rather spectacular explosions.

Jane - Mock the Media!

Trump was pretty sure Obama doesn't do charity. It was a stunt to raise the issue.

Ranger

Wait, where did this guy come from

No idea, but the Egytians claim he was somehow connected.

hrtshpdbox

By the way, henry, to me that 1 "full survey" per 35 calls doesn't sound too far off the mark. I've been making calls in Pennsylvania over the past few days, I've put in a few hours and hope to squeeze in more; so many of the calls made go to voicemail (at all times of day). And when you do get through to a live body, it's often difficult to get respondents to take the "full survey" (in our case, just five questions).

NKOnIPad

TomM-- hilarious post on so many levels. Loved it. But why do I get the sense you wrote it just a wee bit after cocktail hour started? Was that "Connecticut Moonshine" stuff on order? Hrtshp comment that bernie ayers wrote dreams is interesting. And narciso's comment is completely incomprehensible to me.

Rob Crawford

Yeah, and though it's got an MOE of 2.9, it also has a "confidence level" of 95%; not sure I've heard that term before (shouldn't the "confidence level" be 97.1 if the MOE is 2.9?).

Charlie needs to answer this one. I know the measures are different -- I believe it basically means "we're 95% sure that the actual value is between 48.1 and 52.9".

henry

box, confidence level just means to expect 1 out of 20 tests to be nonsense -- if they calculated it properly. Its been ~20 years since I had psychometrics in grad school so I'm not sure what the response rate does to confidence levels or MOEs, but a low one doesn't help. My guess is they pull the numbers out of a statistical package without considering that such a low response rate invalidates many assumptions behind the calcs. Rick B may have a better grasp on these things.

Rick Ballard

Porchlight,

CAC doesn't understand the Gallup n. The Gallup sample is obese with >50 yo and starving for 18-29 yo and blacks. The sample is adjusted and weighted for age and race according to a turnout model closely resembling the 2008 Census voting survey.

Gallup does have the Party ID numbers. They're just shy about posting them as they come in - very like Ras in that respect. Both could post 10 or 20 day rolling averages which would tell more about enthusiasm and momentum than anything else.

Rick Ballard

Porchlight,

CAC doesn't understand the Gallup n. The Gallup sample is obese with >50 yo and starving for 18-29 yo and blacks. The sample is adjusted and weighted for age and race according to a turnout model closely resembling the 2008 Census voting survey.

Gallup does have the Party ID numbers. They're just shy about posting them as they come in - very like Ras in that respect. Both could post 10 or 20 day rolling averages which would tell more about enthusiasm and momentum than anything else.

C.R.

Follup up post from Steyn:

UPDATE: On the one hand, Michael Mann’s own web page:

He shared the Nobel Peace Prize with other IPCC authors in 2007.

On the other, the Nobel committee:

Only persons named explicitly in the citation may claim to share a Nobel Prize.

So we’re being sued for loss of reputation by a fake Nobel laureate. Hilarious.

henry

box, 1 out of 35 not going to voicemail or hanging up is what I got at the victory center here as well.

Sue

Im so acustomed to wanting the Giants to win I'm having a hard time adjusting to being a Tigers fan.

sailor

I think Trump offered up his tweet/facebook or whatever to distract attention from that horrible Gloria Allred--which I might say, "did the trick."

Porchlight

Thanks, Rick. You always clarify everything quite nicely. Still don't think Gallup should be sitting on the numbers for a month, though.

Sue

I need reminding why I love the tigers. Oh yeah they sent those damn Yankees home in 4.

matt

Trump's hair is one of the most amazing examples of coiffure of the modern age. It starts from the rear and side and what hair he has left must be @ 12-14" long the way it curves and waves over his ass bald cranium. The Donald is the king of the comb over.

That pic of Allred shows more plastic surgery than Barbara Boxer. Speaking of which has anyone ever seen the two of them in the same room at the same time. Evil little dwarves.

Did the EU Nobel Peace prize cite anyone specifically? The city of Bruxelles? So who does the check get signed to? Cash? The ECB? Greece? Angela Merkel? Do they all fight over it?

narciso

Madinet Nesr, is kind of a pricey neighborhood, as I recall from my reading of Al Aswani, who is still
'intoxicated' by the fumes of the Arab Spring, just goes to show you never know your neighbors are.

les nessman

TM: "Obama won't be playing along and talking about his birth certificate will only energize the committed and annoy the rest."

Did Trump ask for the birth cert? I thought it was only the college transcripts/apps and passport records.

I only saw a few seconds of Trump announcing this and I can't take more.

pagar

"Catholics still prefer Obama over Romney."

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/10/24/top-dem-donor-fuck-you-catholics-we-will-come-to-you-in-terror/

Somehow I don't think this will help get more Catholics to support Obama. I still question why any American would support Obama?

Rick Ballard

Henry,

Unfortunately, a survey of the 34 out of 35 non-respondents would be necessary in order to determine if their absence compromised the results obtained from the 1 in 35 who agreed to give up time at no charge.

Administering a survey of non-respondents would seem a rather daunting task.

Rick Ballard

Henry,

Unfortunately, a survey of the 34 out of 35 non-respondents would be necessary in order to determine if their absence compromised the results obtained from the 1 in 35 who agreed to give up time at no charge.

Administering a survey of non-respondents would seem a rather daunting task.

Dublindave

I actually see Trump as a victim of the right's institutionalized racism and their concerted effort to de-legitimize the current President.

Most people don't have the celebrity status or money to give voice to their paranoid delusions, but Trump's misguided notions aren't the product of a broken mind; he's been fed this by the Republican party in one form or another.


Apparently his kids have been humiliated by their fathers break from reality and have expressed deep concerns over his mental health.

narciso

Seems like a form of Tourette's on the part of this Knight character, well that or possession,

Rob Crawford

Sod off, doodoo.

Some Guy

I actually see AllRED as a victim of the left's institutionalized stupidity and their concerted effort to de-legitimize their own credibility.

narciso

From the AP:


The official said the man, known only by his first name, Hazem, recently returned from Libya and kept weapons in his hideout. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief reporters, said an investigation into the man's possible involvement in the consulate attack is under way.

henry

Rick B, yeah... assumption #1 the is sample representative.

Dublindave

Actually,if you want to know why Donald Trump did what he did today, you don't have to look any further than this thread; Tom suggests someone with lots of money pay a detective to prove his paranoid conspiracy theory involving ghost writers and domestic terrorists is actually true.

Jesus Christ.

We're still dealing with right-wing paranoid fantasies about Libyan cover-ups and Presidential orders to give Mexican gangs guns in an effort to roll back 2nd amendment rights.

You created Trump. He's your monster.

narciso

So it's interesting examining that email, that one of the cc's was not the Near East division chief, from what I can tell.

narciso

Sorry I meant African division, which Libya would have belonged to,

Gus

Why doesn't the Kenyan Kon man just give out those transcripts and help POOOOOOR PEOPLE!

We all know why, even our LIBTARD TROLLS.

Dublindave

"Sod off, doodoo."


Ole dubious-dubby's going to be here every day-especially election day when I get to celebrate the Democratic victory and re-election of President Barrack Hussein Obama.

Mwuahahahahaahahahahahahaha!!!!!!


Porchlight

Can someone point me to hit and run's most recent analysis of NC early voting?

Thanks. I am still in this Facebook argument with a lib. He says Dem votes are way up in NC over 2008. Am having allergy attack and can't find anything I've read in the past five days...

daddy

Here's the video of the President saying that he wants Wind Turbines manufactured in China.

Here's 2 reports on the Wind Turbines recently erected in Anchorage, due to 22 Million Taxpayer Dollars from the Feds funding the Project, saying that both the hubs and the towers came from China.

Nice to know Obama stands by wanting Wind Turbines to come from China:)

Just FYI, Armed Forces Radio tonight in Europe was "the Ed Schultz Show" followed by NPR's "All things Considered."
Am sure you will be shocked to hear that no mention whatever of Obama and wind turbines or occurred. Instead it all had to do with Mourdock and Birth control, whoever the hell he is.

Sara

Daddy: Mourdock is the R Senate candidate from Indiana who doesn't think we should kill the baby to punish the rapist.

Jane - Mock the Media!

Dudu,

Trump is what we refer to on the right as a "self-made" man. I'm sure you know no self-made men, because to get there requires lots of hard work.

We didn't create him. He created himself - something no one would ever accuse Obama of doing.

Sue

Obama has a plan to create jobs. He didn't use that plan in his first 4 years because ... shop asking questions. He has a plan.

Sue

Shop=stop

Jim Ryan

Jim Moran's son got O'Keefed.

Any chance we could get rid of Moran this November?

Janet?

narciso

Well Porch, according to hit's latest account, the vote started out at 52% Obama, the first day, and 'then became more and more selective' that AP slug I re'd earlier, came from Buzzfeed, via the Huffington Post

Sara

Texas attorney general warns UN poll watchers to keep their distance

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbot sent a letter Tuesdsay warning United Nations-affiliated poll watchers that they do not have jurisdiction in the state and will, therefore, be criminally prosecuted if they attempt to interfere at Texas polling locations on Nov. 6.



Janet

I wish, Jim. I don't think so. Nobody ever comes close to beating him.

Skoot

Mourdock also said Mother deaths during birth are rare to which CNN shot back Oh No! 650/yr!!

At 4M births thats 1.6E-4. That's not rare? I'll take that with live explosives.

And confidence basically has to do with sample size, more or less. Quality engineers carry around cards with the tables, but from memory I think to show 98% reliability at 95% confidence, you need a sample of n=151. i.e. 49/50 doesn't cut it.

narciso

From Belarus in particularly, that's insane, it's like having Bull Connor sit in;

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/10/23/CIA-Hosts-Training-By-Muslim-Brotherhood-Leader-and-Hamas-Supporter

hrtshpdbox

Porchlight, Intrade betters give Romney an 85% chance in NC, and it was never lower than 50% there (which was back in late September). Even Nate Silver gives Romney an 86% chance in NC, with his "adjusted" polling average showing a 3.7% lead for Romney. If Dem votes were "way up" over 2008, it would reflect in the polls. The Politico article claims that "early voting is outpacing" 2008 levels for both parties.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/nc-early-voting-outpacing-139231.html?hp=r7

Janet

Here's a good site - Retire Jim Moran - that keeps up with his insanity. Here's the Greatest Hits page.

"In 2006, Moran was talking about the Democrats’ chances of taking the House in 2006 (which they did) when he exclaimed, “When I become chairman [of a House appropriations subcommittee], I’m going to earmark the sh*t out of it.”"

Pure class. :(

Porchlight

Thanks htshpdbox. I saw that too but it says Dems are making gains over their 2008 totals. Not sure why that doesn't reflect in the polls.

narciso, I can find this Google result for hit's analysis that says it's in the Jimmy Carter thread but I'll be damned if I can find the actual comment. This isn't usually a problem. I think I need a break from the polling stuff!

JustOneMinute: When You've Lost Jimmy Carter... justoneminute.typepad.com/.../when-youve-lost-jimmy-carter.html?ci...1 day ago – Comments. hit and run. NC early voting update through yesterday. This makes 6 days of in person voting...with comparisons to the first full week ...
Charlie (Colorado)

Yeah, and though it's got an MOE of 2.9, it also has a "confidence level" of 95%; not sure I've heard that term before (shouldn't the "confidence level" be 97.1 if the MOE is 2.9?).

No. I can't draw a figure here so you'll have to imagine this: you've done your sample, and the number you have is, say, 51% Romney. Because you're working from a random sample, you know that there is some probability that your 51 percent is wrong, either high or low. Without going through the derivation, you can assume that that random number is itself normally distributed -- that is, the good old bell curve. You can interpret that as the chances of the real value being x for your measured value of 51 percent.

The chances are good that it's close, the chance that it's farther away is less. When you look at the size of the sample, you can compute an approximate idea of what the width of that curve is -- the bigger the sample, the narrower the curve will be, always centered around 51 percent.

From all this, you come up with a figure that says "95 percent of the time, the real value will be within this range around the mean." That is the "margin of error with a 95 percent confidence interval."

In general, when someone says "margin of error" they mean "margin of error with a 95 percent confidence interval" but formally you should specify the confidence interval.

narciso

Take my word for it, Porch, the gist of it, was the Obama vote was trending lower, hence the Spinal Tap reference.

Rick Ballard

Porchlight,

Ask your FB pal how many and which North Carolina House seats are expected to flip to the Dems as a result of Obama's victory. The current split is 7R, 6D. The expected result is 10R, 3D (with one seat rated toss up).

Early voting results should be toasted in the flames of the Ohio firewall.

MAM

Thanks to Old Lurker and Sailor for the cocktail advice - but I have never had a drink in my life and God knows, I'm not going to start now:) Although, if I had a drink, I might understand at least 50% of whatever Narciso says!!Rick, I feel better when you (and so many others)offer your insights. If I felt confident about Ohio, I would sleep better. Is that Michgan poll to be taken seriously - even a little?

Charlie (Colorado)

In other words, "50 percent with margin of error 2.9 at 95 percent confidence" means "1 time in 20, the real number with be below 47.1 percent or above 52.9 percent."

Porchlight

I believe you narciso, but I need a link.

Rick, good question. Maybe I will just ask him for links too, since he didn't provide them.

Danube of Thought on Ipad

Time magazine:

"Columbus, Ohio -Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new Time poll. Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama holds a 49% to 44% lead over Romney in a survey taken Monday and Tuesday night."

hrtshpdbox

In other words, "50 percent with margin of error 2.9 at 95 percent confidence" means "1 time in 20, the real number with be below 47.1 percent or above 52.9 percent."
Thanks, I got it (though, actually, I'd have thought it would be "below 48.55 percent or above 51.45 percent" with that MOE, but never mind that).

peter

Barry Zito can get a hit off of Verlander, but ARod and Robbie Cano couldn't. I tell you, baseball is one screwy game. And Tim McCarver is really losing it.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Trump's hair is one of the most amazing examples of coiffure of the modern age. It starts from the rear and side and what hair he has left must be @ 12-14" long the way it curves and waves over his ass bald cranium. The Donald is the king of the comb over.--

I'm almost certain that Trumps's hair is a Golden Tamarin,

or some other type of marmoset,

that Trump has slyly trained to curl up on top of his head, holding onto his ears when the wind picks up.
Must be quite a shock to the supermodels the first time the little monkey needs a bathroom break. The marmoset I mean, not Trump.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--And Tim McCarver is really losing it.

Posted by: peter | October 24, 2012 at 09:40 PM--

If you mean his brain, I think he lost that in Little League.

Sue

I'm glad I'm not emotionally invested in the Tigers.

Captain Hate

Apparently his kids have been humiliated by their fathers break from reality and have expressed deep concerns over his mental health.

Was it Satchel or Malaria that voiced these understandable fears?

squaredance

Of course Mann is nuts. Gee Whiz, you have to ask.

And that lot will get nuttier in the next couple of decades as the brute facts become absolutely impossible to ignore or rationalize away.

narciso

I see what you mean, Sue, ouch, now really has smart is it to reveal the undercover operation of
an allied agency, unless they pulling a Virgina Hill,

narciso

Wow, I don't think I've seen many arcs like that.

PD

Wow, hat trick.

Porchlight
Elliott

Panda-monium!

jorod

Dump Trump.

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