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October 11, 2012

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hit and run

2,041 comments to go until the record!

Melinda Romanoff

Baseball?

Hows about some NSA claims figures? (8 minutes)

GMAX

Here is yesterdays IBD/TIPP polling and the breakdown, its Obama then Romney then Undecided:

Democrats
86%

7%

5%
Republicans
3%

95%

1%
Ind./Other
34%

54%

12%

So Republicans are almost unanimous and there are no undecided, and Obama is losing more of Democrats than he gains Republicans. But note the 20% gap with Indys. 60 / 40 is a 20% gap and that is blowout time.

Very interesting because this poll is D +8 and it still has Romney up by 5.

Smaller sample than I would have liked and therefore MOE is 3.5%. This would foretell a blowout if replicated.

centralcal

GMax, I posted a link to Jay Cost on the Benghazi thread that explains what Gallup is doing to alter its methodolgy and why it has Cost (and now I am seeing, Nate Silver too) upset.

I think you might be interested in reading it.

GMAX

Another interesting question in the IBD/TIPP poll, who did you vote for in 2008

Obama
83%

9%

8%
McCain
2%

94%

4%

As we suspected virtually no McCain voters going for Obama but he is leaking 9% of previous supporter. When you only got 53% to start with, that gets you beat like a drum.

centralcal

GMax, here is a link to my comment, hope it works!

GMAX

Perhaps the most interesting of all is the Undecided. Combined Zero is leaking 17% ( 9% plus 8% ) which matches up pretty close to what RAS is finding on his partisan self ID survey, Zero has chased almost 20% of Democrats out of the Democrat Party.

That and a resurgent and determined Republican base for ABO should be another resounding poll result for common sense and fiscal responsibility. We need to help Josh Mandel over the finish line in AHIA.

hrtshpdbox

339k jobless claims another proBama from the Labor Dep't; I wonder how long until the numbers are questioned.

centralcal

Now, even Drudge is linking to the Jay Cost piece about Gallup changing its methodology just 4 weeks from the election.

Melinda Romanoff

box-

Kernan chattering that he would expect it to drop to 139K by election week. Pretty funny.

centralcal

About those jobless claims...

John Podhoretz ‏@jpodhoretz

Interesting. A "large state" somehow failed to report its unemployment claims, thus making number lower! What state?

centralcal

Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass

" Labor Dept said one large state didnt report additional quarterly figures as expected, accouning for a substantial part of the decrease."

hrtshpdbox

Kernan chattering...

After Santelli was upstaged in his prediction that the last unemployment number before the election would be 7.9 (it came a month early and a tenth lower). If that number was a legitimate anomaly instead of home-baked, the Nov 2 number might revert to reality - 8 or 8.1 would be a heckuva cooler four days before the election.

Melinda Romanoff

Shocking, I know, but it looks like somewhere close to me. Hmmmmm.

GMAX

I am sure DOT will want to interrogate Jay Cost, why he is making a serious accusation against GALLUP:


http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-politics-and-gallup-poll_654143.html?page=2

Final point: We absolutely, positively must remember polling in 2012 is politicized as never before, and it is incumbent upon the consumers of political polls not to accept the data naïvely, but to perform due diligence to see what goes into the product.

Jay is absolutely right, and quite devastating in his understated way...

hrtshpdbox

I wonder how long until the numbers are questioned.

John Podhoretz ‏@jpodhoretz

Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass

It was a mercifully short wait!

narciso

So we have a moderator, who was formerly married to a Obama cabinet official, and according to one account, Obama was at her wedding, or vice versa.

Captain Hate

Labor Dept said one large state didnt report additional quarterly figures as expected, accouning for a substantial part of the decrease.

And this was omitted from the original release of the numbers? Were the Soviets this disingenuous.

Jack is Back

Varney just said there is one state's numbers missing from the unemployment number and he has never seen that before. He doesn't know which state but the numbers are lacking.

Creative accounting still lives. Ole!

narciso

So the NBC poll, went Tufnel again, when can we expect the collapsing stonehenge on set.

Melinda Romanoff

I've seen it before, BTW.

Ranger

And this was omitted from the original release of the numbers?

It is way past time to clean house in DC. Unfortunately, the way that usually works in the decent, hard working people get fired, and the hacks stick around.

narciso

Seriously Charlene Lamb, was particularly loathsome yesterday,

http://datechguyblog.com/2012/10/11/realville-nbc-joins-the-poll-truther-brigade/

dublindave

"So we have a moderator, who was formerly married to an Obama cabinet official, and according to one account, Obama was at her wedding, or vice versa."


So we can add 'the war on moderators' to 'the war on dead navy seal's moms','the war on Polls', 'the war on the bureau of labor statistics', 'the war on women who are a little too easy to rape'???????

NK

Where did the Labor Dept announce one 'large' state didn't report? I didn't see it in their press release.

NK

DD-- please get accustomed to the fact it's not 2008, and the current Repubs are not McRino. Part of that means that the Repubs/Right are not going to take the Left/Dem shite of 'journalists' claiming to be independent, when in fact they are on the same team as the Dems. We will expose their lyin' arses so voters know not to take the the media seriously. HOPE AND CHANGE!

dublindave

See Fox news are trying their best to destroy Martha Raditz reputation...she should take this to heart and ask Ryan why he tried to re-define rape in a house bill. I mean if they're going to destroy you, Martha, you might as well make weasel boy get tangled up in the difference between 'foreseeable raper' and enforceable rape' or as one of Ryan prodigies and close friends recently explained" women who rape easy".

DebinNC

Anti-Muhammed film guy was in court yesterday. In case murderous jihadis missed it, the news gal helpfully told them he'd be back in court on Nov. 9 at 2:00 p.m.. And to make killing Nakoula as easy as possible, the news video features multiple court sketch artist renderings of his face/head from both front and side.

dublindave

sorry...'forceable' and 'statutory rape'

narciso

They probably dropped California off the list, we see how practically all the states with the lowest rates, are Republicans, with Oregon being the exception.


Ranger

BTW, Obama has expereinced an epic collapse in his EC numbers. He was up around 260 before last weekend. Now he's down to 201. Has any national candidate lost that many projected EC votes in less than a week?

Rick Ballard

Suggested reading:

Trende on Obama Bandwagon

Cost on Gallup

NBC/Marist Ohio Poll Sample

A D+11 sample for Ohio is propaganda, not polling. NBC/Marist is attempting to put wheels back on the Obama bandsledge.

I read the Gallup attempted manipulation as more of an attempt to establish a 'Victory in Defeat' narrative for the election aftermath than an attempt to influence the outcome. They join PEW in the propaganda war concerning a non-voting "majority", too stupid and lazy to vote but deserving recognition in order to validate the Dems as 'the voice of the people'.

Jim Ryan

Ryan: domestic econ policy, young man, no foreign policy experience.

Biden: foreign relations policy man.

Debate topic: foreign relations.

If Biden doesn't beat Ryan by a knockout, then he may as well tattoo L on his forehead. If it's a perceived tie, Ryan wins. "He has no FP experience and held his own against Joe Biden!"

narciso

As I pointed out on the other thread, this is reminiscent of the Somalian debacle, which we later came to discover was an AQ operation.

Rob Crawford
Now, even Drudge is linking to the Jay Cost piece about Gallup changing its methodology just 4 weeks from the election.

It's simply impossible that they changed their methodology; I've been assured repeatedly that what they do is SCIENCE! and not subject to political, social, or business pressure.

And again, I bang on the table and demand to know where the polls are that slant Republican, despite that demand being utterly meaningless!

narciso

Masterminded by two of AQ's top commanders, one of them, Seyf al Adel, is still alive, possibly still in Iran.

Melinda Romanoff

Ebert pulls a Pauline Kael. I'm not going to link to his tweet because of the black hole-like potentiality of teh stupid.

dublindave

"If Biden doesn't beat Ryan by a knockout, then he may as well tattoo L on his forehead. If it's a perceived tie, Ryan wins. "He has no FP experience and held his own against Joe Biden!"'


Biden is seriously going to cream Eddie Munster for his pro-rape stances.

Rob Crawford

Melinda, Ebert should retire and live out his remaining days with whatever dignity he has left.

Danube of Thought

Minus 11 at Raz today.

Leads Romney by 1.

Melinda Romanoff

He lost half of his mind when Siskel was diagnosed.

Rob Crawford

When did the other half go?

NK

****URGENT***URGENT***URGENT***--
EMERGENCY DT INTERVENTION TEAM TO THE DRUNK WARD-- STAT!!!... Hold on DublinDave EDTIT is on its way, just hold on a few more seconds- keep your hands away from the keyboard, and breath deeply..that's it.. just a few more seconds and EDTIT will be on scene with oxygen, sedatives...and... a straightjacket (so you don't hurt yourself.)Now repeat after me... Biden will beclown himself tonight... but it's all good...

narciso

Tomorrow is the 12th Anniversary of the Cole bombing, and this happens in Sanaa today.

Melinda Romanoff

Left in the vacuum of the first half's demise.

Captain Hate

Siskel was the real brains behind "At The Movies". Fat Egbert did a touching tribute for him and has been worthless since then. I enjoyed it when A. E. Scott and Michael Phillips did it before the Disney Stasi took it off the air.

Melinda Romanoff

Drudge reporting that US Embassy in Vienna got Volts, a $100K charge station, while the Libyan embassy got, what's that again?

NK

AQ is definitely big on anniversaries and numerology. When is the shoe bomber anniversary? maybe a good idea not to fly that day.

NK

didn't the Libya Embassy get same sex partner hiring outreach, or something equally as vita?

NK

vita = vital

jimmyk

As we suspected virtually no McCain voters going for Obama but he is leaking 9% of previous supporter. When you only got 53% to start with, that gets you beat like a drum.

It's still all about turnout. Applying those numbers to the the 53-46 from '08 puts both of them at around 43%. The real problem for Barry is the 5 or 10 percent who won't turn out for him, versus the similar number who stayed home in '08 and will come out for Romney. At least that's my prediction and I'm sticking with it. And given the cutbacks in exit polling, I'm confident I won't be proved wrong.

Jane - Mock the media

What outraged me was that they increased the pay for our personnel in Libya due to the increase in danger and decreased the security. Someone should be in jail.

Ranger

I think it might be dawning on Althouse that "He's just not that smart, and he's a liar."

Even if Obama thought first — or even only — about reelection, how could he have chosen to lie the way he did about Libya?

Though, if you read it very closely, I think what Ann is really unhappy about is that Obama has managed to trash Hil's future career plans.

laff trac

"Biden is seriously going to cream Eddie Munster"

deadbeatdave = Comedy Gold!!!

Danube of Thought

I would dearly love to interrogate Cost--perhaps he would even answer my questions--but he is not available. I might start with a discussion of the following:

"Whether or not this has altered the Romney-Obama head-to-head numbers among likely and registered voters, I cannot say.

"I also cannot speak to the merits of the change in methodology. Back in June, I thought there was less than met the eye to Blumenthal's critiques of Gallup. And I thought Gallup thought the same thing. Maybe the polling outlet changed its mind. Maybe it had other reasons for making the change. Who knows? "

If he can't say whether it affects the head-to-head, and in any event is agnostic as to the merits of the change, there wouldn't be a great deal to talk about.

If anyone has suggested that polling is pure science, I am unaware of it.

jimmyk

DoT, there is also this:

What Gallup should have done is similar to what the Bureau of Labor Statistics does when it adjusts the unemployment rate to account for new Census data: Give the number as it is now calculated and as it would have been calculated absent the change, so everybody can know exactly what effect the changes in assumptions have had.

One of your claims, I believe, has been that even if the polls are biased, they are consistent over time, so if they are moving in a particular direction, that is meaningful. That is not the case with these changes in methodology, and Cost's point is simply that it would be helpful to gauge the impact of the changes.

Melinda Romanoff

It suddenly occurred to me. Are we seeing a Beltway battle between the Administration and Petraeus pop to the surface?

Starting to smell like it.

hit and run

DoT:
Minus 11 at Raz today.
Leads Romney by 1.

Strong Approve from 9/27 to 10/9 (13 days) was between 28 and 30. Yesterday's was 34. Today back to 30.

Before yesterday, Obama had not been as high as 34 in Strong Approve since . . . wait for it . . . April 10.

2010.

The last time he hit 33 was March 31.

2010.

He did hit 32 twice on Sep 9 and 10 this year. But before that? April 30.

2010.

As far as Strong Approve goes, let's call yesterday an outlier.

But don't worry. Biden will change all that tonight.

Danube of Thought

Cost is aghast that Gallup finds 53% approval among adults. Among likely voters, Rasmussen finds 51% approval, and Battleground 50%. Those three figures tend to corroborate one another.

Quite a conspiracy.

NK

I agree with JimmyK-- IMO Bam loses more votes to STAYHOMES than flippers to RR.IMO about 4-5M 2008 Bam voters will stay home (black, youth and single white women) and 2-3 Million (some Dems, some repubs mostly Indies) flip to RR. RR's path to victory is turning out the conservatives who didn't vote for McRino in 2008, especialy in Fla and Ohio, plus adding new Indies who are disgusted by Bam. I think RR are doing that. Tonight Ryan needs to excite conservatives and new Indies and reassure seniors. I think he'll do just that.

Thomas Collins

Ranger, I think there is a simple answer to Althouse's question: The strategy's center of gravity was that the majority of persuadables in battleground states would be left with the impression that the attack was because of the movie. The first impression is what was most important. Some persuadables will follow the hearings, but most will have their brains stuck on the movie. Those following this closely enough to realize the deceit and incompetence of Obama aren't as likely to change their vote from Obama to Romney as the low info persuadables would have been if the jihadist nature of the Egyptian and Libyan attacks had been acknowledged up front.

All Jarrett and Axelrod care about is getting another term for Obama to provide him with flexibility in both domestic and foreign policy.

By the way, is there any doubt that an Administration that has acted in this manner will, if the Electoral College count on November 7th is 268 Obama/270 Romney, use blackmail and any other possible technique to turn electors?

Danube of Thought

"Cost's point is simply that it would be helpful to gauge the impact of the changes."

I agree with that. I also agree the change should not have been made at this point, although if they had an ulterior motive I doubt they would have disclosed the change and its particulars.

Captain Hate

Sorry about that link caused by this damn laptop keyboard

http://www.sunshinestatesarah.com/2012/10/unbelievable-ambassadorrices-actual.html

DebinNC

Drudge is currently featuring this Ryan work-out pic from last Dec. because Time is reprising the article. Why? To make Ryan seem "anti-fat" for all the corpulent ladies watching? To make Ryan seem more interested in himself than the nation? Whatever the mag's up to, it isn't meant to help RR.

NK

DoT-- I'm a big fan of Cost-- I think he's knowledgeable, smart, sober and he very much wants to avoid overly optimistic group think. Hey-- he's alot like DoT. I agree with Cost that the Gallup racial sample change is an obvious attempt to skew the poll result in a way that will not reflect what will happen on election day. Poll readers are on to party splits, so Gallup skewed this sample racially. Pretty obvious manipulation-- why'd they do it? That's the real question -- and Cost doesn't allege he knows why, but he's right to call out Gallup.

narciso

Funny thing about this month in their calendar, it's the month of truce, as in
Hadaibiya (sic) it's also the one of the greatest battles, the Battle of the Trench,
by Mohammed in the Yathrib valley, featuring among others, a certain Abu Sufyan.

PD

So we can add 'the war on moderators' to 'the war on dead navy seal's moms','the war on Polls', 'the war on the bureau of labor statistics', 'the war on women who are a little too easy to rape'???????

There's certainly a war on brain cells going on.

narciso

Even when they inflate the chocolate ration, they have problems


http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/ny-timescbs-poll-now-includes-wisconsin-as-swing-state/

NK

Islamic "truce"-- interesting concept. True the Prophet ordered that amongst Muslims, treaties and promises must be kept. But of course, militant Imams explain that since protecting and expanding the Ummah to the whole world is the purpose of Islam, truces should be entered into where islam is weak and defensive, but when the enemy weakens and Islam is strong, muslims (especially jihadis) are obligated to void treaties/truces with nonbelievers and infidels in order to serve the greater purpose of expanding the Ummah. Where this gets really messy is between shia and sunni-- and the whole definition of who is legitimately muslim.

Captain Hate

Twitch discovers that water is wet: Ted Stickland, Obama campaign spokesman admits that the JEF failed miserably, or possibly succeeded magnificantly at dividing the nation by saying: "The electorate is extremely polarized."

DebinNC

AP gives a lot of info re Paul Ryan's debate prep. There are only a few direct quotes, so there's no telling how reliable it is. One thing I didn't know was that tonight the two will be seated, probably to hide Ryan's energy/fitness advantage.

Ranger

Another issue that might come up during the next couple of debates:

Green-jobs subsidies bust: $21 billion, 28,854 jobs

It cost almost $728,000 per job in subsidies at that rate of job creation.

And it appears that Solyndra was organized from the very start as a tax dodge.

Obama's in there every day fighting for the 1%.

We should start a list of all the 1%ers that Obama's managed to protect under his administration.

Clarice

DoT, Jay Cost is on twitter and you can reach him there or by emailing him at the Weekly Standard.

jimmyk

Poll readers are on to party splits, so Gallup skewed this sample racially. Pretty obvious manipulation-- why'd they do it? That's the real question -- and Cost doesn't allege he knows why, but he's right to call out Gallup.

I tend to share DoT's skepticism that Gallup would do this for nefarious political reasons, as if it ends up being inaccurate it will only harm their reputation, which is all they have. I guess it's possible they could be swayed by criticism, but I wouldn't think they could be swayed to do something that they know is obviously less accurate. I do agree with Cost that they should be more transparent.

PD

and the whole definition of who is legitimately muslim

Hence the interesting result that Muslim violence most affects ... other Muslims.

narciso

You knowv if only Foggy Bottom, had someone who knew such things, they would avoid such inconveniences, well if Obama had been elected, wait what?

xbradtc

Here's a little update on Biden's debate prep:

http://twitpic.com/b34ln7

narciso

So, at best, Gallup is being lazy, but it's curious how that leans one way, doesn't it.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--which is all they have--

Well, to be fair, they also have a lawsuit filed by a former Obama campaign worker, which Obama's DOJ has joined and is pushing.

Rob Crawford
I think it might be dawning on Althouse that "He's just not that smart, and he's a liar."

She'll still vote for him.

NK

jimmyK-- Gallup apparently doesn't care about their elcetion poll accuracy, I believe they were the least accurate final 2010 result polling service. This racial change in surveys starting 5 weeks before the election is unrelated to the voter pool that will actually vote. Is Gallup saying we poll people, even those who should vote but don't? who knows? they don't explain their 'proprietary' methodology. Jay Cost doesn't claim to know why they did this, he was right to call them out on this change of methodology.

rse

Free at last?

Ranger

TC,

I agree with your take on why ObamaCo lied. And I have no doubt they would pull out all the stops to win. But I don't think they realize the damage a constitutional crisis would do to their party. And it probably wouldn't work.

It's up to the House to accept or reject the EC result, and blatant changes like that would put huge presure on the House to reject the result and choose the president by a poll of the delegations.

rse

Can anybody else see me?

I'll try for 2 lines-do I exist if I am locked out of JOM?

Ranger

She'll still vote for him.

Very possibly. She strikes me as not that smart. Her refusal, after everything that's happend over the last 4 years, to admit her vote for Obama last time was a mistake is very telling.

NK

Welcome back rse!

PS: yes Althouse will vote for Bam, she'll concoct some nonsense about Bam learning on the job and RR being too slick- some nonsense.

narciso

Hey, rse, I've been linking your latest posts, as they have come up, I've felt that sense of limbo, before.

Clarice

rse,welcome back!!!

Danube of Thought

which Obama's DOJ has joined and is pushing.

It is routine for the government to join a False Claims Act suit that includes allegations of fraud against government agencies. I'm not aware of anything they're doing to push it; so far as I know they have not yet served process on Gallup.

marlene

Hi rse! Welcome back!

NK

DoT-- remember the summer 2012 emails-- gallup officials emailed each other concerning the pressure they were getting from dems about their survey results. The bravado in those emails were that they would ignore the pressure and then defend against the lawsuit. Now this?

narciso

Yes, it's just ' a nudge, nudge' as Mr. Samantha Power, Cass Susstein would recommend, you know Luigi Vercotti style, just ask Moody and S&P.

DebinNC

AP: A Labor Department spokesman cautioned that the weekly applications can be volatile, particularly at the start of a quarter. And the spokesman said one large state accounted for much of the decline. The spokesman did not name the state.

An earlier report BLS saying one state had not reported its stats. So the "one large state" alluded to in the quote above, which "accounted for much of the decline," is a different state which did report its stats, but the BLS refuses to name it? I'm confused. Are there two unidentified states - one yet to provide BLS its stats and another which had most of the unemployment changes which BLS is hiding from the public? Could it be that VA is hiring ObamaCare bureaucrats like crazy and BOzo wants voters not to know?

rse

I guess Tom found me and fixed the problem. My thanks kind sir.

I have picked up traffic considerably since the debate. It is as if the debate charged people up to take a solid look at what was going to have to be fixed. If Romney could not win I suppose many were afraid to know.

Yesterday hundreds were coming in to read about the Regional Equity Movement. Don't know what set it off although I sent an email to Kurtz at NRO after his Ohio story with the link to the Distributive Justice/ destroy the Unitary Self story. And pointing out the Model T foundation's activity in the area.

And I heard from a reader about a fight over systems thinking where the Super complained about the power of ill-educated bloggers.

Jack is Back

You're on, rse.

Rob Crawford
I tend to share DoT's skepticism that Gallup would do this for nefarious political reasons, as if it ends up being inaccurate it will only harm their reputation, which is all they have.

And just who is going to hold them to their reputation?

The press will keep going back to them -- because they're giving the press what they want.

Many, many years ago I worked for a company that, well, "counts cars". They track auto registrations to enable recalls and to give the auto makers an idea of how to sell their products. As I was told the story (it happened before I got there) one of the auto makers was pushing the idea that their buyers are the most satisfied, because they kept buying their cars -- "owner loyalty". They wanted numbers to back up that claim.

So a whole bunch of people got to crunching numbers... and came up with a methodology that showed what the auto maker wanted to show. Was it accurate? Sure -- for what it did. Was it reality? Who knows -- it was what the customer was paying for, though.

We've got polls assuming Democrat party identification and turnout ABOVE 2008 levels -- and people think there's an "innocent" or "coincidental" explanation? Bluntly: are you retarded?

These assumptions aren't the RESULTS of the polling, they're the INPUTS. The polling companies are using garbage INPUTS. Why? Because a) that's what their customers want, b) they've been cowed into doing it, and c) they'll not suffer a penalty for it.

You live in a world in which Joe Biden is not only still in office, but got elected vice-president, and Sarah Palin is considered a joke, and you think reputation is tied to reality? Your reputation is what the press wants it to be. They want you to be a saint, they make you a saint. They want you to be a demon, they make you a demon. Truth? History? Your actual behavior? Meaningless.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Powerful ad on Barry's desire to deprive live babies of medical care, which is by any definition the most repulsive infanticide. Includes a lovely young gal who survived despite Barry's fervent wishes.

Anyone think maybe the Dems want to invent a fanciful war on women to avoid discussing their real one on babies?

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