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October 15, 2012

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Danube of Thought

And they didn't even include me in the survey.

NK

TomM-- excellent Kent "Flounder" Dorfman reference. I salute you.

rse

Uh-Oh then.

Time to reform. Well maybe 2013.

matt

Considering that PBS recently ran a multi episode documentary on alcohol in America, we are nowhere close to as dunk as we used to be.

Our grandparents would consider us a bunch of quiche eating super vita water drinking ponces.

matt

drunk...pass me a beer, would ya?

Thomas Collins

But most importantly, the entertainers we worship are getting more "in your face" with each other on reality shows. See LUN.

rse

And I heard from my eldest last night. I get to go to a graduation this Friday. One that goes boom.

NK

OT-- the RCP people seem honest and transparent. But this year, IMO, they are being victimized by media polls that are corrupt (in terms of data samples). So unfortunately, through no fault of their own RCP's 'averages' are useless.

NK

Matt-- the PBS Prohibition docuentary was fascinating. I don't know enough history of the era to know if the whole documentary was accurate, but the history I do know was told accurately.

Danube of Thought

This is the year of the data sample--I don't believe the splits in the samples have ever received anything like this kind of scrutiny before. And when this is over, there's going to be one hell of a post-mortem on this subject.

I think we will see some major changes in polling techniques in the next four years. Anyone today who puts up a national survey with a D+9 sample is subject to immediate and widespread criticism, if not ridicule. They can't like that at all.

daddy

Good Morning.

Just awoke, and put on the radio headsets awaiting hour 1 of Rush.

The News (I think ABC) was talking about how the 9/11 trials are beginning for 5 of the plotters. The ABC reporterette was saying how hard it was for everyone in the courtroom because the 5 were openly mocking the process and everyone involved, being disrespectful by sneers and body language and interruptions.

It struck me immediately that the behavior that many so loved last week of "Joe being Joe", is now somehow completely unacceptable and worthy of criticism when it is being used by somebody other than their personal political champions. Funny how that weeks.

Perhaps we'll get a chance tomorrow night to see if they're outraged all over again at sneering and mocking and disrespectful behavior.

Chubby

if a person's fat or drinks to escape reality that is nothing imo, as long as they are honest, ethical, kind, have a sense of humor. There are far too many bald liars and character assassins in the nation, who think nasty derision is a great debate skill. The character assassination of Bush, Palin, and the constant lies about Romney --"Romney is a liar" being the entire Obama campaign -- is a serious, poisonous problem, that far outweighs the nation's girth.

DebinNC

Politico notes Issa's claim that the BOzo State Dept. is sitting on $2.2 billion in unspent money designated for embassy security:

"The fact is, they [the State Department.] are making the decision not to put the security in because they don't want the presence of security," Issa said. "That is not how you do security."

lyle

Americans drink less than the Rooskies. Cold war won.

Thomas Collins

Apparently offensive linemen eat and drink a healthy balanced diet. They just eat and drink a little more than most. See LUN.

NK

DoT-- let's watch the pollsters the last 3 weeks. Do they use credible LV and turnout models? will the LV/turnout pool members respond to polsters? The very low response rate (11%) may be an insurmountable problem for many polls.

Rick Ballard

"the RCP people seem honest and transparent"

NK,

The sales staff at SCAM, Inc. has asked to try and set up an appointment with you. In particular, SCAM has several deferred return products which seem a perfect fit for the client profile suggested by your remarks.

Porchlight

Agree with NK and DoT. The RCP averages were useful in 2004 and 2008 when they were mostly under the radar, but now that they're widely touted they have become subject to gaming via junk polls using junk samples. So today we have a single D+9 poll bringing the average back to even. Yet another useful tool now compromised.

NK

RickB-- hopefully that winds up in my SPAMBOX, so I don't fall for the con. Good thing I sent that donation in response to the email last week from the young man who lost has passport and wallet in Scotland.

Thomas Collins

The supermodel diet doesn't seem any healthier than the offensive lineman diet. And if Heidi Klum is to be believed, a supermodel may be just as likely to enjoy a Big Mac and fries as an offensive lineman. See LUN.

PD

Apparently Obama's advisors want to make sure he brings up Romney's tax returns again tomorrow night? I can imagine how that would go.

R: Are you suggesting that I did something illegal?

O: ...

R: Then what would be the point?

O: ...

R: Look, maybe you have a problem with the tax laws? But that's an entirely different issue. And if you don't like the tax laws, why didn't you do anything about them for the last four years? And if you did nothing for the last four years, why would anyone thing you'll do anything in the next four?

Extraneus

Americans drink less than the Rooskies. Cold war won.

Who won?

GMAX

Asdk yourself this? Is Rasmussen corrupt? If the answer is no, and at least one of us has been beating that drum consistently for months, then is he incompetent ( probably not since 2008 he was the absolute most accurate ). Why? Cuz he has a monthly poll which clearly shows an adult population based on very large sample of 15,000 and corresponding low MOE that is R + and has been R + for the entire year.

Now consider that fact and your answers, and ask why not one single pollster is showing a r + correction to their sample. NOT ONE. I dont think there is even a pollster which is using 2004 or an even number of Democrats versus Republicans. Instead, there are plenty who have Democrats exceeding 2008 Democrat intensity, despite there being clear indicators of both intensity and identification which would say that can not happen.

Why is that? Well I can add that the polls are being paid for by the media and by Universities and a couple foundations. Figure that into your witches brew.

Its a puzzler, I tell ya.

Frau Prost!

Those of us who remember this in Hillary!'s hands have a reason to drink.

Thomas Collins

Rooskies win if Obama gets a second term, Extraneus. Rooskies get to continue to guzzle while Obama degrades our strategic arsenal.

Charlie (Colorado)

Look, the real issue with the RCP average is the fact that they think an average of the polls is meaningful. But if we assume they're approximately normally distributed and independent, the sum of random variables has a variance equal to the sum of the variances. That means the sum of the SQUARE of the standard deviations.

In effect, what that means is that when you add these together, you widen the margin of error very quickly. So the average ends up somewhere in the middle of the center values of the polls, but margin of error rapidly grows until the number is basically useless.

derwill

During colonial times the New England settlers went about half-potted on home-brewed spruce beer, because they wouldn't drink the water. By this point in time, they'd made something of a tenuous connection between drinking water and disease, but they didn't realize that it was the bacteria in the water in England from seeping sewage that made drinking water there a bad thing, and so they assumed all those as yet unpolluted creeks and rivers running through the American wilderness were also dangerous to drink.

Jim Ryan

Stats: the badassest math of them all.

NK

I'm with CharlieCo-- the RCP averaging can become useless quickly if the polls they average tend to skew in the same direction as they have in 2012-- so far.

GMAX

Not to mention that you blend in polls taken of Adults, of Registered Voters and Likely Voters all together. Take apples, oranges and bananas and mix them all together and you get fruit salad! And then pretend its something more than it is, dont forget. As if together it magically got cool whip and cherries added in.

Porchlight

From Kos, oh so delicious:

Markos @markos Bank it: Our PPP poll will have the most pessimistic Obama numbers of the week.


I can't quite figure any of this out now. Yes, Obama gave a bad debate performance (no point arguing this), and Romney gave a good one. But the shift in polls over the past two weeks has made little sense. I mean, if you're an independent, Obama may have come across as Milquetoast, but he certainly didn't say or do anything disqualifying or viscerally awful. He was just ... blah. .

The people who should have been angriest about Obama's debate are his supporters who were maddeningly frustrated that he didn't give the fight to Romney. But why the heck would independents care so much? I just don't know why the polls budged at all, based on the lack of any stylistic or even substantive home runs two weeks ago. TWO WEEKS AGO!

Ah, that's just it. We're still talking about a debate that happened two weeks ago. And even if we stop here at Daily Kos, it's still being discussed everywhere else. And that's why it continues to hurt. I just don't know why it's hurt THIS much.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144831/-Markos-Teases-Bad-Polling-News?showAll=yes

Threadkiller

They should market cheap beer in 6oz cans.

If it works for soda....

Thomas Collins

Well, derwill, I went to college in New England and, at least where I went, students still trusted the ingredients in beer more than in New England water straight up!

Jim Ryan

John Adams was served hard cider every morning at Harvard. Fortifying, you see. Lucky bastard.

NK

Markos-- he's preparing the Kosites (what's left of them) for the simple truth-- Bam will lose.

Janet

On FB -

Captain Hate

Tammy Bruce just brought up an excellent point that should sooth the apprehensions about the debate tomorrow night. The JEF is stuck running around like a mink in heat trying to figure out what "act" of his will work tomorrow. Because what you saw in the first debate was the real Obama: A disengaged, passive, uninvolved dithering imbecile who doesn't think well in real time. What you saw from Romney was the real Mitt; he doesn't have to change a single thing.

I don't think Crowley can save him.

Janet

One more -

Rick Ballard

GMax,

Isn't it closer to establishing the 'sell by' date on three gallons of spoiled milk, two gallons fresh milk and three quarts of vinegar after carefully mixing them?

I don't believe honest/dishonest apllies wrt RCP. Is the county dump honest or dishonest? How about the huge manure pile next to Farmer John's dairy barn? Honest? Or dishonest?

I know for sure that it's been wearisome to peck through the manure piles to find any edible seeds this year.

Porchlight

From reports, Obama's been holed up for several days practicing and Romney only 1-2 days - the rest of the time he's been out on the trail. Which candidate is more worried, do you think?

Agree NK about Kos.

GMAX

Here is a pretty good analysis based on the semi annual self ID polling of Gallup. Its of Adults and measures a bunch of swing states for the margin of Ds over Rs in 2008 per the appropriate Gallup poll of that time with the one that they did of Jan - June 2012. It computes the net change ( almost all are big R + changes ) and then the last number is the margin Zero won by. Based on this Michigan could be a bridge too far, and it might be a jump ball in Pennsylvania. Other than that, it would appear to argue strongly ADVANTAGE ROMNEY. Here:


NC
2008 D+11
2012 R+0
Diff R+11
2008 margin D+0

FL
2008 D+9
2012 D+1
Diff R+8
2008 margin D+3

VA
2008 D+9
2012 R+3
Diff R+12
2008 margin D+6

CO
2008 D+11
2012 R+5
Diff R+16
2008 margin D+9

OH
2008 D+18
2012 D+4
Diff R+14
2008 margin D+5

NH
2008 D+13
2012 R+2
Diff R+15
2008 margin D+10

IA
2008 D+18
2012 D+2
Diff R+16
2008 margin D+10

NV
2008 D+11
2012 R+4
Diff R+15
2008 margin D+12

WI
2008 D+18
2012 D+3
Diff R+15
2008 margin D+14

PA
2008 D+16
2012 D+6
Diff R+10
2008 margin D+10

MI
2008 D+17
2012 D+11
Diff R+6
2008 margin D+16

glasater

Can't find where I saw a headline but an O supporter said of all things...Obama will throw some spears in tomorrow night's debate....

Sue

I went back and looked at RCP's numbers for the 2004 and 2008 presidential campaign and they were very close to the final outcome in both. Have they changed how they are doing it this time around?

Chubby

re Kos konfusion: maybe people are getting sick and tired of the negative attacks from he who promised to change the tone of politics. As Obama slanders others as liars, Obama himself becomes a walking, talking, living lie himself.

Porchlight

Not that I know of, Sue. It's just that the really junky polls are more frequent now, thus the averages are less reflective of reality.

Also, part of the reason that they are close in the end is that nearly all pollsters get religion close to the election. The question is how much can the partisan pollsters move opinion in the months leading up to the election. Expect WaPo and others to "suddenly" realize in late October that the electorate will not be D+9 on Nov. 6th.

PD

kos: But the shift in polls over the past two weeks has made little sense. I mean, if you're an independent, Obama may have come across as Milquetoast, but he certainly didn't say or do anything disqualifying or viscerally awful. He was just ... blah.

kos hasn't figured out that people recognize what he calls "blah" is really the complete and utter failure of Obama to perform when faced with actual questions that he has to answer, as opposed to the media fellating he normally gets.

Jim Ryan

STAFFER #1: What about Bain? We could go with Bain.

OBAMA: [FACEPALM] No.

STAFFER #1: The 47%?

OBAMA: [FACEPALM] What? Oh. No.

STAFFER #1: I'm kinda stumped.

OBAMA: [LOOKING UP] How about how I handled the assassination of the ambassador, what's his name? I got on camera, I handled it.

STAFFER #1:

OBAMA: Wouldn't that work?

STAFFER #2: [MAKES A MUFFLED SOUND]

OBAMA: What is it, Alan?

STAFFER #2: Nothing, sir.

STAFFER #1: Um, sir-

OBAMA: Let's go with that. That and Bain. Let's do your 47%, too. Do all of it. Wrap that up and get Vicki to type it up. I need to start memorizing this shit after I get back.

STAFFER #1: Sir-

OBAMA: I have to go, Phyllis. T-time is now.

Ranger

Have they changed how they are doing it this time around?

No, but others have figured out how to game their methodology.

I first noticed this in 2010 when periodicly one Dem polling firm or another would drop a new poll showing Dems with a big lead in party preference for congress, keeping the RCP averave close, when the reliable polls were showing a big lead for Republicans.

This year you can see it with the Presidential race. When ever political gravity has taken over Obama's numbers, there will be a poll dropped that bumped him back into the lead in the averages. The latest WaPo polls is a clasic example.

Captain Hate

Bingo PD. The people who voted for the JEF in 2008 and now are feeling stupid and misled were looking for a reason to throw away their votes again; and the mincing idiot just stood there stuttering away.

Rick Ballard

Sue,

Take a look at the 2008 October 16th polls. Ras had Obama +6 while PEW was still spitting out Obama +14 propaganda. PEW still gets a ribbon for being so "close" at the finish line.

The propaganda pollsters are running rescue polls this week but they'll change next week as they jockey for a "close" ribbon.

Sue

Has anyone indicated what Ambassador Stevens was doing in Behnghazi that day/night?

maryrose

Sorry about New Mexico.
CH: Mandel and Brown are debating dow ntown today near Cleveland State where I will be attending my class. Plain Dealer{yellow journalism rag} endorsed Brown today before the debate. His wife used to be a columnist for them Why am I not surprised?
I still think Mandel has a chance. I have seen 0 Brown signs here in Rocky River and only 2 Obama signs. Such a difference from 4 years ago.

Rob Crawford
Obama's been holed up for several days practicing chain smoking

FTFY.

PD

What's that sound I hear?

Oh, yeah. It's the sound of assembly lines humming again.

DebinNC

Has anyone indicated what Ambassador Stevens was doing in Behnghazi that day/night?

Reportedly, Stevens was there to view plans for a new cultural center and improvements to a hospital.

PD

Or maybe it's just my tinnitus.

Captain Hate

I'm still holding out hope for Josh, maryrose; my statement was more of an "I don't know wtf is going on" than anything else. Yes I'm looking forward to Sherwood having to spend time with Connie "Fatass" Schultz before he realizes why her ex-husband is the most relieved person in the world.

fdcol63

Any hope that the Kos Kidz will pull a Heaven's Gate?

Sue

Reportedly, Stevens was there to view plans for a new cultural center and improvements to a hospital.

I ask because it was brought up by a democratic pundit during the noon hour that we still don't know what he was doing there and how they knew he was going to be there to pre-plan the attack.

Chubby

he also entertained an ambassador from Turkey that evening, and there was video of him saying good night to him. Forget where I read that.

Porchlight

Heh, but I don't want them to, fdcol63 - their real living tears are so enjoyable.

JerryRigged

Uh, I kinda like going thru life Fat and Drunk (definitely the drunk part)...it's stupid, fat and drunk I wouldn't be able to stand...

Sue

The implication from the fool from SC that always shows up with Brad Blakeman to give us the stupid side of any debate said the above. Like it was something other than what we have been told. Secretive, even.

Melinda Romanoff

Anybody catch Frank Rich's sign off on "Liberalism/Progressivism as a political strategy?

Clarice

kos doesn't get it. The debate just hardened the views of voters that Obama just hasn't done the job.

Old Lurker

NK: "RickB-- hopefully that winds up in my SPAMBOX, so I don't fall for the con. Good thing I sent that donation in response to the email last week from the young man who lost has passport and wallet in Scotland."

No problem, NK. When I get the wired funds from the son of the recently deceased king in somewhere, Africa, I will pay you back for the money you probably lost on that lost-wallet stunt. I had wired this prince some funds at his request and then I am going to receive 10% of his inheritance.

Captain Hate

Ace of Eeyores is whining about Ohio again. He must get to look at some unusual crop reports.

Sara

Shoot this question doesn't lend itself to a thread about eat and drink, but here goes anyway.

Why is Axelrod, a man no longer part of the ADMINISTRATION, and no longer holding the clearances necessary to work in the WH, the one out on the Sunday shows talking about WH/Administration policy? Axelrod is CAMPAIGN not Administration so why is he being put forward (or putting himself forward) as the Administration spokesperson.

Okay I know why, but how is it legal and isn't there something wrong about someone who is not part of the Administration having such insider intimate knowledge of highly classified info that he is the one sent out to defend the policies and actions of the Administration, both WH and DoS? There is no official accountability at all, IMO.

Sara

Has anyone indicated what Ambassador Stevens was doing in Behnghazi that day/night?

He was entertaining a Turkish diplomat or maybe their Ambassador, I'm not sure the title. The video of their parting shows the area calm, no sign of rioting, and the reports are that the attack began just after the Turkish dignatary left the premises.

bgates

I guess I can squeeze this in to a thread about drinking.

I just saw the pic of Candy Crowley on Drudge.

Is it possible Christopher Hitchens faked his own death and became a drag queen?

GMAX

Sue

One of the little noticed practices of pollsters, is exactly as Rick laid out. They understood that their last poll was going to be compared to actual vote, so pollster after pollster in the past found "movement" in the electorate. I was around but not paying as much attention when Reagan got his late movement, but I would be willing to bet that even back then, it was more a function of the one time they need to be close for credibility versus making the paying client happy telling him what he wants to hear.

Porchlight

Ace is pathetically obtuse sometimes. When F. Chuck is talking about a structural shift toward Romney, and Kos is weeping about Obama losing the debate and losing indies and losing the race, a simple moron ought to be able to read between the lines.

Ranger

When F. Chuck is talking about a structural shift toward Romney

I think F. Chuck is anticipating the shift that Gmax is talking about. By next week everyones' samples will be down around D+3 or 4, and trending closer to a D+2 sample for the last week of the campaign. Obama's numbers may get pretty brutal by then.

lyle

I guess I can squeeze this in to a thread about drinking.

I'd like to believe Hitch might have come around to a durable belief in The Almighty and begged for forgiveness if he got shitfaced enough to have awakened to next morning to discover Candy was his closing time date.

Rob Crawford
Ace of Eeyores is whining about Ohio again.

As if he's even been to the state.

Melinda Romanoff

PPP out with a new one on PA. 51O-44R, D+11.

Interesting internals, especially Casey.

jimmyk

But if we assume they're approximately normally distributed and independent, the sum of random variables has a variance equal to the sum of the variances. That means the sum of the SQUARE of the standard deviations.

In effect, what that means is that when you add these together, you widen the margin of error very quickly.

But averages aren't sums. The average of three polls has a variance 1/3 of each of the pools separately. If they are independent, averaging three polls with 1000 respondents is like having one poll with 3,000 respondents.

Sorry for the math, but the point is that averaging pools does reduce the sampling error. The real issue is that it doesn't reduce the bias, it just makes the biases look more precise!

Melinda Romanoff

Heh, Trandrea says Felix fell faster than the speed of light.

Heh.

pagar

Sara, It was well over 50 yrs ago when I got my first security clearance and I have never understood how Axelrod, Obama and/or any member of the Obama Regime got a security clearance. I would love for someone to tell me how they could possibly qualify for one.

Jack is Back

Driving around the DC area especially inside the beltway (GW Parkway and the Canal road area, Route 50 out toward Falls Church, etc.) I saw my first "I'm Not A Republican" bumper stickers on quite a few cars.

What's that all about?

Then today going to Arlington National Cemetery I saw a nice SUV with this bumper sticker:

"If you have been hearing crazy voices, then turn off Fox News".

That said the further you get outside the beltway like Leesburg, Frederick and Darnestown you see a lot of Romney signs and hardly any Obama signs. I guess he doesn't need them like Romney does in Federal employee land. Those are votes locked up already.

Roscoe Barlett is in trouble. He used to have a safe western Maryland district but the Maryland Dems gerrymander him into an additional 300K in Montgomery County. 300K Dems that it is.

jimmyk

In my 3:29, "averaging pools" should of course be "averaging polls."

And while I'm clarifying, the word "bias" is meant statistically, not morally. The idea is that even if you had an infinitely large sample, you'd be getting the wrong answer because your methods are wrong.

Jane - Mock the media

Someone just texted Howie Carr and said Gallup is picking the audience tomorrow night - the same Gallup that is being threatened by Holder.

Danube of Thought

then is he incompetent ( probably not since 2008 he was the absolute most accurate ). Why? Cuz he has a monthly poll which clearly shows an adult population based on very large sample of 15,000 and corresponding low MOE that is R + and has been R + for the entire year.

This assumes that anyone, including Rasmussen, who does not use his party ID number, and nothing else, in his estimate of the electorate is corrupt or incompetent.

Question: Jay Cost assumes a D+3 electorate: corrupt, or incompetent?

Now let us consider whether Gallup is corrupt, i.e. it is intentionally manipulating its results in order to favor Obama. Some questions to consider:

1. Why would Gallup do this? Why would it assume that it would get more government contracts from an Obama administration than a Romney one? Indeed, why wouldn't it assume that a Romney administration would be more likely to dismiss the False Claims case than would Obama?

2. What is the total volume of revenue from its government contracts, and its realistic exposure in the False Claims suit? How do these figures compare with its worldwide revenues?

3. Which employees are doing this manipulation, and at whose direction? Does any member of the Board of Directors know about it?

4. Gallup has been in the polling business for over 75 years. It has offices in 40 countries. In addition to doing US presidential and other election polls it does marketing surveys, polling and consulting for clients around the world (suggesting that US government contracts are a small portion of its business). What would be the impact if one of the implementing employees became disgruntled and went public: "I was ordered to manipulate the Gallup poll." Do you think that after 75 years the company would take that risk? And in any event, what would be its reward if it took the risk and got away with it?

Sara

The bias in the polls that people perceive, is, in my opinion, the media trying to make this a horse race to the very last day. More advertising revenue is the goal. Ohio residents may be sick of all the TV/radio ads, but no one at the TV/radio stations/networks is complaining.

Danube of Thought

Final 2008 RCP Average vs. actual result:

Final Results 52.9 45.6 Obama +7.3
RCP Average 52.1 44.5 Obama +7.

jimmyk

DoT, what was it a month before the election? And what about 2000, 2004?

The fact that it was accurate once does not show that it is likely to be accurate now, like my broken watch that's right twice/day.

Danube of Thought

Not to mention that you blend in polls taken of Adults, of Registered Voters and Likely Voters all together.

Every single poll in the RCP Obama v. Romney matchup poll is an LV poll. All but one of those in the Obama approval poll is an LV poll.

Sue

Copying my post from the other thread since I posted it in the wrong place for this discussion.

I suspect Ace is in the same boat I'm in. I want the polls to reflect what you guys are saying. They are starting to, but they aren't there yet. And I worry about Ohio. It is always close.

In 2000 it was Bush +2.1. He won by +3.5. In 04 it was Bush +2.1. He won by +3.5. In 08 RCP had it Obama +2.5. He won by +4.6. Right now they have it Obama +2.2. It seems to me they have a tendency to be under what the actual count is on election day in each election. In Ohio, anyway.

In 2004 it was back and forth between Bush and Kerry and didn't really settle for Kerry until the end of October.

Anyway, I want the polls to show Romney ahead. If it takes waiting until the end of October before they make their adjustments, I'll just have to wait. Until then, I'm as nervous as a long tail cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

Sue

Obviously I meant Bush.

In 2004 it was back and forth between Bush and Kerry and didn't really settle for Kerry Bush until the end of October.

Rob Crawford
Anyway, I want the polls to show Romney ahead.

Then commission a polling company to take a poll showing that, just like the press does.

Sue

And I realize the numbers for 2000 and 2004 are the same but that's what RCP said they were. Kind of weird, no?

lyle

I have never understood how Axelrod, Obama and/or any member of the Obama Regime got a security clearance. I would love for someone to tell me how they could possibly qualify for one.

Hell, I'd like someone to tell me how the Clinton grifters and the likes of Sid Blumenthal got theirs.

I know I'd never be able to get one and I've essentially lived the life of an ascetic.

/tries to maintain straight face...

Sue

Is Candy Crowley's name pronounced long o as in crow or o as in cow? I've heard it both ways all day today.

hit and run

BTW -- wanted to make sure that everyone knows how much harder Obama is preparing for this debate.

That's why he's preparing while holed up in a . . . golf course resort.

And not just harder. He's preparing smarter.

That's why he is . . . still using John Kerry as the Romney stand in.

Sue

Hit,

Someone said today he wasn't allowed to take his golf clubs with him. I wonder who didn't "allow" it?

Captain Hate

Heh, Trandrea says Felix fell faster than the speed of light.

I was gonna link the Gawker site which had a screen cap except it's such a haven of dumbasses and shitheads that I didn't feel like giving them any traffic. A couple of the comments were of the "sounds like something Fox news would report" nature; except it's something that MessLSD *actually* did report. One person took the dumbbells to task but why bother with the terminally stoopid.

lyle

or o as in cow?

Self evident, isn't it?

Captain Hate

As if he's even been to the state.

He had a sunken chest pounding thread a week or so ago where he was pulling out the "I've been to X number of states so I are serious cat" garbage. When you start believing your own crap without having somebody around to talk you out of posting stuff like that, it means you're getting close to the Cahrlse Soonhjn area code.

Danube of Thought

"The fact that it was accurate once does not show that it is likely to be accurate now, like my broken watch that's right twice/day."

There is no way to test whether it is accurate until you take a poll close to election day. Polls are snapshots, not forecasts. I don't know what RCP was a month before that in 2008, but my recollection is that it was pretty heavy toward Obama by that time. McCain had the lead after the Palin arrival, but the September financial meltdown toasted him.

I expect that as we approach November 6 there will be a gradually widening lead for Romney in the polls. This is not because I suspect that the pollsters are cheating now and need to begin to conform to reality in order to save face. Rather, I suspect it because as so many here and elsewhere have pointed out so often, those deciding late tend to break overwhelmingly for the challenger. Thus, if I am right, Obama will wind up just about where he is now, at around 47-48%.

Danube of Thought

I wlould be interested to hear from some of those who believe that when a media company hires a pollster, it conveys to the pollster what results it wants to see.

At what level in the two companies are these preferences discussed? How many employees in each company are in on it? Do the CEO's and directors know about it?

Has any employee in any media or polling organization ever come forward to blow the whistle? Wouldn't it be a bombshell of a story, and maybe worth some money?

The comments to this entry are closed.

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Wilson/Plame