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October 06, 2012

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Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--but now I guess I have to brace for Detroit to do those honors--

When you A'sume things you make an A's out of you and me. :)

Danube of Thought

Because it sounds so sweet, let's hear it again:

Minus 13 at Raz today.

Trails Romney by 2.

peter

Don't look past Buck Showalter's O's-ver achievers, who split the season series with the Yanks, 9-9.

Supine.

Caricature a chaise longue.
==============

matt

Basketball starts today!!! Football!!!! Baseball!!! It's Man - day!!!

Absent arms.

An armoire.
======

Bottom drawer.

A chest of drawers.
=========

Collapsed in a gale of laughter.

An irony board.
========

Overflowing IOUs.

A side table.
======

Time to clean house.

What a mess.
=======

steve

"... Minus 13 at Raz today.

Trails Romney by 2. ..."

read holman jenkins in the WSJ today. Because of the ingenuity of American Oil Engineers the economy in PA is doing just fine and the population is ready to reelect Obama.

the auteur of 'Pizza Man

I think Maher is being just slightly disingenous, those ads have been bombarding my state, like the hawkmen squadrons in 'Fash Gordon

steve

Chris Hayes seems like a fair, ok lefty. Giuliani should accept his invite to appear on his show.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/chris-hayes-on-his-argument-with-giuliani-this-week-giuliani-was-right-but/

Jane - Mock the Media!

Damn! I forgot it was Clint's empty chair. I thought it was JOM's!

narciso

From 'throwing the curve' go see it, and see if if there isn't a certain character that reminds one of Obama.

Frau Bettgestell

kim, did you put the clams in Mrs. Murphy's bed?

Danube of Thought

Interesting WSJ article on polling at the LUN. Note that the guy says Raz weights by his rolling average of party ID.

Danube of Thought

What does Jenkins's article on solid-blue Pennsylvania have to do with Rasmussen's national poll?

Winston Haung

"Because it sounds so sweet, let's hear it again:"

OK...
Raz
R 49%
O 47%
R wins 89% Rep, O wins 88% Dem, R wins indys by 16% margin
Appears Raz is using something around a D +5 sample
With even turnout, R ahead by +7

narciso

Interesting that they are showing 'Patriot
Games' re the camps in Libya, back then it was IRA, now it's this lad out of Zawahiri's
outfit.

matt

Pre-season basketball begins today. The planets are in alignment for a brief moment. Baseball, Football, and Basketball form a symmetry that only occurs once per year for a fleeting moment.

Happy Man Day!!!

LUN

Frau Bettgestell

Greg Mankiw weighs in on ChaCo's side: "The Two Labor Market Surveys"
LUN

PD

The episode of "XIII" on Reelz last night featured gas shortages and rationing, which was presented as working against the sitting president.

I was amused at that because Aisha Tyler, who plays Jones, is hard, hard against Romney.

PD

Pre-season basketball begins today.

How do you think the new anti-flopping rule will work out?

steve

"...


What does Jenkins's article on solid-blue Pennsylvania have to do with Rasmussen's national poll? ..."

is that the solid blue PA that elected Pat Toomey Senator? In the same WSJ today is another article saying Tommy Thompson is now behind his democrat opponent in the Senate race in Wisc.

Mostly I think it very ironic that Obama bashes the oil industry, yet that same industry is the likely source of the economic growth in the country the last few years.

PD

I notice the meme in commentary about skepticism about the 7.8% percent unemployment rate is "conspiracy" theories.

Seems to me it's more "suspicions of dishonesty" theories. It's not like we've ever known this administration to tell the truth about anything.

Some Guy

What does Jenkins's article on solid-blue Pennsylvania have to do with Rasmussen's national poll?

Nothing, he's just posting what he's paid to, it doesn't mean he actually understands it.

matt

it'll flop, of course.

PD

Mostly I think it very ironic that Obama bashes the oil industry, yet that same industry is the likely source of the economic growth in the country the last few years.

It's only ironic if you think he cares about economic growth.

Jane - Mock the Media!

I've never seen anything "fair" about Chris Hayes. I think my patience has now expired.

narciso

Of course, they cooked the books, the U6 number didn't move, more projection in Mystery Prog Theatre 3000.

narciso

You have to mine the news, liek a Kremlinologist, it' just full of chaff,
is this the second iteration of XIII, they ran one on NBC, about a year ago.

Winston Haung

Gravis poll: CO 10/3-10/4 likely voters
O 49%
R 46%
R/D/I 32/28/40
In prior 9/25 poll O up +4

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Whether they cooked the books or not I don't know. I tend to doubt it.

OTOH, the position that it is improbable a government agency would engage in a "conspiracy" to misrepresent numbers or statistics is considerably more dubious.
I only doubt it in this case because there is little overt evidence they did so not because anyone should trust the government to be either competent or honest.

bio mom

Winston, you posted the Colorado poll backwards. Romney leads in it by 3, 49-46.

steve

"... Of course, they cooked the books, the U6 number didn't move, more projection in Mystery Prog Theatre 3000. ..."

the economy seems to be doing ok. The oil industry is going gangbusters. Apple is close to being a $1T company. An article in the WSJ today on booming exports of feed grain from western states to China.

I think the Romney approach to not focus on the deficit and the war in Afg is hurting him.

Danube of Thought

"is that the solid blue PA that elected Pat Toomey Senator?"

It's the solid blue PA that went for Obama by more than ten points in 2008. And again: what does that have to do with Raksmussen's poll, you ol' Tea Partier?

bio mom

Romney gains 2 more in the gallup 7 day tracker. Moving in his favor. Hard to move a 7 day tracker quickly.

GALLUP DAILY
Oct 3-5, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval
50%
-2
Obama Disapproval
45%
+2
Presidential Election

Obama
49%
-1
Romney
46%
+1
7-day rolling average

Rick Ballard

"Note that the guy says Raz weights by his rolling average of party ID."

DoT,

He can say it all he wants but it could only be true if Ras reported results corresponded to Ras reported Party ID every once in a while. Assuming an even distribution of the 4% other/undecided, I get a D+ 4.4 weight on today's results. If I run the splits against the Ras September Party ID report, the result is 51% Romney, 44% Obama.

Party ID weighting may be one part of the Ras "secret recipe" but it's not the main ingredient.

BTW - 51/44 is closer to my 52/46 projection based on Gallup's racial split and 2008 exit weights than the current Ras reported 49/47.

Danube of Thought

O 49, R 46 in the Gallup seven-day rolling matchup. It was six points three days ago. Today's results reflect only two days of post-debate polling.

narciso

Meanwhile 1/5 of all the coal fired plants are being taken off line, with a another half between now and 2014, He did promise
'electricity prices would necessarily skyrocket'

Danube of Thought

"the economy seems to be doing ok."

Sure it is, if you think GDP growth under 2% and 7.8% unemployment is OK.

narciso

Gorman and Entous, try to make the Minitrue deliberations re Benghazi seem rational,

sue

Nobody knows the trouble I've seen

Nobody knows but me...

pagar

Some one is doing some free advertising for the President IMO.
I just had a side popup with a message:
"The president has lowered the refinance cost" etc etc
The click takes you to a Lower your Bills URL. I don't the President did this on his own, does anyone else?

henry

re: Thompson in WI. A couple thoughts not in the WSJ article.

1) WI poll results have shown Ds ahead since 2010 (Barrett leading Walker both initially and in the recall, Kloppenburg leading Prosser, Feingold leading Johnson etc), but results have been R across the board.

2) No politician in WI is looking at polls-- after two years plus of intense campaigning all voters are known by name to the campaigns.

3) All races in WI will be decided by voter excitement, and the resulting GOTV push. Right now Rs lead excitement by +15.

What matters is peaking excitement and turnout on election day... Rs including Thompson & RR are turning on the ad spending, increasing appearances (Christy will be here the 17th, Ryan is in once a week, Romney will turn up soon), and WI Victory Days (like today) to get the good guys warmed up for Nov. It is a different environment, but intensive ads and Walker in state to bracket other events in the media beginning end of month will deliver the same results we've seen here the last two years- Rs winning by +1 (Prosser:Romney?) to +5 (Walker:Thompson?).

narciso

Meanwhile they seem to have found some idiot judges on the 6th Circuit in Ohio, who can't discern the significance of why
military voters deserve priority, maybe because some are 3,000 miles away or farther.

Danube of Thought

RickB, I have thought for a long time that the Raz numbers don't cohere, and I have no idea what he's up to. According to Gmax (I think) he's weighting according to some compromise between the 2008 turnout and current party ID (why he or anyone else would ignore 2010 is a mystery to me). A lot of his stuff is now behind a subscription curtain, so I can't really follow him.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--the economy seems to be doing ok--

What an imbecile.

Some Guy

OTOH, the position that it is improbable a government agency would engage in a "conspiracy" to misrepresent numbers or statistics is considerably more dubious.

Don't confuse policy with a "conspiracy".

I don't think there is any kind of conspiracy, I think it was clearly laid out policy that was made public but mostly ignored at the time.

In 2009, Obama brought the Census Bureau into the White House. The Census Bureau creates the data that is used by the BLS.

You don't need to create a conspiracy within the BLS, if you are the ones feeding them the data.

Frau Bettgestell

I can hardly wait for the VP debate.

(Twitchy)

Danube of Thought

Remember, Iggy, steve thinks it's fine when a guy can subsist as a farmer or a fisherman. Like in Japan, where they don't need economic growth.

xbradtc

--the economy seems to be doing ok--

The hard bigotry of very, very low expectations.

narciso

Oh, yes, there is a certain 'trainwreck' quality to watching the Solon of Scranton.

narciso

Btw, Ramirez takes the empty chair to the logical level.

Stephanie

Having a brain freeze.... what was that comment that O stated last week about being wrong some of the time that was turned into something along the lines of the dime stops here?

I remember 'the dime stops here' but not what precipitated it.

Thanks in advance - having a facebook kerfuffle and need to drive in the knife. ;)

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Don't confuse policy with a "conspiracy".--

Hence my use of the quotation marks.

matt

don't kid yourself. While gaffe prone, Biden is no dummy and actually has a lot of respect in Washington. He's an old school fighter and he's got low expectations coming in.

Ryan is going to have do his best to get the better of Biden. It's no gimme.

Rick Ballard

"In 2009, Obama brought the Census Bureau into the White House."

I believe he tried to gain direct control but failed. The attempt may have had much more to do with redistricting concerns plus Blue Hell flight than fiddling the Household Survey results.

It's not as if a Fedcrat needs direct oversight in fiddling figures with the shadow of the OPM Famine growing darker by the day. I'd much rather see the "Bring Out Your Dead" chant start at the EPA and Department of Education. The scientistic charlatans at BLS, CBO ad infinitum will get their turn soon enough.

PD

the economy seems to be doing ok. The oil industry is going gangbusters.

I know you gave other examples of "ok", but let's focus on this one. The oil industry is going gangbusters *on private land*. On public land, where Obama exerts his influence, drilling and permits are way down. So if this factor is evidence of the economy getting better, it's in spite of Obama's efforts to squelch it, not because of them.

Romney was exactly right in the debate to call out Obama's lie about domestic energy production being up. Not because it isn't it up, but because it's up despite of Obama's policies that drag it down. Obama's no friend of the oil industry, nevertheless he 1) wants to take credit for its success; 2) deceives with intent in implying he had something to do with that success.

I do think that Romney should have mentioned Obama's lawlessness in ignoring the Federal judge's ruling that he had to lift drilling moratorium, and his failure to waive the Jones Act following the BP GOM oil spill, which would have let the foreign cleanup crews in. But those weren't union crews, so Obama couldn't allow that. But in a debate, you have only so much time, perhaps Romney felt he made his main point and moved on.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Remember, Iggy, steve thinks it's fine when a guy can subsist as a farmer or a fisherman. Like in Japan, where they don't need economic growth.

Posted by: Danube of Thought | October 06, 2012 at 01:32 PM--

Stone head Steve is paleolithic not paleoconservative.

PD

Some one is doing some free advertising for the President IMO.
I just had a side popup with a message:
"The president has lowered the refinance cost" etc etc
The click takes you to a Lower your Bills URL. I don't the President did this on his own, does anyone else?

I get spam email with that kind of thing all the time. It's nothing more, and the fact that it makes no sense is evidence of its worthlessness.

Here's another example of nonsense: A new law was passed by the President to lower auto insurance

The president signs bills, he doesn't pass them.

narciso

Well I speak of his policy misteps, the nuclear freeze, opposing the original TAP,
the contras, the first Gulf War, the originator of FISA, and VAWA, I'll give him
the drug czar gig, then again he did trick
Senators out of their reservations on SALT 2, he prevailed on Afghan policy in large part, 'snuffing out the surge' like the Indian in 'Cuckoo's Nest, and had some influence with 'weak minded' senators during
the lameduck session.

pagar

" the economy seems to be doing OK"

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/gasoline-prices-in-california-match-all-time-high-1.986099

People are out of work and gas prices are at an all time high. Seems like a not OK kind of economy.

PD

People are out of work and gas prices are at an all time high. Seems like a not OK kind of economy.

Well now you're just cherrypicking. Remember that people have their free Obama phones. They can call for pizza delivery and pay with their food stamp cards. No need for a job or to drive anywhere. Let the pizza shop take the hit on the gas.

narciso

That last is according to Woodward, so the truth of it, is doubtful. Then again, that's been true for forty years, since he
took the mewlings of a paased over Federal bureaucrat, and portrayed them as an anguished cry of a dissident.

steve

"... On public land, where Obama exerts his influence, drilling and permits are way down. So if this factor is evidence of the economy getting better, it's in spite of Obama's efforts to squelch it, not because of them. ..."

true. Obama is an opportunist and very bad for the country. But I am still ambivalent on Romney because he and other republicans who want to drill baby drill and go gangbusters on the economy are setting us up for disaster in years to come when the resources are all used up.

I think the world is going to become more and more dangerous as the global population continues to grow and nations compete for natural resources.

PD

Another way Obama is deceitful about oil (and democrats in general, I'm looking at you, Chuck Schumer): Portraying the industry as Big Oil, getting all those free tax breaks, as though this is costing the consumer big time to have oil companies make all that money.

Government representatives shouldn't be talking about ripping off consumers when more of our gas money goes to gax taxes than to oil company profits.

At least the oil companies provide a product that we need and want. Government provides a whole lot that we don't want, and makes us pay for it.

Jane - Mock the Media!

Ryan is going to have do his best to get the better of Biden. It's no gimme.

I'm sure it's not, but to me Ryan is famous for what Romney produced last Thursday. He has an uncanny ability to explain things easily in a way that you can understand. Joe Biden is famous for telling people in wheel chairs to stand up. Ryan is serious, Biden is a joke.

I also think that Romney brought home to many people that we need more than a cool guy for president, and Ryan will again make that comparison on the VP level.

I'm sure old Joe wants to make this a foreign policy debate, and if so I think he is making a very grave error.

I can barely wait.

PD

true. Obama is an opportunist and very bad for the country. But I am still ambivalent on Romney because he and other republicans who want to drill baby drill and go gangbusters on the economy are setting us up for disaster in years to come when the resources are all used up.

1) Romney is also in favor of development of alternative sources of energy, so I think your objection has little merit. Further, Romney recognizes that green energy at this point is unicorns, in constrast to Obama who is to all appearances a dolt on the subject. A corrupt dolt, and with our money, such as tossing hundreds of millions at a company like Solyndra, where the $$$ goes straight into the crapper. Romney was exactly right in the debate to call out Obama on this. Do you think he wasn't?

2) Upthread you used the oil industry as evidence that the economy is okay. Now you are concerned that drill baby drill going gangbusters on the economy is a bad thing. This doesn't seem consistent.

3) Running out of resources will happen, yes. But what we've seen is that over time our inventiveness and ingenuity (little of which comes from government, as far as I know) in exploration and development continues to find resources we knew nothing of before, and to develop ways of getting at it that we didn't have in the past. (e.g., fracking) So while the "peak oil" people keep telling us the sky is falling, they look increasingly shrill, out of date, and uninformed.

4) The fact that resources will one day be used up is ... what? An argument that we shouldn't use them? The stuff's in the ground just waiting to be dug up. You want to leave it there? Use it more slowly? Use something else?

PD

Biden is a joke

And he's the smart one on the ticket.

steve

"... Biden is no dummy and actually has a lot of respect in Washington. ..."

I agree. Biden was the chairman of the committee that took down Bork. I fear a Lord Bentson/Dan Quayle momment.

Ryan seems very young on the campaign trail. You gotta worry he will be too nice in the debate and Biden will suckerpunch him.

henry

The key to the debates is simply Obama or Biden showing up and people watching. Most people change the channel when O appears, but watching reminds them how much they don't like O. Romney and Ryan look pleasant, that is all they have to do. These reminders will drive people to the polls to vote RR. Of course wins like the first debate help, but they are not necessary.

Danube of Thought

"The fact that resources will one day be used up is ... what? An argument that we shouldn't use them?"

You use what you have, and if it starts to run short the incentives for using other things become greater. But progress need not wait for scarcity: the Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

MarkO

"It's no gimme."

As my tennis coach told me, there are two kinds of shots in tennis: hard and, no, not easy, harder. The seemingly easy ones at the net can become misses by lack of attention.

That will not be Ryan's problem. If you pay attention, a high, forehand volley can be a quick winner. If ever there were a debate gimmie, it's this one.

Frau Bettgestell

"to some degree"
Obama's chicken words

steve

"... 2) Upthread you used the oil industry as evidence that the economy is okay. Now you are concerned that drill baby drill going gangbusters on the economy is a bad thing. This doesn't seem consistent. ..."

There is more than one thing going on in our world. You can also argue that the economic growth we are seeing is the result of us borrowing $1.3T a year. We are using up our natural resources as fast as we can recover them. Bringing in millions of immigrants each year, which also increases our consumption. A Romney economic recovery will increase the number of people coming here.

PD

Ryan seems very young on the campaign trail.

How so?

Stephanie

Thanks Frau! Couldn't remember the original words - like most of the babble out of his mouth. ;)

PD

There is more than one thing going on in our world.

Saying that things are complex does not address the *contradiction* between your statements.

Jack is Back

Wasn't BLS involved in dubious classification of Green Jobs during Congressional testimony?

So, if they can be that creative toward a positive for Obama what makes us think they can't do the same as far as unemployment or employment totals appear in his favor? I'd bet that 90% or more of all BLS employees are either registered Dems or lean in that direction.

peter

Biden has no qualms about simply making things up on the spot. Apocryphal conversations with apocryphal neighbors while walking into non-existent establishments. Ryan must call BS on all of them.

matt

steve;

We have had inshore drilling for 75 years with very little pollution. California shut down all future drilling because of a single spill in the 70's. It was a knee jerk reaction by a bunch of wealthy Santa Barbara ah's. It is now 40 years later and the technology has improved.

The Florida coast was just taken off the table. Deep Water drilling is effectively on hold because of the government's bass ackwards decisions. The administration has said that they will allow a few more wells in ANWR, but has not done anything substantial to move this forward.

The EPA did it's best to f*!k Shell once again on the Bering Sea drill this year and has been roadblocking it for years.

Exploratory drilling on the Cook Inlet was also shut down through other than normal means and now we are into another Alaskan winter, so another 8 month delay.

The President has already declared open warfare on all coal power generation.

Two nuclear plants were permitted, but the government has so far been unable to give the fiscal approvals that would allow the companies to go to the markets for funding.

The Keystone XL pipeline is still on hold.

Its funny how all of that bureaucracy can get in the way of direly needed infrastructure.

Keystone XL along with the glut of NG have the potential to not only create oil jobs, but petrochemical and downstream industry jobs that are typically among the highest paying blue collar jobs in the country.

We could be sitting on a massive game changer that would reduce dependence upon foreign oil and feedstocks by at least 20-30% if not more and reduce our trade imbalance while offering true clean energy.

This shift is taking place regardless, but the Administration is at war with conventional energy.

It's not about drill baby drill, but about responsible resource exploitation and management.

The Luddites are doing their best to turn the United States into a 3rd World Country and this is a part of the agenda.

And my goddam gasoline in California is $5.00/gallon because we have created a gasoline Starbucks and won't build more refining infrastructure. "Would you like a E 85 Super frappe, sir?" "Or perhaps you would prefer the pumpkin spice regular?"

This isn't 1910 Signal Hill or. This is a highly developed and very environmentally conscious industry.

"Drill Baby, Drill" is a nice soundbite, but Romney's policy is anything but.

And by the way, the frickin whale population is huge these days off our coast. So all that save the whales bullshit was exactly that. We stopped hunting them and the population rebounded, oil or no oil.

steve

"... The fact that resources will one day be used up is ... what? An argument that we shouldn't use them?"..."

I am reading we are, or starting to export LNG. We should not do that. At the least we should halt immigration because the populations of the world are growing too much and the world is going to run out of natural resources at some point.

PD

We are using up our natural resources as fast as we can recover them.

Well, sure. Production tends to adjust itself to the rate of consumption.

I'm sure I'm missing your point.

A Romney economic recovery will increase the number of people coming here.

Legal immigration does not, I think, introduce that much strain. Illegal immigration in large numbers is another matter, but a Romney administration might put some effort into reducing the number of illegals flowing across our borders.

Marvin M

We can use humans for fuel.

narciso

As I pointed out earlier, if Agnew hadn't broken the tie, on the TAP, we'd have 20%
less domestic supply, they are going about snuffing out fracking operations, all through out the fruited plain, our Gulf production is a mere fraction of what it was in 2010, in part because of the OPIC investment with Rousseff's govt.

Stephanie

steve's all et up with nits on his buts. I'd suggest tackling him before the goalposts move any further. All that lateral running makes me dizzy.

Jack is Back

Steve,

Can you name the resources we are running out of in the country? Just making blanket statements does not enhance any points you're trying to make.

We are not running out of hydrocarbons, or even precious metals such as copper, gold, silver even rare earth - no matter what the ChiComms tell you. Do you think we are running out of coal? Taconite? Sand?

What resources outside of common sense and self-reliance are we short on?

henry

go disintegrate yourself.

PD

Ryan must call BS on all of them.

Agree. And if he does so as much as Romney did with Obama in the first debate, he should be fine. Romney did well in pointing out Obama's mischaracterizations of Romney's positions, plus explained what his own positions actually were, making Obama look foolish.

Not that that stopped Obama from repeating the same lies. I think he brought up the "$5T tax cut" three times. Romney corrected him three times. In the end, I thought Obama looked ineffectual for having no response other than to repeat the same talking point, and unintelligent for failing to understand Romney's repeated corrections.

If Biden tries the same thing with Ryan, I suspect the result will be similar. Biden will likely be a lot more vicious ("Republicans WANT women to be raped because they're against money for police officers!") but if Ryan smiles his "what a dunce" smile and doesn't lose his cool, it will be Biden getting the short end.

steve

"... We could be sitting on a massive game changer that would reduce dependence upon foreign oil and feedstocks by at least 20-30% if not more and reduce our trade imbalance while offering true clean energy. ..."

You make good points Matt. yeah, if all the government restraints are lifted the energy sector and economy in general will grow at Reagan levels again. And the population of California will increase by how many millions? How many more Mexicans will move in? Will the new Asian arrivals be any nicer to the Alexandra Wallaces in your state than the ones who are there now?

Frau Bettgestell

Stephanie, this rubs it in, to some degree:

The president conceded that he deserves some measure of blame for not living up to some of what he had promised. ‘As president I bear responsibility for everything, to some degree, and one of the things I’ve realized over the last two years is that that only happens if I’m enlisting the American people much more aggressively than I did the first two years,’ he said.”

Let see how this might play elsewhere in history. “We shall never surrender,” Churchill said, “to some degree.” Or: “Tear down this wall,” Reagan demanded, “to some degree.” Or possibly: “I’m the decider,” George W. Bush said, “to some degree.” Or how about another formulation: “We shall return!” General MacArthur declared, “perhaps.” Some how these statements no longer sound as strong.

LUN

PD

We have had inshore drilling for 75 years with very little pollution. California shut down all future drilling because of a single spill in the 70's. It was a knee jerk reaction by a bunch of wealthy Santa Barbara ah's. It is now 40 years later and the technology has improved.

Acquaintance of mine was in the area recently and pointed out how people took tarballs on the beach as evidence of the evils of petroleum development, apparently not realizing that tarballs occur naturally.

Hard to overcome that kind of deliberate obduracy.

Frau Bettgestell

matt, Biden is a lying snake and should be handled as such.

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