Folks who ought to know better stumble over the numbers behind Romney's defeat.
Times reporters Kevin Sack and Sarah Wheaton ponder the Republican coalition:
"Although the race was far closer than in 2008, Mr. Romney won two million fewer votes than Mr. McCain did against Mr. Obama that year. "
every vote! McCain's vote total *AS REPORTED* the day after the
election was 56.9 million; by Nov 17 it had risen to 58.3 million and
eventually settled at 59.9 million. Plenty of states take a while in
counting all the votes.
The morning after the 2012 election Romney was credited with 57.4 million votes, exceeding McCain's initial total but trailing his final tally by 2.5 million. Less than a week later Romney's total has risen (at the Times) to 58.6 million, 1.3 million short of McCain's eventual total and ahead of McCain's interim total. (FWIW, CNN has Romney at 58,783,137 votes as of 11/12/2012 at high noon.)
The claim that Romney won "two million fewer" votes than McCain is already wrong; my guess is that Romney will eventually surpass McCain.
Maureen Dowd won't let reality interfere with her snark:
Team Romney has every reason to be shellshocked. Its candidate, after all, resoundingly won the election of the country he was wooing.
Mitt Romney is the president of white male America.
Maybe the group can retreat to a man cave in a Whiter House, with mahogany paneling, brown leather Chesterfields, a moose head over the fireplace, an elevator for the presidential limo, and one of those men’s club signs on the phone that reads: “Telephone Tips: ‘Just Left,’ 25 cents; ‘On His Way,’ 50 cents; ‘Not here,’ $1; ‘Who?’ $5.”
In its delusional death spiral, the white male patriarchy was so hard core, so redolent of country clubs and Cadillacs, it made little effort not to alienate women. The election had the largest gender gap in the history of the Gallup poll, with Obama winning the vote of single women by 36 percentage points.
Hmm. As to its target audience, I think Ann Romney ws meant to reassure women that a guy who didn't drink, didn't smoke, didn't curse, had stayed married to his high school sweetheart and was a good husband, father and provider maybe wasn't such an awful guy.
And did it work? Well, among white women, Mitt had roughly the same gender gap as that macho swaggering Texas cowboy, George Bush, back in 2004 against every woman's fave, John Kerry. Bush was the president of white women by 55-44 but won white men by 62-37, a gender gap of 7 percent; Romney is the president of white women by 56-42 and white men by 62-35, a gender gap of 7 percent.
Where Romney falls apart is in his appeal to ethnic women. CNN does not subdivide it here, but shows Bush losing non-white women by 24-75. That is despite Bush picking up 44 percent of the Hispanic vote (men and women) and 11 percent of the black vote.
Romney lost Hispanic women by 23-76 and black women by 3-96; compounding his difficulties, each segment was a larger share of the 2012 electorate. Further compouding his woe - in 2004, Bush's gender gap among non-whites was roughly 7 percent, equal to his white gender gap. Romney's gender gap among blacks was 9 percent and among Hispanics, 10 percent.
My impression is that Romney had a serious ethnic problem, not an unusual gender problem. But nothing can stand between Maureen and her fun. Her final stat - Obama winning the vote of single women by 36 percentage points - is especially unconvincing. Romney is president of married women, by 53-46. Obama swept single women by 67-31. However, my *guess* is that single women skew more towards blacks, Hispanics and the 18-29 year old demographics than the married women, so what looks like gender based strength may be driven by ethnicity.
(I should note that Romney won each white demographic sorted by age, but his margin among 18-29 year old whites was only 51-44. Assuming a 6 point gender gap as with the overall white group, Romney would be roughly tied with Obama among young white (and disproportionately single) women.
Well. As an older white woman Maureen is a bit of an outlier. On the other hand, Catholic went for Bush in 2004 and Obama this time, so Ms. Dowde has a demographic home there. Not to mention her spot as a big city, highly paid east coast lib.