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November 05, 2012

Comments

Janet

Do you need anything, Tom? I can start sending you care packages! (I really will if you need anything - theshagamsatgmaildotcom)

Some Guy

getting into fistfights with strangers.

More likely, you'll get hugged by a stranger...

Sue

I have a travel trailer I can set up for you if you can haul your ass to Texas. You're always welcome, dear leader. And on the plus side, it's a toasty 70 degrees here today.

Sue

And we can go find TexasisHeaven and get us some beans and cornbread!

NK

Tomm-- You can always bring la famille Maguire to my little humble home to watch the proceedings-- my wife will be in Tampa and the 2 Border Collies are always looking for extra suckers-- I mean nice people-- to play frisbee with them in the yard. BUT Seriously, if you need laundry/Internet access or anything else, you've got my email, send me a message and we'll get you in the house when the dog sitter comes today or tomorrow. Cheers.

centralcal

Sorry to hear you are STILL without electricity.

Ranger

BTW, Diplomacy is an excellent education game to teach people that "states have no friends, only interests."

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Sounds like Sue is off the ledge.

Old Lurker

Tom, you can hop over to Nantucket where the house is warm and toasty. Be sure to leave us room for Thanksgiving.

Porchlight
Sue

Dear God, WBAP is predicting in the next year or two, Texas will become a swing state. Hispanic voters. The end of the world, if you ask me, for Texas to not be red, red, red.

Sue

Ledgewalker is hanging in there. But if Texas goes purple I might just jump.

Old Lurker

How does that 5.8% give him a 50/50 race then?

I'm confused.

Old Lurker

OK 49/48 to be fair. Same question.

Captain Hate

Pinch wants TM's power back on to get some blog hits for his in-house dumbasses from the links which Tom is obviously unable to do with his phone.

Dave (in MA)

(Pasted in from the other thread because I just noticed this one.)

A coworker came into my office this morning to tell me about this movie that he and his wife watched last night, Dreams From My Real Father.

Among a lot of other things, he told me that apparently there's this fellow named Bill Ayers who Obama was associated with, and he was some sort of left-wing agitator around 40 years ago and he was involved with this group called the Weathermen, and some think that he helped launch Obama's political career! This (and a bunch of other stuff in the movie) was all news to my coworker. He also told me that he thinks that the media knew about it and didn't tell us about it.

Sigh.

Porchlight

OL,

Ras doesn't use his party ID numbers in his polls. He uses D+2ish - it varies. Sometimes even higher D in the state polls.

There's lots of speculation as to why - I think it's to hedge b/c he took so much heat over the summer using a more R-friendly sample.

centralcal

Me too, Old Lurker (confused). I am completely befuddled by the polls this year.

hit and run

Hang in there, TM.

Old Lurker

Thanks Porch. I am still not climbing out on that ledge with Sue.

Sue

I am still not climbing out on that ledge with Sue.

Please don't. I really don't want any company out here. If it gets too crowded, MAM and I might accidentally knocked off.

Clarice

TM, I'm sorry you're still having problems getting back to pre-storm normal.

Sue

Whoa. Words got left out. They were there, I promise you.

I really don't want any more company out here. If it gets too crowded, MAM and I might accidentally get knocked off.

Captain Hate

Likewise Reposted:

Sigh.

Hey, better he saw it over the weekend versus sometime after the polls close tomorrow.

Old Lurker

But if your WBAP is right, Sue, there goes my backup TX goes it alone plan. Darn, already had the house in Austin picked out.

NK

Sue-- there could have been worse ledge typos-- funnier-- but worse.

Sue

Austin? You might as well stay in blue hell. Porch is the only conservative that lives in Austin.

maryrose

TM;
I am sorry you are still without power. Thanks for keeping us afloat at JOM.
MAM: Are you safe inside and off the ledge? Just remember we will be celebrating toorrow with our new President Mitt Romney!

Sue

NK,

I know. We could have been knocked up, right?

Old Lurker

That must be why she offered to pay my moving bill.

Sue

Well, I'm exaggerating a little. Rick Perry lives there.

maryrose

The news about CBS holding back that Obama DID NOT call it terrorism is deplorable and typical. They release it yesterday in a CYA move. Messnbc ABC and CBS should have no access to our new President Romney for this egregious behavior and cover-up.
This Morning Joe actually mentioned Benghazi. THey know in their hearts who is going to win.

Rick Ballard

OL,

It would be nice to see regional splits on the ID number. I have no idea why Rasmussen is using a D+2 model for his national poll and neither does Nate Silver, who has unsuccessfully tried to discredit both Gallup and Rasmussen while pimping MFM fantasy polling.

Nobody born after 1924 has ever seen an R+6 electorate.

Clarice

Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)

Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...

James D.

Totally OT - please wish me luck tomorrow. I'm taking my Mom for cataract surgery (maybe I should rephrase it - please wish HER luck!).

Porchlight

I should have clarified in my earlier post.

The Ras party ID number is major because it is LVs. If the electorate looks like Ras is saying it does, we are looking at a 5-7 point blowout tomorrow - or more.

Party ID was even in 2004, D+7 in 2008.

NK

WAIT WAIT--- "One Day More"-- TomM is communicating to us in Les Mis the Musical code.What comes after "One day More"-- well there are the barricade songs, and then "Drink With Me" about all of the dead students, then "Take Him Home" about wounded Marius and "Anguished Mornng" about the good guys losing-- WELL THAT'S NOT GOOD!! But wait-- then Javert suicides himself, ValJean dies a noble death and there's a "Happy" ending -- spiritually speaking. Well, we got that going for us anyways.

Porchlight

OL, I would so love for you to move here! And come to my Anglican church (if I'm remembering previous conversations correctly). :)

Sue

I don't get these polls. Why in hell are they so close? If it isn't a blow out for Romney, the dems will steal it.

Clarice

NK, I think you're reading too much into the title. XOXO

NK

BTW-- I am so confident in my heterosexuality that I can display my knowledge of the broadway musical genre. And yes I wear pink button down shirts too -- not that there's anything wrong with that.

Captain Hate

This Morning Joe actually mentioned Benghazi. THey know in their hearts who is going to win.

I can't wait until RINO Scarblowhard comes crawling back on his yellow belly to be let into the Republican clubhouse again, only to have Priebus kick his stinking teeth down his pencil-necked throat.

NK

Clarice-- Hit and JimmyK can use the prior thread to create an entirely new board game (Hit/Jimmy that was brilliant BTW) and I can't go off on a flight of fancy about the coincidental Thread title to display my vast intimate knowledge of the Broadway musical genre-- not that there's anything wrong with that!

Jack is Back

Saw this at Powerline

A 1949 Churchill speech extract that is as fitting for tomorrow as anything we here today.

"The choice is between two ways of life: between individual liberty and State domination; between concentration of ownership in the hands of the State and the extension of ownership over the widest number of individuals; between the dead hand of monopoly and the stimulus of competition; between a policy of increasing restraint and a policy of liberating energy and ingenuity; between a policy of leveling down and a policy of opportunity for all to rise upwards from a basic standard."

Captain Hate

Best wishes to your Mom, James D. Cataract surgery is pretty risk free these days, no? Even if it isn't, she won't have to read when NK comes completely out of the closet.

Thomas Collins

Best of luck to your Mom, James D. I hope all goes well for her.

Haystack

James D. good luck to you and your mother tomorrow. My dad's surgery was a breeze. Hope hers will be the same. Have you guys voted yet?

Sue

Joshua Green ‏@JoshuaGreen

.@BW got hold of today's Gallup LV track early: 49-48 Romney over Obama. BIG movement to O (last was 51-46 Romney):

NK

Best of luck to james D's mom and family.

I resemble the CaptH remark!! PS: I checked and turns out I goofed on the Les Mis song list, the dead student song is "Empty Chairs and Empty Tables" ne pas "Drink With Me." Not that there's anything wrong with checking the song list... of a Broadway musical!!

Janet

I am proud that I don't understand what the hell NK is talking about. :)

All the best to your mom, James D.!

NK

Sue on the Ledge-- I hate to break it to you, but JEF will get somewhere between 46-48% of the national vote. Sorry, just t'is.

James D.

Thanks!

Yes, I did early voting, and got the absentee ballot for my Mom, made sure she filled it out, and put it in the mail for her.

I was amazed by how easy the doctor made cataract surgery sound - what they can do these days is really awfully impressive.

And to bring it back OT, it's good she's getting it now, because if, God forbid, we can't rid ourselves of Obamacare, I'd imagine the various "cost-saving" panels will be looking hard at things like cataract surgery for 81 year olds who are "no longer productive".

Threadkiller

"Even if it isn't, she won't have to read when NK comes completely out of the closet.."

Holy Shit, CH.

****************

Good luck James D's mom.

Danube of Thought

My Darling One had cataract surgery a week ago. Piece of cake, and boy is she happy with the result.

Barone is extremely upbeat this morning about Romney winning "handily."

NK

My mother had cataract surgery more than 10 years ago.. went very smoothly, I'm sure the technology is even much better now.

NK

TK-- thank you for standing up for me!! But no, I won't show you my birth certificate.

Clarice

Washington Examiner:
Team Romney is drawing satisfaction and a growing sense of confidence from a new CNN poll that, while over-weighting Democrats, shows that Mitt Romney is running away with independents, the Big Kahuna in Tuesday's presidential election. According to a new CNN poll, Romney is beating President Obama 59 percent to 35 percent among independents even when third party candidates are included.


Short version: The polls are absurd. Anyone who gives them a minute's attention is a person SCAM wishes to do business with.

Captain Hate

I think Barone wants to join the SHITCANNED club.

someone

Clarice: go further back to make your jaw drop.

Oct. 2010: D+2.9
3Q 2010: D+2.1

Oct. 2004: D+1.5
3Q 2010: D+2.1

Going in at R+5.8 is mind-boggling.

NK

Cataracts-- my mother's surgery was over 10 years ago-- no problems since.

Sue

Cataracts? I drive a Ford.

NK

The electorate will NOT be +5.8R. No Way-- but the registration trend in the last 4 years is unmistakable -- Gallup and Raz see it clearly.

C.R.

5 explanations of the polls depending on which one proves correct:

BobKrumm

The links to the 5 scenarios are at the bottom of the linked page.

matt

it is simply amazing how they have that kind of surgery down to a science now. Good luck on it!

I am one of the 278 people on the planet who have not seen Les Mis. I think over the course of the years I walked by the theater where it was playing in London 50-75 times, and every time it seemed packed.

I had a walk I did in London from my hotel up in Bloomsbury down towards Parliament and then back to the City, or sometimes up towards the park. It was one of my favorite things to do in the world, just walking the streets of London.

JerryRigged

Cataracts? I drive a Ford.

Posted by: Sue | November 05, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Ha! I was just about to post something like this! Dang job...getting in the way....

Danube of Thought

Feed me on corn bread and beans
Feed me on corn bread and beans
Feed me on corn bread and beans
And I ain't gonna be treated this way.

(See if that don't get your heart started.)

Frau Teufelchen

Sue @ 11:59

No storm damage here in Cleoville, but I sure would like some of that corn bread and beans.

Jack is Back

Not the same but i had a detached retina in 3 places and the retina specialist they sent me to asked me if I had 10 minutes in which time he totally repaired them with a laser. Got a little tense toward the end but nothing a couple of deep breaths couldn't take care of.

NK

Matt-- I guaranty that you are THE ONLY person in the world who owned a Renault4 AND never saw Les Mis. Your Renault4 story (Plus ME semi-Lorry drivers) was LOL, wheezingly funny. It's out of context, but you may want to repost that comment for those who were not reading this weekend.

Jack is Back

matt,

Hotel in Blloomsbury: Montague on the Gardens? Or were you on Russell Square. That is quite a hike for a walk in London.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--But no, I won't show you my birth certificate.

Posted by: NK | November 05, 2012 at 12:48 PM--

I don't think that's what he's worried about you showing him.

Porchlight

The electorate will NOT be +5.8R

Probably not. But don't you think that kind of movement in party ID numbers in just one month is pretty significant? Even if it's R+1 Romney should win easily between Rs and indys.

BTW movement to O in Gallup - not surprising. As long as Romney is still up, and O's not over 50, I'm satisfied. 14 consecutive days of Romney at 50 or over is more than enough to indicate the real state of the race.

BTW Gallup's site is infuriating. Trying to find the past daily tracking numbers. I have done this 20 times in the last year and get frustrated EVERY TIME. GRRR.

jimmyk

I am one of the 278 people on the planet who have not seen Les Mis.

Me too, Matt. Nor "Phantom." I'd confess that I'm a big opera buff, but I see where that sort of thing got NK, so I'm not saying anything. (Though at least I've got Nino for backup.)

Rick Ballard

NK,

I have a hard time believing an R+5.8 electorate as well. What I do believe is both Gallup and Rasmussen showing a 12+ point swing between 2008 and 2012.

Low Dem enthusiasm may well keep Obama below 46% tomorrow.

jimmyk

Also, lots of those state polls showing tight races (like the new Ohio poll) show movement toward Romney relative to the earlier polls. So whatever their bias, they are showing the movement we all anticipated.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

I too am one of the proud 278, matt.
And I bought a Maserati specifically because it was built after Citroen had relinquished ownership of the company.
Considering my last name, my Francophobia is odd, but nonetheless real and palpable. (and I don't mean Ratzkiwatzki)

glenda

JD..prayers for your Mom

Barone's on Megan/Fox...yes yes ..it's going to be fine, Sue

Old lurker..Texas will not go purple as long as we'll live...Gulf Coast, East TX--edwards plateau (beautiful places to buy between Austin and Kerrville) are solid, Please come visit the Lone Star State--food, hunting, fishing, and by, God--libraries..Right, Porch?

henry

Spamalot is as close to Opera as I intend to get.

Frau Schnapps war ihr letztes Wort

Designated drinker service:
If anyone, drinker or not, needs a surogate drinker, I volunteer my meager services. I'm not a heavy drinker but can make up for it with sustained imbibing. TK is your first choice, to be sure, but remember me if he is fully bombed booked.

Rob Crawford

I've seen... what two live musicals? "Godspell" and "Camelot"... No desire to see "Les Mis" or "Phantom" or "Cats" or...

Porchlight

What I do believe is both Gallup and Rasmussen showing a 12+ point swing between 2008 and 2012.

2008 was D+7, so if you believe in a 12-point swing per Ras and Gallup, then you believe in an R+5 electorate - correct?

So how is Ras all that far off with R+5.8?

I'm missing something. An R+5 electorate with indies swinging heavily to Romney means a 1980-style blowout, does it not?

henry

I agree Rob, all that caterwauling and prancing about ruins good music.

Sue

Barone did not sound all that confident to me.

Dave (in MA)
I am one of the 278 people on the planet who have not seen Les Mis.
You couldn't pay me to see a musical. I sat through one in high school. That was more than enough.
Porchlight

Right, glenda! Although I really don't care as much about the libraries part. ;)

James D.

jimmyk, I'm a big opera buff as well, and I'm proud to admit it!

Listening to Madama Butterfly over the Internet Radio right now, as a matter of fact.

Ranger

Hmmmm... This is an interesting portend:

A disappointing turnout for the Obama rally in Madison, Wisconsin.

UPDATE: Meade phones: "It was a very subdued crowd." Did they ever use the overflow area? No. Subdued for both Obama and Springsteen...

Make of that what you will.

Danube of Thought on IPad

Gallup still hasn't posted anything on its site.

jimmyk

Listening to Madama Butterfly

I hope Sue or MAM don't listen to that, it might really push them over the edge.

Clarice

Rush said in 2008, Springsteen and Kerry drew a crowd of 70k in Madison.

someone

Porchlight, more like 1988. But minus California.

Porchlight

someone,

I'll take that. Painting PA red again would be a joy, especially if it also means Casey loses.

Captain Hate

It would really be nice if this election cycle puts what's left of Broooooce's career completely in the toilet.

henry

Ranger, that's getting to Warren endorsement rally territory.

Dave (in MA)
Hey, better he saw it over the weekend versus sometime after the polls close tomorrow.
Well, he was already going to go R because of the economy, but it never ceases to amaze me what people don't know about.
Porchlight

OT, something funny - another Battleground Watch comment - DWS flying coach, heh:

Since we’re under a “humor” title, I’m a flight attendant that had Debbie Wasserman Shultz on my flight last night from MIA to DCA. I was good naturedly going to offer to buy her a drink, and say that she’d need it come Tuesday. However, she slept the whole flight. Would that have been mean? Poor thing, she had to sit in coach.
Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Barone did not sound all that confident to me.

Posted by: Sue | November 05, 2012 at 01:10 PM--

I suspect your big long ears pick up things the rest of us can't. :)

glenda

Oh, lord..Andrea Mitchell..just said on crazy station..if PA is really in play..it's over for President Obama...and why would campaign send Clinton to Philly if they were not freaking?

ugh...changing rooms and channels...Colin Powell commercial for Obama..he really has no loyalty or reason..My grandson(fabulous original unique) is Colin, but not pronounced like a part of your lower intestines where the brave? general lives.

and I hope we all remember how Christie behaved (politically) in regards to Obama's photo-op, the next time an election rolls around. Palin is a star compared to Christie's motives..remember his keynote?another me, me--never Obama's fail, weak!

NK

I don't think that's what he's worried about you showing him.
Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | November 05, 2012 at 01:01 PM

Hey Hey, take it easy with that... you make it sound like every middle aged heterosexual man isn't a Broadway Musical fan... hey wait!

Sue

How do the polls reconcile dems losing house seats to Obama winning? If they really thought that wouldn't Obama be trying to help dem candidates?

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