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November 05, 2012

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NK

Glenda-- AndreaM is just a Bearded Spock World version of On the Ledge Sue-- both sides are freaking as we come to the big day. Only difference? AndreaM is right, JEF is gonna get #$%^Canned, GuS told me so!

PD

The Althouse Obama rally column has some good comments, such as these about the helicopters:

"That's not a helicopter you hear, its a death rattle."

"Coulda used a few of those choppers in Benghazi. Instead they let people die."

sbw

Typhus ate my post. I'll try again:

First heard "One Day More" on the Tony Awards and it took my breath away. Since then have seen Les Mis three times.

Last time was the road tour in Syracuse. Beter staged than the original. See it if you get the chance.

derwill

I need to step away from the computer. I've been on and off the ledge so many times already just this morning I'm getting vertigo.

What's really weird is that all the national polls show a tie and all the latest state polls show a tie. Yet we've got pundits and "experts" from both sides predicting their guy's gonna get 300+ EVs. I don't think anybody really has a clue, except maybe deep inside the campaigns themselves and whichever side that knows they're losing wouldn't say so out loud anyway.

One thing I'm certain of is that this is obviously not 2008. Four years ago it was obvious Obama is going to win, from the polls to the size of the adoring crowds. That's not happening now--not in the polls, and the large crowds are all on our side.

I'm dubious of R+5.8 too. But if the "undertow" theory is right, then maybe that's the first sign of it.

Captain Hate

I'll be interested in the post mortem reports about campaign expenditures particularly if it's a down-ticket bloodbath for the donks. I have a feeling there will be much bitterness aimed at the JEF from the formerly loyal troops who got hung out to dry.

Thomas Collins

Glenda, if you ever chose to enter politics, your opponent would never agree to a debate with you, because your sharp mind and humane but piercing wit would reduce your opponent's prog talking points to dust!

Jack is Back

Sue,

Please get off the ledge and come inside. You are hearing negatives instead of cautious but calculated optimism.

Think Benghazi was a result of not anticipating the obvious and then stonewall the incompetent planning and response? Well it now appears the same idiots in the Regime did the same kind of thing with Sandy.

Read the whole thing

sbw

beter s/b better

PD

Another Althouse comment:

"My daughter is up there and tweeted that the person next to her didn't know who Bruce Springsteen was."

Heh.

Thomas Collins

Derwill, if late breakers all break one way in the battlegrounds, it could be a tie today, and a plus 100 vote EV difference tomorrow.

rse

I have been organizing books in alphabetical order and/or by Topics, Regionalism,Economics.

I had not seen my dining room table in a year. Hello there.

Tomorrow I can put the nervous energy into preparing a list and hunting and pecking it so I can locate what I need as references.

Good luck on mom's cataract surgery.

Not excited in Madison. And don't you know a significant number of whoever turned out were paid to be there.

glenda

sue..Barone always looks like he's sitting on thorns, but he is not prone to to wiggly, sugary talk.
Remember 04'when the media had it all called for Kerry before/on election day..it was Barone who came on to say--hey wait a minute..those polls/opinions are false and proceeded to specifically call counties out in states with data so exact..the loons at NBC took notice and reigned in their ballyhoo-ing.
give me your hand, come inside..get off the ledge, fellow Texan :)

Sue

I will sit on this ledge until Romney is declared the winner.

Thomas Collins

If Obama has to use part of today to win the college student/Baby Boomer swooning over Springsteen vote in Wisconsin, that's not good news for the Dems.

Porchlight

Ras had his party ID pegged right on the money in 2008, D+7.1.

I guess I am not getting why this isn't having a bigger impact on y'all. It isn't a head-to-head poll, but it's clearly the best polling news we've seen this entire cycle. If it were some carp outfit I'd agree to dismiss it but Ras has been on the money with party IDs for the last 4 elections - 2010, 2008, 2006 and 2004 except when he has *overestimated* Dems (2010, by 2 points). Go look at the chart:

http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2012/11/one-day-more/comments/page/2/#comments

If he isn't right today, why not?

jimmyk

How do the polls reconcile dems losing house seats to Obama winning?

That in itself isn't so crazy. Clinton won in '96 and lost 2 seats in the senate, picked up just 2 in the House, which remained Republican. But if they're using the same D+whatever polls to gauge the congressional races, and getting anything close to even, we could see big Repub pickups in both houses.

Danube of Thought on IPad

John Nolte:

"One of the more memorable 'gulp' moments for Republicans in '04 was the Friday before Election Day when John Kerry and Bruce Springsteen brought together a massive crowd of 70,000 to 80,000 in the liberal stronghold of Madison, Wisconsin. Today, in a last minute push to get the vote out, the combined power of Barack and the Boss drew only 18,000. Democrats are already worried about the early vote counts in Wisconsin. The fact that Obama is now depressing turnout for free Bruce Springsteen concerts should worry them even more."

PD

The link JiB posted on the FEMA response to Sandy is amazing.

FEMA: "I'm from the government and I'm here to fail to help."

jimmyk

The fact that Obama is now depressing turnout for free Bruce Springsteen concerts should worry them even more.

Though that might say as much about the over-the-hill and yesterday's news Springsteen as it does about Barry. I mean who's next, Pete Seeger?

Captain Hate

Porch, I have pledged not to talk about polls and peoples' reactions to them. But if I hadn't made that pledge, I'd have an answer to the question you posed.

Sue

Romney is going back to Ohio tomorrow.

Thomas Collins

Porchlight, that's great for the Senate and House. But Ras also has done well picking the POTUS popular vote, and Ras's bottom line on that over the last few days seems to be that those who go to sleep early on Nov. 6th and wake up early on Nov. 7th won't be missing much, because it will still be going on when they wake up.

NK

DoTonIPad-- be fair- it's November and it's cold in madison, how do you expect JEF/BROOCE to do what Springsteen did for John Effin' Kerry, in 2004 the election was in... wait.... OK, John Effin' Kerry has much more charisma than JEF, how do you expect JEF to get the same kind of crowd... wait...

marlene

JamesD,good luck to your Mom. My mother-in-law has had several eye procedures,including a fine needle aspiration.She's 82 and has had good results.
Porchlight,our niece is moving to Austin,she's going to look for a job.
Also,I think I have the honor of being the first to say,its SNOWING here!

narciso

Good luck to your mom, James D.

NJ Jan

For some reason, I could not post for the past couple of days. Power came back yesterday but no FIOS. So, no tv, Internet, or phone. Just have my iPhone. JOM may be my only election source. Thank god for all of you!

I'm optimistic that Romney will come through and win. I'm with Porchlight's analysis.

My nickname has my location and a nickname for my first name which I never use. As far as my town in NJ, it is Fanwood -- the only town in the U.S. with that name.

Captain Hate

Also,I think I have the honor of being the first to say,its SNOWING here!

Unless maryrose has seen some on her side of town (closer to Mansfield where there has been some), there's been no snow in the Cleveland area yet.

OMG, Tammy Bruce just said SHITCAN on what people from Staten Island get from de gubbiment.

derwill

Well, if the Obama team's level of competence in Benghazi and with the Sandy aftermath is being mirrored by their GOTV ground game, then Romney's got it in the bag.

Clarice

Has anyone posted the gallup poll from Drudge:
GALLUP: R 49% O 48%

Extraneus

I hope the pollsters are as disgraced as Obama and his acolytes tomorrow, and that no one pays them any mind ever again.

Imagine being in a war, bullets flying over your head, and all you can think about is "Who's winning?" "Are we winning?" "Will we win?"

Better off sending money to James O'Keefe or Todd Akin I say.

Jim Ryan

I can't help but post these photos again. What amazing pictures. I'd give my eye tooth to have my sons grow up to be like these heroes.

glenda

ok, sue..just tie a rope to the bed..:)

TC..you are my favorite !!! I have to be quick to make sure my high functioning grandson, DX w autism is not forgotten or respected in a world far away from JOM'ers where people choose to turn away--isolate --deny....kinda like the Obamacare coming our way if we do not defeat the leftist Obama. It's not all about taxes to this family or friends here.

oh..and the new meds help..Sure hope you and Jane++all MA do not have to suffer Warren as your vote in Senate :)

off to Apple store ..

matt

Bruce needs Obama to lose this election so's he can write some more really frickin depressing music. How the Stone Pony got washed away that day that Romney shut off the electricity or some such.I wonder if that joint on the Asbury Park Pier is gone.

It was the Hotel Russell, JiB. It was a delightfully louche old place that kept on descending into ever seedier seediness until I could no longer bear it and became a hotel gypsy. I just loved the history of London and was lucky to have spent some incredible times there.

The most moving was the 40th or 50th anniversary of November 11, 1945, when it seemed like every vet in the UK marched, old but proud. There were even some of the WW I lads left then and we got the full monty.

Those walks were magic, usually accompanied with an appropriate cigar and a couple of stops for refreshment along the way. There was the newsmen's pub in Fleet Street an an old Guard's pub somewhere in there long forgotten that I stumbled upon.

London was my transition point and there was always a museum or exhibition or opera or ballet to see. One of the best was a show called 5 Guys named Moe, which was all Louis Jordan. It premiered in London and made it's way to Broadway eventually. I have never been a huge Broadway/West End show fan, but there have been exceptions.

Clarice

I'm really glad Bloomie endorsed Obama . I just hope all the Staten Island voters saw that.

hit and run

marlene:
Also,I think I have the honor of being the first to say,its SNOWING here!

Well, except for daddy...

jimmyk

GALLUP: R 49% O 48%

That's a narrowing from 51-46. But I can't tell from Gallup whether that's the latest or not. If you click on the Drudge link it shows 49-48, but also "Gallup will release its final analysis and additional data Monday afternoon."

Captain Hate

ace is losing his shit again; never bet on that not happening or anything else where showing spine under pressure is called for.

Clarice

Ah, thanks for learing that up, jimmy k.

And Zogby? Is he still brewing his usual super special polls closed sauce?

Porchlight

I love the Hotel Russell, matt. It's just around the corner (more or less) from the much less interesting hotel where we stayed on my college term abroad and where I still stay when I'm there. Bloomsbury and the surrounds are my favorite part of London, without a doubt.

Did you ever happen to visit the 1920s Deco bar in the Tavistock Hotel? Last time I was in the bar was 1998 and it was seedier than I'd remembered. Hadn't been renovated in decades, as far as I could tell. The whole hotel is Deco as is the little diner/cafe next door.

Porchlight

We'll have to wait for Gallup to post (should be any minute now) but I read elsewhere that this is a four day poll and includes Thursday which was Obama's best day last week.

narciso

Fur regrafting is a painful process, Captain, maybe that dishwashing liquid on the polar bears will ease the disconfort

jimmyk

Actually, the Gallup spreadsheet says the 49-48 is "11/1-11/4." So I guess that's the latest/final reading? I liked 51-46 a lot better, but Obama is still going to get SHITCANNED!

Porchlight

Yes, jimmyk. So it is tight, but includes Obama's best day in weeks (thanks Chris Christie - grrr). Good news.

Jack is Back

matt,

It was the 50th and I was there at the Centopah for the ceremony. Would go every year. One year Mrs. JiB's father represented Belgium and put a wreath on the monument. Pretty special for the Brits and of course we celebrate it as Veteran's Day.

Reason I asked about the Montague is that is where Mrs. JiB and I celebrated our wedding reception. We were married in Mayfair at Farm St. Church (aka Immaculate Conception) and transported our guests to Bloomsbury in rented double decker:)

I think you're talking about The Old Bank of England pub on Fleet St. My office was up the street off of Ludgate Hill near St. Pauls. Would walk down to the Bank for a small libation from time to time just to listen to the Reuters guys talk inside cricket stuff.

Captain Hate

Tammy Bruce is pretty testy today, narc, with one eff bomb, one shitcan, a couple dicks and at least one other random profanity. The difference is they're all aimed at libs and not a circular firing squad.

Captain Hate

Whoa, did anybody report that the JEF got heckled in Cinci yesterday? Is Rob Crawford currently in Secret Service custody; the ones that aren't chasing hookers?

marlene

Yes hit,but in the lower 48, we probably think daddy always has snow!
Sue,be glad you're in Texas,because you wouldn't be out on a ledge in Alaska or Maine! : )

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Tammy Bruce is pretty testy today, narc, with one eff bomb, one shitcan, a couple dicks and at least one other random profanity.--

Maybe Mitt has convinced her to switch teams?

Danube of Thought on IPad

Barone at the LUN says (today) that Romney wins with 315 EV's.

And I'm listening to corpulent toad Dick Morris predict a Romney margin of 7-10 points.

Stephanie

CH... the heckler looks like McCain in the pic over at Drudge.

SHITCANNED. I can't wait.

Jack is Back

Dick Morris just told Megyn Kelly that Axelrod used to work for him but he is still wrong and is predicting a landslide.

narciso

"Its a madhouse' I tell you, Captain, like Han after they unfroze him, everyone's getting delusions,

narciso

When was this, Morris worked mostly for Republicans like Lott, and some overseas clients

Rob Crawford
Is Rob Crawford currently in Secret Service custody; the ones that aren't chasing hookers?

If I have to be in Secret Service custody, can I at least be with the ones chasing hookers?

Clarice

From Politico: "A defeat for Barack Obama on Tuesday would be no ordinary loss for Democrats. It would be a traumatic experience: the death of the dream of liberal realignment embodied in Obama’s insurgent 2008 campaign. And it would be all the more distressing to Democrats because so many of them fervently believe they will win tomorrow."

NK

Clarice-- sounds like Politico is doing major hedging. MAJOR hedging.

Porchlight

MAJOR hedging, NK. I'm seeing it everywhere now.

Danube of Thought on IPad

A tweet:
Indys swinging back to Romney: Rasmussen (+17), CNN (+22), Monmouth (+16), ARG (+12). @keder @kesgardner, @KarlRove, @DavidLimbaugh @NolteNC

caro

Marlene, I was remiss in reporting 8" of snow in my yard a couple of weeks ago. It was pristine for about three days and has since melted, except the big pile the plow left at the end of the street.

Of course we cheer every flake we get at this time of year. The ski runs have a light coat left. Maybe some that are in the shade are holding more.

jmh, thanks for the PS hints. I will try them.

Porchlight

Jim Ryan, thanks so much for posting the photos of Woods and Doherty. Don't you love those big smiles? So sad. They will receive the heroes' honor they deserve in the Romney administration.

Dave (in MA)

Narc, the Toesucker worked for the Cigarshover as far back as when he had AR state troopers helping him out whenever he was in the mood to get some strange.

caro

Guess the word I left out.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Some comments are hilarious even though they're not intended strictly as jokes.
One such is Dave at 2:36.

Extraneus

And it would be all the more distressing to Democrats because so many of them fervently believe they will win tomorrow.

Ain't that just a kick in the ass? Can I have a huge archive of videos showing their distress?

GMAX

OK 5.8% + R in partisan self ID?

That is about the same as Gallup last got in their own partisan self ID poll.

Both using large samples with very small MOE of around 1%.

So while a lot of you thought I was insane at R + 2 months back, I may not have been insane enough! WHOA NELLIE, momma is gonna give me a Christmas present come early.

This is what Barone is seeing BTW.

If Republicans exceed Democrats, and Indys go strong for Romney, the only additional factor to know, is the crossover vote, and it would have to be massively more Republicans going for Zero ( I dont know one BTW) versus Democrats pulling the Romney lever, of which I bet everyone knows at least one of those.

Cake is baked, dont let the door hit yours or the Mrs. rather ample backside on the way out, Zero.

Dave (in MA)

Ig, I guess I'm just channeling the good Captain.

Janet

Guess the word I left out.

shitcanned?

Danube of Thought on IPad

If Romney doesn't win, I don't see how Morris can ever get another TV gig.

narciso

Does the careers of Steve Schmidt and Bob Beckel, not give you pause, at that statment

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Cake is baked--

Now if we can just keep Christie from finding it before tomorrow Mitt's home free.

marlene

caro--just flurries here,I think Sunday River,where we "jeeped" a month ago has started making snow.

Dave (in MA)
Can I have a huge archive of videos showing their distress?
I'd be happy with just one clip showing Crissy Matthews and Ralph Maddow reacting.
NK

DoT-- not to be devil's advocate, but what about all of the JEF advocates who guaranty a JEF win-- how do they get a TV after JEF loses? all of these TV Pundits spin and lie with stats and BUT...BUT... explanations. The last thing these characters worry about is being correct; as long as their appearances bring in iewers of a certain type they keep their TV gigs... That's Show Business!

Captain Hate

DoT, there's always a bigger fool.

jimmyk

Does the careers of Steve Schmidt and Bob Beckel, not give you pause, at that statment

Not to mention Peggy Noonan and her ilk. And in related ways, Ben Bernanke, Robert Rubin, etc., etc. These people never go away no matter how wrong they are, except in the live boy/dead woman situation, and even then, not if they are Democrats.

Extraneus

Off Topic: Anyone know the best way to do the Napa wineries these days? Is the Wine Train the best bet?

Porchlight

Here's my theory: IF Romney pulls out a big win, it'll be because 1) the cake was baked AND 2) there was a preference cascade.

Cake is baked: Jan 2009-September 2012, voters decide this sucks and we don't want more of it. Polls don't pick it up for all the reasons we've discussed.

Preference cascade: after the first debate, voters who already don't like what we have now see that what we might get actually looks pretty great.

It's 1) that got Ras to R +2.6 at the end of September. It's 2) that got him to R +5.8 today.

MAM

I'm still here with Sue, but I have one foot out on the ledge, one inside. If you all only knew how afraid I am of heights, you would be howling with laughter at the thought of me on a ledge:) Go Mitt - and finish strong!!

I'll check in later - busy at work (among all of these higher ed libs!!) You guys are the best.

NK

Philip Klein Wash examiner-- very sharp conservative predicts JEF wins with 277EVs, blames Ohio and Wisc: http://washingtonexaminer.com/prediction-obama-wins-narrow-electoral-college-victory/article/2512619#.UJgAF4WhA-M

NK

The Philip Klein thing may push Sue over and off the ledge.

Some Guy

Off Topic: Anyone know the best way to do the Napa wineries these days?

Go to Sonoma instead. The wineries are happier to see you, don't charge as much, more fun conversations, etc.

Sue

I've been over and off the ledge so many times today that I'm like a jumping bean. What I'm worried about now is a popular vote win for Romney and an EC win for Obama.

hit and run

Ext:
Off Topic: Anyone know the best way to do the Napa wineries these days? Is the Wine Train the best bet?

Hire DrJ to go with you.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

This is from the last thread but I wanted to repost it to make sure DrJ sees it so linearthinker is on his meetup list.

(I also answer to LT, writing from somewhere in the central Sierra.)

Posted by: linearthinker | November 04, 2012 at 11:15 PM

henry

By Klein's logic, Barrett won in June.

Sue

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict

VA EARLY VOTE: In '08, absentee turnout was 11.8% of all RVs in Obama counties, 7.9% in McCain's. '12 = 9.0% in O, 6.5% in M.

Me: What does this mean? Other than the gap is narrower?

Sue

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict

VA EARLY VOTE: On Fri, turnout was just 67.6% of '08 absentees in Obama counties, 75.8% in McCain. Now 83.3% in Obama, 86.7% in McCain

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

I see NK's Phil Klein (who writes for AmSpec occasionally) and raise him a Quinn Hillyer another very sharp conservative who writes for AmSpec and sees a Mittens victory tomorrow.

NK

Henry-- Klein's prediction is based on JEF winning Wisc and Ohio. if he's wrong about those 2, it's 296EVs for POTUS & VicePOTUS RR.

someone

Sue, Jay Cost has written about that. Not going to happen if the split is more than 0.5%

NK

Ig-- I wasn't endorsing the Klein prediction-- Klein just highlights the meaning of Wisc and Ohio. Flip those states around in the various combinations, and all breaks loose.

Old Lurker

Porch "OL, I would so love for you to move here! And come to my Anglican church (if I'm remembering previous conversations correctly). :)"

You remember correctly Porch. Yesterday I was so po'd my wife wanted me to go sit in the car until after church! But I stayed and afterwards she asked if I wanted to go out the front to pay respects to the preacher or out the back. We went out the back...

Porchlight

Klein is interesting. But O won VA by more than he won OH. How then does Klein figure that R loses OH and wins VA? No analysis there of why the states are different.

Also he mentions nothing but toplines. Nothing about independents, enthusiasm, historical trends, economic indicators - just public polling.

He does note that he correctly predicted 48/50 states last time (same as Silver). But the polling was so much more obviously trending O then.

JeanD

"...and I saw O's reflection on the tear-covered shills, cause a landslide took them down..."

(stuff Stevie Nicks will be saying tomorrow night while watching MSNBC)

My report from Cincy, Ahia:

Phone has been ringing off the hook for a week with GOTV robocalls, quick polls, and the like. 2 live calls from Americans for Prosperity; recorded messages from Fred Thompson, Clint Eastwood, John Boehner and others. Also had a door knock from a Romney guy (first time in 22 years that someone has knocked on our door to GOTV).

I got a live call on Saturday from OfA, my first contact from the O boosters. They were looking for volunteers to help get out the O vote. I declined.

My sister went to the West Chester rally with her 2 kids, ages 9 and 11. They got there at 1:30 in the afternoon (for a 7 pm event) and didn't get home until after 10 pm. It was an overflow crowd with people turned away, everyone enthusiastic, and having fun despite the cold temps. Her reward for getting there 5.5 hours early: front row, and having her kids get to shake the hands of Mitt, Paul, and their wives, or, as I call them, our future first families.

Landslide. And, if not, I'll help push the crow around on the plate.

DrJ

Off Topic: Anyone know the best way to do the Napa wineries these days? Is the Wine Train the best bet?

I'm always game for that trip!

I'm basically with Some Guy: go to Sonoma instead. I love Alexander Valley and the surrounding appelations, the crowds are few, the tasting often is free, and most of the vineyards really love to talk about wine.

If you chat them up and you convince them that you know wines, many pull some really fine bottles from under the counter that the hoi polloi does not get.

Napa does have some magnificent wines and wineries. Were I to go I would still travel by car as long as someone in your group didn't drink too much. That way you can go where you want and linger as you like.

Last I remember the Wine Train does not stop, but you get food and wine as it goes up Napa Valley and then back. This may have changed, though, so please do look it up.

And do try to go during the week if you can. Napa still gets many wine snobs tasting who seem to have as their only purpose for their visit to show off their vast, impressive and underrated understanding of all things oenophilia. In other words, they are flaming a**holes. Going mid-week keeps these sorts to a minimum.

Note: I lived for many years in Sonoma County (above the Valley of the Moon) so I have decided prejudices.

NK

Ct Power Restoration: only 200 customers added back this morning -- 1200 still without power in the town. I guess TomM is in the UNlucky 15%. hang in there Tom.

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