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November 27, 2012

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Clarice

Posted it on facebook. wish I had some more prominent place to draw attention to this.

GMAX

Shouldnt there have been more votes for Romney than McCain? I heard a lot about stay at home Republicans with McCain. Plus the swing in Indys would auger an significant increase, would it not? And at least a few Democrats had buyers remorse, at least according to most every pollster, the crossover was slightly greater.

I dont see a reason to cheer, other than maybe we decide to send clear message conservatives since squishy moderates seem to not have the "right stuff."

Gus

Was Romney running against McCain?

rse

I will respond to Ignatz's point and that Byron York article over here. Wearing my Deerstalker cap and holding my magnifying glass and combing the footnotes has yielded the book I am darn sure bo either read at Occidental or Columbia that guides his worldview. His language even mirrors passages. I was just following up on something Robert Moses had in turn cited.

I can also tell precisely where the flaws are and what is being misrepresented but it is the overall blueprint. Not just ed or healthcare. It's the political vision for society and the bogus rationales. That a student or typical reader would not necessarily catch.

And usefully enough, it has footnotes too.

One of those mornings that wore out the printer cartridge. But it's the vision.

Jack is Back

rse,

I don't believe it was any one book or mentor but rather he was a committed Marxist since he came of age to reason. When he came to the mainland to attend Oxy, he was already participating in the rhetoric of redistribution, equalization and socio-politico common development. We are all family - government regulated and planned family - common cause and effort supported by police action enforcement. Look at how ObaamCare will strengthen the redistribution of not only income but social equality - we will all suffer the same miseries.

jimmyk

It's unfortunate that "getting more votes than McCain" was set up as any kind of benchmark. What does that show, when there the voting age population is 5 million larger than in 2008? When (I suspect) millions of people who voted for Obama in '08 voted for Romney this time? It's clear that a lot of people just stayed home, on both sides.

Jane - Mock the media

I think there was fraud.

rse

JIB-it turns out to be a quite seminal book which I had never heard of. It cites an earlier book that ought to be on radar screens but isn't.

Books like these and certain people never get mentioned because it unlocks so much once you become aware of them. But these are the terms he uses and CORE. Useful because it is very graphic on what the assumptions are.

Be glad I have this. It's like a crystal ball on the arguments to be used. And the supposed research is quite tainted. I recognize those publishers and the institutes.

I got so upset after the last chapter I stopped to do a box of ornaments myself.

Porchlight

It's unfortunate that "getting more votes than McCain" was set up as any kind of benchmark.

It's not set up to be a good kind of benchmark. It's a very bad thing indeed. Obama didn't even get as many votes as Bush in 2004. Yes, many millions stayed home, and if we can't figure out why - I posted on the last thread that I very much doubt that it can be blamed on ORCA in any serious way - we are not going to be able to fix it.

Theo

The numbers appear to shake out this way: When all the counting is done, Obama will have netted about four million fewer votes than in 2008. This roughly breaks down as follows: Five and a half million fewer white votes, half a million fewer black votes (!) and two million more Latino votes.

Of course, not every 2008 voter voted in 2012 -- some died or moved away or just decided not to. In addition, some who voted in 2012 were not eligible to vote in 2008 (age or citizenship). But these things largely cancel each other out.

The reason why there are likely to be fewer votes cast in 2012 than in 2008 is primarily because many whites who voted for Obama in 2008 stayed home in 2008. Of course, most Obama '08 voters regardless of race or ethnicity, did so again. Some Obama '08 voters (mostly white but at least some blacks) voted Romney in '12. But of the white voters who voted for Obama in '08 and were eligible to vote in 2012 but did not vote for Obama in 2012, most simply stayed home.

Romney lost for two reasons: (a) the inability to persuade disenchanted 2008 Obama voters (particularly whites) to vote for him rather than stay home and (b) the large increase in Hispanic votes over 2008, almost all of which went to Obama.

Theo

Porch --

ORCA truly had just about nothing to do with it. The Election Day crash of ORCA was pretty meaningless. Instead of having a real time list of strong Romney supporters who had not voted (so they could robocall them and urge them to vote), the Romney campaign simply robocalled on a "carpet bomb" basis everyone on the list without knowing if they had voted or not.

Election Day robocalls are not very effective to begin with and making more than you optimally need to does not cost you votes, just money, which they had plenty of.

As I posted above, the 2008 voters who stayed at home in 2012 were mostly people who had voted for Obama in 2008. This was a group that was hard for Romney to persuade, given that they had preferred Obama over McCain in the first place.

Porchlight

Romney lost for two reasons: (a) the inability to persuade disenchanted 2008 Obama voters (particularly whites) to vote for him rather than stay home and (b) the large increase in Hispanic votes over 2008, almost all of which went to Obama.

This is correct. I think the reason is that Romney was successfully demonized very early on and especially in the swing states. He couldn't easily counter this b/c his money was tied up until after the nomination (I don't think we can afford to wait so long to nominate candidates in the future). He began to make some progress after the first debate, but couldn't do it fast enough, plus Sandy was probably a factor. Lukewarm Obama '08 voters didn't think Romney had the stuff and stayed home.

Let's face it, the caricature of Romney as someone put it on the last thread - 1/2 guy on Monopoly board, 1/2 Gordon Gekko - worked.

Porchlight

Exactly Theo - sorry, was typing and didn't see your 3:13 before my 3:14.

narciso

How was Boca, Porch.

Theo

Porch --

I do not think that the "demonization" of Romney was an important factor with Latino voters. Romney did not do much worse among Latinos than McCain did on a percentage basis. (McCain got 31% and Romney got 27%.) The real problem for Romney was the dramatic increase in the NUMBER of Latino votes. Whatever inspired Latinos to turn out, I doubt that it was to vote against Gordon Gekko.

The demonization of Romney may well have had an effect on disenchanted Obama '08 voters and caused them to stay home rather than vote for Romney. But to be fair, Romney did some of that demonization himself with things like the "47%" speech.

I think that the lesson of 2012 is the same as the lesson of 2004 -- if you are the party out of power and running against a less than wildly popular president, you probably should not nominate a tall, aloof, rich guy from Massachusetts.

Porchlight

I think that the lesson of 2012 is the same as the lesson of 2004 -- if you are the party out of power and running against a less than wildly popular president, you probably should not nominate a tall, aloof, rich guy from Massachusetts.

Heh. Pretty much. Though I like Romney so very much better than Kerry.

The Obama campaign did a lot of outreach to Hispanics and with the power of incumbency, did it consistently throughout his first term. I guess that plus fraud paid off.

Porchlight

narciso, Boca was great. It was warm enough to swim and that's all my daughters care about. Littlest 2yo Porch did not successfully escape his condo confines and make his way alone into the wide wide world, which was all I was worried about.

narciso

Well that's good to hear, it's a little distressing how no objective fact, seemed to deter them from Voting, lemming like,

narciso

Of course, when there was no fraud, everyone from John Conyers to Robert Kennedy jr, insisted there was.

jimmyk

Oops, posted this on the wrong thread:


Of course, the left claims that Republicans suppress the vote. For example this from the Palm Beach Post:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/early-voting-curbs-called-power-play/nTFDy/

As though only having 8 days of early voting instead of 14 is some great act of oppression. And then there's the workd of the despicable Charlie Crist.

narciso

Well last time, he and his servant, Greer, looted the party treasury, jimmy, so they needed an excuse then;

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/11/27/wapo-ombud-hamas-rockets-are-like-bee-stings/

pagar

http://www.rnla.org/votefraud.asp

case after case-probably just the tip of the voter fraud iceberg that will destroy the US,IMO.

"According to Auditor-Treasurer Doug Groh, all three people indicated that they are not citizens on their voter registration forms. However, the three people continued to fill out their forms and also voted."

Carol Herman

Mittens has disappeared!

After being bombarded with Mitt for at least six months of nasty warfare ... Obama not only won ... I could'a told ya ... he didn't want to suppress his turnout. So he ran as the "underdog."

You didn't even see it coming!

Next time? All you do when you're very, very popular, is give people a reason for not voting for ya.

Instead? You've got to keep them on the edge of their seats. Just like spaghetti westerns.

Jor

TM -- you forgot to mention that Romney is now at 47 PERCENT. Oh the irony!. It was a clear blow out. Electorally. Popular margin is over 3% -- may head even further up. Victory was larger than Bush's victory over Kerry --- which apparently was a MANDATE.

I just think the 47% for Mr. 47% servers the wingers right.

Jor

Oh yea where is Mittens --- TM. Where are the Mitten followers? How come no posts on Mittens comments? He was "severely conservative". Why have you guys given up on him?

narciso

Well that's spreadsheet is of little utility, why did 4 million fewer people, by my best guess,
not vote,

Theo

Narciso --

When I crunch the numbers, the main reason that there were about 4 million fewer voters in 2012 than in 2008 is that a lot of people (mostly white voters) who voted for Obama in 2008 stayed home in 2012.

See my 3:09 post.

(The reason why there are likely to be fewer votes cast in 2012 than in 2008 is primarily because many whites who voted for Obama in 2008 stayed home in 2012.)

Foo Bar

Karl Rove made a similar mistake in a WSJ column. He claimed that turnout was only 123.6 million and failed to realize that was just a preliminary total. The turnout tally is already over 127 million and might end up a few million above that.

I have tried and failed to get the Journal to issue a correction.

Theo

Foo Bar --

I was puzzled by Rove's article at the time. *I* knew that the numbers were incomplete at the time and *I* knew that Romney would pass McCain. He is this political numbers genius. How could he NOT have known? It struck me as a ridiculous rookie mistake by someone super sophisticated.

But maybe not. Maybe he had a different motivation. The numbers that have been straggling in of late are mostly from California and New York (and I expect a lot more from New York yet to arrive) and Obama has been getting nearly 60% of them. His lead -- about 2.3 points on election night -- is now almost 3.5 points.

Maybe Rove wanted to write his "wrap up" column when (a) people still cared and (b) the numbers were as good as they were going to get.

At this point, I have no idea how many votes there will be. A preliminary estimate was 129 million (in 2008 it was 131 and change)but we are close to 127.8 million and still counting.

Carol Herman

Maybe, the better question is why he got selected? And, why in the early stages, the GOP primaries look like a disaster area waiting to happen.

The good news for Romney is that he's allowed to fade away. People don't really seem all that interested.

While McCain is doing everything in his power to be on TV. While Rove isn't on TV, either.

What will happen when people begin writing books?

Dan Senor, meanwhile, is probably the most surprised man on earth.

DonM

There are two kinds of vote fraud: One kind creates votes from nothing, like the Pennsylvania districts that had 130% of registered votes, all for Obama (after they threw out (R) poll watchers.

The other kind is destruction of votes, as happens in many Democrat precincts. The judge looks at the ballot, and doesn't put it in the box.

BR

And the third kind, DonM, where Romney votes were changed to Obama votes by the casino software called Skytl.

16.325 days

But it's a win either way. Either the fraud is exposed and handled before Dec 17th or those who voted for him will have four more years to experience the misery of tyranny. They'll either go extinct or come to their senses.

Ha, I dreamt I saw him flush himself down the toilet as AF1 flew over the Himalayas.

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