The Big Night Is Upon Us

The first exit polls should be de-embargoed at 5 PM Eastern. DO remember 2004, when the early exit polls all pointed to Kerry, which made for a long and disappointing night for our friends on the left.

Comments

[NK]

Mr Maguire-- welcome back to the world of electrical power and pixels.

[Have Blue]

When do polls close in Mass.?

[Dave (in MA)]

8

[windansea]

Tell us what your drinking!

Me> tall glass of crushed ice, liberal portions of icy vodka, topped with iced green tee, splash of mango juice, and squeeze of fresh lime

[RichatUF]

I'm drinking coffee. Lots and lots of coffee.

[Jack is Back]

Catholic vote in Florida is going to make the difference. We have a couple of religious freedom type of amendments and the Bishops in Florida have sent out letters, had the various pastors extend homilies on the amendments and even made up posters to hang in the gathering spaces of each church.

At my parish I have noticed a number of "I am Catholic and I vote" window and bumper stickers. Last time they swung toward O but not this time.

[Dave (in MA)]

Some flat diet coke that I got about an hour ago and haven't finished yet.

[Jack is Back]

Not yet drinking except agua con gas. Have to pick up the car (finally) at the garage then we go with friends to the club for Prime Rib dinner night. Will watch the first returns there with my election night usual - a Daiquiri (original) cold and straight up - only lime for flavor.

[Mustang0302]

Pack your trash, BHO. And leave all the R's on the damned keyboards when you go.

[hit and run]

windansea:
Tell us what your drinking!

Nothing! Can you believe it -- there's a law that you can't purchase alcohol on election day here.

WTF!?!1?!!?!!?

[Jack is Back]

From Matt Rhoads, Mitt's campaign manager: [I know its biased]

Despite what the Obama campaign wants you to believe, early voting results show President Obama doesn't have an advantage over Governor Romney.

In fact, Mitt currently leads Barack Obama 52% to 45% among voters who have already cast their ballots.

Poll after poll reports Mitt leading among independents -- and 2.5 million independents in battleground states have either voted or have ballots in hand.

Thanks to you, our paid media effort, ground operations, and voter contact programs are fully funded -- which will help our momentum even more.

The Republican team has the resources to expand the map in ways that weren't possible in past cycles -- without reducing efforts in other target states.

Despite what the liberals say, it's clear: Mitt and the Republican team's plan continues to resonate with voters, volunteers, and donors.

[Dave (in MA)]

Where is that, H&R?

[centralcal]

Now, Hit - why didn't you shop for alcohol yesterday? You knew this day was coming!

[windansea]

Daquiris are also one of my favorites JIB

take early exit polls with grain of salt, they have changed how they do it, omitting many red states, will favor Obama, if even or close probably means RR landslide.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2012/11/06/will-someone-press-prematurely-project-obama-winner-based-dem-dominated-

[hit and run]

FALSE ALARM: I was lying about alcohol sales.

[NKOnIPad]

Mustang, is that you? Been a while, no?

[srp]

It's 11:20PM here in Florence. I hope I can stay up long enough to find out what happened. Lots of young Americans here and everybody stays up late, so there may be noise in the streets when the outcome is decided.

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

Tito's club soda, no fruit.

[TexasIsHeaven]

I'm standing by my prediction of 320 electoral votes for Romney. We're fixin' to see how close I get.

Even if Romney doesn't hit 320 JEF is still going to get shit canned.

And I'm going to be just as pleased.

[sbw]

Chicago newspapers are reporting Dewey defeats Truman.

[centralcal]

Don't tell me srp - you're a lurker from Florence? You know, we won't know much for a couple hours yet, you could take a quick power nap till then and be ready to go when the real no.s hit.

[Peter]

Look who is just down the road from Tom....
LUN

[windansea]

instapundit voters/readers reporting longest lines ever in red areas, shorter than usual in blue hells

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

SRP,

If I were you I'd sleep now - and when you wake up it will be over.

[hit and run]

windansea:
take early exit polls with grain of salt, they have changed how they do it, omitting many red states, will favor Obama, if even or close probably means RR landslide.

Even before the change in methods and states, exit polls were perilous in their raw state.

In 2008, Mark Blumenthal tells us (yes, that's a PuffHo link) that exit polls in 2008 over-called Obama by an average of 4.7%.

In my pre-election 2008 post, I predicted it would be a 6.2% Obama advantage.

Oh well.

[srp]

Centrical:

I'm an Angeleno on vacation who tends to stay up late. I've posted here over the years--ah, the good old days of picking apart trial testimony--but mostly I lurk.

The JOM crowd is one of the friendlier spots on the tubes to ride this thing out.

[Captain Hate]

MUSTANG!!! Welcome back.

Btw NK, I'd imagine TM still doesn't have power from the shortness and lack of links in his posts.

[NKOnIPad]

CaptH if the local ute is to be believed only 76 town customers don t have power (less than 1%) but home internet access will come back after electric -- that s true.

[Extraneus]

Does anyone know of a reputable 501(c) organization dedicated to fixing our voting system to prevent fraud? Hopefully Romney wins and tasks an ass-kicking law & order AG with cleaning this up, but I'd donate money to the cause.

This rickety voting system of ours needs a serious overhaul, and the best time to do it is right after the election, not two or four years from now.

[Chewie]

"David Freddoso @freddoso
EXITS: Only 25% say they're better off than four years ago. per AP"

http://washingtonexaminer.com/examiner-tweets-election-updates/article/2512735#.UJmPeMXYcR8

[Chewie]

"Preliminary results of an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press show that the presidential election hinges once again on the economy.

The survey of voters as they leave polling places Tuesday shows 6 in 10 voters say the economy is the top issue facing the nation, with unemployment and rising prices hitting voters hard.

About 4 in 10 say they think the nation's economy is on the mend, but more say that things are getting worse or are bad and stagnating."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/exit-poll-shows-economy-still-top-concern#overlay-context=

[MAM]

Been busy all day and must leave work shortly to go vote. I'm literally (Bidenism) trembling and just hoping to God that what I'm feeling is excitement for tonight's results. I'll be back later - and thanks to all of you who updated this blog for the rest of us today. I'm off to meet my husband and then off to vote for Scott Brown and Mitt Romney. YAHOO!!!

[Sue]

I have an appointment for a pedicure at 5. After that, I plan on drinking a cold beer or two while I wait on the polls to close.

[Captain Hate]

Ok NK; I'll defer to your local knowledge.

[anonamom]

Report from my brother in Owosso, MI:

"There were more people there than I've seen in the 11 years I've voted at that precinct."

And it's cold and gray.

[jimmyk]

From the last thread, where Rather says, “Don’t taunt the alligator until after you cross the creek,” he seems to reveal that he sees Romney as the alligator. Not that that's a surprise.

[Chewie]

"Philip Klein @philipaklein
RT @jamiedupree: 41% say the government should do more - 53% say the government is doing too much; it was flipped 51-43 in 2008"

http://washingtonexaminer.com/examiner-tweets-election-updates/article/2512735#.UJmPeMXYcR8

[Rob Crawford]

Nothing! Can you believe it -- there's a law that you can't purchase alcohol on election day here.

Tsk, tsk, tsk. Preparation is half the battle...

[Mustang0302]

Howdy, Cap'n, howdy, NK. It has been awhile. Coming back here's like coming back home.

Sue, darlin', come back in offa that ledge!

[Chewie]

These folks must not have been impacted by Sandy...

"Philip Klein @philipaklein
RT @jamiedupree: 15% said Obama's hurricane response was the most important factor in their vote; 55% said minor/not a factor"

http://washingtonexaminer.com/examiner-tweets-election-updates/article/2512735#.UJmPeMXYcR8

[Chewie]

Drudge: "EXIT POLLS: RACE TIGHT"

http://www.drudgereport.com/

[Rob Crawford]

Has the sheer delicious irony of the left's beloved UN observers calling for the US to have voter ID been discussed yet?

If not, would anyone be bothered if we talk about it some more? Because that's irony so rich you almost can't take it all in.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Does anyone know of a reputable 501(c) organization dedicated to fixing our voting system to prevent fraud?--

Was going to say ACORN but they morphed into something else. Can anyone help Ex out with their new name?

[Sue]

I have never been on a ledge. I have Romney winning 285 to 253. In fact I was the first to post my predictions. Others put me on a ledge.

[jimmyk]

This rickety voting system of ours needs a serious overhaul

Yeah, I don't see the technology as an improvement. I just voted in NYC, and the scanner just confirms that your vote has been counted, but it doesn't confirm how you voted. I much preferred the ka-chunk of the old mechanical machines, but if they're going to go this route, at least make it more transparent. I just really hope it isn't close this time, and President Romney and all those Republican governors put in some real fixes.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--15% said Obama's hurricane response was the most important factor in their vote--

I hope that is just dorks who were voting for him anyway but that anyone would name that the most important factor makes one fear for his country.

[Peter]

Iggy, here in New York Acorn= Working Families Party

[Rob Crawford]

Earliest returns in from Ohio -- as of 6:30am this morning, absolutely no one had voted. Doesn't look good for Romney.

[NKOnIPad]

Peter thanks for the WSJ link. Rev Al -- i still remember the first time i saw him on TV in 1985 after the bernie goetz shooting. He's not as fat now and he has a bunch more dough, but otherwise nothing's changed. As a teenager in the 70s rev al used to preach as part of the James Brown road shows. Yep rev al and the godfather of soul.

[henry]

Got home early... 4 deer crossed my lower deck while my Mac booted up. Since my lunchtime fortune cookie said I'd make good decisions today, I've decided to go straight to a martini. Should have picked up a deer tag when I got ammo...

[Chewie]

Here we go...

Drudge:
"EXITS: Obama has 190 electoral votes and Romney has 191 locked...

EXIT POLLS: RACE TIGHT
R: NC, FL
O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA
"

http://www.drudgereport.com/

[Have Blue]

What am I drinking?

Right now Sam Adam's Winter Lager, and previously way too much coffee.

Have drunk so much coffee in the last three days I may never sleep again.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--I have never been on a ledge.--

Hit, your archival skills are being called for.

[Rob Crawford]

On a more serious note, a couple of hours ago Hannity had Bill Cunningham on. Take it with a grain of salt, but he said Hamilton County BoE said traffic was on track for a 70+% turnout in Republican-heavy areas. Not so high in Democrat-heavy areas.

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

Based on all the sound bites, I'm very optimistic.

[jimmyk]

How can exit polls be very meaningful hours before the polls close? Still, I hope that Drudge headline is wrong....

[MarkO]

Obama has Ohio? That's really not good at all. I hope I misread that.

[hit and run]

Sue:
After that, I plan on drinking a cold beer or two...

Me too. Every half hour.

I'm setting up tabs in another window of vote results, going straight to Sec of State pages. So far have NC (of course), FL, OH, PA. Would add NH and WI if I could find a good page to use. I'm not sure watching MN or MI obsessively is worth it yet, but will consider. As we move west, I'll add CO and NV.

[MarkO]

If the Drudge exit polls hold up, DOOM.

[NKOnIPad]

No offense to any other poster - but the earliest memories I have of JOM comments while i lurked were Mustang's.

[Extraneus]

It's good for Drudge to say it's close. Surely more R's than D's will see that and get to the polls.

[someone]

If after all these years anyone here does anything because of exit polls but laugh, you're hopeless.

Just ask President Kerry.

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

Drudge is dreadful. HOw dare he?!

[Rob Crawford]

FFS people, exit polls are worse than the normal ones.

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

For ledge sitters:

May I be the first to call you President Kerry.

Said by Bob Shrum, the loser's campaign manager about this time on election day 2004 based on the exit polls.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Just ask President Kerry.

Posted by: someone | November 06, 2012 at 05:53 PM--

Heh. Wonder if anyone will listen to you.

[hit and run]

Iggy:
Hit, your archival skills are being called for.

Sure.

*****************
Then I suggest you crawl out on a curb rather than a ledge. :)

Posted by: Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki | November 01, 2012 at 11:27 AM
*****************
That is exactly what I'm doing. Cautiously optimistic.

Posted by: Sue | November 01, 2012 at 11:29 AM

[Melinda Romanoff on Kindle]

Exit polling is not going to be friendly this cycle, so I'm questioning those, right here, right now.

[Chewie]

Data seems limited. Probably ok for what is on voter minds, but not really for vote counts...

"At 11 a.m. today, representatives from the consortium of news organizations that sponsor the National Election Pool will enter a “quarantine room,” where they’ll look at data gathered via exit polls, Michael Calderone reports.

Six hours later, staffers will be permitted to start sending data to their respective news organizations, while additional exit polls, especially on the West Coast, keep coming in.

The news orgs represented — ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox and the AP — can report general trends but cannot report the results of exit polls until the polls close.

At 5 p.m., the quarantine will lift, and the representatives will be able to share their data with their respective organizations."

lun

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

Sorry I stepped on your line, someone. I hadn't refreshed.

[NKOnIPad]

Drudge builds drama? Shocking...

[centralcal]

Lawdy folks - exit polls!!!!! Have you learned nothing from "may I call you President Kerry?"

[hit and run]

someone:
If after all these years anyone here does anything because of exit polls but laugh, you're hopeless.

And worth laughing at.

[Gus]

I used to have a MUSTANG 302. It got SHITCANNED, in a wreck
My current model is a '68 289. But she's been put away for the winter.

[srp]

It'll be interesting to see if the Republican Ohio operation can pull off a turnout miracle like Rove's in 2004. The children of the corn just kept coming out and voting that year from every rural and exurban county and one of the Dem operatives later said something like "just never ran out of voters."

[Captain Hate]

Sorry I don't have any new music recs for you, Mustang.

[windansea]

I predict this thread will break JOM record for comments

[Mustang0302]

"Heeere, kitty-kitty-kitties..."

[Elliott]

I hope I can stay up long enough to find out what happened.

I'm in a similar boat, srp. Rather than greeting tomorrow's dawn in a state of tense ignorance, I prefer Ohio's result be imparted to me while I am possessed of the happy aequanimity of mind, body, and spirit that is acquired not through long tuition in the Philosophic Art, but descends unbidden upon one who discovers at the felicitous, matinal hour of 3:15 that 67% of Kentucky's voters desire, without any further alteration to our glorious Constitution, that the President be eligible to regain his office 4 years hence.

[rse]

henry-you'll be so glad to know there was another nas workshop we were not invited to in our road to a Dirigiste economy. "Integrating Manufacturing, Design, and Innovation to Thrive in the Changing Global Economy"

I perused it and saw repeated references to Finland again showing the way Forward!

No thanks. Let's send this insider vision at our expense vision packing.

[henry]

Hit, the WisPolitics people will put up a WI vote tracking site after the polls close (8 CST). They will be pretty good at updating any polling issues as well.

[dublindave]

Man in PA. Used his cell phone to record a touch screen voting machine continually switch his vote from Obama to Romney.

Thousands of other cases across the country where voting machines are intentionally giving Obama votes to Romney. All the machines are DIEBOLD. The CEO of DIEBOLD became famous in 2004 when he told a group of Republicans at a George Bush fundraiser that he intended to make sure Bush would win Ohio.

Get the lawyers ready boys, it's going to be a long month.

[Buckeye]

Exit polls highly suspect. Suburbs (republican) in Ohio reporting extremely high turnout

[hit and run]

Thx,henry!

[someone]

btw, some Ace commenters are saying ORCA projects Romney taking every in-play state except Nevada

[Chewie]

Well if VA (toss up) or NH (O) come in for Romney we will get is idea if these early "trends" mean anything.

[Captain Hate]

dumbassdave proving the bars aren't closed everywhere on election day

[DebinNC]

Last time BOzo didn't carry a single county in OK. That's always amazed me.

[someone]

I think there's a stealth play for Nevada, though. I mean: Mormons!

[henry]

rse, Integrating Manufacturing, Design, and Innovation to Thrive in the Changing Global Economy... Yike! If you see acronyms like CALS, CMOST, CAMP, CSRC etc get my number from Mel and call. I did DoD / NIST / NAS funded work in that area in grad school.

[pagar]

"Sharpton continued, “This is not about what you like, this is about whether you like yourself."

How could any American vote for a Democrat and like themselves in 2012.

Apparently the Democrats in CT are so demoralized that Obama had to send one of his head shakedown artist down to encourage them to vote.

"In attendance at the event were Gov. Dannel Malloy (D), Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman (D), U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D), U.S. Rep. Jim Himes (D), and U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy (D), who is in a toss-up race for a U.S. Senate seat with Linda McMahon (R). Mayor Bill Finch (D) of Bridgeport was also present.

Looks like these are the leading Democrats in the state and Sharpton has to embarrass them into voting. Funniest thing I've seen all day.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/05/Sharpton-To-Bridgeport-Voters-You-re-Too-Lazy-and-Ungrateful

[Gus]

Henry......Free Cake...think about it... FREE CAKE!!!!

[windansea]

Most important exit poll data so far...

Only 25% of respondents think they’re better off than four years ago.

[henry]

Gus, too late. Martini and driving don't mix.

[jimmyk]

Sheesh, Drudge already moved OH from O to tossup. What a joke.

[Chewie]

Copied from comment at another site (FR link lun, comment #81), so don't know if true...

"Fox exit polls, overall nationally. Romney 52. Obama 46"

If it is, I find it hard to believe things are as close as Drudge headline. I think news orgs spent 2 minutes analyzing data in quarantine room and 2 hours writing spin for 5pm release.

[Captain Hate]

Only 25% of respondents think they’re better off than four years ago.

That's a brutal indictment of the JEF, whose "positive" ads had an air of "I brought the country back" blah blah to them.

[Clarice]

If you believe in exit poll reports, cap your hands and send SCAM your name and address.

Lazy, how generous of you--stick around .

[Captain Hate]

Drudge is shitting in that goofball hat he covers his sparsely covered dome with. Ohio is going for Romney.

[Extraneus]

Good to know that dd is in favor of cleaning up the voting system, as long as voters don't have to identify themselves or somehow be prevented from voting more than once, and as long as poll workers are still able to dump or find bags of uncounted ballots.