The Big Night Is Upon Us

The first exit polls should be de-embargoed at 5 PM Eastern. DO remember 2004, when the early exit polls all pointed to Kerry, which made for a long and disappointing night for our friends on the left.

Comments

[Sara]

After we voted, I waited in the car while the kids ran in for Subway and I heard Barone's update. He was saying that in PA, the voting is extraordinarily heavy in Western and Central PA coal county and up in the affluent suburbs of Philly that have started to turn red. He also noted that voting is down around Madison and the university as well as down around the UofVA and VATech.

[(A) nuther Bub]

It's tempting to cite the Shrum/Kerry story ad infinitum, but exit polls have more often been right than wrong.

I just poured my first glass of wine and it's only 1:13 p.m. in Hawaii. Think I'll stay inebriated the rest of my life.

[Extraneus]

Who here besides Elliott is able to use "matinal hour" in a sentence?

[srp]

Just once I want to see a conference on "Stovepiping Manufacturing, Design, and Innovation to Keep Them From Killing Each Other in the Same Old Global Economy."

[Clarice]

*clap your hands* (I'm worse than usual after 2 hard days of cooking)

[DGS]

Drink for the election night coverage - Wild Turkey.

[henry]

srp: I think the usual shorthand for that is "labor union".

[Extraneus]

Long live inebriated (A)B!

[C.R.]

"A woman attempting to vote in West Boca Raton this morning was initially prohibited from entering the polling place because she was wearing a tee shirt with the letters MIT."

From Jamie Wearing Fools h/t Instapundit

[hit and run]

Abub:
but exit polls have more often been right than wrong.

Yes, but have they not been getting more wrong as the years go by? With the higher percentage of early voting, how do exit polls really account for the state of the race on election day?

According to . . . polls! . . . Republicans are quite a bit less likely to submit to an exit poll.

In the hands of a media ready, willing and able to go for the quick soundbite, how much more right than wrong are they -- talking specifically about the early reports of the exit polls, not the exit polls as they exist now, looking back on 2008 and 2004?

[windansea]

Clarice, what did you cook up for your party?

[NKOnIPad]

Unfortunately MelR told us this morning what will happen shortly after 900pm ET-- JEF will declare victory --based on exit polls and early voting and nate silver s analysis -- whatever. He ll then dare Whitey to take it away from him.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--It's tempting to cite the Shrum/Kerry story ad infinitum, but exit polls have more often been right than wrong.--

Boy howdy,
Here we are trying to save Sue and MAM's very lives and AB is literally trying to push them off the ledge.
Oh the humanity.

More seriously haven't more finalized exit polls been more accurate than what we're dealing with here; very preliminary ones?

[srp]

Henry: Those salaried types can get pretty ornery too. "How come you only design things we can't make?" "How come you only know how to make things we can't sell?"

[Barry Dauphin]

Drudge move Ohio to Toss up.

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

The mad Bombay martini mixer is about to get to work. This may be at least a two martini night. There is a problem though. As my former nav pilot brother says, one's not enough, two's too many, and three's not enough. I've been drinking them for over 50 years and, like Mikey, I still like them.

[Extraneus]

Election Judge Wears Obama Cap While Checking in Voters in Obama's Chicago Ward

[Chewie]

Looks better now...

"EXIT POLLS TIGHT
R: NC, FL
O: NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: OH, VA, CO, IA"

[Clarice]

windansea:
French rolls
Sour rye bread
roasted root vegetables
gravlax with mustard sauce
marinated grilled tenderloin with horseradish sauce
lemon squares
chocolate salami (chocolate melted and mixed with port, dried cherries, pistachios, cookies and almonds) rolled up to look like salamis which you cut to suit your need for a chocolate fix.

[henry]

srp: agree completely. Most of these big ideas never really get past the Power Point stage, but get lots of govt funding because they give the big boys something to wave at voters / shareholders. BTW, I've been a union assembly line worker as well as a suit. Smaller orgs do better with this stuff, the big guys throw studies / technology at them. The govts themselves are the biggest players throwing technology at problems instead of leadership.

[Clarice]

In 2004 the early fake exit polls often turned out to have been lies peddled by Kerry's people to depress turnout by Republicans. F exit polls. In fact, this year F all polls--this is a chi fil A election.

[Gus]

GUINNESS and CAKE, and more Guinness.

[windansea]

yummmm, at least we can imagine enjoying the feast!

Two Early Vote Analyses Point to Romney Win in #Ohio (Updated)

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/11/06/two-early-vote-analyses-point-to-romney-win-in-ohio/

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

God Clarice. If I were within 150 miles, I would hold the martinis and be on my way.

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

Holy cow Clarice. You rock!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Want to make sure I understand; disregard exit polls, except when Drudge moves one out of O's column into tossup?

[henry]

I'll switch to Guinness after this martini -- I'd like to be conscious when the polls close.

[PD]

That's a brutal indictment of the JEF, whose "positive" ads had an air of "I brought the country back" blah blah to them.

Yeah. I liked the one that claimed, "Assembly lines are humming again."

Humming!

[CompletelyLegal]

Back from voting in a VERY blue corner of California. The precinct was totally empty save for three poll workers and yours truly. There were long lines to vote in 2008. Does not mean that California will suddenly go red, of course, but Dem enthusiasm seems to be mostly gone. Keeping my fingers crossed…

[Jim Miller]

Have to boast just a little bit. I got to vote in two congressional races today.

Why? Because my congressman, Jay Inslee, resigned to run for governor (as he had already been doing for a year) He (or one of his advisors) apparently misread Washington law, thinking he had resigned late enough to prevent a special election.

Those of us in the old 1st district get to vote in the special election for the last few weeks of his term, and those of us in the new 1st district get to vote in the regular election. I'm in both.

(Who will win? In the special election, almost certainly Microsoft millionaire and Democrat Suzan DelBene. In the regular election Republican John Koster may win, though he has not been able to match her TV campaign.)

[Chewie]

"Want to make sure I understand; disregard exit polls, except when Drudge moves one out of O's column into tossup?"

No. Also regard as solid any move from O to R.

[Soylent Red]

Want to make sure I understand; disregard exit polls, except when Drudge moves one out of O's column into tossup?

Disregard exit polls, period.

And to all JOMers, as your lawyer I urge you to drink heavily.

[Clarice]

If you guys were here, I'd feed you--I made a lot of food.

[Sara]

First Election Day Reports from Citizen Journalists

Second Election Reports from Citizen Journalists, As Polls Open

Third Election Reports from Citizen Journalists: GOP Surge

[NJ Jan]

Clarice
Your energy and productivity amaze me. You make the energizer bunny look like a wimp.

[hit and run]

Posted by: Jim Miller | November 06, 2012 at 06:41 PM

Was thinking about you today. Glad you've stopped by...

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

"This rickety voting system of ours needs a serious overhaul"

Problem is it's almost entirely a matter of state law.

[PD]

FOX News not sparing any expense on their election HQ digs, eh?

[matt]

so far I see very little that gives me any faith that anyone has a clue. The spinners are like whirling dervishes today.

Heading to my local congressman's event this evening. He's a shoo in R,so we got that goin' for us, but otherwise I expect the CPCA (Communist Party of California)to continue their march into the glorious future. Why I've got my bags packed for the supertrain already.

The other big issue up in LA County is the use of condoms by porn actors. It is facing stiff resistance from the industry, but has been embraced by the politicians. LA City Councilman Ben Dover said today "we'll ram this through any way we can."

[hit and run]

Soylent:
And to all JOMers, as your lawyer I urge you to drink heavily.

I'm glad you're here, counselor. I'll probably need bail in the morning and representation thereafter.

[Gus]

Libs want chaos.

[centralcal]

I think exit polls DO have value - to analyze the actual voting results (demographics, issues, etc.)

This early, before polls have mostly closed, not so much

[Sara]

During the lull here, I want to say hi to all the unlurked lurkers.

I also want to take this opportunity to say thank you to all JOMers. I really thought early on that I'd be the only one waiting for Romney results on election night.

I still think he will win PA, so I am sticking with my original prediction that I made over 2 months ago:

R 335, O 203.

[Strawman Cometh]

It's Black Box 2010 Shiraz for me. 28 Gold Medals!

I'm in Mars Hill on NC State Business and I am free to drool over Megyn all nite long!

[DrJ]

Clarice,

I'm saddened that I won't make your party this year (the lack of invitation won't trouble me!). I fly out for a Thursday NIH panel (in Bethesda) tomorrow, and sadly this one will be in-and-out.

Please give my best wishes to your fine guests! The last one sure was a hoot.

[C.R.]

Linked at Althouse:

"Secret Service: We do not consent to our store being searched. It’s not that there’s anything illegal in here..." "... but we just employ several Colombian prostitutes and we don’t want to tempt you guys."

Sign in the window of a store called Raygun — someplace in Iowa where Obama was appearing. The shopkeeper, Mike Draper, was told he'd have to close 4 hours early and then that he could stay open if he let the Secret Service search the place.  Draper said no to both and got away with it. This actually is America, you know.

[Danube of Thought on IPad]

The initial Martini is still 70 minutes away.

Trust me--a will of iron.

[jimmyk]

Ig, see my post near the bottom of the previous page for your answer.

[Barbara]

I'm a nervous wreck!

[anonamom]

Clarice, the youTube link with the recipe for the chocolate "salami" was enticing.
Do you have that fancy appliance (which looks useful) or did you just modify it for a more conventional kitchen (ie stove and mixer)?

[Clarice]

NJJan, I am losing energy every day. I used to be able to do this much more quickly..OTOH, my bread baking skills have truly blossomed.after lots of experimentation.

[Chewie]

Well this would explain exit poll results...

WAPO: "The first wave of exit polling paints a picture of an electorate that is slightly more Republican than the one that helped elect President Obama in 2008."

They appear to be polling in Dem districts. Those GOP areas are probably too far for their Prius' to reach.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/06/exit-polls-electorate-slightly-more-republican-than-2008/

[derwill]

Oh, Barbara, me too!

[PD]

Now FOX is giving us the all-important tweets/minute stats.

[Momto2]

I refuse to turn on the TV - I am just online until I turn on MSNBC to watch the melt-down..... Have chili and cornbread for dinner but am too nervous to eat :)

"Courage, is fear that has said its prayers." Dorothy Bernard)

[MarkO]

"The initial Martini is still 70 minutes away."

One might warm up with a fine merlot.

[PD]

Okay, Brit's on. I'll unmute for a bit.

[Extraneus]

Wouldn't that be Priuses? Frau?

[Clarice]

I have that thermomix which helps now that I am getting old and could use "an assistant chef" like that but here's another way to make it without that machine:
http://www.britishlarder.co.uk/chocolate-salami/#axzz2BUQrqZ00

[Clarice]

Dr J, I'm sure there will be leftovers for you to take on the plane with you.

[PD]

Over to Juan. Muted again.

[MarkO]

Why, dear Lord, must I hear Juan Williams?

[caro]

Juan calls it the "Kennedy seat". Yikes.

[DrJ]

Clarice,

That's kind! Dunno if I can get down your way though.

[MarkO]

I'm a veg, Danny.

[Sara]

I'm a nervous wreck!

Barbara: As I was eating a sandwich earlier, my d-i-l asked me why my hands were shaking. I wasn't aware they were, but as I looked down, I was shaking. I've had the jitters for two days now with steel bands around my chest making a deep breath nearly impossible.

[Clarice]

Too bad, Dr J..2016 then..

[Janet]

They appear to be polling in Dem districts. Those GOP areas are probably too far for their Prius' to reach.

Hah! Is it 60 miles for the electric car? So anyplace 61+ miles out is "no man's land" for the MFM!

[hit and run]

VIRGINIA POLLS CLOSED: too close to call

[PD]

FOX calls IN, KY for Mitt.

[Jim Miller]

FWIW, I ignored the leaked exit polls in 2004. And am ignoring them this year. (As I recall, one problem with them in 2004 was that the first leaks were partial results. Since Democrats and Republicans vote, on the average, at different times, those results didn't mean much.)

(The horse race stuff is dubious, always, but some of the issues numbers may be of interest.)

hit - Thanks. I've been doing so many posts at my own site, and SP that I haven't had time to do much more than lurk, here.

[matt]

Stay calm and carry on.

[PD]

FOX calls VT for Bronco Bama.

[Sara]

Polls closed:

Indiana called Romney
Kentucky called Romney
Vermont projected Obama

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

Here come the 1st results. VA completely tied. No one leading. MItt takes Kentucky, Indiana, and ahead in GA and SC.

Obama will win VT. (shocking)

it's 19-3 in electoral votes.

(That pissed me off too Caro)

[Marcia in Phoenix]

I wish there were an All Michael Barone All the Time Channel.

What are the best election results websites to go to? Rick, Gmax, Porch, et al.

Lowry has some fascinating nuggets:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332771/data-romney-campaign-looking-rich-lowry

[Strawman Cometh]

Congrats Vermont, 1st in Blue Idiocy

[Soylent Red]

I'll probably need bail in the morning and representation thereafter.

I have always found the "prudence" part of "jurisprudence" to be overrated.

OT, I have identified 17.5 acres of land IVO Marshall, TX that I am planning on purchasing to begin construction of my compound, Castle Soylent.

[Porchlight]

More seriously haven't more finalized exit polls been more accurate than what we're dealing with here; very preliminary ones?

Early exits are carp. Republicans vote after work, plus they're polls and subject to all the problems of polling. Full exit polls aren't as bad, if they're doing them systematically across all states - which guess what, many firms aren't doing this year.

Been out of pocket for 3 hours. How is it looking? Hearing turnout is up big all over the place in GOP areas, down in Dem areas. What else have I missed?

[centralcal]

I fell behind a bit, too. Just prepped a big fat artichoke to steam. Figure if I end up gritting my teeth tonight, I can enjoy doing it leaf by leaf, tastily.

[Porchlight]

What are the best election results websites to go to? Rick, Gmax, Porch, et al.

Park yourself at battlegroundwatch.com and keep that tab open all night. It's not specifically election results but you'll get tons of info. Keith Backer runs the site and I swear he is the new Jay Cost, maybe better in terms of constant posting and updates.

[MarkO]

Virgil Good? I hear banjos.

[Jane - Mock the Media!]

Nothing Porch. Hope you were having fun.

[Ranger]

Althouse liveblogging:

5:50: I'm watching CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News, and hanging out at MSNBC for the last few minutes, I get the feeling they think the GOP will do well. Why? They're going at the topic of the way the GOP isn't likely to take the majority in the Senate. I'm just getting the feeling that they are moving into that place of refuge.

(For those who don't go to Althouse.)

[DrJ]

Clarice, I'll see how it goes. Friday morning might work. It would be good to see you!

[hit and run]

That's Virgil Goode.

[Elliott]

Wouldn't that be Priuses?

Priora, I believe.

[Porchlight]

"Courage, is fear that has said its prayers." Dorothy Bernard)

I love that, Momto2! Who is Dorothy Bernard?

[hit and run]

Hola, Elliott.

¿Qué tal?

[Extraneus]

Not Prii?

I'll never get this down.

[Jim Ryan]

Congrats, Soylent! Er, when SHTF, I wonder whether you'll need cheap indentured servants down yonder.

[Laura White]

Gin and diet tonic. I ran out of gin a year ago and thought I could get by on red wine for a week or so until I got a toe cramp so strong that I dislocated the toe itself! The doctor told me to get right back on that diet tonic regimen, and that adding the gin wouldn't hurt.
When it's time to be jubilant (I can feel it coming), I am ready to be as jubilant as a lottery winner, Balboa sighting the Pacific, Fred and George as they leave Hogwarts...

[hit and run]

I'm very interested. When the NC polls close at 7:30 . . . how long until the state is called for Romney?

I know that OH is the big news at 7:30.

I also know that even if Romney does ultimately win the state by near double digits, they may not call it right away.

But I can hope.

[Soylent Red]

Wouldn't that be Priuses?

Priora, I believe.

Priapsis. Because everyone who drives one is a hard on.

[PD]

Wow, I looked up from the laptop and saw FOX calling OH for Bronco Bama. !!!

Then I noticed they were showing the 2008 results. Maybe I should keep the sound on after all.

[peter]

Who here besides Elliott is able to use "matinal hour" in a sentence?

LOL.

[hit and run]

That is sooooo much better than diet gin and tonic, Laura.

[centralcal]

snort! So glad you returned for tonight, Soylent.

[Threadkiller]

The votes are counted, and they are looking good!

Turns out my daughters' elementary school was running a mock election today. Out of 370 kids 285 went to Romney and 85 to Obama.

I asked my girls if the teachers or other students had influenced their votes and they said no. I then asked how they made their decisions.

My 8 year old explained: "I voted against the First Lady because she outlawed croutons in our school lunches last year."

The 10 year old added:" Yeah, and she always interrupts our shows on tv."

Single issue zealots, just like their daddy.

I am so proud!

[Jim Ryan]

Lowry: In Democratic stronghold Charlottesville at 1 p.m., turnout was 36 percent of registered voters. Obama got 80 percent of the vote there in 2008.

Ha!