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November 01, 2012

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Captain Hate

So we're gonna have open placeholder threads until the power gets on?

Ok I'll try to stimulate discussion with this: The local Fox station had a quiz on their morning show where they posed the question of how many times has a presidential candidate gotten at least 60 percent of the total. I knew the number was small and it was four, the most recent being when Nixon smoked McGovern. That shows to me how polarized we've always been as a country.

centralcal

Very thoughtful of TM to give us multiple threads. Hope he and his family are not going through too rough a time.

Interesting stat, Captain.

NK

So TomM-- what is your status? power? internet? trees down? are you huddled in the Starbucks blogging with their WiFi?

NK

CaptH-- who were the other 3? FDR had to be one, no?

Jim Ryan

Can't make this up. The Dem challenging Robert Hurt (VA-5) has bellyached a lot about Hurt's being inclined to allow uranium mining in VA. The Dem is against it on account of the pollution, you see. Come to find out, two of the Dem's big donors are wealthy uranium minors in Maryland. Anyone make heads or tails out of that? The donors want Douglass to stop VA competition or want him to have a "change of heart" after a win? The conventional wisdom down here is that Hurt has the election walking away, but there isn't any polling to speak of.

Just watching Clint Eastwood's Letters from Iwo Jima (Japanese, subtitles). Pretty good look under the hood at Japan's WWII insanity.

Jim Ryan

**miners**

NK

"Letters From Iwo Jima" -- a very difficult read and a brilliant movie, but impossible to watch.

Captain Hate

Am I the only person with google skeels?

Warren Harding (which is kind of shocking considering how much he gets badmouthed by historians), FDR in 1936 and LBJ.

GMAX

Geraghty tells you what I have suspected but did not do the exhaustive review of the polls to prove it:

"...none of the national polls are presuming 2008-level turnout for Democrats (at least without throwing in Democrat-leaning independents), while a large chunk of the state-level ones are. In this light, it’s not all that surprising that Romney’s showing a lead in most national polls while trailing in a bunch of the key swing states."

Logs for the roaring fire.

GMAX

Capn

Its been true so much that I have heard it said more than once over the years, What do they call 55% of the vote in the USA? Landslide.

hit and run

Dang. Didn't see this thread before posting my NC early vote update on the last one.

So, Halloween last night. Every year we set up a fire pit, a table and run an extension cord for a lamp at the end of the driveway. This was my year to man the fire while mrs hit and run walked with the kids.

My yard sign is right by the end of the driveway (in 2008 it was in the middle of the yard, and you couldn't really see it in the dark), so apart from the overwhelming majority of people who commented on the fire, got a few comments on the sign and the election. Mostly from parents, but some from the kids as well. No real stat to make out of it, but fun.

I did ask a few kids who their parents were voting for, and said if it was Obama they couldn't have any candy. Ok, I only did that with kids whose parents I know are voting for Romney.

OldTimer

I am in a quandary here. Is this simply dangerous ideological stupidity or a concerted effort to bring radical Islam to power throughout the Middle East? We've been watching this stunning disaster unfold for four years - why has this been allowed to happen?

Fast & Furious in Libya - LUN

GMAX

Karl Rove lays down a marker, note how he refutes stupid prog talking points about AHIA with cleared eyed analysis backed up by data.

Here:

Democrats explain away those numbers by saying that they are turning out new young Ohio voters. But I asked Kelly Nallen, the America Crossroads data maven, about this. She points out that there are 12,612 GOP "millennials" (voters aged 18-29) who've voted early compared with 9,501 Democratic millennials.

Are Democrats bringing out episodic voters who might not otherwise turn out? Not according to Ms. Nallen. She says that about 90% of each party's early voters so far had also voted in three of the past four Ohio elections. Democrats also suggest they are bringing Obama-leaning independents to polls. But since Mr. Romney has led among independents in nine of the 13 Ohio polls conducted since the first debate, the likelihood is that the GOP is doing as good a job in turning out their independent supporters as Democrats are in turning out theirs.

Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.

In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side's closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president.

Captain Hate

GMAX, I read at AoS that some PBS nitwit was getting the vapors over how "polarized" the country had become. Leaving aside that this is a good marker that his side is about to get smoked, he must get his "history" from those maudlin sociology stories that Ken Burns pawns off as historical because the raw statistics illustrate a different reality.

Jim Ryan

NK, yeah, it's tough going.

GMAX

his side is about to get smoked


Pretty good summation I would venture.

NK

Harding isn't a surprise if you think about it. The majority detested Wilson's progressivism and internationalism. Progressivism brought Palmer Raids and Prohibition, Internationalism led to massive US casualties in WWI in order to save British and french colonies and spheres of influence. 'Return to Normalcy' was a strong Harding theme to trounce the Dems. Hopefully we get a repeat of that Normalcy in 2012 (no 60% though)

OldTimer

There's a fire & brimstone reckoning starting next Wednesday. Just how badly can the Obama rodents screw things up during their forced departure from the WH and DC?

Maybe the threat of Benghazi and Green corruption hanging over their heads will temper their more odious tendencies.

Sue

And never ever tell a Clinton supporter that he never broke 50% and the GWB garnered more votes in both elections than Clinton in his 2. They will have the vapors.

Jim Ryan

"Too polarized" is Dem-speak for "there are too many conservatives." But in fact, the only thing that can save this country is increased polarization. The muddle need to move to conservatism and stay there, leaving a 65-35 conservative-left polarity. Otherwise, the left will keep dragging them over to the pro-fiscal doom side.

MarkO

Polarized? When the nasty little man began his first "bi-partisan" discussion by dismissing opposing arguments with a firm, "I won," what could go wrong?

pagar

" why has this been allowed to happen?"

Because the US elected Obama. The Obama regime has promoted it at every opportunity, IMO. Even more dangerous IMO, is the aid they have received from the Obama regime in infiltrating every aspect of US government.

http://www.minnpost.com/glean/2012/10/justice-department-will-investigate-citys-no-mosque

PD

Clint Eastwood

Will be on Hannity tonight, by the way.

OldTimer

Exactly, Jim Ryan. And we can start with a fair tax system that manifests more people aboard the same sturdy ship.

The USS America.

PD

Even more dangerous IMO, is the aid they have received from the Obama regime in infiltrating every aspect of US government.

Just what you'd expect from a man who claims to be a Christian. Right?

Naturally, our crack Professional Journalists seem not to have thought to ask him why, if he's a Christian, he's so cool toward Christians, Christian holidays, etc., and so warm toward anything Muslim. Like, "are you engaging in taqiyya?"

GMAX

Ramirez nails it this AM. I have never spent the time to figure out how to post cartoon but go find this one, you will be glad you spent the time to do so

Captain Hate

And never ever tell a Clinton supporter that he never broke 50%

I tell them that all the time because it's one of my favorite statistics about what a political genius Slick is. He couldn't even muster 50% against Bob Dole, a decent man but a horrible bargain basement presidential candidate.

jimmyk

That shows to me how polarized we've always been as a country.

Not sure how you mean this, but it could easily be the opposite: That Ds and Rs generally nominate candidates that are compelling enough to get at least 40% of the votes. I can't infer "polarized" from that.

Rick Ballard

Jim Ryan,

Hurt is in exactly the same position as just about every other GOP Congresscritter in every "swing" state. Perfectly safe. The puzzle of how the 13 out of 16 GOP Congresscritters in Ohio will ever be able to retain their seats with state polls projecting a D+8 electorate appears insoluble to me. Surely, four or five of the thirteen should be in considerable danger yet only one is even rated a toss up.

Doesn't the GOP read Nate Silver and realize the terrible problem facing all their incumbents?

PD

But in fact, the only thing that can save this country is increased polarization.

Yeah. I'm concerned about Mitt's recent comments about bipartisonship, reaching across the aisle, etc. (Or maybe he's said this all along and I'm just now noticing.)

I don't want the Democrats compromised with; that never works. I want them defeated.

Jim Ryan

Ha! The returns will make for interesting reading next Wednesday morning, Rick.

Dublindave

Now that Christie has demonstrated and talked at length about the strength of Barrack Obama's leadership, I feel we Democrats should give him a post in the next Obama administration.

How bout Secretary of doughnuts?

Or even Pizza Tzar?

We owe this tub of lard, he just got Obama re-elected(although a cynical person would say that Christie played this perfectly and set up his shot for 2016).

jimmyk

PD, yes, he has said that all along, about how he was able to work with a mostly Dem state legislature. I'd like to think that's garden variety campaign blather, plus a dig at Barry for passing Obamacare without any R buy-in. But I'm not under any illusions that Romney is going to be the next Reagan, just a vast improvement over the JEF.

pagar

"I don't want the Democrats compromised with; that never works. I want them defeated."

Post of the day. The only thing I would add is:

"I want them defeated" on every issue.

BB Key

Jim Ryan, Is Robert Hurt related to Charles Hurt of the Washington Times ?

Chubby

Yeah. I'm concerned about Mitt's recent comments about bipartisonship, reaching across the aisle, etc. (Or maybe he's said this all along and I'm just now noticing.)

One of his main talking points, and the one that I'd argue captured the independent vote, is how he worked with the other side as governor.

hrtshpdbox

But I'm not under any illusions that Romney is going to be the next Reagan, just a vast improvement over the JEF.
Reagan compromised plenty, without sacrificing his greater goals. He lobbied the public directly, building up a groundswell of support for his programs, then used that advantage when bargaining with Tip O'Neill. In that context "compromise" isn't a dirty word; that's what we need to hope for in a Romney administration.

NK

According to Gus' LIBTARDS, JEF is relying on Chris Christie's to be re-elected. Ha...ha...HaHa...HA..HAH..HAHAH-HAH!

Captain Hate

Not sure how you mean this, but it could easily be the opposite: That Ds and Rs generally nominate candidates that are compelling enough to get at least 40% of the votes. I can't infer "polarized" from that.

I initially felt the same way except there have been some pretty clear choices in the past despite all the blah blah that gets spouted about capturing "the middle". That people identify so much with parties means polarized to me. Believe me, if the Repubs weren't at least partially conservative, I'd drop them so fast there'd be a sonic boom. In fact one of the most pleasant surprises of the campaign is how well Romney articulates conservative principles. Until the last election I stayed registered as a democrat, mainly because of the impact of voting in the primaries around here, but gave up on the chance of them giving a voice to any conservatives in the ranks. I think there are others like me but not a significant percentage. Maybe I'm wrong but that says polarized to me.

Jim Ryan

Don't think so, Chubby.

Captain Hate

Reagan compromised because he was always dealing with a donk House. Plus spending continued to rise under Reagan. We don't have that luxury after the JEF.

Bobby B
Bobby B

OOPS R 49% O 47% (NOT 48%)

hrtshpdbox

Reagan compromised because he was always dealing with a donk House.
Romney will have a donk Senate to deal with, unfortunately.

Danube of Thought on IPad

Minus 11 at Raz today.

Trails Romney by 2.

NK

Polarization? Personally I'd be very happy with a USA Liberal Party and Conservative Party (Plus the outlier OWS/Green/LaRouche types). That polarity produces clarity. Since 1980 Reagan the country has been majority center-RIGHT. Slick Willy bamboozled voters with his bogus 'New Dem/Third Way" rhetoric. JEF/Nancy/Harry pulled the Dems Left--way Left-- 2009-2010 and the Tea Party pulled the Repubs Right-- thereby restoring polarity. A polarity of a Conservative Party and a Liberal Party is a big winner for conservatives for years to come. JEF has ruined the 'progressive' brand in national politics for decades.

Threadkiller
WEST TRENTON — Federal emergency management authorities are sending 500,000 gallons of diesel fuel to New Jersey as well as 100 power generators to ensure hospitals, drinking water systems and waste water treatment systems can stay online.

Gov. Chris Christie said at a media briefing this evening that the fuel and equipment would arrive within the next 24 hours and would be used for basic government services. He said the help was provided after his discussions today with President Obama.

Diesel!?! I demand to know why obsolete energy sources are used in an emergency!

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/10/fema_sending_500000_gallons_of.html

Sue

There's that 47% again. I would imagine that is why Obama quit using the 47% tape against Romney. ::grin::

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Harding isn't a surprise if you think about it. The majority detested Wilson's progressivism and internationalism. Progressivism brought Palmer Raids and Prohibition, Internationalism led to massive US casualties in WWI in order to save British and french colonies and spheres of influence. 'Return to Normalcy' was a strong Harding theme to trounce the Dems. Hopefully we get a repeat of that Normalcy in 2012 (no 60% though)

Posted by: NK | November 01, 2012 at 09:29-- AM

At least as important was that the US economy entered a post WW1 depression essentially as steep as the one to follow twelve years later. Harding slashed spending and taxes and within 18 months it was over and the twenties began to roar.
Teapot Dome forever sullied the reputation of a guy who made Hoover and FDR look like the fools they were for doing everything wrong they possibly could have in the thirties.

Sue

I'm pretty sure we are going to be disappointed by Romney more than once if he wins on Tuesday. But if he wins, like Bush, I will forever hold him dear to my heart for ridding us of Obama. Go Mitt!!!! We are almost there.

SWarren

Poll this morning here in MICHIGAN has Romney at -3. Says well within MOE.

Captain Hate

Romney will have a donk Senate to deal with, unfortunately.

That's not a fact yet and I wish all the nervous nellies around here would quit acting like it is.

Sue

That didn't come out quite right. Bush disappointed me on several occasions, but I will forever hold him dear to my heart because of his steady leadership during the WoT and how he honored the office he held and the country he served. I will have the same affection for Romney, maybe for other reasons, but for sure for ridding us of Obama.

GMAX

My guess on Michigan is that if Oakland County is really + 3 Romney, we just need to get Macomb County to even and the hollowed out nature of Detroit and therefore Wayne Co plus the loss of Kwayme's fraud machine will mean a very very close election. If the UP goes Red, it might be the surprise of the evening. But it not likely to be the only one...

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Yeah. I'm concerned about Mitt's recent comments about bipartisonship, reaching across the aisle, etc. (Or maybe he's said this all along and I'm just now noticing.)

I don't want the Democrats compromised with; that never works. I want them defeated.

Posted by: PD | November 01, 2012 at 09:46 AM--

Sue has given my inner Eeyore voice; as delighted as I've been with Romney's campaign I am fully prepared to be just as disappointed in his governance.
Let's hope he disappoints our anticipated disappointment.

Danube of Thought on IPad

AP:

"HOBOKEN, N.J. (AP) — Officials in the city of Hoboken, N.J., are defending their response to severe flooding from superstorm Sandy.
Public Safety director Jon Tooke says at least 25 percent of the city on the Hudson River across from Manhattan remains under water. He estimates at least 20,000 people are stranded and says most are being encouraged to shelter in place until floodwaters recede.

"Tempers flared Wednesday morning outside City Hall as some residents complained the city was slow to get food and other supplies out to the stranded."

Chubby

((
((Don't think so, Chubby.))

what are your reasons, Jim?

I think that after the second debate, which as I recall got a negative reaction of disgust from independents about both candidates, that it was too pugnacious. Romney toned down considerably in the third. I saw that change in him as targeted directly to the independent vote. In that debate he said he agreed with Obama several times.
After the third debate, I think the indpependents saw Obama as the candidate who wouldn't be able to work with the other party.

and like it or not, it is the independents who voted en masse for Obama last time, and who are going to break for Romney this time, who are going to give Romney his victory.

hrtshpdbox

... I wish all the nervous nellies around here would quit ...
You can wish that, it's fine to wish for things.

Captain Hate

I'm pretty sure we are going to be disappointed by Romney more than once if he wins on Tuesday

Like GWB did time after time? I know that there won't be a perfect President unless everybody writes me in. Lacking that, I'm sure I can live with Mitt for four years.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--We owe this tub of lard, he just got Obama re-elected--

Wish I had started counting how many times WeeDavey has told us Barry just got reelected.
Pretty sure if I had a time for every one I'd be able to afford putting the poor sap through rehab.

Sue

Capt'n,

I can live with Mitt (just don't tell Ann). ::grin::

Jack is Back

Romney in Roanoke: Forward more like Forewarned:)

Threadkiller

Danube, did you see my post about post 1994 earthquake California? An unleashed private sector would blaze a trail through this rebuild.

NK

Ig-- Harding absolutely followed the right course in resepone to the economic depression after WWI. And his small government policies were a perfect table setter for skinflint Cal Coolidge to carry on the economic prosperity USA industrialization/consumerism was providing. But Harding had to be elected first, and he won on the voters' revulsion to Wilson's 'progressivism.'

I'm reminded of Rocco's and TSK9's research.

Well, hello Bobby B. Are you the same Bobby B who exposed Mann's judge in the early hours? If so, thanks a bunch.
===========

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Like GWB did time after time? I know that there won't be a perfect President unless everybody writes me in......
Posted by: Captain Hate | November 01, 2012 at 10:20 AM--

Yeah, but just once I'd like the imperfection to be because he wanted to cut too deep and make the government too small and unreasonably tell the Dems to eff off; the Bizzaro Barry.

Dublindave

Maybe Christie will think about switching parties.

hit and run

Ig:
Wish I had started counting how many times WeeDavey has told us Barry just got reelected.

Have you assumed that I haven't?

Danube of Thought on IPad

No I didn't, TK--where is it?

Captain Hate

People underestimate how divided the country was by WW1. Drive through south central Pennsylvania and notice all the statues of doughboys in the small town squares put up in memory of sending them off to fight in a European war. That was a big deal and the donks paid the price in 1920.

Chubby

approximately half the nation believes one thing and the other half believes the exact opposite. if that's not polarization, what is? maybe the term should be bipolarization

Old Lurker

Me, I am way too superstitious to start worrying about how Romney will govern. About half the population is going to be shocked Wednesday and I just hope like hell it is not us.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Have you assumed that I haven't?--

No, actually I considered asking the oracle before posting.

PD

Let's hope he disappoints our anticipated disappointment.

Yes. I'm hopeful. And as Sue said, getting rid of Obama will get him my undying gratitude.

Danube of Thought on IPad

I don't expect much from Mitt. It's enough for me that Obama be gone.

Neither Mitt nor anyone else can do what needs to be done, because the American people won't tolerate it.

Sixteen-trillion-dollar debts simply do not get paid. And the rest follows as night follows day.

Jim Ryan

Oh, Chubby, I just meant I hadn't heard of any such relation so I doubt it. But could be.

BB Key

Jim Ryan, just found it on Wikipedia Robert and Charles Hurt are brothers both attended Hampden Sydney .

Chubby

((He lobbied the public directly, building up a groundswell of support for his programs...))

Obama tried that too, he seemed to be always on the road selling this or that, like "pass this bill". But he didn't built up any groundwells of support that I can recall. That Reagan succeeded where Obama failed tells a lot about the mindset of the general electorate

laff trac

"We owe this tub of lard, he just got Obama re-elected"

deadbeatdave = comedy gold!

hrtshpdbox

That Reagan succeeded where Obama failed tells a lot about the mindset of the general electorate
Not the persuasiveness of the argument, or of the person delivering it?

Jim Ryan

Chubby, I'm seeing that his brother is Wash bureau chief for NY Post. Huh. Not the same Charles? Fogged.

MarkO on iPad

Can we just elect Romney before we complain about him?

jimmyk

Maybe Reagan wasn't the best example, but my view of his "compromises" is that he was so persuasive that he got huge public support, so enough Dems went along with his agenda for their own self-preservation. I don't think he went in saying "let's meet in the middle." IIRC, his "compromise" on the Kemp-Roth tax cuts was 10%-10%-5% over three years, versus the original 10-10-10.

Jim Ryan

MarkO in for the early thread winner!

Chubby

((Romney will have a donk Senate to deal with, unfortunately.))

Mark Levin was ragging on Reince Preibus (sp?) last night for hoarding cash instead of sharing it with some races where it could matter

Sue

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Obama needs a D+5 turnout this year to win the popular vote. Was D+7 in 08, even in 04&2010, D+3 in 2000. If GOP GOTV is good, Romney wins.

Porchlight

That's not a fact yet and I wish all the nervous nellies around here would quit acting like it is.

Ditto.

How one can not accept state polling that shows Romney behind, but accept wholeheartedly the state polling (in some cases the same polls) showing Ds will retain the Senate, is beyond me.

rse

I am back and this should help clarify what is at stake next Tuesday and going on unappreciated all over the world.

http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/political-primer-101-what-is-the-marxist-theory-of-the-mind-and-why-does-it-matter-in-2012/

I had tried to stay away from the M word but it is in fact time to use it in this context. And it really hammers the connection to State Crony Capitalism.

I know bipartisanship plays well to capturing the important independent vote. I hope my research will make enough people appreciate why bipartisanship on education is actually a dangerous trap. And that simply deferring to state and local decisions with federal funding means the Credentialled Idealogues have unfettered power.

And the states are really fond of Crony Capitalism.

Porchlight

Obama needs a D+5 turnout this year to win the popular vote.Was D+7 in 08, even in 04&2010, D+3 in 2000. If GOP GOTV is good, Romney wins.

Not seeing this - if Romney romps with indies and increases GOP turnout over McCain, Obama will need better than D+7 to make up the gap.

Agree that GOP GOTV needs to be good, of course.

Porchlight

Oops, never mind, I see where I'm wrong above. Obama doesn't need to match his 2008 margin of victory to win.

Captain Hate

Mark Levin was ragging on Reince Preibus (sp?) last night for hoarding cash instead of sharing it with some races where it could matter

Did RP call in or was Mark just talking about it. One thing I like about Priebus is how he makes himself available to Dennis Miller fairly often and articulates the party's position well. I liked Michael Steele ok as a person but whenever he was on Laura Ingraham he was talking more about himself than he was about the party imo.

PD

I am way too superstitious to start worrying about how Romney will govern.

Careful. It's bad luck to be superstitious.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Can we just elect Romney before we complain about him?

Posted by: MarkO on iPad | November 01, 2012 at 10:47 AM--

I wasn't complaining about him. I was anticipating complaining about him and anticipation is one of life's great joys.
Joy squasher or, since you're a lawyer, joy quasher.

Chubby

((skinflint Cal Coolidge))

George Will's latest LUN quotes him:

“It is a great advantage to a president, and a major source of safety to the country, for him to know he is not a great man.”

hrtshpdbox

IIRC, his "compromise" on the Kemp-Roth tax cuts was 10%-10%-5% over three years, versus the original 10-10-10.
As a barely related aside, I was thinking about the brouhaha the left tried to stir up when GOP primary candidates, and others, said they wouldn't accept small tax increases if linked to spending cuts. How could they be so unreasonable? Even fair-weather GOPer Jeb Bush criticized GOP intransigence on the tax-increase/spending-cut hypothetical. What I didn't hear from the Republicans (maybe I just missed it) was a defense based on exactly what happened to Reagan with his worst compromise of all, 1982's TEFRA, which included a 3-to-1 recipe of spending cuts to tax increases. The spending cuts, of course, wound up being ephemeral or non-existent, and Reagan rued the day he signed the bill. So of course anyone interested in fiscal restraint is wary of that type of "deal".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Equity_and_Fiscal_Responsibility_Act_of_1982

Chubby

Cap, I didn't listen to the third hour, so RP might have called in, but Levin ranted about the cash hoarding in the second hour. He is extremely concerned about the senate, without which he believes Romney will be able to do little.

Threadkiller

Danube, I can't find the original post. :-(

It was a reprint of the 1994 La Times, post earthquake, reporting that the private sector, with proper incentives, rebuilt the LA freeway system in under 80 days. Cal Trans predicted anywhere from 1 to 2 years.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

GHWB's reliance on the Dem's solemn pledge to cut spending if he would just betray his "no new taxes" pledge went a long way to costing him reelection.

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