Lest we re-forget, back in 2010 James Taranto offered a Bold Prediction about the fate of gay marriage if/when the Supreme Court took up the California case:
...[W]e are prepared to offer up a prediction: When the Supreme Court takes up Perry v. Schwarzenegger--perhaps under the name Brown v. Perry or Whitman v. Perry--the justices will rule 5-4, in a decision written by Justice Kennedy, that there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage.
This accepts the conventional assumption that the court's "liberal" and "conservative" wings will split predictably, 4-4. Yet while Kennedy cannot be pigeonholed in terms of "ideology," on this specific topic, he has been consistent in taking a very broad view of the rights of homosexuals. He not only voted with the majority but wrote the majority opinions in two crucial cases: Romer v. Evans (1996) and Lawrence v. Texas (2003).
The Scalia dissent in Lawrence is a classic vivisection of the liberal wing of the court and their on-again, off-again reliance on history, precedent and stare decisis.