Late last spring Roger Pielke had noted (in the context of a Chinese proposal) that carbon caps are all very well and good until they start to bite, at which point governments change course. For this, Krugman (#AlternativeRealityBased) lambasted him. Caps, taxes, whatever - people don't seem to want to pay today for mitigated climate change in fifty years. (Hence the urgency felt by Greens need to promote the notion that the future is now.)
AND JUST IN TIME! Maybe Australia is helping the world dodge a bullet; from the Climate Depot:
The sun has gone quiet…solar cycle 24 continues to rank as one of the weakest cycles more than a century
'If history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere - and where we all live.'
And how is solar activity implicated?
Finally, if history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere – and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”. In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.
For some, it's complicated; others with less appreciation for nuance have it all figured out.
And do let me add: even if it is true that the current solar cycle is providing a countervailing push to the effect of our carbon dioxide emissions, that solar cycle will eventually change. Based on the two cool periods mentioned above, a fifty year respite would be ample time to segue to new technology and transition to a much lower carbon footprint globally. Although he was speaking in a different context, noted socialist "Lefty" Gomez observed that "I'd rather be lucky than good."