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August 07, 2016

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daddy

(George) Will: Clinton obviously lied about the emails but voters already know that.

I recall transcribing George Wills comments 2 months back when he said that the presumption of innocence is what this country is based on and it's been taking quite a beating lately in regards to Hillary, and that "if she wound up not indicted by Comey and the FBI, then she could say, with some justification, that she was innocent."

Now, according to the Captain's synopsis, he apparently just said she's guilty as hell but since we all know it, no big deal?

I am so glad George Will is out there maintaining his lonely vigil of keeping the flame of Conservative Principles lit for all us stupid rubes in flyer country, so we can look to him for guidance when we come to our senses.

Old Lurker

7. US Television coverage ups their leftist messaging, ups the commercial counts, and decimates viewership by 36%.

henry

Trump didn't put the baby in the corner... But:

Hillary wanted the dog "the hell away from here"
Mitt put the dog on the car roof
Obama ate the dog

As for Brooks, did the baby have a proper pant crease? Or was is crying because it's pant was wrinkled?

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

At least half of Trump's problems stem from dumbasses who either don't have a sense of humor or pretend they don't so they can demonize him for some off the cuff crack.

And these are usually the same people who think Seth Rogan and Jonah Hill are hilarious.

DebinNC

Today's Clarice Piece - The Press and Pollsters Are Putting Too Much Cornstarch in the Cherry Pie

Frau Rutger Gefahrfeld

The Voters *know* the She-Devil lied and it's Old News? Since lying is all she ever does, it really is nothing new.

(Geez, my fingers are aching to go all-GUS and shout it out since it seems deafness is afoot in the land.)

Frau Rutger Gefahrfeld

Speaking of Geoge Will, Clarice easily hit it out of the park with her latest. Why isn't she on Sunday TV instead the clowns?

daddy

Olympics Day One scoreboard, including some early events:

1. Had to unlock the stadium with bolt cutters because they lost the key.

2. Australian team members robbed in Olympic village.

3. Russian diplomat shoots carjacker dead.

4. Kayaker capsized due to hitting a sofa in the water.

5. Moroccan (ROP) team member arrested for assaulting (and possibly raping) 2 chambermaids in Olympic village.

I will try to update this list daily. Feel free to add your own, as I cannot be on Twitter 24/7

Posted by: Miss Marple 2

Miss M,

We need to clarify that the gun used in item 3 above, belonged to the perp, The Rooski yanked it away from the bad guy before blowing his brains out. I don't want anyone thinking law abiding folks down there are walking around armed.

clarice

we could announce an all GUS day when we are particularly pissed at the press.

DebinNC

Re sense of humor, Reagan's classic response to a debate question about his age. Notice how heartily Mondale and the audience laugh along with him.

clarice

Thanks, Frau--but I think you have to wiggle around someone's office in a garter belt to get on TV and well---

Frau Rutger Gefahrfeld

Iggy, Trump's baby exchange was so well delivered I was reminded of the Gold Years of Sid Caesar, Phil Silvers and Jack Benny.

daddy

How to improve the Olympics:

Simply run the live feed from Japan.

No distractions, no BS human interest stories, no super annoying commercials or hosts, no tape delays, no nothing but live feeds of the competition without distraction.

daddy

I think you have to wiggle around someone's office in a garter belt to get on TV

I saw JimmyK on TV!

Feel free to elaborate, perfessor:)

Beasts of England

NBC coverage has one thing going for it: Mike Tirico.

Furyk just fired a record 58 on the PGA Tour.

Matt

Run almost any country's feed and it will be similar, except perhaps the Chinese and Rooshians. I learned that long ago.

The US media funds most of the Olympics and so needs to milk it dry. Most other countries pay a few shekels and let the US carry the burden. Maybe Trump can change this.

But watching Bob Costas, who now looks like the mother character from "Brazil" he's had so much work done and the rest of the diverse, multi-culti incompetent crew has led me to ignore most of it to find the joys of Roku.

USA Basketball visiting whorehouses; muggings in the Village; bodies and furniture floating in the venues; it is a bad movie.

Manufactured emotion and suspense just isn't on.

Beasts of England

Which show, daddy?

cheerleader

If it sounded "cruel" it must have been an edited video taken out of the context of the whole rally.

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

Wouldn't deafness be aear or maybe anear, instead of afoot?

Momto2

That couch in the water at the Olympics is just such a shocking story, isn't it? I remember when the Olympics came to Atlanta and we revamped so many things to make it look nice. Because the beach volleyball was on the south side they planted hundreds of trees on both sides of a local road. Many of the highway medians were planted with beautiful flowers. They were so intent on making every detail perfect...and in Rio they can't get a couch out of the water ? Give me a break! What an example of our two systems!

Jack is Back!

daddy,

The Russian vice-consult that nailed the perp is not a rooski but a Brazilian.

JimmyK was on some business show a few years back. CNBC or Fox, can't remember. The CLU was also on CNBC with Mr. Tea Party himself.

Janet

I listened to that rally & heard the exchange about the baby. It was nothing.
Trump was good natured about it & there were laughs.
What a big nothing.
It reminded me of how a minister would handle a baby screaming. Love the baby...now remember there is a cry room in the back.

The MFM are scum.

lyle

I was at Olympic Park in Atlanta just hours before the bombing. Was living in Columbia, SC at the time.

JM Hanes

Clarice:

I’m not sure it really qualifies as burying the lede, when the NYTimes’ headline reads, There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That’s Good News for Trump! By the time I got to the end of the article, it looked a lot more like a good news/bad news proposition to me. There’s this:

The larger number of white working-class voters implies that Democrats are far more dependent on winning white working-class voters, and therefore more vulnerable to a populist candidate like Mr. Trump.

But then there’s this:

There has long been a notion that Mr. Romney was hurt by “missing white voters,” those who voted in 2008 but skipped the 2012 presidential election. And the G.O.P.’s hope is that Mr. Trump could benefit with a surge of those Republican-leaning voters. But that view of 2012 is largely unsupported by the data.

The decline in white turnout in 2012 was particularly marked among registered Democrats, according to data from Catalist. Republican turnout dropped a bit as well, but it was less than the drop among Democrats across every age cohort. And among voters over age 60, Republican turnout increased.

Fortunately, Hillary Clinton seems willing to sacrifice that demographic. The question, answered by neither the NY Times or Conservative Treehouse, is whether they are congregated in the swing states she must win.

Thanks to Donald Trump, historic turnout trends are obsolete. Additionally, historic demographics and party affiliations are also obsolete

I hope so, because it’s going to take some really big gains to make up for the republican voters that he has lost. It’s not just the NeverTrumpers. One of my two bellweather Republicans is gone for sure, and the other seems likely to abstain. It’s just anecdotal, but that’s my demographic and it’s not looking good. Whether or not a seismic realignment is under way, it seems to me we’re still looking at the same toss-up states we’re always looking at.

 photo Toss-Ups-2016_zpsvltjlnfl.jpg

In 2012, Obama took all of them except North Carolina. I think we are definitely back in play this year. We are 21.4% African American (7th largest percentage, and 6th largest in actual numbers) 8.9% Hispanic, (slightly lower than the national average, but 11th in actual numbers). I don’t know whether or not those census stats reflect the fact that we are one of the top destination states for illegal aliens (not to mention the influx of hispanic seasonal workers who affect the zeitgeist), but that will surely factor into the Clinton/Obama camp’s campaign strategy.

I don’t think the Appalachian is going to be big enough to overcome McAuliffe’s cronified corruption in Virginia. Team Clinton sure isn’t running scared there. We always tell ourselves that maybe this time Pennsylvania really is in play. Wisconsin? I get the impression that the convention turned out to be a positive for Trump in Ohio, and Rob Portman seems to blasting through some of the previous conventional wisdom (so to speak!) about union loyalties, so I’m pretty upbeat about Ohio, unless Kasich screws it up.

I also think it’s dangerous to extrapolate too far from the increase in Republican primary voters, when even the guy postulating a coming Monster Vote for Trump noted that:

The lower 2012 participation was due to everyone except Mitt Romney basically gone after the Florida Primary vote (destroying Newt Gingrich).   Romney coasted to the convention.

Speaking of Florida, it’s a huge relief that Marco Rubio decided to do the right thing by endorsing Trump — and dumping both of his former mentors to do it. Florida is an absolute must-win for Trump, and Rubio looks like the absolutely indispensable friend to me. Having decided to run for re-election after all, assessing the pros and cons of actively stumping with/for Trump may prove to be a defining calculation — for both campaigns.

To my knowledge no one has really been able to quantify the enthusiasm gap, but let’s hope that big rally attendance can be turned in to boots on the ground getting out the vote. Otherwise, I tend to think it will be less about new votes for Trump, than about the apathy of potential Clinton voters. I tend to think that external events or major Hillary embarrassments will ultimately determine the results.

lyle

Hey, Cankles sez "she has a lot of black friends"! Probably why she carries around all that hot sauce in her purse, to share with all her homies.

cheerleader

Trump always informally interacts with people at his rallies, and the attendees have FUN.

Then the ignorami who've clearly never watched a rally, write, in stunted and stunning ignorance:

"[Trump] also cannot be contained because he lacks the inner equipment that makes decent behavior possible. So many of our daily social interactions depend on a basic capacity for empathy. But Trump displays an absence of this quality."

The above, now passing for intelligence in America, is a sign that America is in dire, dire, dire need of correction.

Free James D

we could announce an all GUS day when we are particularly pissed at the press.

I think that would be any day that ends in "y"

cheerleader

To date, I've not been expecting Nehlen to win. But my expectations that he might have improved somewhat.

Theo

JMH --

As I posted here a few weeks ago, along with a lot of spreadsheet data that was validated by Jeff Dobbs (I miss him a lot), the "missing white voters" of 2012 had virtually all voted for Obama in 2008. (The source you quote suggests that they were mostly registered Democrats.)

It is not impossible that a group of 5 million whites would (a) vote for Obama in 2008, (b) sit out the 2012 election and come back and vote heavily for Trump in 2016, but is this really all that likely?

I think that your overall analysis is sound. It is certainly possible that the polls are just worthless this year and and that the long rumored (and probably mythical) "lost tribes" of voters will suddenly show up and vote Trump, but losing candidates and their supporters have basically bashed the polls and counted on the heretofore unvoters to save the day for them since, well, a very long time. (I specifically recall Dole supporters making the very same arguments in the fall of 1996.)

There is still a ways to go. Rodham is still unappealing and the more Trump focuses on that (and promotes Republican unity) the better the chance that her turnout will be suppressed enough. I agree that suppressing her vote is the best shot for Trump.

anonamom

"Tom Cotton on the Iran ransom: 404 and Lurch have stonewalled Congress while acting like drug launderers. "


I tweeted to the idiot WaPo reporter who wrote a column basically asking "what's the big deal? Everybody knew 'almost all of this' in January."

Told the naif that the big deal is the CASH---and that he needs to watch The Wire if he still doesn't get it.

What does Insty call these syncophants? DNC employees w bylines?

I realized this morning that they are going to have to start WORKING if Trump gets elected--no more having the WH and DNC do their writing for them.)

anonamom

JMH, share this with your pure friends who can't bear the thought of voting for Trump.
clarice posted this this morning, and it's outstanding:

http://www.bookwormroom.com/2016/08/04/nevertrumpers-weve-seen-this-movie-before-and-it-doesnt-end-well/

Don’t be a #NeverTrumper. Don’t get so caught up in ideological purity that you forget that we’re fighting a real war of ideas with only one winner and one loser. Do not be Colonel Nicholson and focus so obsessively on your wonderfulness that you hand victory to the political enemy. This is war and we get once chance not to destroy America. Vote Trump, no matter how much you wish you didn’t have to.

And make no mistake: If Hillary wins, we are looking at an epic disaster. As Dennis Prager, Hugh Hewitt, and other committed, principled, highly intelligent conservatives have realized, the time for ideological purity is over. In an existential situation, with a binary choice between bad and dead, morality demands that you choose bad.


President Hillary Clinton will:
Turn the Supreme Court into an activist, hard-Left engine of permanent change;
Narrow the First Amendment to the point of meaninglessness, giving government the final say over who gets free speech (and you can see what this will look like by visiting any college or university in America except for Hillsdale); ? ND? DS?
Narrow the Second Amendment to the point of meaninglessness, giving government the absolute right to seize all privately held arms;
Grant full amnesty and voting rights to all the illegal aliens already in America;
Abandon any effort at controlling our Southern border;
Continue to turn the American military into a vast social justice and climate change experiment;
Continue to destroy the American economy by (a) funding crony-style climate change initiatives and (b) making it impossible for ordinary Americans to get affordable energy from clean coal, oil, and natural gas;
Raise taxes to pay for her war against the climate;
Deny the existence of Islamic fundamentalism, something exceptionally cruel, not only to non-Muslims killed by Islamists, but to those peaceful Muslims who need someone to partner with them to help bring about an Islamic reformation;
Cultivate her close ties with rich, radical Islamists, aided by Huma Abedin (scion of the Muslim Brotherhood) and by all of her other long-standing Islamic funders;
Turn her back on Israel, a nation she’s always approached with hostility, abandoning it to the Islamic/Arab savagery that surrounds it;
Destroy the last remnants of a free market in America by tightening her cronyist connection to Wall Street and her regulatory control over businesses and individuals;
Be exceptionally vulnerable to blackmail from all those nations that are sitting on her emails, both the 30,000 she destroyed, as well as the ones already in FBI hands; and
Continue to divide America by focusing on victim groups in order to retain those groups’ fealty to the Democrat party.

cheerleader

Trump's "decent behavior" is doing just fine, the decent behavior of liars who write lies and bs, not so much.

cheerleader

anonamom

I find it tiresome to hear the all-talk no- action congress critters complaining about Obama.

Beasts of England

Missing white voters: drink!!

anonamom

I'm getting yard signs for both places.
Time to do what I can.

It is war; she is evil, or at least a psychopath--she scored 11/13 in a quiz I took today thinking of her on whether your co-worker is psychopath.

The future of the country my children and (hopefully) grandchildren will live in depends an no more Ds.

Free James D

Anonamom @ 1:07

It's even simpler than that. Hilary's closest friend and confidantes are Huma Abdelin and Sid Blumenthal. Of the idea of those two having offices in the West Wing, and drawing up the shortlists for cabinet appointments, ambassadors, and Hundreds of other appointments (including SC justices) doesn't fill you with total dread and revulsion, there's no reaching you.

Threadkiller

If only Trump joked about selling the baby's arms and eyeballs...

Beasts of England

JM Hanes: Theo's 'analysis' is bullshit and I destroyed it when he tried that crap a while back. Neither he nor Jeff Dobbs are data analysts, and I mean no disrespect to Jeff; but Theo conducts his 'analytics' the same way the climate 'scientists' do: he arrives at his preconceived conclusion and then backfills with cherry-picked data to support his chosen result. Or, as we real-life data analysts call it: garbage.

Pagar a bacon, ham and sausage supporter

"Lacks the inner equipment that makes decent behavior possible."

IMO , that is every leftist with their pro abortion, pro illegal immigrants , etc, etc; it is simply impossible for them to behave decently.

maryrose

Ananomom
Excellent summation!

maryrose

Pagar:
So true!
Also describes Hillary

anonamom

Here's the quiz--see what you get:

http://www.businessinsider.com/more-signs-you-are-working-with-a-psychopath-2016-7?op=0#


Speaking of joking--that is what is EXACTLY wrong w these leftists---they have absolutely ZERO sense of humor. If she gets elected, it will be the end of comedy. If you watch the whole Trump-baby interchange, it's hilarious. First he goes on that it is OK to have a baby crying, we all love babies, don't leave, blah, blah, blah---then, later, when the baby really starts acting up
(Come ON!! What were you thinking bring your baby to a rally????)
He states the truth---that we ALL hate crying babies at church, at weddings, at graduations--get them out!

Think about it--
City Slickers, one of THE funniest movies ever made---
NO WAY could they do that again.

cheerleader

pagar,

I don't think I've ever read nine more indecent words that those you quoted.

Words that are sick, diseased, false, disgusting, and putrid.

Threadkiller

As I posted here a few weeks ago, along with a lot of spreadsheet data that was validated by Jeff Dobbs

Is it this one?

http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2016/06/there-is-surely-some-news-out-there.html

IIRC, the spreadsheet was deleted in defeat.

cheerleader

pagar,

you're right, those nine words, properly applied, are truthful.

anonamom

James D, it's time for you to man up and correct your ignorant friends and relatives.

You can do it! They know you to be a reasonable person. You don't have to yell---just give them the facts.

You're Italian, right??? What are they going to do--not feed you??? Blood is way thicker than the mindless continued support that your relatives are doing. (My peeps voted D a long time past when we should have too.)

She's reprehensible.

Free James D

Anonam, did you notice the photo that went along with the "unrealistic goals" point at your link?

A handwritten list saying:

"Become president of the US"
"Make a billion dollars"

Sounds a lot like Hillary ( and she fit every other item, too, unsurprisingly)

clarice

JMH I can't really go thru all of CT's argument and back and forth to the NYT article--but this at the end seems what they are eliding:"Whether Mr. Trump can suppress his losses among well-educated voters and Latinos will be decided by a lot more than demographics. Usually, the so-called fundamentals — including the current president’s approval rating and the pace of economic growth — play a big role in determining whether voters will support the incumbent’s party. This year, there are other big questions: whether Mr. Trump’s penchant to offend goes too far, and whether Mrs. Clinton has an advantage with women and faces a penalty among men (and which is bigger).

So far, the polls suggest he will lose too much ground among well-educated and nonwhite voters to win. But the diversity of the country in itself does not rule out a victory for Mr. Trump."

I read this to say--yes, we are wrong on the demographics but it still won't matter. I think it will.

I think the size and nature of the Hispanic vote is grossly exaggerated--Rick Ballard had many posts on the size issue which I found compelling. (There's every reason for pols to inflate that figure and ignore self-deportations) and I think that has led the Dems to support an Open Border policy which will cost them more votes than they gained. The voting pool is actually far less diverse that we'd been led to believe.In other words--they fooled themselves in an unpopular policy.

Miss Marple 2

anonamom,

While I agree that Hillary shows signs of psychopathic behavior, that quiz is designed to subtly make you question Trump.

Under unrealistic goals they show a post-it note saying "Become President of the USA. Make a hillion dollars."

Also the use of the word "bully" a lot.

Beasts of England

Leftists are zealots, anonamom. Zealots have no sense of humor because they're emotionally tied to their causes, regardless of merit. That's why mockery and humiliation are so effective against these losers, and should be deployed at every opportunity.

anonamom

maryrose, I did NOT write that--it's from the link--which is EXCELLENT.
Bookworm wrote it.

I definitely would have written it, if I were much more informed and a better writer, because it sums up my feelings on this vital subject perfectly.

I've never even watched that movie. But I shall, even though I do know how it ends.

Frau Rutger Gefahrfeld

Matt, you forget that even in her role as Mrs. Lowry, Bob C. would love to look like Katherine Helmond.

Texas Liberty Gal

Clarice - let me add my huzzah for your article today. My mood is much improved!!!

anonamom

MM, I realized he may not do much better. ;-)
(Though that source supports him, IIRC)

JM Hanes

Good grief! I just read the whole David Brooks column and Trump has apparently just driven him off the rails!

As one trained psychiatrist said to me, compare Donald Trump’s speaking patterns to a Robin Williams monologue, but with insults instead of jokes.
Yeah, that sounds just like a trained psychiatrist's professional assessment.

Lo, the irony, in lectures on empathy from the guy who has explicitly admitted, in multiple columns, that he has no idea what most of America is thinking and feeling. Last April, he promised to go out into the pain and report back, but it's pretty obvious that it's still not our pain he's been feeling. He's talking to his psychiatrist pal about the wrong guy.

Threadkiller

Wait til Brooks' friend analyzes hrtshpdbox.

buccaneer morgan

I was thinking this resembles that cracked fairy tale princess bride.

clarice

Here is the other post, Sundance referred to:https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/29/guest-post-the-2016-election-stats-the-media-and-establishment-republicans-prefer-to-ignore/

anonamom

No disrespect to anyone's family members, friends, or trusted psychiatrist---but talk about (as a group) a bunch of crazy, clueless bleeding hearts, and that would be over 50 % of the people who go in to psychiatry.

God bless all the ones who aren't, and toil with the problems of the patients they care for---but as a group---

Well, you'll notice not a one of them posts here.

Not to mention that is TOTALLY unethical and unprofessional for any psychiatrist to comment on Trump.

Jack is Back!

Anyone seen this little video about hacking the Diebold voting machines?

Have no idea if it is a setup or if the memory card can indeed be hacked.

If you know this is a hack itself, please let me know since this is from an email I received from impressionable friends.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t75xvZ3osFg&feature=youtu.be

clarice

JMH--Love this "he's talking to his psychiatrist about the wrong guy"

Frau Rutger Gefahrfeld

JHM - a political black swan has arrived on the scene. Nobody expected this. Poor Brooksie.

And Benjamin Wittes wrote about "his friend" the career DoJ lawyer who fears Trump 14 on a scale of 10. God forbid extraterrestrials land.

caro

Love your comments, JMH.

And Clarice, you did lift my spirits today. Thanks!

And from the last thread,

Hey, daddy, you are messin' with lyrics by the former husband of my step sister!

It is an amazing list of songs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Songs_with_lyrics_by_Norman_Gimbel

Frau Rutger Gefahrfeld

I should add, the black swan announced that he is no politician. That's the beauty of it, and it scares the carp out of the elites.

Captain Hate

And these are usually the same people who think Seth Rogan and Jonah Hill are hilarious.

People really think that? I guess Common Core is pretty far along.

RattlerGator

Even if it's my team, it's kind of hard to root for sometimes.
Posted by: Free James D | August 07, 2016 at 11:54 AM

On this we agree. I'd *much* prefer we sent our NCAA championship team with a few other college players to supplement the squad. That would be much more fun and interesting, IMHO. So many people seriously underestimate teamwork and overestimate sheer talent. Our collegians might be able to bring home the gold.

Pagar a bacon, ham and sausage supporter

Allen West has an article up where the Sgt Maj of the Army laments that the young ladies who join the Army and want to be fighting on the front lines don't have a lot of higher ranking role models. I guess the Sgt Maj forgot to mention that there aren't many transgender role models either. Or maybe that will be next week's article, after the military doctors decide that that the operations are medically essential for the good of the military.

May God bless Allen West !

Captain Hate

Did somebody mention Brazilian music?

https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLiNR7nOg_RSFrXlOMC46-9SCqOf8yeC2a

Beasts of England

Nice song list, caro!

Beasts of England

I've watched several hours of Olympic coverage so far and I think NBC is doing a better job than expected. Most of my viewing has been non-prime time, so maybe I'm missing the heart-tugging biopics and expected political asides.

Captain Hate

No disrespect to anyone's family members, friends, or trusted psychiatrist---but talk about (as a group) a bunch of crazy, clueless bleeding hearts, and that would be over 50 % of the people who go in to psychiatry.

I'm firmly convinced that children of shrinks enter the field to deal with the trauma of having been brought up by unbalanced parents.

buccaneer morgan

A lot of Colorado gold is involved in that judgement captain.

buccaneer morgan

The only time the machines can be hacked is at the moment they upload to headquarters.

Captain Hate

Hah, narc, that explains quite a bit.

At least the Olympics are spared Dick Enberg's human interest weepers that keep people from seeing any real athletic competition since he's much more appropriately doing the play by play for the Padres, a team nobody but TK knows exists.

JM Hanes

Clarice:

So far, the polls suggest he will lose too much ground among well-educated and nonwhite voters to win. But the diversity of the country in itself does not rule out a victory for Mr. Trump.
"I read this to say--yes, we are wrong on the demographics but it still won't matter. I think it will."

My basic point is that whether or not it matters largely depends on where the demographics have shifted, geographically. North Carolina could almost be a template for the kind of losses described above. We've got the highly educated Silicon Valley east in the "Research Triangle;" we've got a huge, reliably Democratic African American population, and an outsized number of illegal aliens with familial connections here. The numbers from that NC poll last week would certainly reflect a new reality on the ground, and if subsequent polling confirms such a substantive shift, I'll be considerably more optimistic about Trump's swing state prospects.

buccaneer morgan

Neoneocon has regretably gone #willing for red queen, for some time.

Jack is Back!

Those numbers from the data analyst at TCT only tell part one of the story. The most important part is "Turnout". And the Dems machine is very good at that and the Republicans not so much after W's 2004 model.

Does Trump have that kihnd of organization and tactical methodology to take those extra 7 million voters and get them to the polls? Well, he better becasue if he doesn't than all that analysis is wasted.

Truthbetold5

BM

Trump gave them cover to do so.

rich

>>>Missing white voters: drink!!

Posted by: Beasts of England | August 07, 2016 at 01:13 PM<<<

I don't understand why, when this point is brought up, it is met with such hostility. It seems uncontroversial actually.

Obama votes 2008: 69,498,516 votes 365 EV
Obama votes 2012: 65,915,796 votes 332 EV

(Most of the EV difference was IN and NC going for Romney in 2012.)

Turnout was down overall 3.3% and Obama was elected with his own vote total down 5.16%. The entire drop in turnout was due to voters not voting for Obama. Outside of the large drop in turnout due to World War 2, I couldn't find another election in which the incumbent won with fewer votes (Roosevelt's 3rd term was a comparable drop but vastly different situations), and outside of wars, it is difficult to find an election where overall turnout dropped regardless of winner. Sean Trende's postmortem of the 2012 disaster pointed all this out in his post-election hot takes.

this one was when the votes were still being counted

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106.html

He has another piece over there once the results were certified.

How would you explain the drop in Obama's drop in votes from 2008 to 2012?

JM Hanes

Beasts:

I'm not out to bang the "missing voters" drum. I'm just extrapolating from the stats under discussion that there are a bunch more white voters than most folks' models have included -- and that we're probably lucky Hillary is not going after them, because most of them are Democrats. Even that is something of an aside to my main point, as I suggested to Clarice, above. There's a lot of talk about upending historic assumptions, but rising demographic tides don't lift all electoral boats equally, and at the moment, the map looks more traditional than not to me.

Jack is Back!

How about that 58 by Jim Furyk earlier today at the Travelers? Had a putt on 18 for a 57.

buccaneer morgan

Tom cotton points out red queen may have actually outed pillar's source for the 3007 nie.

Threadkiller

Obama did not have to work so hard to win in 2012.

He only needed enough votes to beat loser Romney.

jimmyk

Feel free to elaborate, perfessor:)

I think you're mixing me up with George Clooney, happens all the time.

Seriously, if I've been on TV in the last 5 years it's news to me. But I want my royalty check.

At the moment I'm zipping down I-87, returning to NYC from a weekend in Lake Placid, so haven't been able to post too much.

clarice

JiB Trump just handled the guys who managed the Brexit campaign.

rich

How would you explain Obama's drop in votes from 2008 to 2012? [/fixed?]


>>>But in terms of interpreting elections, and analyzing the future, the substantial drop-off in the white vote is a significant data point. Had Latino and African-American voters turned out in massive numbers, we might really be talking about a realignment of sorts, although we would have to see if the Democrats could sustain it with someone other than Obama atop the ticket (they could not do so in 2010). As it stands, the bigger puzzle for figuring out the path of American politics is who these non-voters are, why they stayed home, and whether they might be reactivated in 2016 (by either party).<<<

from the article I linked.

clarice

*JIB, Trump just HIRED the guys who managed the Brexit campaign*

rich

that's clever TK ... Romney had modestly more votes that McCain. "They" had the fraud dialed in that well?

Threadkiller

They only needed more that Romney 2012, not Obama 2008, rich.

anonamom

There weren't a lot of women physicians in leadership positions ahead of me, but there were a whole lot of role models of fine, caring, intelligent physicians I could emulate.

It's incredibly sexist to assume a person needs the same anatomy as another to be their role model.

Threadkiller

In 1992 roughly 104 million votes were cast. In 1996 roughly 95 million votes were cast.

Who went missing? Were Clinton's numbers in 96 improved because Perot's numbers were down?

Perot was down almost 12 million votes from his 1992 bid and Clinton was up 2.5 million?

Who went where?? What happened???

Hispanics!!! Exit polls!!!!!

Captain Hate

The local weather report pointed out that August 11-13 could have the best meteor showers in 20 years.

clarice

Or the same ethnicity or religion--good is good. whther in literature or anything else.

anonamom

Meteor shower:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a22200/meteor-shower-of-the-decade/

anonamom

clarice, exactly!

Did you ever think we'd be here--back to as things were when I was a child? I thought we were at the point MLK had hoped for--where his children would be judged on the content of their character.

Instead, BLM wants us to be assessing people based on the color of their skin.
Will reparations be paid out based on skin tone? A little bit of something for Sicilians, at least if they get evaluated in August after a summer at the shore???

cheerleader

Diamond and Silk are stumping for Paul Nehlen.


JM Hanes

anonamom:

Share this with your pure friends who can't bear the thought of voting for Trump.

That kind of attitude can waylay even the most formidable list of talking points, before you even have a chance to get to it. I hate to see the understandably acid view of NeverTrumpers spill over onto everybody else who hasn't hitched themselves to Trump's wagon.

I actually think the biggest obstacle I face is that I've spent so much more time talking politics with like minded folks, that there's just too much ground to make up with people who start with very different assumptions and/or who aren't news junkies enough to have followed all the scandals & the players, etc. I should have started laying the groundwork a long time ago, and I'm paying the price now.


caro!

So glad to see you!

cheerleader

If Nehlen wins on August 9, the words "look squirrel" will be able to be replaced with "Ryan endorsement".

Frau Rutger Gefahrfeld

CH @ 2:02 - To quote the She-Devil, "Some of my best friends are the children of shrinks."

It takes a mountain of shrinkage to undo some of the damage.

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

That BI story on psychopaths may or may not have been subtly directed at Trump but each trait listed is the classic list of NPD/psychopath traits.
I used to work with a certain someone who would have scored a perfect 100%.

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Wilson/Plame