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October 09, 2017

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henry

They have nothing to burn but their credibility as an entertainment source, and accrued endorsement revenues that go with it.

pagar, a bacon, ham and sausage supporter

Could be first, probably not.

danoso

and it took how long for a single owner to grow a pair? Or is this a case of "Gee let's see if this will work"?

Bah, the bridges have been burned. Good riddance.

DebinGA

The lone Packer to stand during anthem w/hand over heart - Clay Matthews III ... Family history includes many NFL players

DebinGA

What does "We won't play" mean? The team will return to the locker room, pack up, and leave?

Threadkiller

The NFL certainly doesn't need anyone doing publicity stunts during opening ceremonies for fake gladiator games.

mockmook

Sure, the Left launches a culture war, Trump pushes back, and he is the one fanning the flames.

Porchlight

mockmook, it is like being friends with liberals. They are allowed to say whatever they want. You are allowed to agree or stay silent. Anything else you might say is labeled "argumentative" or "controversial."

Jane (Stand against the Coup)

Dr J, stay safe!

Appalled

Porchlight:

And just try being moderate in a conservative blog comment section. ;)

James D.

Porch, that's EXACTLY what it's like.

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

You might give it a try yourself, Appalled.

Marlene

Jane,did you have a terrible smell in your area the past couple of days? I read on our Next Door social media website that from Sarasota to Port Charlotte there was a strong smell of rotting vegetation. Some people thought that the plant debris from the hurricane being piled up started to ferment in the heat. I guess it was very stinky and covered large area.

jimmyk

a strong smell of rotting vegetation

Was Hillary visiting the west coast of Florida?

maryrose

Jenelle Hill suspended from ESPN for calling for a boycott of all things related to the Dallas Cowboys.

maryrose

And yet the Packers win the game.
Go figure.

Jack is Back!

marlene,

Red tide? It happens every few years and is bacterial.

We are getting the precursor to Nate. Lots of rain but still warm and, of course, humid.

My apologies to restarting the Monty Hall Problem in the last thread. It appears to be getting too much traction. LOL. You can change the dynamic but choosing among 2 after 1 of 3 is revealed cannot be 50/50 because one door is chosen.

If no door was chosen and Monty opened a door with a goat. Then you have a 50/50. But its 66.7% since one door was chosen.

Sorry for starting it all over again.

Threadkiller

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/donald-trump-columbus-day-proclamation-no-native-americans/2017/10/09/id/818520/

Marlene

Jack,I don't think it was red tide. We went on a boat ride last spring during a red tide episode and by the time we got to shore,I had a terrible sore throat and a cough.

Porchlight

So Alabama named their team after smelly bacteria waves? :)

The left is freaking because they are used to the right rolling over in the culture wars. The rollers-over are freaking too.

And Joe Sixpack cheers.

Trump didn't beat Curb Dive by being a dummy.

sbw

Boris, from previous threads, even reasonable people aren’t reasonable so much as they come to conclusions and then the smart ones check their work using reason.

Jack is Back!

marlene,

Yep that was red tide. If no running eyes and sore throat its not. But here in Southampton on Shinnecock Bay a few months back we had a big storm surge that pushed a lot of feeder fish into the bay and the canal. With changing currents and winds they ended up on our side of the bay making a huge stink among the mutli-million dollar properties on Meadow Lane. Could be similar.

maryrose

Cavuto lets loose on Colts taking a knee and their hypocrisy calling Pence's exit a stunt.The Left media Scarborough et al are getting thrashed by Cavuto.

maryrose

He even talks about the lack of Weinstein coverage.

DrJ

Jane,

To be clear, we have a couple of minor fires in the area. Putting these out is pretty routine, though surprises can happen.

Santa Rosa is abut a four hour drive from here. I used to live there, and love the town. The fires there appear to be really awful. The emergency crews are looking to save lives and not to protect structures. That's pretty unusual, particularly given the parts of town that are aflame.

News still is spotty, but this one looks really bad.

Appalled

Iggy:

Imagine a map of the US, mapped out according to political viewpoints

From your vantagepoint in Eastport Maine, my political residence in Upper Sandusky looks awafully close to California... (sort of like that famous New Yorker cartoon). But the political Californians I know may not put me in Eastport, but they think of me as being in a suburb of Bangor.

Porchlight

Terrible, DrJ.

maryrose

Warner Wolf says protest here in the NFL games is the wrong venue.

Jack is Back!

Good God, Warner Wolf is still alive and looks like he lives in Florida now. My old time favorite when living in DC. He and George Micheals. My daughter kept her horse at Michaels farm up under the shadow of Sugarloaf in the NW. CH knows the area.

Jack is Back!

Question for $64K. Why isn't Jack Kean part of the Trump administration. I think I saw something about his wife dying or in terminal care. But does anyone know?

boris

"they come to conclusions and then the smart ones check their work using reason"

Seems to me the 3 door Monte game is a good example were a counter intuitive puzzle can be trickier than common sense logic and fool even the smart ones.

Here both sides of the arguments are based on using reason. In this case one can easily test it empirically to determine one is correct and the other is not.

Jack is Back!

BTW, the math logic being used on Monty's puzzle is also being used on NORK's missles. Think about it.

Nork has a Nuke
Nork has a missle
Nork has an agenda

Now which one do you pick to attack and what are the odds that one of the remaining issues/actions is predictable?

Take your pick.

Extraneus

Sorry for starting it all over again.

Seems like a perfect topic to continue on the other thread. :-)

Miss Marple the Deplorable

http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/manufacturing-optimism-is-at-record-highs-as-are-other-optimism-indexes-under-trump/

Extraneus

The left is freaking because they are used to the right rolling over in the culture wars.

I love the sound of lefties whining in the morning.

They know they have to surrender, but it's just so unfair.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

TM,

The trip was planned for a long time, because Peyton Manning's jersey was being retired and a ststue dedicated in his honor in front of Lucas Stadium.

The wild card in this is whether anyone would kneel. The Colts did not, but the 49ers did (23 of them).

I do not see how Pence could have stayed and given tacit tolerance to it. I am glad he walked out, and I am a resident of Indy.

MJW

On the Monty Hall problem, perhaps this has already been said, but if not, I think there's a simpler way of looking at the problem.

If you originally choose a goat, then if you switch after Monty opens the other goat door, you'll win.

If you originally choose the car, then if you switch after Monty opens one of the goat doors, you'll lose.

So if you switch, you'll win if you originally choose a goat, and lose if you originally choose the car.

Since the odds of originally choosing a goat are 2/3, the chances of winning if you switch must also be 2/5.

Jack is Back!

2/5? Try again.

MJW

...you switch must also be 2/3.

Porchlight

I started the Monty Hall discussion so the blame's on me. :)

I still can't see where I'm wrong although empirically I know it's better to switch because simulations confirm it. But I'll have to live with it.

I appreciate all the smart discussion - I knew JOMers wouldn't disappoint.

RIP, Monty, and thanks.

rse

jimmy-you will appreciate this. http://behavioralscientist.org/behavioral-economists-now/

I had not seen when I referenced kahnemann earlier. It is his Think Fast and Slow incorporated into k-12 model but it all ties. Appreciate the link to herbert simon too as i know it's cybernetic, but I love it when insiders acknowledge the link too as someone told them overtly.

Marlene

One of Howie Carr's CT listeners texted him to let him know Jemelle Hill drives around Bristol in a Maserati. Howie thought Ms.Hill makes about $250K,she has to make more than that.

Jack is Back!

Thanks MJW. You're right and get an atta boy or atta girl from me depending on you're cis.

Porchlight

Thanks, MJW, that is helpful.

rse

iggy-this one talks about thaler's ties to sunstein. http://behavioralscientist.org/richard-thaler-wins-nobel-prize-economics/

henry

rse, that article pretty much says behavioral economics is about working backwards from the preferred policy. Toss in enough confusing survey data and bluff your way to power. Just as the "climate modelers" do in their field. Tells me "behavioral" is the marketing word for "fraudulent."

henry

The 4:39.

Jack is Back!

So, Porch, I come into the UT library and ask to check out Henk Tijms "Introduction to probability" I will get a "thank you and dont forget to bring the book back in 2 weeks":)

Davod

Corker's comment that having Tillerson. Kelly and McMaster there ensures that policy gets carried out. Who's policy. Maybe this is why we see so much of the previous policy being announced and then, if we are lucky, it gets put back on Trump's track.

Porchlight

I might let you have it for four weeks, JiB. :)

Extraneus

Alec Baldwin to deliver keynote speech at Iowa Democrats' fall gala

Buckeye

Only thing Columbus Day means to me is that I have to remember to wait an extra day to take the garbage to the curb.

boris

"I think there's a simpler way of looking at the problem"

I do like that way of describing it.

It has been asserted that the original choice has a 1/3 chance of winning the car and 2/3 chance of getting a goat. But some believe those odds change when Monte opens a goat door.

Your point is a better way of making the point that the odds are fixed at the instant the choice is made. If you chose the goat, then switching wins. If you chose the car, then switching loses.

The odds get calculated BEFORE Monte opens the door, which is the confuzzle element for some.

rse

henry-in 1968 the rockefeller foundation had a confab at bellagio that decided just that. They could use the law, public policy, and the social sciences to implement the vision of the marxist humanist society. It gave rise to the club of rome and so much else.

I not only have all the papers, I have read them. The father of the yale dean who resigned laid it out in a footnote to a 2006 book of his I have and I located all the papers. They are now giving out the econ award virtually every year to someone whose theories are a component of the backward mapping. They actually call it that and the same term is used in ed now.

mockmook

Just left my 'final' word on the Monty prob on the last thread...

Kevlar Kid

From the Columbus thread....

MM---> you said

"I do not think people carry psychological issues from their ancestry unless it is drummed into them as children, sort of the way the madrassas operate."

I can see your point, MM, but it isn't relevant to this discussion because it isn't what's happened in my life.

No one drummed anything into me as a kid. A madrassa? I think the kind of indoctrination you are referring to happens for real.

But that isn't what's happened in my family or in the tribal company I keep. It's just not so.

Have a look at this:

"At a recent meeting of members of
the TLDC, Rosemary Nelson spoke
passionately about intergenerational
grief and trauma.

She has seen her family and
community members struggle to overcome the
injustice and sadness that have been passed on
through generations.

Rosemary says what has happened to Native
people, from 300 years ago up to the present,
has had a tremendous effect on individuals,
families, and communities.

When a Native person is having a “difficult life,” he or she might not even think some of the reasons for it could have originated long ago.

“The loss of language,
traditions, and family was and is so huge. How
can we understand that?” asks Rosemary.

To help non-Native and Native people
understand the horrific effect of these losses,
Rosemary asks them, “Imagine that someone
takes away your holidays and traditions.

Youcan no longer celebrate Christmas, Easter, or
Thanksgiving. Imagine someone telling you
if you speak your own language, you will be
punished.

Further, imagine someone taking your
home away and making you move to a barren
piece of land.”

She asks people to imagine
what kind of mothers, fathers, or children they
would be if these things happened to them."

The speaker is Rosemary Nelson, a member of the Astariwi Band of Pit River Indians. She has served on the Tribal Leaders
Diabetes Committee (TLDC) for four and a half years as an Alternate representing the California Area.

Those are simple facts.

Just "getting over it" or some such bromide isn't going to cut it.

THere is a lot more work to do than that. And none of it involves sitting around having pity parties for one's self or with others.

As for your own cultural roots and the stories of hardship etc that your people have been through you're free to adapt and go forward however you want.

We've come to learn that there is a different kind of peace we need to make with ourselves and the past, a peace that doesn't involve a pat dismissal of the facts and equating alternatives with some kind of indoctrination or brainwashing.

I'm used to conversations about NDN people and our history going in this direction.

There's a certain conformity we NDNs run in to when we talk about such things with people of European descent. And it takes the form of your point of view.

Please don't mistake my straightforward approach to your comments as a dislike of you or your people. I am quite fond of you as far as it is possible to be with a person I've never met offline.

I think that was worth saying.

Peace.

Kev

mockmook
    The odds get calculated BEFORE Monte opens the door, which is the confuzzle element for some.

    Posted by: boris | October 09, 2017 at 04:54 PM

That sounds like part of the problem right there :)

Kevlar Kid

Hi Deb---

I am trying a new magnesium product recommended by my doctor--- it's called "CALM"... a powder available online from Amazon and other distributors....different flavors that mix well in water and juice.

I prefer the liquid form put out by Mother Earth Minerals.... i put about 3 eyedroppers worth in a pint of water or if I want to just get er done, a half tsp in that pint and chugger down.

Both are effective. The powder requires that I consume a lot of liquid with it and deal with a "flavor." I can put the drops in a half inch of water and be done with it.

Anyways... both work well.

Dave (in MA)

https://scontent.fnyc1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/22279507_10155116112244422_8414188425717979164_n.jpg?oh=13eff3ebd941767351e0a2910b176283&oe=5A3A68F3

Community standards.

Threadkiller

But knowing that Monte is going to reveal a goat 1 out of 1 times before the pick does not matter.

Essentially it is a 3 choice game that the host promises that he will make it a 2 choice game.

If he makes the guaranteed bad pick before the game starts it isn't that same as it is when he makes the guaranteed bad pick after the game starts.

Extraneus

Check out this Marsha Blackburn ad that Twitter shut down as too inflammatory and negative.

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/277889/

Amazing they'd go so far out on such an easily broken limb. Inflammatory and negative.

Clarice Feldman

I seriously am going to plug the next person who posts about the Monty Hall game. My pistolas are loaded and ready.

DebinGA

That's the info I was seeking, KK. TY

Jack is Back!

For John H if he shows up.

Giving "Always Hungry?" a try. We start day one tomorrow but having day 14 dinner tonight to give it a kick start. Thanks for the recommendation.

Since I have time on my hands") I have time for all the prep and I enjoy that.

Clarice Feldman

Or you could stick to a potatoes only diet and lose 110 lbs a year:http://metro.co.uk/2017/09/26/a-man-ate-only-potatoes-for-a-year-and-lost-110lb-6957611/

Texas Liberty Gal

I'm with Clarice - quit being so dang selfish and continue your goat/door conversation somewhere else. Maryrose where are you with your rules when we need you!!!!

Dave (in MA)

Oh, well.

Good luck Houston!

mockmook

Tk, your question regarding a certain topic is unclear. Maybe put a clearer one on the last thread? :)

Gentlejim

It appears as though the Monty discussion has gotten Clarice’s goat.

————seeking cover————

Dave (in MA)

Mønty Håll Game
MØnty HÅll Game

Miss Marple the Deplorable

kk,

If you follow along, Old Lurker provided a study on genetic memory, of which I was unaware.

However, I want to point out that what you described just now is not the genetic memory Old Lurker referenced. What you seem to be talking about is cultural memory, passed on from generation to generation.

This is a valid argument, but it is not the same as having a phobia about spiders because an ancestor was terrified by a large one 400 years ago, and it baked into your DNA as a survival instinct.

I do not discount the suffering of the native peoples who were here when the Europeans settled. Those were brutal times and your ancestors got the short end of the stick. The only thing I have to say about that is that we cannot be responsible for our ancestors, any more than you can be responsible for whatever transgressions your people did.

We are where we are. I am sorry that in earlier times people were unjust. The people in my family who got here first holed up in the North Carolina mountains so that the King's soldiers couldn't haul them back to England to be drawn and quartered. My Jewish great grandfather didn't get here until after the Civil war, and I daresay he wasn't interested in bothering native tribes.

The other side of the family didn't immigrate to the US until the 1920's.

As I said, this is a cultural point of view which I don't share and if your people are feeling this is important to talk about, that's fine. My people mostly talk about current stuff, probably because our ancestors left their old lives behind, bidding farewell to Europe, while your ancestors had to see their lands occupied, which gives a different point of view.

Kevlar Kid

Well, now that we know where Clarice ties up her goat.... just kidding.... i been scrollin on by

Miss Marple the Deplorable

I am with Clarice. You may have noticed I have not participated in THAT discussion.

And damn if ChiTown Lurker didn't send me a damned DIAGRAM about it!!

Let's get back to figuring out whether Harvey Weinstein was outed by his brother or one of Trump's consiglieres! THAT is the kind of stuff I like to read!

 narciso

Meanwhile it appears general Kelly was being tapped by the outgoing administration, it was going back to the transition period.

Kevlar Kid

"As I said, this is a cultural point of view which I don't share and if your people are feeling this is important to talk about, that's fine."

I think you're missing the point. It's more than "important to talk about, that's fine."

The work that Pomos are doing in the Clear Lake region is more than just "talk." It is "current stuff" at the same time that it has to do with the past.

But this seems to be lost on you.

I'll leave it there.

sbw

Whatsa matter, Clarice, somebody get your goat?

sbw

Sorry, I should have refreshed.

sbw

We've come to learn that there is a different kind of peace we need to make with ourselves and the past

Yeah, it’s called a future.

maryrose

1000 ISIS fighters surrender in Iraq.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Kevlar Kid,

I didn't mean to be offensive at all. I simply don't understand this. It isn't that I think I am superior. I am just different and I don't get it. Sorry.

maryrose

Why would they tap Kelly?
Samantha Power got the directive from Obama WH-tap them all!
I am being facetious here.

maryrose

Clarice:
You are reading my mind.
I laughed really hard at the pistolas reference.
You haven't had them out in a long time!

mockmook

Ok, now I put my FINAL final comment on the last thread...even a caveman can understand it :)

Gentlejim

Call me rude, crude, socially unacceptable or whatever, but I don’t think we should be taking any prisoners.

Old Lurker

I learned several things from the Monty Hall Problem as discussed here at JOM:

1. My brain, once lightning quick on math and probabilities when I was 20 is not as quick as it once was.

2. As accustomed as I am in thinking mine is the only way to think about a problem or an issue :-) , I must say the often different approaches to the right answer displayed here has been a tour d'force.

3. While #1 and #2 are both true for me, interestingly I found my brain backing up and rethinking not because the neurons were firing more slowly, rather when I was 20 I was so sure I was always right that I would speak up instantly and often BE right (or intimidate others into assuming I was). But over the 50 years (OK, 49), I came to encounter #2 often enough that, combined with a "fear" of being wrong which was not present at 20, more often than not, I instinctively arrive at an answer but then think it to death over and over. (That last is parallel to what that guy said about older people fearing a loss more than they favor a win of the same magnitude.)

Did that make any sense?

What fun it was!

Captain Hate

The George Michaels Sports Machine was the greatest. The local NBC affiliate used to broadcast it at 11:30 on Sundays followed by Night Music. That was back when I could drag into work on very little sleep.

Warner Wolf used to be great on one of the DC radio stations, maybe WTOP. Father H and I listened to him quite a bit.

mike in houston

In regards to the Monty problem, here is a funny story about game shows.

Back in the mid-sixties my mom was a contestant on a show called 'Eye Guess'. (see:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_Guess)
Before going to the taping she watched the show for a few weeks and said that if she reached the bonus round she had figured out the pattern of where they placed the stop, which would end the game. If you picked all the prizes before hitting the stop you won the car. Needless to say she was right and won all the prizes plus the car. When the car was delivered it turned out to be a white GTO convertible. I had just gotten my license and instantly became the cool kid when I was allowed to drive it to school. This didn't last long as my cousin borrowed it for his senior prom and wrapped around a telephone pole. No one was hurt but my parents decided to take the insurance money and buy a Chevy Nova. ..Sigh..

maryrose

Mike you are ok in your post.
OL:
Get ready to be shot by pistolas.

Porchlight

I love those 60s and 70s Chevy Novas, mike in houston. But that had to suck to lose the GTO.

Captain Hate

What if ISIS surrendered and the MFM refused to cover it? I kind of think that's happening now.

Thomas Collins

Monty's goats, cars and doors will be heard from in the future on JOM. That's my prediction. There will be references to it for a longer period of time than to Tom Brady's balls!

JimNorCal

Oh! If we have a Monty Problem comment we should go back one thread? In order to avoid being pistola-whipped?

Captain Hate

It's been a schtruggle not to be like DoT on this Monty Hall stuff. BUT I RESISTED!!

Extraneus

Damn, Mike. I had a 72 Nova. Great car until I was rear-ended and found myself with my head on the floor of the back seat and my feet touching the front seat roof, but it wasn't a GTO.

DebinGA

THAT is the kind of stuff I like to read!

I'd like to read that Oprah called HW a racist for not hitting on any AA females in "The Butler".

Jane (Stand against the Coup)

I know the answer JIB but I want the 64k first.

Marlene no weird smells here - I'm pretty sure I would have noticed.

Dr J, I'm glad it's that far away - just stay safe.

Extraneus

I'd like to read that Oprah called HW a racist for not hitting on any AA females in "The Butler".

lol

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Lindsey Graham‏Verified account @LindseyGrahamSC

Really enjoyed a round of golf with President @realDonaldTrump today.

President Trump shot a 73 in windy and wet conditions!

New conversation
Lindsey Graham‏Verified account @LindseyGrahamSC 1h1 hour ago

Replying to @LindseyGrahamSC @realDonaldTrump

How bad did he beat me? I did better in the presidential race than today on the golf course!

Great fun. Great host.

-peter

Clarice, always choosing violent means. Started when you threw that rock at a kid, didn't it? Just kidding, Clarice, just kidding.

And no one else remembers that cover of "Like a Rolling Stone?"

Miss Marple the Deplorable

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/10/09/california-wine-country-wildfires-turn-deadly-force-evacuations.html

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